6/18 Election Model: OBAMA NOW LEADING IN FL, EXPECTED EV JUMPS TO 350

[tiptoe]

2008 ELECTION MODEL
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation

TruthIsAll

Updated: June 18
     http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel.htm

Obama has pulled ahead in Florida in the latest Quinnipiac poll and increased his PA lead.
As a result, his expected electoral vote increased from 324 yesterday to 350 today.
His 2-party projected vote share has also jumped: from 52.3% to 52.8%.

If the election were held today, Obama would win the electoral vote by 350 – 188.
The State model projects that he would win 52.8% of the 2-party vote.
The National model projects indicates that he would win 52.9%.

Obama leads the latest state poll aggregate average by 46.2 – 42.7%.
He also leads the latest national poll aggregate by 46.8 – 43.0%.

The electoral vote is the average of a 5000 election trial Monte Carlo simulation.
Obama won all 5000 trials; therefore, there is a virtual 100% probability of winning the electoral vote

The model executes five scenarios of undecided voter allocation.
In the most likely base case, 60% of undecided voters were allocated to Obama.
In the worst case, 50% were allocated and Obama had 51.7%, 328 EV and a 99% win probability.

The latest polls indicate that these states will flip to Obama: CO, IA, MO, NM, OH, VA, NC, NV, FL (new)

But there’s a catch:

It’s called Election Fraud.
The Democratic True Vote is always greater than the Recorded Vote.

• Approximately 3–4 million Obama votes will be uncounted (70–80%).
  
• There will very likely be vote-switching at the DREs and central tabulators.
  
• The Democrats need a very heavy voter turnout to overcome the fraud.

Obama will probably need at least 54% of the True Vote (2-party) to win.

Now for the good news:

Obama should get the 54% — at a minimum.

• It’s only June and he is leading despite all the media-driven negatives from the primary.
• Bush is at 25% in the polls — and McCain supports his policies.
  
• His poll numbers vs. McCain can only go up as the focus turns to the election.

These graphs display the latest polls and projection trends:

•   Aggregate state poll trend
  
•   National 5-poll moving average projection
  
•   Latest battleground state polls
  
•   Electoral vote and win probability
  
•   Electoral vote and projected vote share trend
  
•   Undecided voter allocation impact on win probability
  
•   Battleground state win probabilities

Polling Data Sources
State Poll data:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/

National Poll data:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

Aggregate State and National Polls and Projections 
Undecided allocation effect on projected vote share, EV and win probability

 
 
6/18/2008
State
Aggregate
Poll
National
5-Poll
Average
State
2-party
Projection
National
2-party
Projection
   Monte Carlo Simulation
   Expected         Win
        EV               Prob

Obama
46.2               45.6               52.8               53.0               350              100.0

McCain
42.7               42.0               47.2               47.0               188                0.0



Undecided Voter Allocation %

 
 
BaseCase
Obama
50%               55%               60%               65%               70%

Trial Wins
4982              4997              5000              5000              5000


 

Projected Vote Share
Obama
51.7               52.3               52.8               53.4               53.9

McCain
48.3               47.7               47.2               46.6               46.1


 

Win Prob %
Obama
99.6               99.9              100.0              100.0             100.0

McCain
 0.4                 0.1                 0.0                 0.0                 0.0


 

Electoral Vote
Average
328                339                350                361                371

Median
331                341                351                362                372

Maximum
386                390                406                426                434

Minimum
255                249                282                291                314


 

95% Conf. Interval
Upper Limit
365                372                381                388                398

Lower Limit
291                307                320                333                344


 

States Won
 27                  27                  29                  29                  30

 

2008 POLLING ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS

State Model

 
 
State Polls Pre-Undecided Voter Allocation
 
Projection
Win
Trial
Flip to
 
Total

AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
       
CO
CT
DC
DE
FL
       
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
       
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
       
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
       
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
       
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
       
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
       
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
       
VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
       
EV
 538 
       
9
3
10
6
55
       
9
7
3
3
27
       
15
4
4
21
11
       
7
6
8
9
4
       
10
12
17
10
6
       
11
3
5
5
4
       
15
5
31
15
3
       
20
7
7
21
4
       
8
3
11
34
5
       
3
13
11
5
10
3
       
Obama
 46.2 % 
       	
33
42
39
39
50

48
47
90
50
47

41
61
39
60
38

45
37
41
41
51

52
53
45
50
44

43
39
36
42
48

47
47
51
43
38

48
38
46
52
53

39
34
31
39
27

63
45
55
37
48
40
 
McCain
 42.7 % 
       
59
50
50
48
39

42
44
9
41
43

51
31
52
31
47

38
47
53
50
38

39
30
42
43
50

42
47
52
44
43

39
43
34
45
44

42
52
38
40
38

48
51
58
52
62

29
44
37
45
40
53
      
Diff
 3.5 %  
      
(26)
(8)
(11)
(9)
11
 
6
3
81
9
4
 
(10)
30
(13)
29
(9)
 
7
(10)
(12)
(9)
13
 
13
23
3
7
(6)
 
1
(8)
(16)
(2)
5
 
8
4
17
(2)
(6)
 
6
(14)
8
12
15
 
(9)
(17)
(27)
(13)
(35)
 
34
1
18
(8)
8
(13)
       
BO EV
 344 
       




55

9
7
3
3
27


4

21


7



4

10
12
17
10


11



4

15
5
31



20

7
21
4







3
13
11

10

 
    
 	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
         
Obama
 52.8 % 
       
37.8
46.8
45.6
46.8
56.6

54.0
52.4
90.6
55.4
53.0

45.8
65.8
44.4
65.4
47.0

55.2
46.6
44.6
46.4
57.6

57.4
63.2
52.8
54.2
47.6

52.0
47.4
43.2
50.4
53.4

55.4
53.0
60.0
50.2
48.8

54.0
44.0
55.6
56.8
58.4

46.8
43.0
37.6
44.4
33.6

67.8
51.6
59.8
47.8
55.2
44.2
 
Probability
 100.0 % 
       
0.0
5.5
1.4
5.5
100.0

97.7
88.5
100.0
99.7
93.3

1.8
100.0
0.3
100.0
6.7

99.5
4.5
0.3
3.6
100.0

100.0
100.0
91.9
98.2
11.5

84.1
9.7
0.0
57.9
95.5

99.7
93.3
100.0
54.0
27.4

97.7
0.1
99.7
100.0
100.0

5.5
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.0

100.0
78.8
100.0
13.6
99.5
0.2
       
EV
 364 





55

9
7
3
3
27


4

21


7



4

10
12
17
10


11


5
4

15
5
31
15


20

7
21
4







3
13
11

10

    
       
Obama
  9  
 






Obama



Obama







Obama











Obama


Obama



Obama

Obama


Obama












Obama




    

        

AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA

CO
CT
DC
DE
FL

GA
HI
ID
IL
IN

IA
KS
KY
LA
ME

MD
MA
MI
MN
MS

MO
MT
NE
NV
NH

NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND

OH
OK
OR
PA
RI

SC
SD
TN
TX
UT

VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
National Model

10-Poll
Last Poll
Sample
 
 
 
5-poll Moving Average
Projection Moving Average

Trend
                          
Rasmussen
Gallup
ABC
COOK/RT
Zogby

CNN
CBS
USA/GALLUP
COOK/RT
Pew Research
Date
        
6/17
6/16
6/15
6/15
6/14

6/05
6/03
6/01
5/31
5/25
Size
              
3000 LV
2605 RV
--
880 RV
1113 LV

921 RV
930 RV
803 RV
802 RV
1242 RV
Obama
        
48
46
49
44
47

49
48
47
44
47
McCain
        
45
42
45
40
42

46
42
44
43
44
Spread
        
3 
4 
4 
4 
5 

3 
6 
3 
1 
3 
Obama
        
46.8
46.5
46.8
45.5
45.3

47.0
46.5
46.0
46.3
47.3
McCain
        
43.0
42.3
42.0
41.3
41.3

43.8
43.3
44.3
43.3
41.8
Obama
        
52.9
53.3
53.5
53.5
53.4

52.6
52.7
51.9
52.6
53.9
McCain
        
47.1
46.8
46.5
46.6
46.7

47.5
47.4
48.2
47.5
46.2

 
 

 

Reviewing the 2004 Election Model

The final pre-election state polls matched the pre-election national polls.

Kerry led the final pre-election state poll weighted average by 47.7- 47.0%.
He also led the final national 18-poll average by 47.3 - 46.9%.

The weighted average state projection closely matched the national.
Kerry won the state projection with 51.8% of the 2-party vote and 337 electoral votes.
He also won the national projection with 51.6% of the 2-party vote.

Exit Pollsters Edison-Mitofsky released their 2004 Evaluation report in Jan. 2005.

• It indicated that Kerry won the unadjusted (WPD) aggregate state exit polls by 51.8–47.2%.
  
• The 12:22am National Exit Poll update indicated that Kerry won by 51.4–47.6%.
  E-M stated that respondents were randomly selected and that the margin of error was 1.0%.

Professional pollsters allocate undecided voters in every election.

• The majority are allocated to the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular.
  Bush had a 48% approval rating on Election Day.
  There was a strong 0.87 correlation between Bush monthly approval and his poll numbers.
  
• The Gallup Poll allocated 90% of undecided voters to Kerry. Harris and Zogby gave him 67-80%.
  The Election Model final base case projection allocated 75% of undecided voters to Kerry.

The Election Calculator Model
The Election Calculator indicates Obama will win the True Vote in a 71-59m landslide (54–45%).

The 2004 True Vote was the basis for the calculation.
Kerry won the 2004 True Vote in a 67–57m landslide (53.2–45.4%).

2000 voter turnout in 2004 was total votes cast in 2000 less mortality times the turnout percentage.
In 2000, the Census reported 110.8m votes cast, but only 105.4m were recorded.
In 2004, the Census reported 125.7m votes cast, but only 122.3m were recorded.

The Calculator determines the True Vote based on the estimated shares of returning voters.

• The 12:22am National Exit Poll “How Voted” category is a reasonable best case estimate.
  
• Kerry won 57% of new voters and others who did not vote in 2000.
  He won 91% of returning Gore voters and 10% of Bush voters.
  He captured 64% of returning Nader voters. Bush had 17%.

2004 Pre-election and Exit Poll Confirmation
Final pre-election polls showed Kerry and Bush in a virtual tie.
The unweighted state average favored Bush, but Kerry led the aggregate weighted average.
The pre-election aggregate state polls closely matched the national pre-election poll average.

A few naysayers maintain that polling analysis cannot prove that the 2004 election was stolen.
They claim that the Final National Exit Poll was correct and the unadjusted exit polls were wrong.
The Final National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote using impossible weightings.
After undecided voters were allocated, the pre-election polls matched the unadjusted exits.

Simple MATH proves the Final NEP inflated the number of returning Bush voters by 6.6m.

• The Final indicates that Bush 2000 voters comprised 43% (52.6m) of the 2004 electorate (122.3m).
  But Bush only had 50.5m recorded votes in 2000.
  • Voter mortality tables show that approximately 2m Bush 2000 voters died prior to 2004.
    And about 2.5m Bush 2000 voters did not vote in 2004, assuming that 95% of 48.5m voted.
    Therefore, only 46.0m Bush 2000 voters could have returned to vote in 2004.
    But according to the Final National Exit Poll, which is always forced to match the (official) recorded vote count, 52.6m returned. That is a mathematical impossibility.
    
  • Bush needed 16 million new voters to achieve his 62m recorded vote.
    According to the Election Calculator, he had 57m, an 11m increase.
    Where did Bush find 16 million new voters?
    
    Kerry won the final 5m recorded votes by 54.3–45.7%.
    These were late votes recorded a few days after the election.
    They consisted primarily of absentee and provisional ballots.
    
    Bush won the 2004 recorded vote by 62.0 - 59.0m (50.7- 48.3%) and had 286 EV.
    Of 3.4 million uncounted votes, approximately 2.6m were for Kerry - a net 1.8m margin.
    Bush’s 3.0m margin is thus reduced to 1.2m – and that’s before vote-switching.

To believe that Bush won, one must believe that the pre-election and unadjusted exit polls were wrong.
And also believe that the Final Exit Poll, although mathematically impossible, was accurate.

Some argue that exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote can't prove that fraud occurred.
But that's not a valid criticism. The question should be:

Do the Exit polls, in conjunction with the Pre-election and Approval polls, indicate that fraud was likely?

THE 2004 ELECTION MODEL

Projection
EV
Vote%
Prob%

Kerry
337                51.80              99.90

Bush
201                48.20               0.10



Undecided Voter Allocation %

 
 
BaseCase
Kerry
60%               67%               75%               80%               87%

Trial Wins
4901              4972              4995              4997              4999


 

Projected 2-party %
Kerry
51.02             51.38             51.80             52.07             52.43

Bush
48.98             48.62             48.20             47.93             47.57


 

Win Prob %
Kerry
98.02             99.44             99.90             99.94             99.98

Bush
 1.98               0.56               0.10               0.06               0.02


 

Electoral Vote
Average
320                328                337                343                352

Median
322                329                338                345                353

Maximum
379                388                399                405                412

Minimum
211                237                223                243                254


 

95% Conf. Interval
Upper Limit
361                368                376                382                389

Lower Limit
278                288                298                305                315


 

National 18-Polls
Vote% 
50.73             51.15             51.63             51.92             52.34

Prob% 
97.55             99.90            100.00           100.00           100.00


 

States Won
 24                   25                   26                  26                  27

 
 
2004 POLLING ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS
 
State Pre-Election polls, Projections, Exit polls and Recorded vote

 
 
 
 
Pre-Election Polls
(Pre Undecided Voter Alloc)
 
 
Projected
(After 75% UVA)
 
 
State Exit Poll
(Based on WPE)
 
 
Recorded Vote
( Official Vote Count )
 
 
SEP – Proj
 
 
SEP – Vote
 
 
Exit Poll
 
Projected
EV
 
SEP
EV
 
 
Proj – SEP
 
 
Proj – Vote
 
 
SEP – Vote
State
Wtd Avg
   
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
   
CO
CT
DC
DE
FL
   
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
   
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
   
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
   
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
   
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
   
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
   
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
   
VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
EV
  538  
    
9
3
10
6
55
   
9
7
3
3
27
   
15
4
4
21
11
   
7
6
8
9
4
   
10
12
17
10
6
   
11
3
5
5
4
   
15
5
31
15
3
   
20
7
7
21
4
   
8
3
11
34
5
   
3
13
11
5
10
3
Kerry
 47.7 % 
   
39
30
45
46
49
   
47
52
78
45
50
   
42
45
30
54
39
   
50
37
39
40
50
   
54
64
52
52
42
   
44
36
32
49
47
   
50
49
57
47
35
   
50
28
50
50
56
   
42
42
47
37
24
   
53
47
52
45
51
29
Bush
 47.0 % 
       
57
57
50
48
42
       
48
42
11
38
47
       
52
45
59
42
58
       
44
60
56
48
39
       
43
27
45
44
51
       
49
57
61
49
47
       
42
49
39
50
55
       
47
61
44
45
36
       
55
52
50
59
69
       
40
51
44
49
44
65
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Kerry
 51.0 % 
     
41.3
39.0
48.0
49.8
55.0
     
50.0
55.8
85.5
57.0
51.5
     
45.8
51.8
37.5
56.3
40.5
     
53.8
38.5
42.0
48.3
57.5
     
55.5
70.0
53.5
54.3
46.5
     
48.5
40.5
36.5
49.8
50.8
     
55.3
49.8
59.3
48.5
41.8
     
51.5
35.5
53.8
53.0
61.3
     
43.5
45.8
48.5
39.3
28.5
     
57.5
47.8
54.3
48.8
54.0
32.8
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Kerry
 51.8 % 
     
42.5
40.3
46.7
44.8
59.8
     
50.1
62.2
90.9
61.3
50.9
     
42.5
56.4
30.8
57.0
40.0
     
50.7
37.5
39.6
44.1
55.5
     
60.0
64.8
54.4
55.7
45.8
     
49.0
37.7
36.7
52.9
57.0
     
57.8
52.9
64.1
49.2
32.9
     
54.2
33.5
53.0
55.3
61.8
     
45.9
36.3
42.8
40.6
29.2
     
66.4
49.4
57.0
40.3
52.0
31.2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Kerry
 48.3 % 
     
36.8
35.5
44.4
44.5
54.3
     
47.0
54.3
89.2
53.3
47.1
     
41.4
54.0
30.3
54.8
39.3
     
49.2
36.6
39.7
42.2
53.6
     
55.9
61.9
51.2
51.1
40.2
     
46.1
38.6
32.7
47.9
50.2
     
52.9
49.0
58.4
43.6
35.5
     
48.7
34.4
51.3
50.9
59.4
     
40.9
38.4
42.5
38.2
26.0
     
58.9
45.5
52.8
43.2
49.7
29.1
Bush
 50.7 % 
     
62.5
61.1
54.9
54.3
44.4
     
51.7
43.9
9.3
45.8
52.1
     
58.0
45.3
68.4
44.5
59.9
     
49.9
62.0
59.6
56.7
44.6
     
42.9
36.8
47.8
47.6
59.0
     
53.3
59.1
65.9
50.5
48.9
     
46.2
49.8
40.1
56.0
62.9
     
50.8
65.6
47.2
48.4
38.7
     
58.0
59.9
56.8
61.1
71.5
     
38.8
53.7
45.6
56.1
49.3
68.9
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Diff
  0.8 %  
      
1.2
1.3
(1.3)
(5.0)
4.8
      
0.1
6.4
5.4
4.3
(0.6)
      
(3.3)
4.6
(6.7)
0.8
(0.5)
      
(3.0)
(1.0)
(2.4)
(4.1)
(2.0)
      
4.5
(5.2)
0.9
1.5
(0.7)
      
0.5
(2.8)
0.2
3.2
6.3
      
2.5
3.2
4.8
0.7
(8.9)
      
2.7
(2.0)
(0.8)
2.3
0.5
      
2.4
(9.4)
(5.7)
1.4
0.7
      
8.9
1.7
2.8
(8.5)
(2.0)
(1.5)
Diff
  3.6 %  
     
5.7
4.8
2.3
0.3
5.5
     
3.1
7.9
1.7
8.0
3.8
     
1.1
2.4
0.5
2.2
0.8
     
1.5
0.9
(0.0)
1.9
1.9
     
4.1
2.9
3.2
4.7
5.7
     
2.9
(0.9)
4.1
5.1
6.8
     
4.9
3.9
5.7
5.7
(2.6)
     
5.5
(1.0)
1.7
4.4
2.4
     
5.0
(2.1)
0.3
2.4
3.2
     
7.5
4.0
4.2
(2.9)
2.4
2.2 
WPE
  7.1 %  
      
11.3
9.6
4.6
0.5
10.9
      
6.1
15.7
3.4
15.9
7.6
      
2.2
4.7
1.0
4.4
1.5
      
3.0
1.7
(0.1)
3.8
3.8
      
8.1
5.8
6.3
9.3
11.3
      
5.8
(1.8)
8.1
10.1
13.6
      
9.7
7.8
11.4
11.3
(5.2)
      
10.9
(1.9)
1.8
8.8
4.7
      
10.0
(4.2)
0.5
4.8
6.4
      
15.0
7.9
8.4
(5.8)
4.7
4.3
Kerry
  331  
      
     
     
     
6
55
     
9
7
3
3
27
     
     
4
     
21
     
     
7
     
     
     
4
     
10
12
17
10
     
     
     
     
     
5
4
     
15
5
31
     
     
     
20
     
7
21
4
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
3
     
11
     
10
     
Kerry
  325  
    
    
    
    
    
55
    
9
7
3
3
27
    
    
4
    
21
    
    
7
    
    
    
4
    
10
12
17
10
    
    
    
    
    
5
4
    
15
5
31
    
    
    
20
    
7
21
4
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
3
    
11
    
10
    
 
< 2.5%
   26   
    
yes
yes
yes
    
    
    
yes
    
    
    
yes
    
    
    
    
yes
yes
    
    
yes
yes
    
yes
    
    
    
yes
yes
yes
    
yes
    
yes
    
    
    
    
    
    
yes
    
    
    
yes
yes
yes
yes
    
yes
    
    
yes
yes
    
    
yes
    
    
yes
yes
> 2.5%
   26   
    
yes
yes
yes
yes
    
    
yes
    
    
yes
yes
    
yes
    
yes
    
    
    
yes
    
    
yes
yes
    
    
yes
    
yes
yes
    
    
    
yes
    
    
    
    
    
    
yes
yes
    
yes
    
    
    
    
    
yes
yes
yes
    
yes
    
    
    
    
yes
yes
yes
> 2.5%
   27   
    
yes
yes
    
    
yes
    
yes
yes
    
yes
yes
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
    
yes
    
yes
yes
yes
    
yes
yes
yes
yes
    
    
yes
    
    
yes
    
    
yes
    
    
    
yes
    
yes
yes
yes
    
    
    

 

The Election Model Final 18 National Pre-Election Polls (9RV, 9LV)
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

   
 
Sample
Poll
Final Poll
 
2-party
 
75 % UVA Projected
 
5-Poll Moving Average
   Election Model
   18 National Polls
    
    AP
    Time
    LAT
    ICR
    Nwk
 
    Pew
    ARG
    ABC
    NBC
    Gallup
 
    Dem Corp
    FOX
    CBS
    TIPP
    Econ
 
    Marist
    Zogby
    Harris
Date
Average
        
20-Oct
21-Oct
24-Oct
26-Oct
29-Oct
 
30-Oct
30-Oct
31-Oct
31-Oct
31-Oct
 
31-Oct
31-Oct
1-Nov
1-Nov
1-Nov
 
1-Nov
2-Nov
2-Nov
Size
 1720 
      
976
803
1698
817
1005
 
2408
1258
3511
1014
1866
 
1018
1400
1125
1284
2903
 
1166
1200
5508
Type
     
     
LV
LV
RV
RV
RV
 
RV
LV
RV
LV
RV
 
LV
RV
RV
LV
RV
 
LV
LV
LV
Kerry
 47.28 %
      
49
46
48
44
45
 
46
49
48
47
48
 
48
48
46
44
49
 
49
47
50
Bush
 46.89 %
      
46
51
47
46
48
 
45
48
47
48
46
 
47
45
47
45
45
 
48
48
47
 
Kerry
 50.21 % 
       
51.6
47.4
50.5
48.9
48.4
 
50.5
50.5
50.5
49.5
51.1
 
50.5
51.6
49.5
49.4
52.1
 
50.5
49.5
51.5
Bush
 49.79 % 
    
48.4
52.6
49.5
51.1
51.6
 
49.5
49.5
49.5
50.5
48.9
 
49.5
48.4
50.5
50.6
47.9
 
49.5
50.5
48.5
Diff
 0.41 % 
    
 3.2
-5.2
 1.1
-2.2
-3.2
 
 1.1
 1.0
 1.1
-1.1
 2.1
 
 1.1
 3.2
-1.1
-1.1
 4.3
 
 1.0
-1.1
 3.1
 
Kerry
 50.90 %
      
52.0
47.5
51.0
50.8
49.5
 
52.0
50.5
51.0
50.0
51.8
 
51.0
52.5
50.5
51.5
52.8
 
50.5
50.0
51.5
Bush
 48.10 %
      
47.0
51.5
48.0
48.3
49.5
 
47.0
48.5
48.0
49.0
47.3
 
48.0
46.5
48.5
47.5
46.3
 
48.5
49.0
47.5
 
Kerry
 50.88 %
      
52.0
49.8
50.2
50.3
50.2
 
50.2
50.8
50.8
50.6
51.1
 
50.9
51.3
51.2
51.5
51.7
 
51.6
51.1
51.3
Bush
 48.12 %
      
47.0
49.3
48.8
48.7
48.9
 
48.9
48.3
48.3
48.4
48.0
 
48.2
47.8
47.9
47.6
47.4
 
47.5
48.0
47.8

 

[TheDonkey]

1. good good good

[Laura PourMeADrink]

2. Wow. You rock! I know how much time this must have taken to

put this together. Bravo! It's lookin real good for him! And just think ....we haven't even gotten
the boost yet of the convention and of a great running mate. These are two things McPain won't
get a boost from - hell - there is no republican that would boost a ticket. And what's he going
to do to motivate at the convention? mass scare hysteria? horrible speaker...

[Blondiegrrl]

3. Oops. Wrong place. delete n/t

WOW. Tennessee has even more idiots than my home state of West Virginia.

Thanks, Tennessee! I feel better now.

[Blondiegrrl]

4. McCain's runningmate: Rumor has it that he's going to

dig up Ronald Reagan. Not only will McSame have the advantage of sharing the ticket with a popular conservative (popular among fellow conservatives, I mean), he'll also look much younger and healthier in comparison to Reagan.

:evilgrin:

[Laura PourMeADrink]

5. haha - I was just thinking he needed God to run with him. No matter

what way you look at it - being for the war and having a f'd up economy - the can't win.

[tiptoe]

9. worth it!

...and thanks.

[tiptoe]

6. 6/19 summary update: 0.04% difference between the state & national models! (independent poll sets)

2008 ELECTION MODEL
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation

TruthIsAll

Updated: June 19**

Aggregate State and National Polls and Projections

 
 
6/19/2008
State
Aggregate
Poll
National
5-Poll
Average
State
2-party
Projection
National
2-party
Projection
   Monte Carlo Simulation
   Expected         Win
        EV               Prob

Obama
46.3               46.8              52.86              52.90               350              100.0

McCain
42.8               43.0              47.14              47.10               188                0.0

 

** Independent state and national poll sets
** Both models assume a base case 60% Undecided Voter Allocation to Obama

 

[phrigndumass]

7. K/R for great data!

:thumbsup:

[tiptoe]

8. Sancho lays out for Obama the election fraud reality in FL & elsewhere (i.e. the "catch" in the OP):

Florida elections were rigged for the last decade; I see no difference today...

caging, absentee ballots manufactured and lost, access to polls, registration lists, hacked DRE's, undervotes, butterfly ballots, hanging chads, crooked election supervisors, poll worker challenges, riots at election offices, crooked judges/courts, no meaningful investigations, manipulated primary dates...on and on

Obama better realize that a grass roots campaign, rallies, polls, and predictions are MEANINGLESS if there is no fair election. Only a few key states are needed to swing the electoral college while only a relatively few per cent of votes need to be altered in those key states.

Kerry and Gore "won". Neither occupied the White House.

-- Sancho, June 19, 2008

 

source and reference links here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6383315&mesg_id=6383866