Obama leads McCain in Florida for 1st time in poll

[Douglas Carpenter]

link:

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/politics/orl-poll1908jun19,0,7936812.story

"A new Quinnipiac University poll shows Democrat Barack Obama leading Republican John McCain in Florida for the first time. Until now, McCain has had the edge — by 2 to 16 points — in more than a dozen polls dating to September.

The poll shows Obama leading McCain 47 percent to 43 percent in Florida. He's also up by 6points in Ohio and 12 points in Pennsylvania. The margin of error in each is about 2.6 percentage points.

The breakdown

In Florida, Obama's lead is built on women (up 10 points over McCain), under-34 voters (up 18 points) and blacks (up a whopping 91 points). And he leads 47-37 among independents, a group supposed to be McCain's strength. White voters favor McCain 50-40.

Both men are seeing significant crossover support. About 11 percent of Republicans say they'll vote for Obama, while 12 percent of Democrats say they'll vote for McCain."

More than 75 percent of voters surveyed say they've made up their minds."

link:

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/politics/orl-poll1908jun19,0,7936812.story

[BrokenSocialScene]

1. If John McCain cant win FL...

FL is tailor made for John McCain to win... and if he cant run away with that state by 10%+ it does not bode well for the real battleground states like OH and VA where the demographics are not as favorable to the GOP.

[usregimechange]

3. Agreed, lots of old folks there but decent amount of other demos too

[BrokenSocialScene]

4. I dont need to tell you this...

But the DNC bloodbath over the delegates is going to be exploited by the GOP. Plus they have Crist in FL who will campaign like crazy for FL.

Luckily its not a must-win state at all, but making it close sends a clear message to the GOP about their chances this year.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

22. Point taken but remember that Obama hasn't campaigned in FL yet.

Grandpa McSame has. I think things will change as people get to know Obama, and the numbers show that he is improving among many key groups. All is not lost. Obama just needs to campaign there more and show who he is.

Also, the news is that he will seat 100% of the FL and MI delegates at the convention. That will help. :)

[Ravy]

7. Not going to be a good test this year....

The demographics do favor him, but off-shore drilling is an overriding topic and I think many will vote Democratic on that issue alone who otherwise might have voted for McCain. Crist was stupid to agree with McCain. If offshore drilling gets approved, then there is nothing in Florida standing in the way anymore. Crist should not have flipflopped on the issue and he could have saved McCain some votes on the issue by saying.. it should be approved federally, but it will never happen in Florida because I will block it.

[Fleshdancer]

2. speaking of FL.....

watching Recount reminded me of the 20K people that were purged from the voting list. Has that been corrected? I never heard anything about it during the '04 race.

Great news about this poll btw! :bounce:

[tiptoe]

10. In 2004 in FL the discrepancy between

exit poll and recorded vote was almost 4%.

How much more fraud might be attempted in Florida in 2008?

No early "small lead" is safe.

see "2008 POLLING ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS" State Model.

and "2004 POLLING ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS" table here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6382058&mesg_id=6382058

as well as "But there's a catch:"

[Fleshdancer]

15. thank you for the links

my earlier google hunting wasn't very successful. I love that I can always count on DUers for help. :hi:

[tiptoe]

18. "Florida elections were rigged for the last decade; I see no difference today...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=504539&mesg_id=504546

...caging, absentee ballots manufactured and lost, access to polls, registration lists, hacked DRE's, undervotes, butterfly ballots, hanging chads, crooked election supervisors, poll worker challenges, riots at election offices, crooked judges/courts, no meaningful investigations, manipulated primary dates...on and on

Obama better realize that a grass roots campaign, rallies, polls, and predictions are MEANINGLESS if there is no fair election. Only a few key states are needed to swing the electoral college while only a relatively few per cent of votes need to be altered in those key states.

Kerry and Gore 'won'. Neither occupied the White House."

-- Sancho*, June 19, 2008

*Interview with RFK Jr -- 2/21/2008

Resources and Articles -- Election Fraud News

Florida -- BradBlog articles
Florida-13 -- more BradBlog articles

2008 Election Model -- TruthIsAll   Updated frequently; includes ever-changing state-by-state & national 2008 projections and 2004 Election Model data as well
Florida: Further confirmation of a Kerry landslide


*for background video accessible on FF and IE6 browsers (i.e. non IE7), see here

[Ravy]

5. Obama has a really good chance in FL now...

with the drilling proposal by McCain.

[David Zephyr]

6. I like this Douglas Carpenter for posting such great news.

Thanks.

[Schema Thing]

8. Is it just me, or is this really fast

and w/o any real campaigning there, to speak of?

[TheDonkey]

11. wait until the convention until things blow up. But we'll have some bumps as well

repukes won't give up without going down in flames.

[BzaDem]

9. I bet McCain decided to release his oil drilling proposal because he thought he had FL in the bag.

Poor McCain didn't expect a poll the next day showing that even without the negative effect of his drilling proposal that is bound to occur during the next few days, he is losing FL. I bet McSame wishes he could take back his proposal now. Flop flip his flip flop.

[Douglas Carpenter]

12. even property developers and others who would tend to vote Republican who live in coastal regions

do not want oil platforms right off their cost. I don't think it would be easy to find ANYONE, especially property owners who live near the coast who wouldn't be livid at the thought of off shore drilling. And since even the supporters of off shore drilling agree that it would take a number of years before any real benefit could even theoretically help with oil prices, I think the Republicans are making an incredible political miscalculation. I cannot imagine what they were thinking!

[hokies4ever]

14. The best news is that Governor Crist endorsed McCain's drilling plan

Now McCain can't send Crist around Florida to win over those coastal voters. :rofl:

[seasat]

23. Yep, a position developers and environmentalists unify on is lethal to him.

Whoever runs John McCain's campaign is making Bob Shrum look like a genius (not that I'm complaining). If you bring the most powerful conservative force and a powerful liberal force in Florida together on an issue, you've screwed yourself.

[hokies4ever]

13. The poll should be taken in context

On one hand, it is a little Obama-favored since it represents the snapshot of voters' opinions right after he sealed the nomination and Hillary conceded. On the other hand, this poll will not illustrate the hit that McCain will take because of his off-shore drilling plan.

[opihimoimoi]

16. Obama gonna gain...The diff should be about 12 % + in Nov

[fujiyama]

17. Good news

It doesn't mean Obama will necessarily win FL (but he certainly has a good chance), but it does indicate that McCain will have to spend a good amount of money there.

And it reconfirms that FL still is a battleground. If McCain does end up having Lieberman as his VP, it will be very unlikely Obama will win it, otherwise he has a fighting chance.

[RNdaSilva]

19. Win Florida...go for 49.

Show a poll lead in West Virginia and it would be all over.

Still thinks it's going to be a landslide regardless, optimism.

Obama just announced...no public funds.

[RNdaSilva]

21. Awaiting MadFloridians take...

think he has a better pulse on the state of Florida.

I have a feeling that some stated red states are actually purple...time will tell.

From MSNBC...same poll as above:

Florida: Obama edges McCain 47 - 43 percent

Ohio: Obama tops McCain 48 - 42 percent

Pennsylvania: Obama leads McCain 52 - 40 percent

[davidpdx]

20. I hope he can win Florida

along with gains in other states, that will sink McCain's boat.

[bobw999]

24. Not sure I understand all this talk about Charlie being a popular governor

Even the republicans I talk to say he isn't the best.