THE MATH (Primary Edition) – Saturday, May 31 – After Rules & Bylaws Decisions

[phrigndumass]

THE MATH (Primary Edition) – Saturday, May 31 – After Rules & Bylaws Decisions

7:45 p.m. Eastern Time (US)

Delegates needed to win nomination – 2,118.0
Pledged Delegates in – 3,330.0 of 3,416.0 – 97.5%

********************************************

TOTAL DELEGATES

Estimated Total Delegates:
Barack Obama – 2,051.0 … (67.0 short)
Hillary Clinton – 1,878.5 … (239.5 short)
Remaining Total Delegates – 290.5

SUPERDELEGATES

Superdelegates:
Barack Obama – 328.5
Hillary Clinton – 292.0
Remaining Superdelegates – 204.5

PLEDGED DELEGATES

Estimated Pledged Delegates:
Barack Obama – 1,722.5 … (14.5 above HALF) <--- Pelosi Club number reached
Hillary Clinton – 1,586.5 … (121.5 short of HALF)
Remaining Pledged Delegates – 86.0

********************************************

EXPECTED DELEGATES FOR OBAMA:

24 pledged delegates from Puerto Rico
10 pledged delegates from Montana
9 pledged delegates from South Dakota
5 superdelegates from Pelosi Club
19 add-on superdelegates from Obama states won

67 additional delegates expected.

2,051
+ 67
-------
2,118 TOTAL ... HE FUCKING WON THIS!

********************************************

Link to my journal … Click on the link to view all past editions of THE MATH:
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/phrigndumass

********************************************


Please keep this thread bumped for easier access in GDP.



.
(edited to add expected delegates)

[Andy823]

1. K&R nt

[myrna minx]

2. Looks like I missed quite a day.

That'll teach me to garden all day while all hell apparently broke loose.

[phrigndumass]

8. lol ... did you drag the couch out to the garden?

:7



:hi:

[myrna minx]

16. Well, yes. I languidly ate peeled grapes as well.

:D Or, I could actually be covered in mud because I was caught in a melodramatic thunderstorm. :hi: But it does look like all the real drama was at the committee. I'm glad recorded until 4pm, but it looks like I didn't catch the true fireworks.

[phrigndumass]

20. Melodramatic thunderstorms are the best

I watched the whole show today. Lots of disruptors inside the meeting room yelling "DEN-VER DEN-VER" ... as they apparently weren't pleased with the results. They wanted 100% seating.

My maternal unit used to chew the pits out of pitted grapes before giving us the grape chyme. YUCK!

:hi:

[myrna minx]

38. Wow. I can't imagine the spectacle.

I absolutly love thunderstorms, but looking up and the sky looks like a "mothership" hovering over the city is a bit awe inspiring. The sky ripped open and unleashed hell and hail, while I could see the sun shining in the west. It was pretty amazing.

So...your mother gave you "pre-enjoyed" grapes? :D

[rocktivity]

13. Cspan.com has already archived it, and is re-broadcasting within an hour

Or you can read the official DU threads.

:headbang:
rocknation

[myrna minx]

17. Thanks. I set my recorder to go until 4pm, so I missed the true drama, it appears.

:hi:

[rocktivity]

23. To cut to the chase

Check out the DU Video forums for the highlights, LOL!

:headbang:
rocknation

[myrna minx]

39. Thanks. I'm trying to catch up now. All I can say so far is wow.

I'm a bit speechless. :hi:

[Ravy]

3. Are you sure the number to win is correct?

They added over 300 delegates today. Seems like the number should go up more. They made a point of saying that they got the full delegation restored rather than half of the delegation, even though each delegate gets half of a vote.

I haven't seen an official count one way or another. Hope this isn't a new point of contention that was overlooked by the rules committee.

[dbmk]

10. The number still only goes up with 0,5 for each delegate.

[phrigndumass]

15. (pssst ... HIGH FIVE!)

:toast:

[dbmk]

24. At least they keep guys like us busy, phrig. :)

I want support phrig in this. The wording was quite clear. Full delegate numbers, but casting ½ a vote each. And its the vote total we are concerned with.

Guam is the same fx. - 8 delegates casting half a vote each. They are counted for a total of 4 delegate votes.

[Ravy]

19. Why? I understood otherwise.

If they don't put out some clarification on this, they made (another) huge blunder today. It would be horrible if they left the number to win up to interpretation and debate.

[phrigndumass]

21. It was the wording of the motions, there were no blunders

The wording of the motions were extremely detailed. I watched the whole process unfold on C-SPAN. They first arrived at a delegate count, then halved everything, including the superdelegate votes.

No ambiguity.

:hi:

[Ravy]

25. I watched, too. They said they were seating the full delegation, not half.

Then they halved the votes. But I think the rules say your vote total needs to be over half of the delegates seated. Trying to look that up now.

[phrigndumass]

30. I actually wrote it down as they were making the motions

69/59, halved, 34.5 for Clinton, 29.5 for Obama in Michigan.

105/65, halved, 52.5 for Clinton, 33.5 for Obama in Florida.

All supers in both states are halved.

If anyone is telling you differently, they are either trying to fill you with doubt or pulling your leg.

[Ravy]

42. No, that much is right. Those are the votes.

I am talking about the number of votes needed to get the nomination, which was supposed to be half of the "delegate" count, not a majority of the votes. The delegate count in Florida and Michigan was not cut. They made a point of keeping it at full strength.

[phrigndumass]

12. Yes, I'm sure :)

They added 300 halved delegates today.

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

4. Expected delegates for Obama ...

24 pledged delegates from Puerto Rico
10 pledged delegates from Montana
9 pledged delegates from South Dakota
5 superdelegates from Pelosi Club
19 add-on superdelegates from Obama states won

67 additional delegates expected.

2,051
+ 67
-------
2,118.00 TOTAL ... HE FUCKING WON THIS!

[Aloha Spirit]

7. Did you include the Edwards delegates from Florida that have already expressed support for Obama?

I think it was like 9, so 4.5 votes?

[phrigndumass]

9. Not yet, so we can add those as a buffer, lol

:toast:

[Aloha Spirit]

5. I'm glad you posted that Obama still has the majority of pledged delegates.

Saves me from having to post it!

[berni_mccoy]

6. OBAMA HAS CLINCHED THE NOMINATION: DemConWatch Scenario 3 Applies

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/05/fl-mi-by-numbers_21.html

PD Majority = 1705

Obama has 1724.

It. Is. Over.

[phrigndumass]

11. It's a cooked duck! It's a done deal! Elvis has left the building!

:toast: :hi:

[BigAnth]

14. K&R

[TexasObserver]

18. Thanks. He'll declare victory Tuesday night

[phrigndumass]

22. Cheers!

:toast:

[HughMoran]

26. Is it national brain-fart day ?

This race has been over for weeks - what's with the drama and "FUCKING" bullshit.

No wonder I stopped posting in GDP - this place is mentally deficient.

[phrigndumass]

28. It's been over for months.

Apologies for the curse word if you're offended. Call it drama if you like, but thickness and nearsightedness abound in this particular forum. It's necessary to state the obvious in a very direct way to get your point across to those in denial.

Were you aware of the DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee meeting on Florida and Michigan today?

:hi:

[HughMoran]

31. I came in here specifically to judge the "mood" after the decision

I can't blame you for stating the obvious I suppose - there really should be nothing more to discuss other than how we're gonna beat McCain.

[phrigndumass]

33. On that, I completely agree

This particular forum, imho, should have ceased to be quite a while back. I've already begun posting General Election math threads to help determine the scope of the swing states. Some folks are better at discussing the issues than I, or the "what" and "why" ... I'm more of a "where" and "how" poster. We need all these facets to beat McCain.

In case you're interested, here's a link:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6185366

:hi:

[bigbrother05]

27. ...

:toast: :bounce: :party: :hi:

[phrigndumass]

29. Click!

:toast: :party:

[housewolf]

32. DemConWatch.com says he only needs 64 more

I don't know where your number differ or who's right, but just wanted to say that there's a discrepency.

[phrigndumass]

34. Must be the source ... I used AP

Even so, we've got those 64 in the bag, easily.

:toast: :hi:

[Laura PourMeADrink]

35. K&R I've been waiting for you all day ! Thanks !!! You state it

so succinctly. so you are saying he can win without another single SD? CCCC-Cool

You rock. Great job as usual !

[phrigndumass]

44. Yes dear, he can win it with add-ons and pledged delegates only

But even that won't stop the flood of elected supers! :loveya:

[Laura PourMeADrink]

51. Hi Darlin. Wolfie about to give exits on PR. They also said that

their guesstimate is that he needs 27 SDs (after they apportioned PDs from today and Tues (in a very generous way to HC))

Surely, O's got 27 lined up. Like to see Biden and Gore and Clinton on Tues night on the Daily Show - wouldn't that be cool - oh wait, that's taped at 5:30 e. They all are, I guess. Maybe they could do it the next night - It's got to be something everyone watches - shit...too bad American Idol's over for the season.

P.S. My prediction - she won't drop out until at least the Credential appeal on MI.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

52. kick for phrig

[phrigndumass]

54. The add-ons are all lined up, he'll win other supers as well.

I'm listening to Wolfie right now, thanks for the heads-up! The neighbors probably think I'm hard of hearing ... the television is in the spare bedroom next to my office, and I have the volume turned up loud enough to hear from there.

The Credentials Committee meets at the convention in August in Denver, just before the actual convention. If they're still whining all the way through August, they will certainly be vilified.

It was so strange this year seeing presidential candidates on AI! LOL!

:loveya:

[Laura PourMeADrink]

56. just posted something on Bill - I heard on Faux a minute ago -

big bombshell article coming out in VF Wed. About Bill's anger and his rich friends he's hangin with and
his "women on the road.'"

[Laura PourMeADrink]

57. i just heard them say she will win 60-40 in PR yuck

[phrigndumass]

58. That's not far from what we thought would happen, plus turnout is low

I projected a 13-point win for Clinton, with high turnout. The folks who disapprove statehood seem to be avoiding the polls, and they generally support Obama (I just saw that on CNN, don't know if it's true or not) ...

[dascientist]

36. K&R

[habitual]

37. thank you, K&R

I thanked grantcart earlier for the efforts put into all 'the math' posts and would like to thank you as well, as i know you work somewhat in tandem.

Your efforts are very appreciated.

[phrigndumass]

45. yw habitual, and thanks for your kind words!

:blush: :hi:

Now if we can just get grantcart to use more smileys ... :rofl:

[Buzz Clik]

40. Thanks, ya phrigndumass

;)

I jumped the gun earlier today, but I certainly appreciate you running these numbers again.

This was a bit more definitive that when we were still speculating this morning.

[phrigndumass]

43. yw, BC =)

Hope I didn't seem too testy yesterday morning, lol. I spent quite a bit of time debunking that scenario, but doing the math for it actually helped me too. So a belated thanks to you for asking me to do it for you. :D

[TBF]

41. I love math :)

[The Stranger]

46. k

[Coexist]

47. WOOT!

[fight4my3sons]

48. love it! Thanks!

Missed ya last night, had a dance recital to go to, but happy to see this here this morning.

[phrigndumass]

49. Soothes the soul, doesn't it?

:hi:

[mikekohr]

50. WOO HOO!!!!!

mike kohr

[Laura PourMeADrink]

53. Kick for Phrig

[MilesColtrane]

55. And it's GOOD!!

Obama wins despite Clinton's team moving the goal posts!