My apologies if this has been posted today...but, did anyone else suffer through Ickes on Press the Meat today? I had to re-visit the transcript because I turned it off after Ickes said, "We expect to get the nomination. We don't accept the premise of your question." If you can stomach the video (portions of which are at link below), it's even more perturbing.
~snip~
MR. RUSSERT: Seventeen million? Because by every analysis, Obama has 16.7 million popular votes, Clinton has 16.3. If you want to count Florida, Obama has 17.3 million, Clinton has 17.15. How do you say she has more popular votes than anybody else?
MR. ICKES: Well, we're going by the AP projections, and we're counting both Michigan and Florida. And, and in our...
MR. RUSSERT: You're counting Michigan when...
MR. ICKES: Yes, we're counting Michigan.
MR. RUSSERT: ...Senator Obama's name wasn't on the ballot?
MR. ICKES: We're counting Michigan. He voluntarily took his name off the ballot, Tim. There was no party rule, no exhortation from the Democratic National Committee. He, he--it was a voluntary, strategic choice that he made. He could have kept it on there.
MR. RUSSERT: But Senator Clinton said it didn't count for anything...
MR. ICKES: Well...
MR. RUSSERT: ...but now it counts for everything.
MR. ICKES: The popular vote is being added by AP, and we--our view is--very strong view is that the uncommitted vote is not--was not a vote for Obama.
MR. RUSSERT: There were nine nonbinding primaries in Nebraska, Washington state and Idaho. Should those votes be added?
MR. ICKES: They are--my understanding of the AP count there, they're in there.
MR. RUSSERT: And you agree with that?
MR. ICKES: What? They're--my understanding of the AP count is that they're in there.
MR. RUSSERT: Now, we had a briefing with the Clinton campaign in December, and you made we repeat after you, "Timothy, delegates nominate. Not states, not popular vote, delegates." So I want to look at the delegates. You need 2,118 to be nominated, and here they are. Obama, pledged delegates plus superdelegates 2,055.5; Clinton, 1880. If you assume that there are only 86 delegates left--Puerto Rico, Montana, South Dakota--for discussion's sake, because of portion allocation, they divide them. Each gets 43. Senator Clinton would then be 195 delegates short of the nomination. There are only 203 undeclared superdelegates. She'd have to get 195 out of the 203. Is that going to happen?
MR. ICKES: We continue to make our case that she is the more electable. Not that Senator Obama, who's run a strong and, and good campaign is not electable. We make the case, as you know, the superdelegates, not in the matchup in November, the person who can best assemble the swing or purple states, such as Florida or Ohio or a combination of smaller states, is Hillary Clinton. And I think she's, she's shown that in, time after time, in these primaries. And you look at her electoral base: women, Hispanics, Catholics, older Americans, and incomes under $50,000. She has a very strong general election electoral base and that's the case we make. Look, Tim, this is a--this is an extraordinary year. We both--Senator Daschle and I were talking about it earlier--it's an extraordinary year. We have two extraordinary candidates, and they're--these are difficult decisions that these remaining superdelegates will have to make. Hillary Clinton will be ahead in the popular vote on, on November--on the--on Tuesday.
MR. RUSSERT: If you're counting Michigan.
MR. ICKES: Neither, neither, neither--well, we're counting Michigan.
MR. RUSSERT: Right.
MR. ICKES: Michigan's in.
MR. RUSSERT: You...
MR. ICKES: It was seated by the, it was seated by the party rules.
MR. RUSSERT: You voted against seating it, according to the--and now you're counting the vote, even though you were against it?
MR. ICKES: Well, they're in there, and whether or not we go to the Credentials Committee. But, Tim, all I want to say is that she will be leading in the popular vote. He will be leading in delegates. Neither one will have enough delegates to clinch the nomination. The new number now is 2,118, as you specify. Not since 1972 has our party nominated a candidate who was not leading in the popular vote. That was, as you know, McGovern. That was the McGovern year.
MR. RUSSERT: Oh, so you're comparing Barack Obama to George McGovern.
MR. ICKES: No, I'm not. I'm not.
MR. RUSSERT: And you only...
MR. ICKES: That's not--Tim, no, no...
MR. RUSSERT: Well, but, but there are only 19...
MR. ICKES: No, wait. I was giving--no wait a minute. I was giving you a historical fact.
MR. RUSSERT: There were only 19 primaries back then, and it appears as if you're trying to put an asterisk on the nomination, saying, "You know, Obama may win this by delegates, but we really won the nomination."
MR. ICKES: No. Here's what I'm saying, Tim: In choosing the nominee, there are a number of--many factors to take into account, and we think that popular vote is a very, very strong measure and should be weighed heavily by the remaining superdelegates in making the final decision, because these 200 plus will, in fact, make the nomination. They are the convention now.
MR. RUSSERT: Since Super Tuesday, 157 superdelegates have opted for Obama, 33 for Clinton.
MR. ICKES: Mm-hmm.
MR. RUSSERT: Clearly they're not buying the argument as you're laying it out. If, on Wednesday morning, Barack Obama has enough elected delegates and committed superdelegates to put him over the 2118, will Senator Clinton congratulate him as the nominee?
MR. ICKES: We expect to get the nomination, Tim, and we're making a case.
MR. RUSSERT: That's not the question.
MR. ICKES: That's the answer.
MR. RUSSERT: So she won't congratulate him if he has the...
MR. ICKES: I didn't say that. We expect to get the nomination. We don't accept the premise of your question.
MR. RUSSERT: Senator Clinton said this December 30th, '07: "I have a campaign that's poised and ready for the long term. We're competing everywhere through February 5th. ... So I'm in it for the long run. It's not a very long run. It'll be over by February 5th."
MR. ICKES: I think most people, perhaps not you, but most people thought that at that time. Mistake in judgment. I thought that, Tim. A lot of people thought that. But circumstances change. It was a strong candidate running good elections. And it's been an exciting year, new people have come in. I applaud all of that. But, you know, a lot of people were wrong about that prediction, including myself.
MR. RUSSERT: Time magazine wrote this: "While Clinton based her strategy on the big contests, she seemed to virtually overlook states like Minnesota, Nebraska and Kansas, which chose their delegates through caucuses. She had a reason: the Clintons decided, says an adviser, that `caucus states were not really their thing.' Her core supporters--women, the elderly, those with blue-collar jobs--were less likely to be able to commit an evening of the week, as the process requires. But it was a little like unilateral disarmament in states worth 12 % of the pledged delegates. Indeed, it was in the caucus states that Obama piled up his lead among pledged delegates. `For all the talent and money they have over there,' said David Axelrod, Obama's strategist, `they ... seemed to have little understanding for the caucuses and how important they would become.'
"By the time Clinton's lieutenants realized the grave nature of their error, they lacked the resources to do anything about it." And from February 9th to the 19th, Obama ran up 11 wins in a row, gained a net advantage of 120 delegates, which is how he has won, apparently, the nomination. Big mistake?
MR. ICKES: As you look back, I suspect that Obama looks back on his campaign, we look back on ours, there were things we, we would redo.
MR. RUSSERT: Should Barack Obama offer Hillary Clinton the vice presidency to unite the party?
MR. ICKES: We don't think that that's going to be necessary. Mrs. Clinton will get the nomination.
MR. RUSSERT: Is she open to it?
MR. ICKES: I haven't thought...
MR. RUSSERT: In the spirit of unity.
MR. ICKES: I haven't--well, in the spirit of the unity that was shown yesterday, as an aside, we, we don't talk about that. There's nothing--I've never had a conversation with her about it, it's never been mentioned.
MR. RUSSERT: If things don't work out for Hillary Clinton this year and Barack Obama is not successful in the fall, will you be back with Senator Clinton in 2012?
MR. ICKES: Tim, I can't think beyond Tuesday, much less 2012.
MR. RUSSERT: Would Barack Obama make a good president?
MR. ICKES: I think he would make a, a very good president, yes.
MR. RUSSERT: Now, that's the spirit of unity. Harold Ickes, is that an endorsement?
MR. ICKES: Oh, he would, he would make, he would make a good president. And we're not saying he can't get elected. Our case is, Tim, as you know, that, as you look at the general election, it's not who's going to win California, Illinois, New York--although, you know, the--our opposition is not your standard issue Republican. He's going to upset some of our electoral map. The question is who can win the Floridas, the Ohios, the New Mexicos, the Nevadas, the West Virginias, the Tennessees, to bring in 270 electoral votes. John Kerry only won 258. He was 18 short.
MR. RUSSERT: What about Iowa, Virginia, Colorado, Minnesota, states that Obama runs better than Clinton?
MR. ICKES: Mrs. Clinton will win Minnesota. I don't, I don't think it's questionable whether Virginia is really--will really be there in the long run. but look at New--look, look at the swing states, Tim. You know them as well as I do--New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, West Virginia. We have not won West Virginia in the last two contests. Mrs. Clinton swept it off its feet.
MR. RUSSERT: When, when will this be over?
MR. ICKES: It'll be over when one candidate secures the number for the nomination.
MR. RUSSERT: Could that happen Wednesday?
MR. ICKES: It could. Anything could happen.
MR. RUSSERT: Harold Ickes, thank you for your views.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24916139/page/4/http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24916139/page/5/
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