New Swing State General Election Numbers

[Hope And Change]

http://thepage.time.com/2008/05/22/new-swing-state-general-election-numbers/">Link

[livetohike]

1. Yay for Pennsylvania!

I knew they would come around :-). This is just based on the Republican people that I know who said they won't vote for McCain. I thought hell froze over :-).

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. The Candidate Who Wins Two Of Those Three States Will Likely Be The Next Pres

As it has been in every election in the past one hundred or so years...

[mckeown1128]

11. Umm no....

Even though I predict Obama will win OH... he doesn't have to. A simple pick up of CO and NM will put him over the top. ;) FL and OH would be nice... but this year there are some real back ups.

[BzaDem]

35. Um, no?

Try adding CO + NM again.

[mckeown1128]

38. Sure and I stand by what I said...

273 Obama
265 McCain

I don't know what are differences are... I am guessing Iowa. I should have said Iowa too. It is a guarantee that Obama wins Iowa. He has been well ahead of McCain in EVERY Iowa poll. lol I guess I have stopped considering it a toss up state.


Obama also has been polling ahead(on and off) in Nevada, Virginia, and North Dakota. He has also been with in 3% points of winning Alaska, Texas, North Carolina, Nebraska, and Missouri.

[mkultra]

3. Quinnipiac is biased towards clinton

[Arkansas Granny]

5. On what do you base that accusation?

[mkultra]

26. just emperical data

I watch the polls from Real Clear politics and it seems like every time the quinnipiac polls are shown against other polls they favor clinton.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Their Findings Seem In Line With The Findings Of Other Pollsters

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

[mkultra]

27. yeah, thats where i got the idea

just take a few minutes and scan the poll comparisons/ They are close but usually give favor to clinton or against obama by one or two points.

[PBS Poll-435]

7. That must be it!

It is the only reason that makes sense.

[PBS Poll-435]

4. Wow. That is really something.

Kerry only won PA by 2.5-3.0 pts.

[Thrill]

8. And McCain has had a free ride, since Feb,

[Skwmom]

14. And Clinton has had pretty much a FREE RIDE also. Obama, on the other hand,

has been repeatedly attacked. The Clintons are doing a great job of poisoning the well.

[AllentownJake]

9. PA will be fine

Ed Rendell will not allow the state to go Red. No matter who the nominee is.

[BobbyVan]

10. This is why Clinton needs to be on the ticket

[Dawgs]

13. No. His numbers will rise after he wins the nomination.

We still have five+ months folks.

[Skwmom]

16. Clinton has NOT been vetted. It wouldn't take much to make her numbers plummet.

[BobbyVan]

18. Ha! The media and the liberal establishment have been sh**ing all over her for months

Her high numbers after all the abuse that's been heaped upon her prove her resiliency, and value to an Obama ticket.

[mkultra]

33. doubt it.

The republicans will shred her to pieces. Shes the shit queen and they will parade every little piece of dirt.

[BigDDem]

20. What rock have you been living under?

[Dawgs]

12. Great news!! Once the "bitter" Hillary supporters come around to Obama, his numbers will rise.

If he can win Florida and Ohio by at least five then America wins in November.

[rhombus]

15. WI, CO, NM, NV, VA, NC

Lots of states are going to be in play for Obama. Go West young man.

[ShortnFiery]

17. Yes, a different "electoral map" applies. eom

[my3boyz]

19. Great numbers for Obama! He is leading in PA and within 4 of the other two! He was

MUCH further behind in Florida and Ohio! He has til November to shore up Florida and Ohio! It is not like McCain has a lead that can't be closed up. Go Obama! Clinton's numbers don't matter. She is not going to be the nominee.

[derby378]

21. Texas is turning into a swing state, too...

Last I heard, we're polling McCain 48%, Obama 43%. The Republicans are finally vulnerable in Texas!

[BigDDem]

22. So Hillary is winning all 3 swing states

and Obama's winning one???

Hurray! Go Obama!

[Onlooker]

23. Now that Clinton's largely out of the race, she looks better

I don't think these polls reflect reality. The fact that Clinton is not going to win the nomination is making her less of a threat, so she looks better than Obama to people. Also, McCain is leading for now only because no one is attacking him yet.

[democrattotheend]

24. Looks like he's lost a little ground in FL and OH

Bummer :(

Still, 4 points down is not the end of the world, especially in Florida...if he's only 4 points down in FL now when he's just starting to campaign there, there's a decent chance he could make up that ground. Although not if Clinton keeps trying to make Florida voters think he wants to take away their rights.

[lsusteel]

25. Obama +7 IN VIRGINIA

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9901f8fc-034e-4a1d-ab36-f6e5c918614e

Obama/Edwards is again the strongest ticket. Likely due to name recognition, but it's better to start well-known and well-liked than unknown and potentially unliked.

I'd post this in a new thread, but I'm out of them until 4 PM today.

[paulk]

28. that poll didn't include Clinton as VP choice

which kind of makes it pointless...

[MadBadger]

29. A bunch of DINOs in Florida and Ohio in Clinton supporters.

[woolldog]

30. what is a DINO?

[MadBadger]

31. Democrat in Name Only

[woolldog]

36. tks.............. n/t

[woolldog]

32. Clinton has poisoned the well

with her racial divisiveness & race baiting and her playing the gender/sexism card. And her demagoguery over the FL and MI votes.

[Robbins]

34. Polls

Before long the Hillary supporters will use this as proof Obama can't win.But,when you consider all the talk is on Obama VS Hillary and Obama can't win white votes(BS of course) Mccain with 4 points In both Ohio and Florida In May Is not something they should be bragging about.I will be honest and
say Florida will be tough.Bill Clinton actully lost It In 1992.And If Mccain picks Crist as his running mate It will be even harder however with Obama this strong with little campagining there Is
a good sign.Once Hillary Is out of the race Obama could Improve In Ohio.Again we see that Obama Is
likely to win PA despite all this he can't win white votes.The big news Is Obama Is leading In
Virginia which of course the MSM won't cover.

[CakeGrrl]

37. Cool. He's within striking distance in FL and OH, and he's working FL now

I have a lot of confidence in his ground game and his grassroots efforts. The issues are strongly on his side, and he's been able to speak more plainly and directly about the issues than anyone else I can remember. I don't know why that's so difficult to do, but it needs to be done. Obama can clearly spell out what's at stake for everyone - except those with money to burn or who are immune to the destruction of war or the erosion of women's rights - with a McCain win.