My Latest Electoral map jpeg

[Bombtrack]

I moved NM and OR from tossup to swingstate leaning Kerry. I moved Indiana from very likely to safely Bush, and Missouri from swingstate leaning Bush to tossup

[trotsky]

1. Kerry has 7-pt leads in NH and FL.

If that's a tossup, you must be pretty "conservative" in your projections!

[King of New Orleans]

2. At the very least Pennsylvania should be Green if not lite blue

The last four polls out of PA give Kerry anywhere from a 5 to 12 point lead

[WI_DEM]

9. the latest Rasmussen poll of Pennsylvania released yesterday

gives Kerry only a 1-point lead.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/

[DaveinMD]

11. Rasmussen

is a 30 day tracker and a Republican firm. I haven't trusted their numbers throughout.

[WI_DEM]

12. Yet I've noticed that

when their numbers are good for Kerry it doesn't stop people from posting them. I'm just being consistent. I don't necessarily trust them either.

[NJCher]

3. 20 point lead in NJ

You are indeed being very conservative.


Cher

[Zynx]

4. Illinois is safe Dem. It's safer than even California.

Also a new poll out of NJ shows Kerry up by 20 there. If you have PA a tossup for us, then VA a tossup for Bush along with half a dozen others.

[WI_DEM]

14. I would agree that Illinois should be solid for Kerry

it is our best state in midwest and Bush isn't going to even make a effort there.

[Tim_in_HK]

5. Haven't there been a couple recent polls

out of NJ where Kerry is up by about 20 pts or something?

That seems safe to me.

On edit: same with CT and DE as well? Not safe??

[WI_DEM]

16. latest polls from NY 13-20 point lead for Kerry

Quinnipiac is 13-points and then another poll this weekend the Star-Eagle poll (?) has a 20-point edge for Kerry.

[Tweed]

6. No offense, but www.electoral-vote uses actual polls.

you just seemed to grab things out of nowhere.

[Bombtrack]

18. I do use actual polls. It's the only thing these projections are based on

A composite of polls, not just the latest one, so I will take offense for you mischaracterizing my conclusions completely.

[Inland]

7. NJ, IL have bigger leads for Kerry than CA, why are they only likely?

IL has a fifteen point lead in the latest poll, NJ has twenty! That is about where Texas is for Bush!
You should stop doing your own work, try

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htm

[Bombtrack]

19. Because I don't just base my opinions on the "latest" polls.

the "light" blue and red states are not swingstates. The "safe" word virtically overlaps both light and dark shades of blue and red. I just classify some as more safe than others.

[Inland]

27. If Illinois isn't safe, then polls are crap because everything changes

and your exercise is worthless. You might as color them all unknown until November.

[Inland]

8. And latest MI poll has Kerry up by ten points!

[michigandem2]

24. This is no longer even a close race in Michigan..

Kerry has a big lead..of course it could change but I think this one is a "very likely" state for kerry...

[AmerDem]

10. you best look over Pa, and NJ

last i read they both have Kerry ahead , over and above the % of error!

[Bombtrack]

20. You have to look at all the polls as a group. It's just rediculous to go

by the latest 1 or 2.

[Warpy]

13. You're being awfully pessimistic

Better news can be found at http://www.electoral-vote.com/ and it's updated daily as more polls come in, and each poll is identified as you drag your cursor across the state.

Another one, not quite as good but not all that bad, is http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html

You do get an A for effort, though.

[Bombtrack]

21. I'm not pessimistic. I'm not simplistic. It's simplistic to just re-

classify a state based on 1 or 2 polls when the one or 2 are signifigantly different than many previous polls in a concurrant time period when you look at what the outside influences have been.

[Bombtrack]

25. I don't see any polls identified when I drag across a state

am I looking at the wrong part of the site?
this site
http://home.comcast.net/~gerrydal/update.htm
is quite comprehensive in terms of polls being updated and analysed. I also get many as they come in from Politicalwire.com

[pmbryant]

15. SD, IL

I think SD can probably be put in the "safely GOP" column.

And IL probably in the "safely Dem" column.

:-)

But this early, you are probably on the right track to be conservative in your categorizations. It looks about right.

Peter

[Bombtrack]

23. SD is a very independant , anti-party minded state w/ a tight senate race

I'm not the only person on the net who does this anaylisis to look at it with a slight destinction from it's surrounding states. People are overreacting in thinking I believe these light states are swingstates. The "safe" word overlaps it. It just does have a slightly larger chance on a cold day in hell to be competative than most of those other red states.

[On the Road]

17. Under Your Scenario, What's the Electoral Vote Total?

Did you do the math? I like conservative scenarios in which Kerry still wins. After the 2002 elections, I no longer feel complacent with a lead.

[Bombtrack]

22. Doing it right now

[sleipnir]

26. Bombtrack, this is REALLY cool. Good job.

Nice graphics and I like your selections of more than 5 colors, the 7 shades really accurately depicts the true situation.

I hate to jump on the nitpicking bandwagon, but I'm a sucker for groupthink, so I'll have to say that NJ is trending more and more towards Kerry each week. I think one poll last week had Kerry with a +20, w/margin of error figured in Kerry's favor. I'd move it solid Blue, as it's been moving slowly, but surely, to a total blowout for Kerry.

But otherwise, I think it's extremely accurate for this week!

[buycitgo]

28. sorry, but this thread very well demonstrates the silly attention

being paid to polls at this stage

can you say "snapshot?"

wait at LEAST til the convention

I know it's tempting: my heart races and sinks with each new poll, depending on whom it favors

trying not to pay attention

the internals are what interests me more

like that one showing a HUGE swing of vet voters towards Bush

how I hope that one is accurate, as I wear my Dad's WWII dogtag, both in his memory, and to remind me that he fought in VAIN against the nazis, cause they're BACK in power

[rullery]

29. Bush and Co. will do anything to hold on to power!

This may seem paranoid, but I do believe there is a real possibility that this administration could even stage a phoney terrorist strike on the eve of the election, if they see they are likely to lose.

Remember how the Spanish election was influenced by the Madrid train bombing last March. The Nazis destroyed the Reichstag, the German Parliament, to consolidate their power in the 1930s. This Bush crowd might blow up the Capitol building and blame it on terrorists.
That would make these current polls meaningless.

Sound unreal? I would not put anything past these guys. I voted for Gore in 2000 using the infamous Florida punch-card ballot, and I don't know if my vote was counted or not. I believe that America is in real danger of being taken over by these neo-fascists!

[Bombtrack]

30. I think I'll release one tomorrow with some of those light blues into the

dark blue. With numbers for each of the total in each category

[Cuban_Liberal]

31. Illinois is 'safely Dem'

It should be dark blue.

[Bombtrack]

32. I'll make another one tomorrow, with totals for all categories.

[Cuban_Liberal]

33. Cool beans.

:hi:

[Redneck Socialist]

34. good job bombtrack

Your map is pretty similar to my thinking at this point. There have been a lot of overly optimistic, giddy projections posted of late. It is very early still and it strikes me as likely that the race will tighten considerably. Any fantasies of a Kerry blowout are just that, fantasies.