It seems unlikely the democrats will win back the senate

[fujiyama]

The NYTimes has a very nifty senate calculator

http://www.nytimes.com/packages/html/politics/2004_ELECTIONGUIDE_GRAPHIC/

and after playing around, it seems very difficult to win back the senate. The democrats would have to win just about every one of the competetive senate races (and that's not including SC as a competetive race in the first place and assuming the republicans will pick this up).

Now, I hope I'm wrong and I would like to see the dems pick up every one of the races that are considered competetive, but there are so many dem senators retiring and many from relatively conservative states. There's no given that the dems will keep LA and FL, and there's no guarantee that they can beat Lisa Murkowski of AK, even though her dad appointed her to the seat (considering AK is such a red state).

While I'm extremely pessimistic about getting the majority in the senate, I do believe it's very possible and likely Kerry will win the presidency. The House is also unlikely, but with a Kerry victory and some coattails in these key battleground states, we may eek out a majority.

I wanted to make it clear to some that were bitching about Kerry and claiming they would vote in other races, but not the presidential -- THIS IS THE MOST COMPETETIVE OF THE THREE FEDERAL RACES. It is true that Kerry may have a somewhat difficult time with a republican senate, but little if anything at all can be accomplished, even if democrats claim a slim majority in the senate or the house, if the presidency is occupied by Bush.

So don't be stupid -- if you are concerned the direction this country is taking, don't not vote or make a protest vote -- actually vote for the only way something can be accomplished -- Vote for John Kerry.

[Dookus]

1. Put me on record...

as the major contrarian here. The Dems will NOT take back the Senate.. it will be a 50/50 tie.

They WILL take back the House.

On edit: Oh, and Lincoln Chaffee will switch parties in the Spring of '05 giving full control to the Dems.

[tedoll78]

4. I'll take it!

Hell.. I'll take the 50/50 tie. It's a good thing that the Johns know the Senate's workings so well..

[DaveinMD]

7. 50-50

with a Kerry win means Dem control. After we win the special election in Mass, that is.

[rullery]

8. A 50/50 tie would do

Assuming that Kerry wins, a 50/50 tie in the Senate would allow Edwards to cast a tie-breaking vote to organize the Senate under Democratic leadership. While I would hope that we might gain a clear majority, that will be quite difficult as noted already.

[spooky3]

13. Welcome to DU, rullery!

[fujiyama]

5. That would be better than where it is now

but I'm just trying to make the point to a few posters that were claiming they would only vote for certain candidates that fit their ideal specifications.

Of all three braches, the most powerful branch is very competetive and they shouldn't take the bait the RW media is putting out (ie the IWR vote). They are very clearly trying to divide the left and either drive some to vote Nader (if he's on the ballot), or not vote at all.

While it was very tough for Clinton to get stuff passed he vetoed a ton of bad stuff the republicans put out, and as we saw in the first two years of Bush, even when democrats controlled the senate Bush got plenty of his agenda pushed through, like the tax cuts for example.

Ideally though, the dems will take back all three branches (or atleast keep the senate tied, the house margin cut down and win the presidency - the country can't afford more Bush).

[mark414]

11. what about Jeffords?

doesn't he make 50/50 impossible?

[DaveinMD]

12. he counts

as a Dem for counting because he caucuses with us.

[quaoar]

2. We will win the Senate

and the House. The Perfect Storm is brewing.

[Itchinjim]

9. Turnout,

Massive Democrat turnout. It will happen.

[loveable liberal]

3. it really doesnt matter if the voting machines dont work.

without one person/one vote, if the foundation of our republic is flawed, we no longer have a republic.

[althecat]

6. Battleground races

Missouri, Kentucky, Illinois, Louisiana, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Colorado and Oklahoma...

Of those five races have no clear favourite so far.. if they win all those then they get control back.

Assuming the elections are not rigged I can't see why it is not possible to regain control.

[DieboldMustDie]

10. There are a lot more D seats up for grabs this year than R seats.

I think it's 19/15, but I'm too lazy to look it up right now. :shrug: