If the RBC Follows it current rules this thing is over when the last precinct reports in in MT

[Perky]

The current rule is that the RBC can seat 1/2 of the Florida and Michigan Delegations but they get no Super Delegates seated.

So by that math the Magic number is 2,090

Under those terms the count is something very close to this:

Obama = 1,983 (Current PD = 1,612.5 + Current SD = 303.5 + 1/2 Florida allocation = 33.5)
Clinton = 1,897 (Current PD = 1,442.5 + Current SD = 276.5 + 1/2 Florida/MIchigan allocation = 89)
Uncommitted = 27.5 (55 MI Uncommitted @ 50%)
Edwards = 18 = (Current PD = 9 + Current SD = 0 + 1/2 Florida allocation = 6.5)

So Obama would need 107 delegates if The RBC Follows their current rules (which is actually less than the 109 Obama needs to get to 2025 according to DCW)

This math leaves MI's 27.5 uncommitted quasi-super-delegates,

a 50/50 split tonight is not unreasonable. But lets say Obama picks up 50 of the 105 available thus leaving him 57 shy of the magic number.

(Incidentally, that leaves him with 1,696 of the total Pledged delegates and a majority of Pledged including seating 1/2 of MI/FL is 1692.


So he needs any total of Pledged and Super Delegates totaling 57 to claim the nomination

There are 86 PLedged Delegates left. but he is averaging three Supers a day. At three a day he will accumulate about 50 that way. He is likely to get 20 out of Puerto Rico to HRC's 35 leaving him 16 short with 31 up for grabs in SOuth Dakota and Montana.

If he gets any portion of the MI delegation it ends sooner.

If the RBC seats more than 50% it does not change the math or the end date,

The only way the date gets pushed out is if they seat the Florida an MI supers and the trend line on the SDs endorsements does not change.

THE ONLY WAY FOR HILLARY TO WIN is to start Poaching Super Delegates. ANd the ugliness of that process would mean she would lose some delegates as well. It would not work.


I think she congratulates Obama tonight after she spanks him in Kentucky. Though I would love to see her surprise everyone by showing up on stage in Des Moines tonight.

[jefferson_dem]

1. Thanks for the "math update."

I want to believe you about Hillary effectively conceding tonight but, seriously, I see no evidence that she will do that. I'm thinking she stays in it until June 3, or sooner if he reaches the "magic number" and FL/MI are resolved.

[Perky]

2. There had been a preety solid drumbeat for her to end on a high note

this is her last chance. The four days from May 31 when RBC meets through the following Tuesday when Montana and SD vote are not going to be particualrly kinf to her. And whatever she says after the last votes are cast coul soure alot opf people if she is going to fight about the disporition of Florida and Michigan. SHe could end it then I suppose but it would look more like resignation and defeate then going out on a Kentucky high note.