WP, pg1: In Illinois, Clues to Obama's Electability; Courting of Rural Areas Began in '96

[DeepModem Mom]

In Illinois, Clues to Obama's Electability
Courting of Rural Areas Began in '96
By Alec MacGillis
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, June 15, 2008; A01

....As Sen. Barack Obama emerges as the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, worries linger in his party over whether he can improve on his poor showing among many rural and blue-collar voters in the primaries. Clues to that question lie here, outside metro Chicago, in a 400-mile-long swath of corn and soybean fields that, in the coal country of its southern reaches, shares more with Kentucky and Missouri than Chicago.

Obama's courting of the region began soon after he was elected to the legislature in 1996. Southern Illinoisans interpreted the visits as a sign that he was already thinking about a future run for statewide office, but they also served as a self-education in the middle-American milieu that his Kansan grandparents hailed from but that he knew little of, having grown up in Hawaii and Indonesia and spent his adult years in big cities. Before mostly white audiences, Obama would joke about his name -- rhyming it with "yo mama" -- and test out his message about getting past divisions to solve problems.

Obama's advisers have pointed to his success in winning over "downstate" Illinoisans as a sign of his electability, but political analysts question the claim. Obama lost most of downstate Illinois in his Democratic primary in 2004, and his big win in the general election later that year came against Alan Keyes, a black conservative with a Maryland address. In this year's primary, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) beat Obama in southern Illinois' struggling coal counties, highlighting the same weakness Obama showed in the coal regions of West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Kentucky.

"He certainly has shown a good amount of reach into downstate and southern Illinois, but . . . it has been overstated," said Michael Lawrence, director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University....

***

In the state legislature, Obama befriended rural lawmakers such as Sen. Gary Forby, a conservative Democrat and contractor from a coal county. "We're down-to-earth people, and Barack was down-to-earth people, too," Forby said last week. "What I liked about him was the way he was brought up, that he had never had anything gave to him." Forby is sure that rural Americans will agree: "If people could just talk to him for a few minutes, I don't think there will be an issue."...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/14/AR2008061400889_pf.html

[Cha]

1. Well, we do know

that Obama will keep trying. Progress is on his side.

[genna]

2. The question is does he stand a chance with these voters? If he does, then he can win.

Against Clinton this year, Obama prevailed in most of his state's farm country, paralleling his strong performance in farm states such as Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska. But even in southern Illinois, where Clinton won 14 counties, Obama has acquired a basic familiarity that he still lacks in key swing states such as Ohio, where it is easy to find voters who voice false rumors about his religion or his patriotism.

For one thing, he prevailed against Clinton in Chester, a former coal town of 7,800 whose economy now relies on a prison and mental health facility, with the only major remaining private enterprise a company that makes cake mix and microwave popcorn, and tourist business generated by Chester's status as the home of "Popeye." Outside a grocery store, June Cash, the wife of a retired minister, said she preferred Clinton but would back Obama over McCain.

"I still don't know if he's got what it takes to run this country," she said. But, she added, "I don't want the same thing we've been having."

Will Harris, an auto mechanic, has come around to Obama. "I'm sick of the lobbying and bull crap in Washington," he said. "I feel like he's someone who would fight for a small-business owner like me instead of a bunch of lobbyists. I hope I'm right."

I think the news media's point is that he can't get most or all. He doesn't need most or all. He needs at least 45%, maybe 40%.

I'd say he can do that.

[DeepModem Mom]

3. That's right -- he needs to reach a certain level. And those last two quotes...

were very encouraging.

[tritsofme]

4. 2004 was in no way indicative of his likely performance as a candidate.

And that is the only time he has faced voters that were not located only in the South Side of Chicago, a place where the GOP is extinct.

He faced a vanity candidate that no one supported, and racked up a huge landslide in already Democratic Illinois.

If he faced a serious GOP contender in 2004, he likely wouldn't have broken 60%, still quite an accomplishment, but the 70 or 80% he racked up against Keyes would not have materialized.

[genna]

5. The issue is whether he can get enough of nontraditional Democrats to vote for him so he can win.

Downstate Illinois is similar to the kind of voter he needs to get enough of. Does he need 60% to win?

No, he just needs 51%.

The Senate race is not akin to a presidential race. If it was, Kerry and Gore would be president. That being said, what are your concerns?

[tritsofme]

6. My concern was that they were trying extrapolate the results of the 2004 race into something

meaningful.

Which they really aren't.

[democrattotheend]

7. She only won a few of the Southern-most counties

He won plenty of counties in downstate Illinois. Look at the map.

[loyalsister]

8. Missouri chooses.....

The last time Missouri did not pick the "official winner" it picked the candidate from Illinois. Adlai Stevenson in 1956.

Missouri is more of a "weathervane" than a "bellweather" state. It tends to go with the popular trends.
The St. Louis region tends to dominate.

St. Louis region will decide who’s elected president

http://www.stltoday.com/blogzone/political-fix/political-fix/2008/06/slay-st-louis-region-will-decide-whos-elected-president/

Obama carried Missouri in the primary by a small margin. Rural voters here do respond to Obama. I think he will do well here and it will be a close election. It will be close, but it is a state worth fighting for.