Get Your Scorecard Get your Scorecard for tomorrow's DNC Rules and Bylaw Playoff Game

[grantcart]

Figures come from DemconWatch the very most authoritative source for all delegate matters

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/05/fl-mi-by-numbers_21.html

Standings before the game starts - Game gets called on account of rain - no changes Scenario 1

Delegates Available: 4049.0 Nomination: 2025.0 PD majority: 1627.0

. . . . Pledged Delegates . . . Super Delegates . . . Total . . . Need to Win . . .Percent of remaining delegates to win

Obama . . . .1660.5 . . . . . . . . .323.5 . . . . . . 1984 . . . . . .41 . . . . . . . .14.4%

Clinton . . .1499.5 . . . . . . . . . 281.5 . . . . . . 1781 . . . . . .244. . . . . . . . 86%

Remaining . . .86 + 7 (Edwards). . .191 . . . . . . . .284

Game Scenario 2: FL 1/2 vote, MI 69-59 split and Super full vote

Delegates Available: 4324.5 Nomination: 2162.5 PD majority: 1737.0

. . . . Pledged Delegates . . . Super Delegates . . . Total . . . Need to Win . . .Percent of remaining delegates to win

Obama . . . .1754 . . . . . . . . .333.5 . . . . . . 2087.5. . . . . .75 . . . . . . . .23.4%

Clinton . . .1621 . . . . . . . . . 296.5 . . . . . . . 1917.5 . . . . . .245. . . . . . . . 76%

Remaining . .86 + 12.5(Edwards). . .221 . . . . . . . .319.5

Game Scenario 3: FL/MI all half votes, pledged and supers

Delegates Available: 4233.0 Nomination: 2117.0 PD majority: 1705.0

. . . . Pledged Delegates . . . Super Delegates . . . Total . . . Need to Win . . .Percent of remaining delegates to win

Obama . . . .1706 . . . . . . . . .328.5 . . . . . . 2034.5. . . . . .82.5 . . . . . . . .25.7%

Clinton . . .1588.5. . . . . . . . . 289 . . . . . . . 1877.5 . . . . . .239.5 . . . . . . . 75%

Remaining . .86 + 12.5(Edwards). . .222.5 . . . . . . . .321

Scenario 4 almost the same as 3

Game Scenario 5: Seat FL & MI based on the elections that have taken place.

(Obama gets 22 of 55 MI uncommitted)
Delegates Available: 4417.0 Nomination: 2209.0 PD majority: 1783.5

. . . . Pledged Delegates . . . Super Delegates . . . Total . . . Need to Win . . .Percent of remaining delegates to win

Obama . . . .1751.5 . . . . . . . . .333.5 . . . . . . 2085.5. . . . . .124 . . . . . . . .34.6%

Clinton . . .1677.5. . . . . . . . . 296.5 . . . . . . . 1974 . . . . . .235 . . . . . . . . 66%

Remaining . .86 + 18(Edwards). . . . .222.5 . . . . . . . .358

You can see more details at the link above.

The most favorable outcome for Senator Clinton would still leave her needing 66% of the remaining delegates, including the Edwards delegates. It is thought highly unlikely that she would prevail at that level. Almost certainly Senator Clinton will end the day requiring 75-85% of all of the remaining delegates to be chosen.

http://thepage.time.com/release-on-dnc-rules-bylaws-committee-meeting/

Release on DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee Meeting

WASHINGTON - The Democratic National Committee’s Rules & Bylaws Committee will meet on Saturday May 31, 2008 in Washington, DC. The Rules and Bylaws Committee will consider the two challenges that have been filed pursuant to Rule 20.B of the 2008 Delegate Selection Rules and Regulation 3 of the Regulations of the Rules and Bylaws Committee concerning the seating of delegations from Florida and Michigan.

Pursuant to Section 3.4(N) of the Committee’s Regulations, each challenger will be entitled to present an Oral Argument before the RBC prior to Committee consideration for a period of 15 minutes each. A representative from each state party and from each presidential campaign will also have an opportunity to address the committee regarding each of the challenges. Oral arguments from the parties will be heard during the committee’s morning session. Following a lunch break, committee members will consider and debate the challenges.

What: DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee Meeting
When: May 31, 2008 - 9:30 AM
Morning Session: Oral Arguments
Afternoon Session: Consideration and Debate
Where: Marriott Wardman Park Hotel - Salon I

Here are a list of the Committee members and their affiliations to campaigns if known:

Simply because a Rules Committee member has endorsed or contributed to a candidate it should be understood that for most of the members their committment to the party has been developed over decades and has a higher priority than the association to a particular candidate.

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/04/rules-and-bylaws-committee-membership.html
The Players

Co-Chairs - no endorsement
Alexis Herman (co-chair, Washington , D.C. )
James Roosevelt, Jr. (co-chair, Massachusetts )

Members - Clinton supporters (13)
Hartina Flournay (DC)
Donald Fowler (SC)
Harold Ickes, Jr. (DC)
Jaime Gonzalez, Jr. (TX)
Alice Huffman (CA)
Ben Johnson (DC)
Elaine Kamarck (MA)
Eric Kleinfeld (DC)
Mona Pasquil (CA)
Mame Reiley (VA)
Garry Shay (CA)
Elizabeth Smith (DC)
Michael Steed (MD)

Members - Obama supporters (8)
Martha Fuller Clark (NH)
Carol Khare Fowler (SC)
Janice Griffin (MD)
Thomas Hynes (IL)
Allan Katz (FL)
Sharon Stroschein (SD)
Sarah Swisher (IA)
Everett Ward (NC)

Members - no known endorsement (7)
Donna Brazille (DC)
Mark Brewer (MI)
Ralph Dawson (NY)
Yvonne Gates ( NV)
Alice Germond (DC) - DNC Secretary
David McDonald (WA)
Jerome Wiley Segovia (VA)



Note that Katz can vote on Michigan's challenge, and Brewer can vote on Florida's challenge.

* Ralph Dawson is one of the very few New York superdelegates that have not endorsed Clinton.


Rules and Bylaws of the Committee
http://s3.amazonaws.com/apache.3cdn.net/6db9de2c969d3fd055_2bm6ib44l.pdf



Edited to add Cspan link

which will be streaming the meeting
http://www.c-span.org/

Thankds to VoteSomeMore

[Yael]

1. Sweet!!

Thanks Grantcart!

[Condem]

2. Who's this Harold Ickes, Jr. cat?

[grantcart]

6. an old timer playing under a cloud of suspicion

[Condem]

8. The name sounded familiar, grantcart.

I have to work all day, but I look forward to your posts tomorrow evening. You don't fully know how much we appreciate your work! Thanks again, sir!

[grantcart]

12. Oh I thought you were joking Ickes is an old supporter of the Clintons and is a

part of their campaign - he is the least neutral one of the entire group.

As I said above I wouldn't put too much stock into the candidate loyalties as listed.

[Condem]

13. I was joking, grantcart.

I will be surprised if anything earth shattering comes out of this. If there is something in Clintons favor, there will be Hell to pay.

[Capn Sunshine]

21. I've worked with Harold Ickes in the past

In my capacity as a CA State Central Committee member and my work as an AD delegate. I worked with him on Clinton-Gore, and here in CA.

Mr. Ickes might be a partisan , as am, I but I have nothing but respect for his dedication to the Party and I can tell you that when the time comes , and the clock is running, it will be Harold who delivers the news.

He's completely trustworthy, folks , and just because he comes from the Clinton side of the party doesn't automatically make him a bad guy.

Most online posters really don't understand the Party structure and nuance of the primary system anyway.

[grantcart]

25. well its an interesting point and you obviously know him better than

we do but he appears as slightly better than MacAuliffe just a hired gun that will say anything.

But I hope that you are right - we are about to learn a lot about many of these people.

In any case at several points I have said that I didn't think that the campaign affiliations were that significant with the people on this committe because they have a much older tie to the party as a whole.

Would you agree and what is your guess for what happens tomorrow?

[rurallib]

3. Well I am having some folks in - some brew some chips

Kickoff is 8:30 central time. Kind of early to drink, but we have done it before. True fans are up to it.

[grantcart]

4. the key is to stay up all night the night before and then you have been drinking for hours.

[rurallib]

5. Hey good odea! Where can I get some Hillary tapes to get me

revved up for the main show?

[cliffordu]

7. Grantcart, my friend, more great work!!

How do you find the time??

[bigbrother05]

9. I am going to pick 2

[gateley]

10. K&R -- Thanks!! nt

[briv1016]

11. When does the meeting end tomorrow?

[grantcart]

15. I have a meeting at 3:00 Eastern so they have to be finished by then

[cliffordu]

19. LOL

[Why Syzygy]

14. Thanks!

That's handy!

It will be streaming >

http://www.c-span.org/

And the site has an archive of the August meeting which set the backdrop.
Aug. 2007 Bylaws & Rules Mtg.

[Lakerstan]

22. It will also be on C- SPAN TV

http://inside.c-spanarchives.org:8080/cspan/fullschedule.csp?timeid=212078993016

[grantcart]

27. thanks for the link

[davidpdx]

16. One question

So the two supers who are from FL and MI can vote on the other state's delegate issue, but not their own?

Would this essentially make it 29 voting members for each issue with one abstention?

Thanks as always for putting together the guide for those of us that need it.

Edit: fixed the number in my post

[grantcart]

24. right they cannot vote on their own state challenge

[ProgressiveEconomist]

17. At 13(C), 8(0), 7 undeclared, and 2 cochairs, isn't the deck stacked for HRC?

What happens if the Clinton forces simply force a vote to defer the decision until the Convention?

That's one scenario you haven't laid out.

[grantcart]

23. I think we would have heard a lot of talk from the Obama campaign if they were worried

The reality is that only one of the people on that list is really in the pocket of a campaign Ickes.

The rest are all long time party loyalists who happen to support a candidate but that their support for the party outweighs any obligation they have for this years candidates.

In one way it is a good for Obama. If they rule in Obama's favor Hillary cannot complain that she was under represented.

There is a larger reality and that is even Clinton supporters want it over. Her surrogates have largely indicated that they intend to get off the bus after the primary is over.

[Scooter24]

18. I got my scorecard and my Clinton Voodoo kit!!

:rofl:

[K Gardner]

20. I thought that said Clinton Vodka Kit. I'm gonna need a Bloody Mary. That graphic !!

[grantcart]

29. yes in questionable taste all around

[grantcart]

26. morning kick

[Ichingcarpenter]

28. At 7:45 am ET, about 150 demonstrators

From NBC's Mark Murray
At 7:45 am ET, about 150 demonstrators -- all of them Clinton supporters -- had assembled outside the hotel where the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting will take place today.

The protestors were holding pro-Clinton signs, wearing pro-Clinton T-shirts, and chanting "Count all votes! Count all votes!"

As we were walking into the hotel, the crowd erupted in applause as a car pulled up into the hotel's driveway. Who was in the car? Florida Sen. Bill Nelson, a Clinton supporter.

[Tatiana]

30. Another kick for this very important information

:kick:

[grantcart]

31. kick

[phrigndumass]

32. Phrig's Game Scenario #6, brought to you by Chex Mix

Florida (delegation and results halved):
Clinton - 53 pledged delegates
Obama - 34 pledged delegates
Edwards - 4 pledged delegates (which will end up going to Obama)
Unpledged - 2 add-on superdelegates (other SDs will be denied a vote)

Michigan (delegation halved, results split evenly 50/50, if it even counts at all):
Clinton - 32 pledged delegates
Uncommitted - 32 pledged delegates (almost all of whom will endorse Obama)
Unpledged - 3 add-on superdelegates (other SDs will be denied a vote)

Total outcome:
Clinton - 85 pledged delegates
Obama - 70 pledged delegates

[grantcart]

33. tks

[grantcart]

34. afternoon kick

[hisownpetard]

35. Mid-afternoon kick!

:hi: