Phoenix We Have a Problem: Obama may be able to take Arizona

[grantcart]

Senator McCain's Diminishing Lead in Arizona Shrinks from 25 points to 11 points and is expected to shrink futher.

The polling outfit to keep the closest track of Presidential Opinion preference in the State of Arizona is projecting that there is a good chance that Arizona will be a swing state with a possible win for Democrats in November.

Behavior Research Center based in Phoenix would seem an unlikely candidate to promote bad news against its native son. Its CEO, Mr. Haynes served for sixteen years as President of the Phoenix Chamber of Commerce. Further background checking indicated that Haynes has had only minor support of political candidates with a $ 200 contribution to a Democrate in 1994 and $ 500 for Kyl in 1986.

Looking behind the numbers there are strong indicators that Obama will likely close the gap and could take Arizona within the MOE soon.

In their comments on their first poll they anticipated a possible close election even though Senator McCain held a 23 point advantage

Phoenix, Arizona , January 26, 2007. McCain 56 Obama 33 McCain +23

As might be expected, had an election been held in Arizona at the timeof this January survey, favorite son Republican John McCain would defeat either of two democrats included in thetest: Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois. McCain enjoys a wide 56 to 33 percent lead over Barack Obama and a 56 to 34 percent lead over Hillary Clinton. It may come as a surprise to some observers that McCain’s lead over two liberal Democrats is not even stronger than shown in this poll, yet the reality is that Arizona is increasingly moving toward the center and voters look more favorably on moderate and Democrat candidates than has been the case over the past several decades. This trend can be more clearly seen when we look at a second test election in which the Republican Mitt Romney’s name was substituted for McCain. When this is done, both Clinton and Obama run dead even with Romney, making it clear that without a favorite son on the ballot, Arizona could vote Democratic in the presidential election.

http://www.brcpolls.com/07/RMP-2007-I-02.pdf

Two months later poll results show that while McCain remains a favorite son Obama could beat Romney 43-42

Phoenix, Arizona , March 27, 2007. McCain 57 Obama 32 McCain + 25

Whether the Democratic primary contest is won by Clinton or Obama, both will face an uphill battle to beat Republicans such as John McCain or Rudy Guiliani in Arizona. Obama is the stronger of the two against McCain and Guiliani and actually out-polls Mitt Romney. Obama trails McCain by 57 to 32 percent and Guiliani by 53 to 35 percent.

http://www.brcpolls.com/07/RMP%202007-II-02.pdf

Now their most recent poll shows further narrowing

Phoenix, Arizona , March 23, 2008. McCain 50 Obama 39 McCain + 11

Republican candidate John McCain would defeat either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton in Arizona,but with margin’s smaller, especially against Barack Obama than one might expect for a favorite son. His lead over Barack Obama is eleven points. . .

Voting is intensely partisan with 84 percent or more of Republicans sticking with McCain against either of the Democratic challengers. Similarly, 70 percent or more of Democrats sticking with Obama or Clinton against McCain. So it appears that much of the GOP hope that Democrats will remain divided after the nomination process is over may be wishful thinking on their part. Further, at this moment in time, Independent voters are splitting right down the middle so there is no advantage to either side from the ranks of Independents. And the threat of third party candidates is minuscule: barely one percent indicate they are thinking about voting for third party candidates.


So, in the final analysis, if Democrats close ranks after the nomination process is over to a level even stronger than the 70 percent already shown in this poll and if they remain competitive for the vote of Independents, McCain may find himself in a horse race here in Arizona with whomever is the Democratic nominee in November. Obama already appears to be the most formidable which
undoubtably explains early efforts by the McCain campaign to criticize his experience and policies. Obama’s greater potential strength here is also seen in the fact that by a five to one ratio, those voters who were uncommitted in a McCain-Clinton test election, switch to Obama in an Obama-McCain test election. In contrast, undecided voters in a McCain-Obama test election split evenly ina McCain-Clinton test election.

http://www.brcpolls.com/08/RMP%202008-II-01.pdf

Another Arizona poll taken shows almost the same exact numbers McCain 47 Obama 38

http://www.azpbs.org/horizon/poll/2008/4-29-08.htm


On edit adding this additional information (accidentally posted before finished lol)

Only 34% of Arizonans believe that McCain can get us out of Iraq and unable to revive the economy.

Phoenix, Arizona. May 24, 2008. Fewer than four in ten Arizonans believe John McCain is the best candidate among contenders for President of the United States to deal with the two top issues of the day:getting the U.S. out of Iraq or helping revive the U.S. economy.

The more defining of the two issues is who voters think is most likely to get the U.S. out of Iraq. As of the time of this survey, fifty percent of the nominations go to the Democrat candidates, and particularly to Barack Obama. Only 34 percent nominate theRepublican John McCain. Another 16 percent doubt that any of the three are well equipped to get the U.S. out of Iraq.
In general it appears that voters here have more confidence in the Democratic candidates which may in part explain the competitiveness of the Presidential race in this state.

Favorite son John McCain only leads his potential Democratic rivals by 11 to 15 percentage points, with Barack Obama nipping closest at his heels.It also appears that among those with greater confidence in the Democrats and that of the two, candidate Obama has defined himself in a more appealing way than has Clinton.

Confidence in his ability to extricate the U.S. from Iraq is roughly three to two over Clinton in all age groups and rises to a more impressive 47 to 32 among Democratic voters. Among the one fifth of Republicans who do not believe McCain would do the best job, Obama is given the nod over Clinton by three to one.

On the issue of who would do the best job improving the U.S. economy, McCain does better, attracting 38 percent of the nominations compared to 41 percent combined nominations for the two Democrats.

Here again, however, Obama out polls Clinton across all voter subgroups. On the economy, however, it is also clear that older voters have more confidence in McCain, particularly those over 55 years of age. Also evident throughout the data is the fact that McCain is in deep trouble with women voters. Only 31 percent look favorably on his ability to manage the economy and only 28 percent think he is the best equipped to get the US out of Iraq.

One of the factors many observers may be overlooking about Arizona is that with its 3% annual growth - by far the highest in the country - 30% of the voters in 2008 are new to the state since Bush came to office in 2000.

[panader0]

1. Even among my construction buddies I think BO has the lead

I sing his praises every chance I get.

[grantcart]

61. thanks

[roguevalley]

2. he is so going to lose in November.

[cliffordu]

75. Keep eating grapes that sour and your face will stay like that forever....

[Arugula Latte]

121. Roguevalley is an Obama supporter.

I think the "he" refers to McCain.

[grantcart]

126. I agree

[cliffordu]

127. Well, I guess I owe Rougevalley an apology....

SORRY!! it was a rough night, I was reading too fast.

AND I AM A COMPLETE ASS!!!!

:hi:

[Tesha]

115. Are you speaking of McCain? (NT)

[cliffordu]

128. Well, I guess I owe Rougevalley an apology....

SORRY!! it was a rough night, I was reading too fast.

AND I AM A COMPLETE ASS!!!!


:hi:

[WonderGrunion]

143. I'm not sure if DU rules

allow you to call yourself out. Have a nap. It's a great day for America.

[aaaaaa5a]

3. Could this be good news for...

Janet Napolitano?

[RichardRay]

8. I heard her speaking at the Commonweatlth Club of California

and she was pretty impressive. Excellent speaker, solid grasp of her issues, funny and engaging. I don't know much about her beyond that, but I'm going to keep an eye out.

[grantcart]

122. I wonder what Michelle was doing in Phoenix last week?

meeting with Napolitano?

[democrattotheend]

4. My great aunt who lives there says McCain is not that popular

I doubt Obama could win it but he could embarrass McCain by forcing him to spend time and money there.

[AZBlue]

25. No he's not.

He's only stayed in office because he's got huge funds to defeat any opponents and because there really haven't been many opponents who ran against him.

[grantcart]

113. and that is the whole point

[woolldog]

5. I don't see anything in the polls that suggest Obama will win AZ

or that it will even be close.

[goldcanyonaz]

9. He wont and neither would Clinton

The state has changed a lot in the past few years, but it is not ready to turn back blue anytime soon

[woolldog]

14. fivethirtyeight.com gives Obama a 4% chance of winning AZ.

And lists the most recent reputable polls.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

[grantcart]

16. They also include these two polls so I guess that they are reputable

Moreover in projecting what will happen in Arizona people outside of the state may be unaware that it is the fastest growing state in the union - by a considerable margin and that 30% of the voters in 2008 were not residents in the state in 2000.

Using 538's latest polls show that McCain has a 10% advantage while in the midst of the fight with Clinton. It is expected that after he becomes the presumptive nominee.

Moreover the tabs behind the poll shows that a dismal 34% have confidence that McCain can solve the two most important problems Iraq and the economy.

[goclark]

32. Come on Arizona! Sock it to McOffHisNoodle asap

:woohoo:

[Tatiana]

6. I think McCain will take it narrowly.

But it will be funny as hell watching the RNC be forced to spend $$$ having to defend their candidate's OWN HOME STATE!

:rofl:

[grantcart]

23. exactly and even if it becomes close it will damage his fund raising

[Kittycat]

51. Not to mention draining his resources. You know

that he's not going to lose AZ, his home state, without putting up a hell of a fight.

Meanwhile... Every fight the RNC has to help save, leaves downticket repukes dead in the water. Obama's strategy has been near perfect in setting up the perfect GE.

[azmouse]

7. I love AZ!

A lot of people have moved here in the last 15 years... people who are more liberal.
We're still a long way from being like CA but progress has been made.


Gobama!! :patriot:

[goldcanyonaz]

11. maybe in another 8-10 years, we are getting close, but still have a way to go

[grantcart]

18. in the last 8 years 30% of the voters in Arizona have come from out of state

the 2 latest polls in AZ show McCain with a 10 point advantage but polling less than 50%.

Now do you have any actual facts to support your opinion?

[woolldog]

22. Obama's support hasn't risen above 40%

That usually isn't a sign of strength.

Even if most undecided voters broke for him, which is unlikely, McCain would still win comfortably.

[grantcart]

29. And McCains has fallen under 50

The difference is that McCain has lived and campaigned there for 20 years and has a minimal 10 year advantage during a full out intercene fight in the Democratic party.

Moreover you have ignored completely the polling on the issues which show that AZ actual belief that McCain will be an effective leader is at Bush levels 34%.

The OP didn't say that Obama had a lock on AZ but that it was narrowing and likely to narrow further.

As the pollsters found a year ago the demographic changes in the country's fastest moving state is having a dramatic impact on its poliltical profile. A year ago they found that Obama could take Romney:

It may come as a surprise to some observers that McCain’s lead over two liberal Democrats is not evenstronger than shown in this poll, yet the reality is that Arizona is increasingly moving toward the center and voterslook more favorably on moderate and Democrat candidates than has been the case over the past several decades.This trend can be more clearly seen when we look at a second test election in which the Republican MittRomney’s name was substituted for McCain. When this is done, both Clinton and Obama run dead even with Romney, making it clear that without a favorite son on the ballot, Arizona could vote Democratic in the presidential election.

You completely dismissed the polls as unreliable and the when it was shown that your 'highly recommended' source was using the exact same sources you have previcated without fact.

Here are the facts:

1) McCain is polling under 50% in his home state.

2) Obama is only 10 points behind while suffering a distinct disadvantage of being in the middle of a hard fought democratic primary

3) Polling shows that only 34% of Arizonans have confidence that McCain can solve the problems of Iraq and the Economy.

Do you dispute any of these three facts?

Would you not agree that these facts constitute a major problem for a candidate when they occur in his home state?

[woolldog]

30. No. I don't dispute that.

Yes, it's a problem, but I don't see it as a major one for McCain or one that threatens his lead in his home state.

10 points behind in a state where you've shown no strength, where you're still polling in the 30s isn't a great position to be in. It indicates many aren't enthused about McCain, but even fewer about Obama. And of course being unenthused about McCain is very different from being Probama.

[grantcart]

34. So it is your opinion that after Tuesday when Senator Obama

becomes the presumptive nominee and starts getting major endorsements including Gore, Carter, Pelosi that he will not move a single point from 39 to 40 and he will still be polling in his 30s? lol thats rich - very funny.


You started your objections by discounting the source until it was shown that they were the same sources that your preferred source has cited.

You completely avoid reference on questions of McCain's competence that shows that his favorables on Iraq and the Economy are "still polling in the 30s" which is actually at 34% while Obama, again in the middle of a democratic street fight is at 39% which you characterize, amazingly as "still polling in the 30s".

The fact is that despite being a long term Senator the polls show McCain has very weak support and Obama who hasn't had any real campaigning in the state is now only 10 points behind.

Your statement that fewer are enthused about Obama than McCain is a ridiculous statement given the fact that he has campaigned there many times and is well known. In every single location Obama has campaigned he has increased his numbers.

Your highly argumentative replies have started out by saying that it was a flawed poll.

Then you have moved that Obama's numbers were weak.

When shown that McCain's numbers were even weaker you have been reduced to a lack of enthusiasm about Obama even though he is only 10 points out, while in the middle of a bitter democratic primary fight, and not having had an opportunity to do meaningful campaiging there.

Your replies have done nothing to diminish the primary point of the OP that McCain has a surprisingly low level of support in AZ and that it is expected to go lower, and that if that continues AZ will soon be a 'swing state'.

Whats up next? Are you going to argue that the citation of 30 point leads in HI and IL are inaccurate.

Next time rather than jumping in with reckless accusations that the OP is 'flawed' and that the polls cited are not reliable why don't you bother to actually check out your own sources to see that they are in fact the same.

It wouldn't hurt to actually bring a fact or two to your argument either.

[woolldog]

43. I never questioned the polls.

I said there was nothing in the polls to suggest an Obama victory in AZ. I still feel that way. Obama has shown no strength in AZ. He's 10 points behind and and doesn't even poll above 40%.

What I think is flawed is your conclusion that McCain is in trouble in Arizona based on these polls.

I don't know whether he will receive a bounce or not. What % of the democratic vote is he getting there now? In some states he will receive virtually no bounce because Democrats are already united behind him. He is polling at in the 30s. Even if he receives a bounce he will still be far behind.

I've reviewed my posts on this thread and don't find them argumentative.

[grantcart]

46. You never questioned the polls?

So when you said the following

quote

fivethirtyeight.com gives Obama a 4% chance of winning AZ

And lists the most recent reputable polls.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
unquote

What were you referring to and why would you be advising to go to 538 for more reliable polls, if you weren't questioning the polls? Your response makes no sense when referred to your earlier statement. You cite 'most reliable polls' (which in fact are the same polls) and then state you "never questioned the polls"? How intellectually dishonest can a person be? Maybe it was your exposure to Bosnian snipers that make it impossible for you to even acknowledge your own statements.


Your drivel swims in the absurdity that Obama will not benefit from endorsements by Gore, Carter, Pelosi and everyone else when he becomes the presumptive nominee he will not receive a single point and that he will still be polling in the 30s ( a highly disengenous charachterization of his polling at 38 and 39).

The conclusion that Arizona could be a swing state was not mine - it was that of the pollsters who indicated that the numbers foreshadowed a relatively performance by McCain and titled their article in part with

BOTH DEMOCRATS PROVE ARIZONA COULD BE A SWING STATE IN ‘08

Given the fact that the author was a non political Arizonan who seems well connected (16 year president of the Chamber Of Commerce) I think his grap of the poll figures and the reality in Arizona is better than yours.

Moreover the fact that McCain only got 50% of the primary vote in the Republican Primary also confirms a lack of local affection in the party their for him.

Your posts are highly argumentative for example you initiate your response by saying that "It is flawed" then you suggest a better source for "most recent reputable polls" and now you are asserting that "I never questioned the polls".

[woolldog]

47. First of all, chill!

I'm not being argumentative. I'm giving my opinion. I wasn't questioning the veracity of those polls or their methods. To me a poll that shows him that many points behind with that consistent low level of support does NOT show that he has a chance in AZ! That's what is flawed: your sensationalistic, tabloid-esque conclusions & headlines. Not the polls or their methodology, which I barely even looked at.

"538 lists the most recent reputable polls."

Stop telling me that I meant to question the polls in your OP when I didn't! I didn't compare your polls with the polls on 538. Stop being so self-centered and assuming that everything is a dig at you. I was passing on that bit of info to jasmine who may not have ever visited that site. It is a fact that 538 has the most recent reputable AZ polls and that's what their projections are largely (but not entirely) based on. If the polls you listed are included, good for you. I'm happy for you. It has nothing to do with what I said to jasmine.

Again, I have no issues with the polls. But they don't show what you indicate they do. And they aren't the whole picture for AZ.

Question:

Do you think Obama will receive a unity bounce in, say, Vermont?

I can't say he'll receive a unity bounce in AZ or not, but his level of support is so low in AZ it won't matter.

[grantcart]

56. Why are you now talking about Vermont? have you lost your mind

Where have I said anything but that this is about the fact the spread in Arizona is getting surprisingly tight?

Your other points have all been answered and you are simply repeating them MacAuliffe style. I have continued to prove your lack of grasp of what is going down at the end of the thread since you have now jumped down there.

As for 'chilling' your the one that jumped in the thread and said that it was 'flawed' after only a few minutes. If you had taken the time to actually go back to the links provided you would have seen that the pollsters saw that Arizona was a possible swing state as far back in 2007.

Any 'unity' bounce that he gets will make a difference and bring him embarassing close to McCain whose numbers are embarassing low for the home state of a presidential candidate and that

[woolldog]

64. The relevance of Vermont

Obama will probably not get a unity bounce in VT because the Democratic party, including Clinton supporters are already unified behind him. He will probably not get much of a unity bounce in CA because the electorate was never that divided between BO and HC. The polls there reflect that.

I can't speculate on whether he will get much of a unity bounce in AZ b/c I have no idea how divided the electorate is and how much of the democratic party vote he is already getting in those polls. What evidence do you have that he will get a substantial unity bounce in AZ? Even with a unity bounce he will still be far behind.

[grantcart]

82. Christ you don't even read the OP and then you call it flawed and now I have to spoon feed it to you

I will quote directly from the OP. First (also from the OP) Who is this guy? He is a non political long term Phoenix busnissman with a political science degree with no deep connections to either party who served for 16 years as President of the Phoenix Chamber of Commerce who has been saying for over a year that Arizona is likely to become a swing state.

He now states that that quote "if the Democrats close ranks after the nomination process is over to a level even stronger than the 70 percent already shown in this poll . . . McCain may find himself in a horse race here in Arizona." unquote But you continue to challenge the statistics and the analysis even though it is painfully obvious you never read the OP

Here is how it appeared in the OP that you did not read

So, in the final analysis, if Democrats close ranks after the nomination process is over to a level even stronger than the 70 percent already shown in this poll and if they remain competitive for the vote of Independents, McCain may find himself in a horse race here in Arizona with whomever is the Democratic nominee in November. Obama already appears to be the most formidable which
undoubtably explains early efforts by the McCain campaign to criticize his experience and policies. Obama’s greater potential strength here is also seen in the fact that by a five to one ratio, those voters who were uncommitted in a McCain-Clinton test election, switch to Obama in an Obama-McCain test election. In contrast, undecided voters in a McCain-Obama test election split evenly ina McCain-Clinton test election.

What's next are you going to deny that McCain managed only 50% of the primary results in his home state? Are you going to deny that Michelle was campaigning a few days ago in Phoenix of all places - only a week after this poll was published? Give me a f****** break

[woolldog]

91. stop stalking me.

lol

[grantcart]

39. In going back in checking the primary results I find that McCain only got 50%

in his own homestate primary - and that the Republicans outpolled the Democrats by a modest 55,000 votes. I would suggest that these votes tend to confirm the results in the polls you have repeatedly called flawed without reason.

[slinkerwink]

38. We can make McCain spend money in his own state to keep it red

[HCE SuiGeneris]

10. I will be actively working for that exact outcome.

McSame will be relegated to the dustbin of history.

[izquierdista]

12. No favorite son in AZ

Arizona is not a place where there is a lot of pride about a native. It's MUCH different than in 1964 when Goldwater easily won the state. Goldwater had instant name recognition since his family name was on the biggest department store in the state. McCain is simply another retired military who settled in AZ to escape the snow. And today the majority of Arizonans are from someplace else, probably wishing that it wasn't so damned red.

[cliffordu]

13. This little bit of information needs to be fed to the talking heads daily.

We are running against a man who could lose his own state....Arizona 11!!!11!!
TO A DEMOCRAT



:rofl:

[woolldog]

15. It's flawed. McCain isn't going to lose, Arizona.

[grantcart]

17. as reported up thread the polls I included were also included in 538 so what is the flaw?

Also going behind the totals and looking at the questions of confidence shows that 34% of Arizonans are convinced that McCain can solve either Iraq or the economy.

Do you have any actual facts to support your claim?

After Obama becomes the presumptive nominee it is expected that the 10 point advantage that McCain has will shrink.

Moreover the last two surveys quoted in 538.com - your source both show that McCain is polling at lower than 50%.

[grantcart]

40. Really just exactly what is flawed?

In going back in checking the primary results I find that McCain only got 50%
in his own homestate primary - and that the Republicans outpolled the Democrats by a modest 55,000 votes. I would suggest that these votes tend to confirm the results in the polls you have repeatedly called flawed without reason.

[LordJFT]

20. well they'll just bring up gore i'm sure

[grantcart]

21. The real importance of the story is that if it does get to the MSM it will

cripple his already strugglying fund raising efforts.

[4_Legs_Good]

19. This is going to be a fuuuuuuuun year!

So looking forward to a LOT of BLUE!

David

[barack the house]

24. I think he can take AZ it'll take an effort but I think it can happen.

[WillyT]

26. Doing The DU Dance Of Joy Right Now !!!

:bounce::hi::bounce:

[AZBlue]

27. Bookmarked, Kicked & Rec!

I'm very excited by this information. I've been wondering how to best help Obama this summer and fall - should I stay here and really work hard in AZ or should I split my time between AZ and CA or another western state that had a better chance of going for Obama? I think this answers my question.
I've been doing things locally with the various groups here and have been awaiting the re-opening of the Obama office. This just makes me even more enthsiastic and more determined - thanks for your fine post!

[peoli]

28. Ive lived in AZ for over 25 years (help!) and most of my family are Repubs and of those in AZ

they are not so stoked about John McCain. although they will probably voted for him. I think if the Dem Party is energized they can make a real push vs. a lackluster GOP.

[grantcart]

125. thanks I am hearing similar statements from a lot of people

[ShadowLiberal]

31. I understand the logic, but some things strike me as kind of... odd in the polls

I understand the logic that Obama could get a boost among democrats and do decently well in Arizona if he stays competitive among independents, but I really doubt that he could beat McCain in his home state.

One thing that strikes me as odd with your numbers are how Rudy's are almost the same as McCain's in McCain's home state, something doesn't seem right there, though Clinton isn't getting much of a home state boost either compared to Obama in New York.

I can only see Obama winning Arizona if McCain gets completely blown out of the water all across the board (as in losing by 100+ electoral votes and 10%+ of the popular vote).

[grantcart]

35. When thinking of AZ you have to realize that atleast 30% of the voters are not

Arizonans but recent migrants. The fact is that some politicians (like John Edwards in NC) are more popular outside the state than in their own state.

The fact that McCain's numbers were the same as Rudy's can only be guessed at. I would guess that one of the reasons that McCain would not poll a great deal higher is that there may be many in AZ that have been unhappy with his stances on immigration, where among some it is a highly emotional issue. He did poll much higher than Romney though.

And of course if it is close in AZ it will be an indicator of a likely landslide nationwide

[grantcart]

41. You may be interested in the primary results which show McCain's weakness

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results...

Here are the primary totals

John McCain 255,197
Hillary Clinton 229,501
Barack Obama 193,126
Mitt Romney 186,838

The top two Democrats outpolled the top two Republicans

McCain got only 50% of his primary.


So it turns out that not a single word of your reply is correct.

[cliffordu]

77. OUCH!!! Fock. That's going to leave a mark.....

:rofl:

[jgraz]

33. Then why can't he close the deal against Hillary????

Sorry, just anticipating the standard Hillbot response.


PLUS -- his pastor is MEAN and he has a PENIS!!!!

[cliffordu]

78. OMFG OMFG OMFG!11!!!!1 11!1!!!!11 Not the Penis!!11!!/

[saracat]

36. Fat chance. While hating him AZ turned out 3 to 1 for Mccain in the primary!

3 times as many voters turned out for Mccain, who they loathe than for Hillary obama and Edwards and the others combined. Dream on .

[grantcart]

37. Are you aware of the new invention called the internet that actually allows you to check your facts?

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/AZ.html

Here are the primary totals

John McCain 255,197
Hillary Clinton 229,501
Barack Obama 193,126
Mitt Romney 186,838

The top two Democrats outpolled the top two Republicans

McCain got only 50% of his primary.


So it turns out that not a single word of your reply is correct.

Well except for the word Fat and I am trying to lose weight as fast as I can.

[BlooInBloo]

42. Dude, I'm hungry. Can you share some of that pwnage?

[grantcart]

44. I think this is a strange thread

Its filled with people from AZ who anecdotally agree with whats been shown in the polls and then there are several who jump in very quickly to try and disprove it without actually checking it out.

The results of the polls were so surprising to me that I actually spent a lot of time checking out the principals because I was afraid that it was a friendly source. Turns out the company is run by a guy who was president of the Chamber of Commerce for 16 years.

[BlooInBloo]

45. Too many disappointments, maybe.

[cliffordu]

68. This is great! I guess you know you're up to your ass in trolls here, don't ya??

[cliffordu]

72. I find it VERY odd there are folks here who defend McCain's

market share....

[Starbucks Anarchist]

50. AHAHAHAH!

:toast:

[AZBlue]

52. First I've heard that. Can you provide a link or any numbers to back that up?

[Carrieyazel]

48. Dream on. There is no way McCain loses in Arizona. Those who think otherwise need help.

We have a problem all right. When people think Obama can win in states he can't, does this mean his campaign staff may believe the same thing?

[woolldog]

49. I don't understand it.

Normally grantcart is so level-headed.

It's ridiculous to try to link what's written on an internet messageboard by armchair strategists with the thought process of the Obama campaign, btw.

[grantcart]

54. Save your patronizing clap trap - people that have gotten this far in the thread have seen how you

embarassed yourself above. Its a pattern with you.

Not only are you not paying attention or actually reading the polls to realize that I was using the same polls you were recommending so highly, but this week the Obama campaign was sending its number one surrogate where, oh my goodness why is Michelle all of a sudden going to all places in the world - Phoenix. Next time you come to one of my threads and want to spread your bullshit bring a fact or two.

Here are the facts

1)The reality is that McCain is soft in his state.

2)He only got 50% of the vote in his Republican Primary.

3)He is currently polling at less than 50% in his state in the latest polls (the same ones you recommend)

4)Polls show also that only 34% of Arizonans believe that McCain has the answers to Iraq and the Economy.

5) A few days after the poll is published Michelle Obama comes to Phoenix and promises to return.

Those are the facts and nothing in the dozen replies have dispelled any of those facts or the implication that it seems clear that

something is happening in Arizona and that the Obama campaign is aware of it and intend to add pressure there.

The fact is that if it continues to tighten to even a 5-6 points (the last poll was 9) it will have a dramatic impact impact on McCain's fund raising. A lot of people are not going to contribute money to a person who cannot command a following in his own state.

You have got it back asswards. They are not going there because the read something I wrote, I started looking at Arizona polls to figure out

why with all of the places that they could go to would they send Michelle Obama there last week during the middle of the campaign for an event that was closed to the press and indicate that they intended to coming back.

Michelle Obama event goes largely unnoticed

http://www.politickeraz.com/evanbrown/1349/michelle-obama-event-goes-largely-unnoticed

By Evan Brown
With most media attention focused on the president's fundraising stop with Sen. John McCain yesterday, Michelle Obama's Phoenix appearance went largely unnoticed. The First Lady hopeful was also in Phoenix, just a block from where Bush and McCain had been scheduled to appear, speaking to a klatsch of contributors at the Wyndham Hotel.

The Arizona Republic reports that Obama's visit was held in semi-secrecy, off-limits to reporters and kept successfully under the radar for the most part, unlike the Bush-McCain visit:

"On the same day presidential hopeful Barack Obama criticized John McCain for holding a private fundraiser in Phoenix that excluded the media, Obama's wife, Michelle, visited the same city and skipped reporters, as well.

"'Unfortunately, Michelle's short stop in the state is closed to the press and she is not doing interviews, but we will be back,' said Katie McCormick Lelyveld, spokeswoman for Michelle Obama, in an e-mail."

The Obama campaign has a habit of going places that people don't think they should, that are just a waste of time. And of all of the places to go she shows up in Phoenix three days ago and makes a point of "stating we will be back"

[woolldog]

63. You're comparing a McCain-Obama poll from

over a year ago when people in AZ had no idea who he is to one from March of this year and concluding Obama is now somehow competitive in AZ despite being at least 10 points down. And you're lecturing me about intellectual honesty? lol

The polls are fine, I assume. I haven't scrutinized them and would never claim that a poll I've only skimmed is flawed. However, YOUR CONCLUSIONS AND YOUR ARGUMENTS ARE FLAWED.

[grantcart]

65. The conclusions are from the pollster who you have already admitted that you didn't read lol

you have already said that the polls are flawed and suggested a different set of polls without realizing they were the same polls

the polls from a year ago are by the same pollster who issued the latest poll (which you said was flawed and at the same time referred to another site which used the same polls) by linking back to the web site of the pollster it showed additional polls just released that showed that McCain has the support of only 34% of the Arizona population on the questions of Iraq and the economy.

Before you jump in and start claiming my sources are not valid take a second to actually read them.

[woolldog]

67. you're twisting what happened and my intentions

b/c I wounded your ginormous ego by criticizing your post.

I never claimed your sources weren't valid. And I never said the polls were flawed and my suggestion of 538 had nothing to do with that. I don't have a problem with the numbers. I have a problem with the conclusions you (or the pollster) are drawing from them.

So sad that you take any disagreement so personally you're twisting my words and assigning non-existent motives to me as a result.

(If I believed the polls sucked I wouldn't have been shy about saying exactly that. I don't beat around the bush when it comes to giving my opinion. And I don't have a problem admitting when I'm wrong either.)

Since your ego will probably compel you to have the last word, go ahead.

P.S. I reserve the right to bookmark this thread and bring it up in the future.

[grantcart]

71. the issues you bring up MacAuliffe style have all been addressed

up thread.

Your petty repetition of the same points over and over again show that it is your ego that has been wounded by the fact that you clearly hadn't read it and started labelling it as 'flawed' without having read it.

Its my thread so I have to defend it or, as I have done in the past, acknowledge it is in error.

What the other readers will wonder is why, even if you were right, why would you spend so much time repeating the same points over and over again - and what they may guess is that you have a left over grivance from the fact that I have previously called you out for your stalking and that you now try to jump on my threads to carry out a revenge for your long past grudge match.

Interesting isn't that of all of the states in the Union the Obama campaign sent Michelle out of her way to campaign in a state that is so completely 'hopeless' isn't it. Interesting that they would do that so soon after a poll that you consider is so flawed, oh yeah its my reading of the pollster that is flawed. So that when he says "Arizona could be a swing state" and I repeat it I am misanalyzing his statements.

And BTW since you don't have the maturity to leave one discussion and re calibrate your emotions the next time, and want to carry out a perpetual grudge match with your kindegarten crying after you have finished your comments trying to repair your inane comments from the begining I will make you my 3rd ignore and request that you do the same.

[woolldog]

79. weird

Generally I will respond to someone who responds to me. That's not stalking. That's called discourse. How odd that you would say that. No one was forcing you to respond to me. And if you hadn't responded, I wouldn't have responded.

As for "revenge" and a "perpetual grudge match" and so on. Are you kidding me? I recall one conflict with you a while ago, and many pleasant, and no negative, exchanges since.

Bizarre.

edit: as for my ignore list, I've cleared it completely recently and don't expect to add to it. Feel free to ignore me though.

[grantcart]

95. your reply on 64 asked for information that was supplied in the OP

Everyone observing your obtuse behavior on this thread can make their own judgements.


I refuse to waste my time on somebody that pisses on a thread without reading, then hijacks it with repetitive meme that have been proven to be untrue or fallacious and now asks me basic questions that were already answered in the OP.

You jumped in a thread that examined polls going back 2 years that involved researching the background of the pollster and a parsing of why somebody who has been the President of the Phoenix Chamber of Commerce would be saying that McCain "could be in a horse race in Arizona" and at the same time the Obama campaign is, strangely enough increasing its campaign activity by sending Michelle Obama there shortly after the polls have come out even though there are no primaries or caucuses there.

The primary thrust of the OP has been clearly stated, carefully researched, and all of the original sources carefully cited.

Yet within a short few minutes of the posting you have posted unsupported, threadbare criticism stating simply "It is flawed" with no countervailing sources or seperate polling data to reinforce one statement of your criticism.

Now you have spent the last hours repeating the same points, with no discourse despite the fact that additional information including the fact that McCain only achieved 50% in the Arizona Republican Party Primary and the fact that the Obama has dispensed its most valuable surrogate Michelle Obama to campaign in Phoenix not too long after the poll was issued.

Nothing you have brought forth has diminished, qualified or undermined the basic premise of the OP that McCain is surprisingly soft in his home state and that if current trends were to continue that it would be a "horse race" and McCain would have to expend resources in his home state to make sure that it doesn't become a full fledged swing state with the possibilitiy of going for Obama in the General Election.

[woolldog]

108. Look, I just don't agree with the conclusions you draw from the data.

I've explained why, so let's leave it at that.

[grantcart]

112. Its not my conclusion I was quoting the conclusions of the pollster

but it was clear that you didn't bother to read it.

[grantcart]

53. pls see response upthread

[cliffordu]

69. Why is this Republican talking point even ON this board??

Isn't that the common wisdom, that Obama cannot win against McCain?

I say Az is in play "Real Soon Now"(TM), from what my AZ friends are telling me....

Just first person/anecdotal, for sure, but folks are pissed off everywhere....

[Neshanic]

84. They dream alot they do. Not happening. Not ever.

[Neshanic]

85. dupe

[SoCalDem]

55. Re-electing Mccain over and over is a habit..like nail-biting or thumb-sucking

I was hoping that Obama would choose Napolitano as his runningmate.. we COULD take Arizona then.. they LOVE her and in 8 yrs SHE would be the REAL woman's candidate for presidency, having been a governor and vice president..and she'd only be 58 ..

[grantcart]

57. The last poll showed only 9 point difference

McCain is polling under 50%

34% of Arizonans don't believe he has the answers for Iraq and the economy.

He is likely to get a bounce next week and then when he announces his VP somebody like Webb might do well in Arizona don't you think?

Do you still think its far feteched for Obama to make it close in AZ?

[SoCalDem]

58. I don't know much about Arizona, but I cannot see ANYONE getting all excited about Mccain

He's old and out of touch..

[grantcart]

62. alot of people don't realize that AZ is the fastest growing state of the union

and that 30% of the voters there now did not live there in 2000.

[cliffordu]

73. DING DING DING We have a winner!!! Exactly right.

That could be the difference right there....

[cliffordu]

74. I'm going to have to read more about her. I like what I've seen so far.

[SoCalDem]

76. wikipedia has a great write up about her

:)

[Mezzo]

59. that'd be great. because after OBama's finance guy had that wink wink meeting with Canada

Ohio might not be that easy, and I need an electoral map steeped in the TRUTH, not hope and ponies.

[grantcart]

60. Well that's one thing we don't have to worry about - the Obama campaign

has had a sharp eye for putting its resources where it gets the biggest return.

Kind of makes you wonder why Michelle is campaigning in Arizona doesn't it?

[cliffordu]

70. Yes, Yes it does. I just love the fact they are playing an ENTIRELY

different game than these other slugs....

[cliffordu]

66. which is specious bullshit and you know it.

Death throes of a campaign, indeed.....I hope you're getting paid up front, her checks are no good...

[Pushed To The Left]

80. That would be sweet! Beating McCain in his own backyard! n/t

[cliffordu]

81. Kicked and recommended...

Great work Grantcart, as per usual....

[Neshanic]

83. So polls about Obama barely winning in other states you ignore, but Arizona not voting for McCain?

Massively delusional.

[FrenchieCat]

86. What is delusional is anyone thinking that Hillary can win anything

once she is attacked in the way that the GOP and she have attacked Obama.

That is what is massively delusional.

[Neshanic]

88. Obviously you do not live here, and if you did and believe Obama can win, that even stranger.

[woolldog]

90. be careful, Neshaic

if you question the interpretation of these numbers you'll be called a stalker with a personal vendetta!

[Neshanic]

93. God forbid I break the little bubbble they live in.

[grantcart]

102. Your the one stalking me I don't go to your threads

These aren't my numbers they are the numbers of the Arizona primary in which McCain only got 50%

and the polling done by major Phoenix movers that are saying that it is close and about to become closer.

And it definitely was not me that sent Michelle Obama to campaign in Phoenix last week.

[woolldog]

107. So posting in other people's thread is stalking now?

My god, this board would cease to exist if people didn't post in other people's threads. I post in a lot of threads. I don't go around looking for your threads to post in. You really do have a high opinion of yourself don't you?

I'm sure you've posted in some of my threads. And if you haven't your welcome to if you feel like it. Sheesh.

[grantcart]

109. your the one accusing me of stalking you but you are here

I have avoided your threads for sometime given the hostility that you show. I cannot avoid you in my own thread or I would. Your assertion that I stalk you by responding to you in my own thread is a perfect reflection of the quality of your logic.

[woolldog]

114. the "stalker" accusation was a joke,

based on you saying I was stalking b/c I respond to your responses. Good god. Do you take everything so seriously?

Really I'm saddened that you feel I've been hostile to you or that my criticisms of your conclusions on this thread reflect some deep seated hostility towards you. (I think if you reread this thread later you'll see that's not the case.) That would also require from me, a level of caring and investment about what's said here that is a little ridiculous. I think you take yourself too seriously, but whatever.

[cliffordu]

92. And you started speaking for all of Arizona when, exactly??

What part of Obama and his campaign dismantling the Clinton/dlc war machine did you just miss???

Do you think he can turn the 1.5 MILLION donors into 5 million donors? into 10 million?

Perhaps you don't understand he is changing the way this game is played.

Let's watch what happens when he doesn't have to treat Gramps with the same kid gloves he did hillary....


This is all going to be very entertaining.

[Neshanic]

94. So I assume you do not live here.

[cliffordu]

97. No but I spent a month on a bicycle there once.....

Real fucked up state ya got there -

I have friends in and around Phoenix and of course Big Johnny lives in near Flagstaff

My biological father lived in Yuma for years. I have half sisters that still do....

If the polls get closer early enough it'll inhibit Gramps from getting all the donations he might otherwise get.


Did you catch where Obama is having his little shindig where the GOP is going to have it's convention....?

This is not by chance. These folks leave nothing that counts directly to getting elected to chance. The pastorbating not withstanding, he has run a flawless campaign....

I wouldn't be surprised at all if he concentrates specifically on McCains home turf.


In the long run, I don't really care what happens in AZ.

But Grantcart deserves respect for the work he does here.

[Desertrose]

131. Actually McCain has a ranch right outside of Sedona...

Sure,there are a lot of diehards who love the man...but there are many who know how badly he screwed the Navajo & Hopi with the whole Bennet Freeze thing.(Google tha one folks)

McCain is not especially well liked by a LOT of people who live in Az .
And as for all the newbies here...a whole lot are libs & indys.

There maybe a lot of conservatives but there are some large pockets of Dems in N AZ & down in Tucson.

I live here & I wouldn't be too quick to give AZ so easily to McCain. If Obama could snag Janet for vp...well...McCain would be sweating more than he already is.

Just my 2¢.
DR

[grantcart]

98. I don't believe he will win or lose

I am however quoting a poll done by a non poliltical Arizona heavy weight who was 16 years President of the Phoenix Chamber of Commerce and states that if the Democrats resolve their differences and unify that it will be a "horse race". Besides typing the word dellusional on your keyboard do you have any countervailing facts that would challenge that statement?

[Neshanic]

100. We will just see election night. I will remind you of your post and you can say I told you so, or

me to you.

[grantcart]

104. Nothing in the thread makes a prediciton on election night

this is just another strawman Clinton style.


It does state that it is unusually close and that if it continues, especially after Obama becomes the presumptive nominee it is likely to get a lot closer. The title specifically says that the lead is 11 points and could shrink from that. There is another poll showing a 9 point difference but I didn't include that because they didn't seem to have the background that BRC does.


http://www.azpbs.org/horizon/poll/2008/4-29-08.htm

here are the headlines

Arizonans will vote for McCain but see a potentially tight race in November

Big anti-Clinton vote found in Arizona

Contentious primary doesn’t appear to be hurting the Democrats

Despite public squabble, Arpaio and Gordon receive high marks

Napolitano receives high job ratings, Bush rated low



If McCain has to spend one dime or run a single TV commercial defending his homes state then the premise of the OP will have been proved

[cliffordu]

87. Why would you possibly find it valuable to slime one of the most

valuable DU'ers around???

Grantcart has put up consistently great results on these polls -

I think you are just maybe a little jealous of the man...

Or maybe you are just hateful.

[Neshanic]

89. Lets put this one aside for election night. Obama will not win AZ.

[grantcart]

96. question: can you tell me what percentage of the vote McCain got in his home state

primary?

[Neshanic]

99. It's useless to go on with Obamamath. Lets see on election night. Believe me I will remember this

idiotic premise.

[grantcart]

101. There is no promise simply quoting Arizona experts on the tightening

race in Arizona which became all the more interesting when Michelle Obama showed up to campaign there. An electoral victory is not the only goal - if they make McCain look weak in his own home state then he will have to spend time and resources there to defend it as he did in bringing Bush there.

By the way the answer to the question that you could not answer was 50%. Senator McCain could only generate 50% support in his own home state primary.

Oh and about that Obamamath- that is what is the main difference with the Clinton campaign - they never figured out how important a place like Idaho was and instead of making even a token effor there to reduce the margin of victory let Obama sweep it.

I got news for you the McCains are about to get a real lesson in Obamamath.

[Neshanic]

105. You do not understand the dymanics of what is going on here right now.

and if you did live here, say thirty years, and see what is going on politically and with Janet and her issues with items that are going to come back and bite her in the ass on her massive transportation freeway building boondoggle,a gift to the developers, plus the complete and almost total collapse of the states economy then you would take those polls with a bit more care.

Just as other here are for some bizzare reason saying that because we are the fastest growing state, does not an Obama win make. To the horror of the midwesterners that have a conspiracy theory that we have a master plan for stealing their water, the people moving here are like the same wave that came in the 90's recession from the midwest. People with no place to go. Of course the influx of Californians did do some moderating with the huge influx that occured in the building boom that collapsed,1998-2005, this is not the case now.

Do all the polling you like. There are more McCain stickers on cars than Obama by a massive margin, but that is not a true test of who will win, as are some polls that just are fucking wrong.

Obama blue-skying really only goes so far. I think this is a prime example.

[grantcart]

110. Its not my understanding - its rather well connected people like Haynes that are saying

it and that is why before I posted it I did some research on him. Again with the sraw horse on the GE night which was not raised.

Again the pollsters are saying that it could be a horse race and at only 9% point difference now it doesn't seem to be far from that.

Funny how those stickers didn't help McCain from his rather tepid 50% primary polling figures quite an embarassing low figures for a

Presidential candidate to face in his own home state in his own primary.

I am in Arizona on a bi weekly basis and haven't seen any bumper stickers but wouldn't put any significance on them if I did -

I think the sources cited and the primary figures are a more substantial reflection.

BTW there are several AZ DUers upthread who disagree with you - don't forget to tell them that they don't know what they are talking about either.

[VotesForWomen]

103. more self-indulgence from inside the cocoon. nt

[Neshanic]

106. Got that right.

[grantcart]

111. Besides petty insults typical of the Clinton campaign do you actually have a

point, a fact or an argument?

[goclark]

118. Tx you grantcart for bringing reality

to the picture.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

116. 50 states. McPoor is gonna have problems.

[dsomuah]

117. That's not gonna happen is it??

OMG!! Do you know how embarrassing it would be for McCain if he lost Arizona? That would be priceless!!

But I think the McCain campaign will do whatever they have to do, and spend whatever they have to spend to make sure that doesn't happen. The best we can do is galvanize our volunteers in AZ, conduct voter registration excercises, and keep the state in play and force the GOP to spend more of their scarce cash there than they would like.

Hell I'll spend a few days in AZ registering voters if it'll keep the state in play.

[BlooInBloo]

119. Please do! The point isn't so much to win all of the states, as it is to force McCain...

to spend his finite resources in places where he doesn't want to, allowing Obama to spend more, and win in close states.

Secondarily, building up the Democratic brand in all 50 states prepares for some time in the future, when we actually *could* win "republican" states.

[grantcart]

120. Obviously he can't lose Arizona and not be a laughingstock so if it gets close

he will have to defend his home turf.

Another 4-5 points for Obama which could come from a 'unity bounce' and a VP pick and McCain would have to start spending his money in his home state.

[Imagevision]

123. I'm anxious for Obama to start dealing with McBush after disposing of the Clintons...

[grantcart]

124. Gallup today shows most Americans agree with Obama in talking with Iran

and this was McCain's biggest point

[sonias]

129. Oh that would really hurt

But you know all is fair in war and campaigns right?

GOBAMA!

Sonia

[Zambero]

130. A lot of other "red" states will become competive as well...

As soon as all cylinders of Obama's campaign are firing and focused on McBush. Watch out for Montana, Georgia, North Carolina, Alaska, Louisina, and ?????????????

[sonias]

134. And Texas

Don't you dare write us off. This is going to be our best year ever!

Obamanos Tejas!

Sonia

[Zambero]

140. Oops, Sorry!

I have faith in ya!

[muryan]

132. The importance of this is that with Obamas fundraising

He can put boots on the ground in Arizona. That in turn forces McCain to do the same. This is why his small donor/internet campaign is something that the GOP is really afraid of. The other day someone posted an email from Delay trying to round up funds for the RNC and he specifically mentioned Obamas ability to raise large amounts of money in small doses, and his huge amount of volunteers that can make even the reddest states, ones that they have to spend money in. Every dime spent in Arizona is one that isn't spent in Ohio, Colorado, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Michigan, Wisconsin, etc.

[Old and In the Way]

133. This doesn't seem to be too far fetched.

I don't know the AZ political situation, but if Obama can get to 5 points this summer, anything is possible. If McCain makes some major-league boners or has some more problems with his lobbyist corruption issues, there could be an upset in the making. Obviously, favorite sons should have a huge advantage in their state, but 50% is not impressive.

Great analysis.....sorry that the Hillary supporters on this thread are so bitter about their candidates impending exit from the race.

[grantcart]

137. On follow up I actually called the Pollsters and got even more background

They are very well established and also run the better known Rocky Mountain brand and have been doing polls for 40 years.

They are completely non partisan and the major polling operation in AZ.

They have substantial polling data from all of their other ongoing work that demonstrates that AZ political climate is changing radically and that it is only a matter of time before AZ is considered a true "swing" state.

Putting the polling aside is the fact that McCain only pulled 50% of the primary vote.

This is going to be a big story and we are preparing a permanent "Arizona Watch" to bring light to all of McCain's problems in his own back yard.

The disrupters in the thread were not all Clinton supporters.

Thanks for your comments.

[rateyes]

135. A good reason to perhaps choose Napolitano as Veep.

[Yavapai]

136. As much as I like Napolitano as my Governor,

I think Richardson from New Mexico would be a better choice for vice president. He would bring the
Latino vote and, to me, he seems like he would balance the ticket really well.

I think Napolitano would make a great replacement for Sen. Kyl or McCain, when the opportunity arises.

[grantcart]

138. or a cabinet position

[grantcart]

139. Great speech Senator McCain

SENATOR MCCAINS IDIOTIC SPEECH JUST MADE MY POINT

THE PEOPLE IN ARIZONA WHO KNOW HIM BEST ARE NOT IMPRESSED

ARIZONA WILL MOVE CLOSER AND WE CAN EVEN TALK IN TERMS OF

ARIZONA BEING A SWING STATE

ITS THAT BAD

[Zambero]

141. I fell asleep half-way through

It was pretty bad alright!

[grantcart]

142. AZ consumer confidence shows sharpest drop in 16 years

Phoenix, Arizona. June 3, 2008. The level of consumer confidence in the economy among
Arizonans has dropped sharply to 73.4 from 79.8 in January and 101.9 last July. This is the lowest
reading in 16 years when in 1992 the confidence index sank to 67.6. The Consumer Confidence Index,
compared to January, is lower in every region of the state, driven principally by loss of confidence in the
current economy, business confidence and employment.


Looking ahead, consumers show little improvement in their expectations, the current reading
at 76.0, compared to 75.3 in January and the much more robust 97.4 reading registered last summer.
It should be noted that this may not represent the lowest levels to which Consumer Confidence
can sink. In Arizona, the Index fell to 56.6 in 1990 and to 54.7 in 1982 – the record low.



http://www.brcpolls.com/08/RMP%202008-II-03.pdf