Kerry Takes Lead Over Bush Among Likely Voters in Florida (Great ARG poll)

[Bombtrack]

Kerry Takes Lead Over Bush Among Likely Voters in Florida

http://americanresearchgroup.com/fl/

John Kerry has taken the lead over George W. Bush among likely voters in Florida according to a survey by the American Research Group. A total of 50% of likely voters say they would vote for Kerry if the presidential election were being held today and 43% say they would vote for Bush. A total of 2% of likely voters say they would vote for Ralph Nader and 5% of likely voters are undecided.

In a ballot question without Nader, 52% of likely voters say they would vote for Kerry and 44% say they would vote for Bush, with 4% of likely voters undecided.

These results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a statewide random sample of likely voters in Florida. Of the 600 likely voters, 39% are Republicans, 45% are Democrats, and 16% are not affiliated with any party or affiliated with a minor party. The interviews were conducted August 3 through 5, 2004. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 600 is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

Florida likely voters Aug 5 Jul 15 Jun 23 May 19 Apr 21 Mar 4

George W. Bush 43% 44% 46% 47% 46% 44%
John Kerry 50% 47% 47% 46% 45% 45%
Ralph Nader 2% 3% 2% 3% 3% 4%
Undecided 5% 6% 5% 4% 6% 7%

While Bush leads Kerry 49% to 43% among white voters (72% of the sample) and 46% to 42% among Hispanic voters (15% of the sample), Kerry leads Bush 87% to 9% among black voters (13% of the sample) which gives Kerry the overall lead.

Kerry is doing slightly better among Democrats and Republicans compared to the July survey while maintaining a 10 percentage-point lead among non-affiliated/minor party voters.

Party Republicans
(39%) Democrats
(45%) None/Minor
(16%)

George W. Bush 83% 9% 41%
John Kerry 10% 84% 51%
Ralph Nader 2% 2% 3%
Undecided 5% 5% 5%



In terms of awareness and favorability, all likely voters say they are aware of George W. Bush and John Kerry.

A total of 45% of likely voters say they have a favorable opinion of Bush and 48% say they have an unfavorable opinion of Bush.

A total of 54% of likely voters say they have a favorable opinion of Kerry and 41% say they have an unfavorable opinion of Kerry.

A total of 73% of likely voters say they have an unfavorable opinion of Ralph Nader.

Awareness and favorability Aware Favorable Unfavorable Undecided

George W. Bush:
Aug 5 2004 100% 45% 48% 7%
July 15 2004 100% 44% 46% 10%
June 23 2004 100% 46% 46% 8%
May 19 2004 100% 48% 47% 5%
Apr 21 2004 100% 48% 45% 7%
Mar 4 2004 100% 48% 47% 5%

John Kerry:
Aug 5 2004 100% 54% 41% 5%
July 15 2004 100% 51% 44% 5%
June 23 2004 99% 51% 44% 4%
May 19 2004 94% 46% 45% 3%
Apr 21 2004 94% 44% 45% 5%
Mar 4 2004 93% 41% 41% 11%

Ralph Nader:
Aug 5 2004 91% 13% 73% 5%
July 15 2004 93% 12% 75% 6%
June 23 2004 92% 7% 75% 10%
May 19 2004 93% 6% 72% 15%
Apr 21 2004 95% 8% 70% 17%
Mar 4 2004 95% 17% 53% 25%

A total of 83% of Republicans say they have a favorable opinion of Bush and 81% of Democrats say they have an unfavorable opinion of Bush.

A total of 89% of Democrats say they have a favorable opinion of Kerry and 81% of Republicans have an unfavorable opinion of Kerry.

A total of 77% of Republicans and 73% of Democrats have an unfavorable opinion of Nader.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

About this survey:

Survey Sponsor: American Research Group, Inc.

Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely voters in Florida. Of the 600 likely voters, 39% are Republicans, 45% are Democrats, and 16% are not affiliated with any party or affiliated with a minor party.

Sample Dates: August 3-5, 2004

Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

Question wording:

I'm going to read a list of names associated with running for president and I'd like you to tell me if you have ever heard of them before.

The first name is (READ FROM BELOW). Have you ever heard of (NAME) before? IF AWARE, ASK: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (NAME)? (NAMES ROTATED)

George W. Bush
John Kerry
Ralph Nader

If the election for president were being held today between George W. Bush, the Republican, John Kerry, the Democrat, and Ralph Nader, the Independent, for whom would you vote - Bush, Kerry, or Nader? (NAMES ROTATED)

[Catfight]

1. We won't rest until Bush has 1% of people who will stand behind

the liar himself. There's always going to be a 1% of blind followers who refuse to believe in reality. Let's keep getting the truth out to Floridians and ensure their votes will count this time around!

[Brotherjohn]

2. Boy, THAT makes me feel better. As a Floridian, I was a little down...

... this moring upon looking at the Electoral College update (http://www.electoral-vote.com/), which showed a drastic shift downwards in Kerry's electoral lead, seemingly due to the change of Florida from "Weak Kerry" to "Weak Bush".

This was based on a "Strategic Vision" poll done August 4th. I haen't ever heard of them, but I have heard of ARG. At the very least, the average of the two polls (probably the two most recent in FL) shows Kerry with a substantial lead in Florida.

I REALLY don't want Bush to take my state again.

[Bombtrack]

4. Strategic vision is a republican firm. There poll for today is 48/48 in FL

so he went up 2 points from them

[0rganism]

8. At first I was dismayed too, but then I understood: that is a GREAT MAP

Think about it.

Today's electoral-vote.com has Kerry winning overall, 280 to 258, WITHOUT WINNING FLORIDA OR OHIO.

That kind of win would be like turning conventional wisdom upside down, dunking it headfirst in the john, and giving it a swirly.

[Beetwasher]

3. Looks Like He's Opening Up a Sizeable Lead

But I still say we have to plan on winning w/out Florida...

[NewYorkerfromMass]

5. If the votes are counted we will win. eom

[Beetwasher]

7. Well, Yeah

Which is why I say we have to plan on winning w/out Florida. I really think FL. is too corrupt and the deck is too stacked there...

[ps1074]

6. the dems sample is little big I think

I believe the margin is less than 7% but Kerry is definately ahead in FL.

Great news :)