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4themind Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-10-08 11:30 AM
Original message
NYT:"Threatining Iran"
<http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/10/opinion/10tue1.html>
Interesting editorial on increasing rhetoric from Israel in regards to Iran. What effect do you think a pre-election Iran strike from Israel would have on November? Do you think this is a real possibility? Perhaps they perceive that if obama is elected they'll have less overt support to do such an action for the foreseeable future, so they'll strike before that, with the support of President bush presumably (who might also see it as a boon for McCain)? Just some "what-if's" but what are your thoughts.
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theoldman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-10-08 11:38 AM
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1. The Israelis know that they will not get the same support from
Obama as they got from Bush. The question, however, is whether the Israelis really think that Iran is an immediate threat. Only the Shadow knows.
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TexasObserver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-10-08 11:44 AM
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2. Do Bush, Lieberman, and Likud want to attack Iran?
The answer is YES, and they know if they don't do it this year, it won't happen under Obama.

I am very concerned that Israel will attack Iran, and try to force the US into a conflict this year, with Bush only too willing to go along. They want to make Iran an issue for this year's elections.
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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-10-08 11:49 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. And they want to attack because
of oil and the military machine. It's crazy..we've got crazy people who want to bomb other oil rich countries.
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TexasObserver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-10-08 11:54 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. Who profits from war in the oil rich areas? Who profits from war?
Bush-Cheney-Halliburton-Blackwater-Blackstone-GE-Carlyle-Mobil-Exxon-BP

etc.
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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-10-08 12:05 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. Oil men took over our country
and they started war in an oil rich country and want to bomb another with the help of our corporatewhoremedia again. Sounds like tired Hollywood cliche but it's the reality of our country.
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Hugabear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-10-08 12:07 PM
Response to Reply #2
6. Lieberman is such a fucking tool - he absolutely disgusts me
I, for one, am glad that he's no longer attaching that (D) after his name. The man has spent so much time kissing Bush's ass over the past eight years, it's absolutely pathetic.
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applegrove Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-10-08 12:11 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. I am getting sick of him too. I had sympathy for Lieberman at first. Not any more.
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Douglas Carpenter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-10-08 12:15 PM
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8. Israel doesn't have enough long range bombers to carry out a massive sustained attack against Iran
Edited on Tue Jun-10-08 12:25 PM by Douglas Carpenter
The IAF is equipped for such an ability against much closer neighbors. Iran is about a thousand miles away. And given the massive deep-earth tunneling system the Iranians have developed, probably with North Korean assistance - it is highly doubtful that air power alone could neutralize or significantly degrade most perceived threats. In the case of Iran it is not simply a matter of knocking out a reactor or hitting a few key sites. Their system is considerably more complex than that with much harder to locate targets with many deeply buried underground.

Furthermore if Israel is directly involved in initiating such attacks, Israeli initiation would make it politically improbable if not impossible, for the United States to get the Gulf States on board if the U.S. were to get involved - This would be an absolute necessity if U.S. were to carry out the kind of massive sustained campaign required to neutralize the perceived Iranian threat and to significantly degrade their nuclear program.

As much as most Gulf Arabs fear and loathe the Iranians, they have no desire to put themselves in the direct line of fire from Iranian retaliation - which they do indeed have the ability to carry out in a very big way. Although Iranian weaponry is antiquated by Western standards..they have lots and lots and lots of short and medium range missiles - which are deeply embedded in hostile terrain - and very difficult to neutralize - that are more than capable of wrecking a great deal of havoc and carnage on the oil infrastructure in the Gulf States - which are just across a relatively modest body of water from Iran.

to quote from the NYT article above:

Unlike in 1981, when Israel destroyed Iraq’s nuclear reactor at Osirak, there is no single target. A sustained bombing campaign would end up killing many civilians and still might not cripple Iran’s nuclear program. Tehran also has many frightening ways to retaliate. And even Arab states who fear Iran shudder at the thought of America, or its ally Israel, bombing another Muslim country and the backlash that that could provoke.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/10/opinion/10tue1.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

Escalating oil price on the world market does create a certain degree of deterrence against such an attack. It is probable that oil prices would almost certainly shoot up to $300 a barrel within one week. It is also quite possible, in fact one could say probable, that oil extraction, refinement and transport out of the Gulf would be greatly crippled for a long, long time thus creating a REAL and a likely long term economic crisis for the whole world that would almost certainly last for several years perhaps even decades

"I think of war with Iran as the ending of America's present role in the world. Iraq may have been a preview of that, but it's still redeemable if we get out fast. In a war with Iran, we'll get dragged down for 20 or 30 years. The world will condemn us. We will lose our position in the world."

Zbigniew Brzezinski

http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2006/07/yellowcake200607?currentPage=11
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