Obama's lead in "earned" pledge delegates has diminished significantly

[kennetha]

It's a little hard to figure, but his "earned" pledge delegate lead is now significantly under 100. He has 16 pledged delegates that "defected" from the defunct Edwards camp. He has the delegates 59 (with 29.5 voting strength) he was magically granted from Michigan on the basis of who knows what. Take those "unearned" delegates and his lead in pledge delegates is significantly under 100. An insignificant number.

I would say that he currently has no great claim to the nomination than Hillary. The remaining supers could EASILY decide to go with Hillary as the stronger GE candidate. And Obama's vaunted argument about being the "people's choice" would have no force.

Notice that his camp isn't trumpeting their old "trifecta" "more pledge delegates, more contest, more popular vote" anymore. They don't lead in the popular vote. Their lead in "elected delegates" is insubstantial and is artificially pumped up by the travesty of the way Michigan was handled and the halving of Florida's voting power. And they haven't won much of anything since the beginning of March.

If Hillary pulls off two upsets on Tuesday, he will be the perhaps the most bloodied and damaged "frontrunner" in recent memory.

[Colobo]

1. Ok. Two things. 1) Obama will win both MT and SD, and 2)

It's over.

[anonymous171]

2. And Hillary will be the most hated "also-ran". Even more than Ted Kennedy.

[kennetha]

4. Since when is Ted Kennedy "hated"

All true democrats love the man.

[Elspeth]

24. He ran against Jimmy Carter in 1980 and tanked Carter's weak campaign

Many people felt that Teddy was being a deliberate spoiler.

[kennetha]

5. Delete Dupilcate message

[2rth2pwr]

9. Kennedy is an "also ran"?

[papau]

21. LOL - but sadly - I think you are correct - and 1980 result will repeat in 08 as no Hill VP

[w4rma]

23. Why the heck would one pick a VP loyal to themselves only?

And one who has alluded to, in a positive light, assassination as being how they might be swept into power. Not trustworthy.

[GarbagemanLB]

3. "The opposing team only won by 1 point."

They still won.

[Colobo]

6. LOL! Exactly.

[pocoloco]

7. And you will make a fortune in hardware!

[K Gardner]

8. oh dear lord in heaven, not this shit again. 48 hrs, 48 hrs, 48 hrs, 48 hrs..

[FrenchieCat]

10. Looks like he's in the lead to me. An unsurmountable lead.

But thanks for playing!

[Swamp Rat]

11. "the most bloodied and damaged "frontrunner" in recent memory." - Don King, is that you?

"$49.95! Only on Pay-Per-View!"

[dorktv]

12. She is not going to pull off an upset. However if the margin is like Oregon it will be worrisome.

[99th_Monkey]

13. Problem is, with your rosey scenario, that unpledged Supers support who's got more delegates.

as they should, and they know it, and that's it for Hillary.

sorry for you, but glad for our party and our country that Dems follow their own rules.

Imagine the heyday the GOP would have with Hillary as the "obviously illegitimate" nominee,
who stole the nomination from Barack. No thanks, I'll pass.

[hendo]

14. oo, I like sci-fi/fantasy.

You have a long way to go to perfect your craft. Most good alternate reality stories have some degree of truth to them, it's what makes them believable.

[grantcart]

15. without a doubt the stupidest thread I have read since that lamebrained idiot

argued that the landslide victory for Obama in Wyoming was somehow a victory for Clinton

[cliffordu]

16. Yeah, the DNC, at the behest of MI and FLA just GAVE Hill a butload

of delegates just yesterday!!!

Don't mean shit.

SHE'S toast!!

And you don't know dick.

[AZBlue]

17. Give it up. Get help. Accept reality.

[dave29]

18. Hey they finally don't want to consider superdelegates!

progress :)

[Spider Jerusalem]

19. Simple math and a few basic facts for you:

Obama has won an absolute majority of all pledged delegates. The delegate counts, in the Democratic primary system, are the only metric that matters. Delegate counts are the most representative metric of a candidate's popular support in the mixed primary/caucus Democratic nomination process. The superdelegates are not going to overturn the expressed will of the voters as represented by delegate counts. It won't happen. It is over.

[Yotun]

20. Too. Stupid. To. Reply.. God- you know, I've debated with flat-earthers and YEC's with more sense

You guys are pitiful. There's no more sense in talking to you. You just refuse to see sense and go on and on and on, coming up with the most ridiculously stupid arguments and insults against the Democratic nominee. I'd ask why such hate, but I KNOW there's no point in asking a ration question.

[papapi]

22. Unmitigated balderdash.

[DerekJ]

25. Fine 100 delegates it is. You mean like 10 Hillary PA wins right (10 big states)?!!

[LowerManhattanite]

26. “Death Rattle”...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_rattle

“A death rattle is a gurgling or rattle-like noise produced shortly before or after death by the accumulation of excessive respiratory secretions in the throat.”

[the_real_38]

27. It's certainly not settled yet, but should be soon..

.... the superdelegates have to make their decision, and they should weigh a number of factors.

[SoCalDem]

28. Geez Louise.. I gotta hand it to y'all..

Those rose-colored glasses must be surgically affixed, to still see a light at the end of the tunnel that is NOT a TRAIN :rofl:

"under a hundred" is NOT gonna cut it...and the SDs also "know" that HRC's "wins" post Mccain being picked are "tainted".. They can smell the flop sweat just like we realists can :)

Her twisted math gyrations, to arrive at a "winnng the popular vote" conclusion are fun to watch, but not valid (popular vote is NOT a real part of primaries)

Her "winning claims" are pathetically humorous, but that's about it.. I always liken it to being chosen for a solo in the Titanic Orchestra...on April 12, 1914 :rofl:

[Gore1FL]

29. I count 116

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-list.html

Hardly under 100.

[ToddinWI]

30. According to MSNBC

It's now 121 difference in pledged delegates, down from about 160 or so a couple days ago. The Obama campaign made concessions on Saturday of about 24 delegates and then there is the result today in Puerto Rico. So, it's not going to be close, or close enough to have the ending you are suggesting. Something big would have to happen and what we see is a playing out of the field over the past few weeks.

[bowens43]

31. Hillary lost. Get over it. Get help.

[Ganja Ninja]

32. You people really need to come to grips with the fact that Hillary

is going to the convention in second place. Obama has more pledged delegates right now than Hillary could possibly gain in MT & SD. That's the way it is. Best to accept that and move on. I'm saving you a seat on the Obama bandwagon until you do.

[Vinca]

33. Note: he's still ahead. That's why they call it a contest.

The one with the the most delegates wins.

[dems_rightnow]

34. He's not as far ahead as he was

But still way far ahead. Overwhelmingly far ahead.

100 yards isn't much in a mile race- unless you've already rounded the last turn.

[barack the house]

35. Spin however you wish Hillary has been 2nd all the way through.

[Political Heretic]

36. They DO LEAD IN THE POPULAR VOTE.

My god people, explain the "math" by which Obama doesn't lead the popular vote you crazy lunatics. Jesus.

[Dawgs]

37. In two weeks, it will be 'Hillary who?'

Nice try at tearing down a candidate that thinks like yours.

[WeDidIt]

38. You're still in denial

Even Hillary knows she can't win now and even she sees the writing on the wall where she will ahve to drop out and endorse.

Barack has been gracious and has given her plenty of room. He won't be declaring victory until tomorrow night.

Make no mistake, when Barack steps to the podium to declare victory, he will be the victor in pledged delegates, super dleegates, constests, and the popular vote, just as he leads right now in pledged delegates, super delegates, contests, and the popular vote.