Why Obama Will Win SC - Op-Ed from The State

[alteredstate]

Sun, Jun. 08, 2008

Why Obama will win South Carolina
By PHIL NOBLE - Guest Columnist

Most pundits and even some senior Democratic Party officials in our state have said Sen. Barack Obama doesn’t have a prayer of carrying South Carolina in the fall election. He will.

History is, admittedly, on the side of the doubters. Since 1960, the only Democrat to carry South Carolina was Jimmy Carter from neighboring Georgia in 1976. In the seven presidential contests since then, Democrats have averaged only 40 percent of the vote. John Kerry got 41 percent.

But predicting the future based solely on the past is like trying to steer a car by looking backwards through the rearview mirror — often with the predictable results.

There are five reasons the results of an Obama candidacy in South Carolina will be different:

http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/philnoble/gG5jzg

[glowing]

1. I wouldn't doubt it.. I lived there.. Great state and everyone feels the pain

We used to say, if this state wasn't in the United States, it would be a 3rd world country... The beaches are well developed, but the rest of the state is really lacking and really hurting.

[phrigndumass]

2. It's time, and I believe it can happen!

:thumbsup:

[TTUBatfan2008]

3. I'll believe it when I see it...

but if he can pull that off, McCain is in big fuckin' trouble.

[papau]

5. I agree - Obama camp "plan" is 50% higher AA vote going 95/5 - I don't see it happening

[alteredstate]

6. It could happen.

:)

[Renew Deal]

7. Which part do you not see?

Because I see the 95-5 and I was in SC for the primary. Obama's GOTV in SC is SICK!!!! They've already identified the voters they need.

[Youphemism]

4. Maybe it's enough that Obama *could* win SC...

Obama will have a big money advantage as the election season drags on. His appeal in traditionally red states wreaks havoc on the electoral map. McCain will be forced to campaign in areas no republican has campaigned in decades.

The fact that Obama even has a prayer of winning in places like SC means that McCain will be forced to respond every time Obama makes an effort in one of those places. This gives Obama the initiative everywhere, and the ability to make a feint for one area and grab another -- all the while getting McCain to spend money from his less adequate war chest.

Obama may be able to use this advantage to make McCain jump to his tune, travel when he's tired, and play a shell game to figure out where Obama is actually performing his major assaults.

In the Primaries, Obama's camp was pretty airtight from strategy leaks and it played the delegate map beautifully to outperform Hillary in its target areas. Now they have more weapons, more ammo, and a battleground that offers more cover.

So, maybe the point isn't that Obama "will" win SC. Maybe the point is that McCain will have to plan his strategy knowing that Obama *could* win SC.

It makes it like having to plan a defense around a team with Jerry Rice on one side and Terrell Owens on the other.

[alteredstate]

9. Shrewd observations........

eom

[Oilwellian]

8. My favorite part

The Obama campaign will also accelerate change politics in South Carolina beyond November. It already has. In the January primary, he brought out a whole new generation of young and black voters who, having tasted success will not likely fade away but instead will demand more. And most importantly, there is now emerging a whole new generation of reform candidates, both black and white, who are committed to changing politics as usual — from the school boards to the courthouses to the State House.

So, it’s time. It’s time for us to quit gazing backwards in the rearview mirror into the political darkness of the past. It’s time for us to look ahead to the bright new day that is dawning in Palmetto State politics.

---Mr. Noble, a Charleston businessman, is a member of Sen. Obama’s statewide steering committee and president of S.C. New Democrats, a reform group founded by former Governor Richard Riley.

:applause: