No wonder Obama doesn't want a Florida do-over - he's not popular down there.

[avenger64]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/florida/election_2008_florida_presidential_election

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Florida shows McCain attracting 50% of the vote while Obama earns 40%. Last month, McCain led by fifteen points. This is the third Florida poll in four months to show McCain with a double digit lead. Just 57% of Florida Democrats say they will vote for Obama while 27% plan to vote for McCain. The two candidates are essentially even among unaffiliated voters.

He's only pulling 57 percent of Democrats in the biggest swing state in America? This is indicative of a larger problem.

[ShortnFiery]

1. Yeah, right.

:eyes:

[anonymous171]

2. Without even campaigning there? That's pretty good for a red state.

[avenger64]

13. I think he was down there today, right?

And Senator Clinton didn't campaign down there before the primary.

[msallied]

32. His first day down there doing real campaigning, first of all.

And Hillary almost always does better in the offset because she has the name recognition.

We have six months left in the campaign with the Democrats still in-fighting. He will probably improve down there, although I still don't put the state firmly in his category yet. Hers either.

[MonkeyFunk]

65. Please...

you're saying Obama has a name-recognition problem in Florida? That's absurd.

[Kool Kitty]

33. She may not have, but she was hardly

an unknown in Florida or anywhere else in the world, for that matter. Not quite the same thing.

[NotThisTime]

77. Completely agree, when he is known, he polls much better.....

[parasim]

48. No, but she was down here right afterwards.

Besides, I know no Floridian that doesn't already know who Hillary Clinton is.

[cali]

56. Clinton had campaigned dowjn there for freakin' years

she was about as known a figure as you could possibly find. And the poll was taken before Obama went there, and in any case 1 day is hardly much.

[Hola]

68. Hillary

She's been campaigning there since 1992.

[ecdab]

57. That and the fact that Hillary has been running a non-stop

negative campaign to tell the people of Florida that it's all Obama's fault. Hillary has done everything she could to help McCain win Florida and he only leads by 10% prior to Obama making his first campaign stop there - that's actually good news and tells me Florida is firmly in play for Obama despite all the efforts by Hillary to make sure that it wouldn't be in play for the Democrats.

[kid a]

3. Those are AWESOME numbers - for only his first day there!

[anigbrowl]

4. Let's see, he's closed the gap with McCain 5% since last month...

and 15,000 people came to see him in Tallahassee today, his first day in Florida since last year. You're right, he sucks.

[Bluedevildog]

51. Or we could say, "McCain has gained 6% on him in one week

The latest poll had Obama down by just 4%. Now it's 10.

http://www.myfoxkc.com/myfox/pages/News/Politics/Detail;jsessionid=79AEDF78D62BA6D9CF36C5823123DCE0?contentId=6053413&version=2&locale=EN-US&layoutCode=TSTY&pageId=3.14.1&sflg=1

[intaglio]

83. Or we could use polls to prove anything

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6084987

Including the numbers plucked from your ----- grass

[Endangered Specie]

5. waaaah waaaah waaaah...

[gcomeau]

6. And what happens when Obama campaigns in a state?

And what state did he NOT campaign in until today?

That's right...

[thewiseguy]

7. You sound like a sore loser.

[avenger64]

16. There haven't been any losers yet ...

... 'less I miss my guess. The convention will settle all of that.

[thewiseguy]

19. No, It has already been settled.

[avenger64]

22. No, not exactly.

That doesn't really happen until the convention, when the Nominee gives her (or his) acceptance speech. There's still plenty to hash out between now and then.

[DemVet]

63. Nope, it has not. BO doesn't have enough dels to secure the nom.

[bookman]

23. If this goes to the convention...

... America loses. McCain wins.

[Cha]

29. Yeah, hilary and her latest sexist theme is going to

bring her supporters along with their pots and pans to Denver and see what happens.

[AuntPatsy]

81. If a Dem is not president in 08 we are all losers...focus

[PM7nj]

8. That's why 15,000 went to an Obama rally in Tampa...

yea, he is less popular there than he is in Kentucky!

[Thrill]

9. He hasn't campaigned there. This is not a surprise. He's unknown

[Lyric]

66. That's just flat-out silly.

People in Florida have television, internet, and radio. This is the most contested, controversial primary election in decades. It's patently absurd to think that just because Obama hasn't "campaigned" there, that the people of Florida don't "know" him.

And for the record, Obama was the only one who was able to air campaign ads in Florida before their primary. Yes, they were national cable ads, not ads meant specifically for Florida, but Florida voters still saw them.

He isn't "unknown" ANYWHERE in the U.S. at this point.

[Thrill]

71. Its a big difference in seeing someone on TV. And seeing them in person

speaking with you. Thats why Obama has pretty much come from 30 points down in most states after he campaigns there. If you could just depend on TV. Why the hell do candidates visit and spend so much time in states. Don't be naive.

[AtomicKitten]

10. Hillary has worked hard to blame the DNC/state legislature problem on Barack.

No worries. He'll be fine in the general.

[KittyWampus]

11. are you attempting satire?

indicative of a larger problem?

[panader0]

12. And exactly what is that"larger problem"?

[iamthebandfanman]

14. couldnt be that hillary has divided us the last 2-3 months

naaah pishaw!

[gristy]

15. Liar

You are a liar. You are welcome to prove that you are not. Provide a link where Obama has said that he does not want a re-vote in Florida.

[dana_b]

17. self delete

[avenger64]

18. Not exactly ...

... some of those would vote for a yellow dog if he were a democrat. They'd probably cozy up to Hillary a little quicker.

[dana_b]

25. yeah, I saw my mess up and deleted. thanks.

[NJSecularist]

20. Florida will not be pretty with Obama as our nominee.

And you are right - winning only 57% of Democrats is absolutely putrid.

[merh]

24. Read the full article

Although Barack Obama is virtually assured of being the Democratic nominee, 28% of Florida Democrats want him to drop out of the race. Just 36% say Clinton should withdraw.

[merh]

21. LOL did you catch this?

Although Barack Obama is virtually assured of being the Democratic nominee, 28% of Florida Democrats want him to drop out of the race. Just 36% say Clinton should withdraw.

More want Hillary to drop out yet the lovely use of "Just" to try to minimize her higher numbers.

:rofl:

You need to read the entire article, as it points out, Obama has just begun to campaign in Florida, Hillary's been there, done that and more Florida dems want her to withdraw. That is pretty telling.

[avenger64]

27. Here you go - this should quell your doubts ...

...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/florida.html

RealClearpolitics.com - Florida:

RCP Average 03/15 - 05/19 -- 43.0 46.3 Clinton +3.3
Rasmussen 05/19 - 05/19 500 LV 41 47 Clinton +6.0
Quinnipiac 04/23 - 04/29 1411 RV 41 49 Clinton +8.0

[merh]

35. LOL, Obama hasn't campaigned in Florida

Hillary has been there and more Florida dems want her to drop out than they want Obama to drop out. LOL

[avenger64]

38. Did you see those polls?

The ones who don't want him to drop out apparently will vote for her. She's beating McCain there. Obama is losing by 10 points.

[anonymous171]

40. So? She hasn't been hit since early April.

[avenger64]

43. No, dude, 5/19 is in May ...

... that's when the poll ended. It goes January (1), February (2), March (3), April (4), May (5).

[bhikkhu]

44. Good catch, thanks.

All of this verges on the ridiculous, and it is hard to say if it will get better or worse.

I am glad I don't live in FL, which seems to have been selected by common consent as the state that will get f*kd with and f*kd over every election (or at least that's how they will play it on TV). :)

[lojasmo]

26. Since the OP did a piss poor job...

I'm gonna parse this a little more carefully.

McCain is viewed favorably by 50% of the state’s voters, Obama by 48%. Compared to a month ago, that’s a twelve-point decline for McCain and a six-point gain for Obama.



Rasmussen failed to poll republicans on who they were going to vote for.

Obama's going to do fine in Florida.

Also, since when is Florida "the biggest swing state in America"?

Have we carried Florida recently?

[avenger64]

30. Yes, in 2000.

Did you forget? And great that you should have Howard Dean in that picture, since he's acting the part of Scalia this time and disenfranchising those voters down there.

[Cha]

34. You don't know shit and yet you get on DU and

act like you do. Go learn something and then come back.

[avenger64]

36. I've learned plenty, and since I'm quoting facts ...

.... it may be you that doesn't know well, I'm not going to say it. Bring some reason or stay home, little dog.

[lojasmo]

67. Those aren't facts.

[QC]

31. "Have we carried Florida recently?"

In 1996. We lost by 1.89% in 1992.

[msallied]

39. And we lost it back to back in 2000 and 2004.

The facts are not weighing heavily in your favor.

[Apollo11]

64. This is the first time I saw a DU member claim that Gore lost Florida in 2000

SHAME ON YOU! :P

[BenDavid]

28. hell, since Wisc. HRC has gained more then 400,000 plus more

votes then obama, and he cannot close the deal by winning states he will be needing in November. DAMN!

"Hillary has battled the Republicans and the whore media but the worst assaults and the most personal attacks have come from her fellow Democrats. Think of Patton trying to take Germany with US soldiers firing at him from behind. Patton could defeat the German army and the weather, but it's tough to win
when your own people want you dead." BC

[Name removed]

37. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[TexasObserver]

41. Obama gets such numbers BEFORE HE CAMPAIGNS IN A STATE

Because the candidates, except Hillary, didn't campaign in the state, Obama is behind there. Even after he campaigns there, he may not win the state. It is a Republican state run by Republicans who are dirty.

[dchill]

42. Here you go:

http://www.freerepublic.com/

Be happy.

[avenger64]

45. No, that's your place. They're definitely rooting for Obama over there ...

... he's their best chance to hold the White House!

[dchill]

47. I wouldn't know.

:shrug:

[gristy]

49. Been spending some time over there lately? Yucking it up?

[anonymous171]

50. I sometimes browse FR when I'm bored.

I'm positive that it's become a popular pot banger hangout.

[SoCalDem]

46. That 57% beats what Hillie got in the fake primary in January

Maybe he SHOULD press for a new primary :) and in Mich too.. his peeps in Detroit would love to vote for him, and he would definitely do better NOW than what he got as uncommitted:)

[Youphemism]

52. Not bad...

"The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Florida shows McCain attracting 50% of the vote while Obama earns 40%. Last month, McCain led by fifteen points."

So, he's closed the gap by 5% in a month without even campaigning there?

And we have 5 more months?

[Youphemism]

54. Still, you can't underestimate McCain in Florida...

He's sure to get a large demographic there, the "driving down the freeway with the forgotten left turn signal flashing" vote.

[ruby slippers]

53. Florida sure didn't look like that to me tonight......see this

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6072242&mesg_id=6072242

[Yukari Yakumo]

55. My God you're an idiot.

You made one gaping hole in your argument.

Remember, Obama hasn't campaigned in FL until today...

McCain attracting 50% of the vote while Obama earns 40%.

Now guess what kiddies! IT'S MATH TIME!

50-40=10
Mc:nuke: lead is now 10 points.

Last month, McCain led by fifteen points.

So, with no campaigning... Obama gets better numbers than he did a month ago.

[avenger64]

72. Yeah, well since we're apparently taking our fist shot at reading comprehension ...

... take a look at:

"This is the third Florida poll in four months to show McCain with a double digit lead. "

Which means there was one month when the lead was less than 10. Which means that the lead is higher now than it was then, btw, Einstein. The point is, McCain has had a big lead there for months.

I wouldn't be calling anyone an idiot if I were you.

[Scooter24]

76. You're making assumptions that were never stated

It says "Third poll in the past four months"

Nowhere does it say that four polls were done in FL. What it does say is that three polls were done spanning four months and each one had McCain up by double-digit percentages. What it also says is that McCain's numbers vs. Obama are at his lowest point today.

[indimuse]

58. He would NEVAH win FL!

Hillary will! He knew it! And MI..which is why he TOOK his name off the ballot! To F*CK-UP the election for Hillary! John Conyers and his Wife worked VERY hard for BO in MI... With a slew of RADIO Ads and Flyers asking people to NOT vote for BO..BUT VOTE UNCommitted...THEY DID! Alot DID! But Hillary stood by the voters and gave them an opportunity to cast their vote in that election...BO LOST BIG..Now he wants YOU to believe, He LOST because HIS NAME WAS REMOVED BY HIM FOR POLITCAL GAMES , YOU KNOW, THE ONES BUSH LIKES TO PLAY!!!!! HE IS AN ASS!

[quaker bill]

60. "will not participate"

means "will not participate". By the time the pledge was signed, it was too late to remove his name from the Fl ballot, or he would have done it here too. The candidates agreed not to campaign in MI and FL on the basis of a committment from the DNC that no delegates would be seated from these states.

"will not participate" also reasonably means "will not accept benefit from" or "will have no part of". It is a shame that Hillary did not follow through on her committment to the DNC and wishes to further breach it now. Changing the rules on how to count the votes after the fact is the Bush strategy.

[indimuse]

61. HELLO!!!!

OBAMA CAMPAIGNED IN FL!!!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FN1UU_wqVpY OBAMA IN FL..CFR AUG 2007

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6165dwv4-Os ******************BINGO OBAMA CAUGHT CAMPAIGNING IN FL**************************

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fCfmXDBPvNY&feature=related ****************Barack Obama @ Florida A&M (FAMU)***********September 09,

200************************

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o-kcOzcwiOM&NR=1 ****************Barack at FAMU August 24, 2007*********************

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ee36wm3FeJU&feature=related **************** Barack Obama Rally, Tampa Florida

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DLjxK88CiUc&feature=related

[quaker bill]

74. Not so much

I live in FL. Hillary was here for events as well. I would not call what she did as campaigning either.

[quaker bill]

75. Let me be a tad more clear

I have worked in campaigns for Al Gore, Howard Dean, John Kerry, and other local candidates. I know what campaigning looks like. Barack Obama did not campaign here, neither did Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Joe Biden, Bill Richardson, nor Dennis Kucinich. Only Mike Gravel campaigned, to the extent anything he did could actually meet that definition. Not to raise too fine a point for a Hillary supporter, but the candidates took the pledge on September 1, 2007. So the August stuff is clearly not relevant.

Florida is a big state, campaigning here is a rather large undertaking, not something that slips under the radar. Even to this day, I can only obtain a yard sign or bumper sticker by mail order. You have a damn weak argument to hinge a nomination off of.

[bowens43]

59. Obama is winning by every measurement we have.

[Life Long Dem]

62. A Florida do-over?

They never had one to do-over to begin with. And by going by the rules they weren't allowed to have one. So, if they couldn't have the election on that date, when did they ever have one?

[mmonk]

69. Didn't Florida say it didn't want a redo?

Clinton people complain about attacks and support Clinton as VP if Obama is the nominee for unity purposes but they continue to relentlessly attack the Obama campaign on disingenuous premises and seem to try and damage our ticket's prospects. Unity depends on those that seek to do damage, not the other way around.

[my3boyz]

70. Yeah...Al Gore and John Kerry lost FL too! Florida is full of old Republican-like

people. Hillary would fit right in! She is already over on the dark side (republican). She should stay there.

[Political Heretic]

80. Al Gore didn't lose Florida.

Sorry, I'm not letting history get re-written right under my nose.

[mystieus]

73. McCain vs Obama polls don't mean anything until democrats have a nominee.

[HuffleClaw]

78. it most certainly is

there's a reason the SD's haven't decided yet.

[VotesForWomen]

79. O doesn't need FL; he's going to win UT, WY, ND, GA, and SC to make up for it.

[intaglio]

82. errrrrrr it was Hillary's campaign that turned down revotes

But don't let reality spoil your day

[Awsi Dooger]

84. Obama would have been trounced in Florida

By double digits at any point in time, regardless of how feverishly he campaigned.

The doubters are the same ones with high hopes for Obama in the Pennsylvania and Ohio primaries.

Avoiding certain slaughter in Florida was perhaps the biggest break any potential nominee has received in decades. It could have altered the dynamic, an early hint at how comparatively vulnerable Obama is in the vital swing states.

Still, Obama has a chance in Florida, if he wins nationally by at least 2-3 points. It's a bonus state this time, with Ohio significantly more likely.