THE MATH Daily Widget – Wednesday, June 4 – Wigand +0.00 – Total +0.00

[phrigndumass]

THE MATH Daily Widget – Wednesday, June 4 – Wigand +0.00 – Total +0.00








A new poll in North Carolina begins to show the Barr effect. Libertarian candidate Bob Barr is polling at 6% in North Carolina, while McCain polls at 43% and Obama polls at 40%. We will begin showing Barr on our pie charts this coming Friday with the full weekly update. Our indices showed no change today (give it a few days!) but my own electoral vote projection for Obama jumped seven to 296 today, partially because of the North Carolina poll, and partially due to an increase in strength of projection.

Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

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TRACKING



^ No changes today. Blue is blue and red is red.



^ The WEA total should begin to go north in the coming days!



^ All three indices show Obama gaining in electoral votes today. EV.com now has Obama winning in Missouri, but a quick look at that poll shows EV.com's Missouri poll might have a typo. McCain's 43 should be 48. Once they discover the typo, we can expect EV.com's Obama count to go back down by 11.


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^ This map is not a prediction. It is a map of the states which are currently either polling or trading blue. :D


Sources:
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
RCP Average

[phrigndumass]

1. Off to work kick

Enjoy your day!

(pssst, good morning fight4my3sons!)

[fight4my3sons]

2. Hello phrigndumass!

Sorry I missed you this morning. Wednesdays are 'late starts' in my son's school district which means he starts an hour late.

as always k&r and thanks for your hard work :hi:

love that cartoon

[phrigndumass]

3. That cartoon is fitting for today, isn't it?

Thanks! :hi:

[grantcart]

4. Arizona, Arizona can you hear us? commander we seem to have a problem in AZ

Phoenix, Arizona. June 3, 2008. The level of consumer confidence in the economy among
Arizonans has dropped sharply to 73.4 from 79.8 in January and 101.9 last July. This is the lowest
reading in 16 years when in 1992 the confidence index sank to 67.6. The Consumer Confidence Index,
compared to January, is lower in every region of the state, driven principally by loss of confidence in the
current economy, business confidence and employment.


Looking ahead, consumers show little improvement in their expectations, the current reading
at 76.0, compared to 75.3 in January and the much more robust 97.4 reading registered last summer.
It should be noted that this may not represent the lowest levels to which Consumer Confidence
can sink. In Arizona, the Index fell to 56.6 in 1990 and to 54.7 in 1982 – the record low.



http://www.brcpolls.com/08/RMP%202008-II-03.pdf

[grantcart]

5. do you have a link for the NC polls?

[phrigndumass]

7. Linkage ...

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_060208.pdf

[helderheid]

6. Teh hope and teh numminee - we haz it!

[phrigndumass]

8. phnyark! we haz it all along! :)

:P

[phrigndumass]

9. Evening kick