Less than 50 to go to the nomination!!!

[stratomagi]

With 3 new add-on SD's from Hawaii Barack Obama has 49 delegates left to go before he wins the nomination!

Todays SD's are

DNC Brian Schatz (HI)
DNC Kari Luna (HI)
James Burns (HI)

all for Obama!

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-endorsement-notes.html

:woohoo::applause:

[stratomagi]

1. I figured this would be slightly more exciting news.

:shrug:

[thewiseguy]

4. HOOOOOOOOOOOOORAY!

:bounce: :bounce: :woohoo: :woohoo: :applause: :applause: :headbang: :headbang:

[skooooo]

2. I was thinking about the Iowa win today...

Waking up the morning after and everyone on the news was amazed. After New Hampshire and Super Tuesday, I was kind of discouraged that he wouldn't win. And now here we are...

CAN YOU BELIEVE IT??????

[stratomagi]

5. I'm waiting till it gets down to 43 delegates left.

That would mean getting a 50/50 split out of the remaining 86 pledged delegates would get him the nom...so that means only 6 superdelegates to go and this thing is in the bag.

But yeah, I'm so happy we're reaching the end and with Obama as our nominee.

[rocktivity]

11. I called Obama's NH loss a moral victory because it was by less than three points

and predicted it would prove to his base that he wasn't a fluke and that the audacity of hope really worked.

:headbang:
rocnation

[Stephanie]

3. I think Tuesday will be a big SD day.

I think many of them will see the wisdom of getting her off the stage ASAP.

[stratomagi]

6. We need at least 6 more to clinch with a 50/50 split of the remaining pledged

delegates, I think you're right and it will be even more than that and MT and SD will put him over the top!

[mckeown1128]

13. If Obama get's ten supers by June 3rd...

He will (by my calc.) get enough to clinch the nom when SD and MT vote... It will be a big success of a day.

[AtomicKitten]

7. Slowly but surely ....

[yodermon]

8. Just thought of something:is he timing the SD "trickle" such that

by June 3 it will be his *pledged* delegate accumulation on *that day* that puts him over the top?
E.g. symbolically he's not using the Supers to "game" the system and clinch it before the last primary?

[housewolf]

9. Not to rain on your parade... but 49 only wiorks if FL & MI aren't counted...

We won't know the actual number needed to win the nomination until FL & MI is settled next week.

49 is a milestone, but it only holds if the DNC Rules Committee denies FL & MI.

[Triana]

10. Yep. The goalposts will change once again when Hillary's RBC meets on the 31st. n/t

[Gore1FL]

12. Worst case scenario

FL is seated as is will All delegates, Hillary gets MI delegates, but none of the 55 uncommitted go to Obama:

2209-2025 = 184
184 + 49 = 233


Obama picks up 69 Pledged Delegates from FL
Obama picks up 5 Super Delegates from FL
Obama picks up 5 Super Delegates from MI

79 delegates total pickup.

233-79 = 154

There would still be the original 287 remaining delegates plus 55 extra from MI, plus 28 uncommited SDs for a total of 370

154/370 = 42% he would need.

under the current accepted rules he needs 49/287 = 17%


Adding MI and FL in a "worst case scenario" for him (which simply will not happen) He still is beating her by substantial margins.