Fresh GE Polls! Get your fresh GE polls right here: Michigan, Virginia, North Carolina, and Oreg

[woolldog]

All Rasmussen numbers.

I don't include results for Clinton for obvious reasons. Overall I think these are good numbers esp in Virginia, where he's rebounded since that terrible stretch in March and April, and North Carolina.

Michigan

Obama: 44
McCain: 45

Election 2008 Michigan

Virginia

Obama: 44
McCain: 47

(Rasmussen hasn't released these yet, but these are the numbers that have been leaked.)

North Carolina

Obama: 45
McCain: 48


(Rasmussen hasn't released these yet, but these are the numbers that have been leaked.)

Oregon

Obama: 52
McCain: 38

Election 2008 Oregon

[skipos]

1. MI will come around, but it will need work

VA and NC being that close is great. Those are far from swing states in presidential general elections, I'd say those qualify as red states.

[Obamamaniac_25]

2. Tremendous news!!!

We're looking at an electoral college landslide in that case.

[MadBadger]

4. Obama hasnt stepped foot in Michigan yet. THat is important to rememberr as well.

[woolldog]

5. I'd like to see Webb as VP.

He will have some serious crossover appeal too.

[mod mom]

75. I agree He'd help us carry Virginia!

[dawgman]

80. Love Webb...don't love him as VP

We could very well lose his senate seat to a repub if he is the nom.

[DemsUnited]

81. You are so right. Plus I worked on Webb's Senate campaign and am

here to tell you the man does not like campaigning at all. Who can blame him.

But we really, really need a VP who can get out there and mend some fences.

Webb is an excellent Senator. And the equally excellent Mark Warner is poised to take Senate seat number two. I truly can't wait to see that.

[dawgman]

104. Personally if we need a National Security candidate

why not wes clark? He would not be leaving a seat to be challenged by an R and would appeal to many voters that may otherwise not vote for BO.

[dawgman]

105. Personally if we need a National Security candidate

why not wes clark? He would not be leaving a seat to be challenged by an R and would appeal to many voters that may otherwise not vote for BO.

[Romulox]

12. Obama has tried nothin' in Michigan and is fresh out of ideas.

Without a massive change in economic policy on Barack Obama's part, I am beginning to sense a John McCain victory in Michigan. I simply don't think the Obama people understand how angry people in Michigan are over the economy and the Washington elite's studied ignorance of our suffering...

[MadBadger]

14. And how does all this hurt Obama?

[Romulox]

17. How does losing Michigan hurt Obama??? Are you simple?

[MadBadger]

20. No, the fact that Michigan is hurting.

How does that hurt Obama's chances? McCain offers them more of the same. he went to Michigan and told them he could do nothing about their lost jobs. And he lost the primary as a result.

[Romulox]

25. Obama and McCain offer almost identical economic policies, leaving voters a choice based on

identity politics and culture war issues.

John McCain has been to Detroit 3 or so times this primary season to speak to Michigan voters about the economy. Barack Obama has not. Instead, he offers criticism of the Big 3 automakers on national TV, but offers no solutions.

http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080505/AUTO01/805050358

[MadBadger]

32. Are you a democrat? You sure dont sound like one

Saying that Obama and McCain have the same economic policies is downright stupid.

[Romulox]

44. I've always been a Democrat, but I will not vote for another proponent of neoliberal economics

regardless of the letter that follows his name.

[clevbot]

72. so you will vote for???

[JNelson6563]

62. He totally screwd up this last time

Came to MI and talked about human trafficking and the like. N'ary a mention of our economy. Apparently even those who were there dropped their jaws at this display of a tin ear.

You seem more enthusiastic about his chances than those of his supporters who attended that event. And I would thank you to stop portraying Michiganders as idiots.

Julie

[wileedog]

73. Identical economic policies?

Seriously?

[skipos]

18. And McCain's (Bush's) economic plan is going to entice MI voters? How?

Everyone said the EXACT same thing about Devos... "OMG! He is going to destroy Granholm! The economy sucks! etc!" And Granholm won by 16%.

[Romulox]

27. McCain = free trade, more H1Bs; Obama = free trade, more H1Bs. Same same.

[skipos]

31. And that will entice people to McCain how? nt

[MadBadger]

33. He thinks Obama and McCain's economic policies are the same

That's a new one to me. Never heard it before.

[skipos]

37. Shit, remember "Bush=Gore?" Some people will believe anything. nt

[Romulox]

41. *IRONY ALERT* Al Gore was the leading voice campaigning in support of NAFTA!

Read more carefully: Same economic policies. Al Gore is a lousy counter-example! :rofl:

[skipos]

70. Hey dumbass

just so you know, the people who said Bush=Gore weren't just talking about economic issues. You are welcome! :rofl:

[Romulox]

83. This entire exchange has been about economics. I'm not sure why you want to change the subject

"just so you know, the people who said Bush=Gore weren't just talking about economic issues."

Hoookay. But this entire exchange has been about the similarity of the Republican and Democratic economic policies. Remember?

[skipos]

90. And my comment was

that if there are people dumb enough to think Gore=Bush, there are people dumb enough to think Obama economic plans=McCain's economic plans. There was no change in the subject. You seem pretty confused by this, and I am not sure why.

[Romulox]

93. Stop talking about "most people". What do YOU think is the substantive difference

between John McCain's economic policies and those of Barack Obama?

[Romulox]

95. Uh-huh. Thought so. nt

[Romulox]

34. It neutralizes the economy as an issue for Obama, leaving the campaign to hinge on "culture war"

issues and identity politics. It also opens Obama up to critiques of hypocrisy and selling out in a way that does not apply to McCain, as the Republicans haven't held themselves as the party of "the little guy" for the past 100 years.

[skipos]

36. Wow, you need to pay a bit more attention to McCain.

"hypocrisy and selling out in a way that does not apply to McCain." This sounds delusional to me but then again, so is does your claim that their plans are the same. Bible thumping Devos was in a MUCH better position than McCain is on both culture wars and the economy.

Why is money on McCain to lose MI? The current odds on intrade are about 1:4.

[Romulox]

39. Barack Obama support NAFTA, "free trade", and increased H1B visas. FACT.

Saying "This sounds delusional to me but then again, so is does your claim that their plans are the same," doesn't really address these facts.

[woolldog]

51. both Obama and Clinton have campaigned against NAFTA

in the primary.

[Romulox]

54. Both Obama and Clinton were both caught lying about NAFTA...

More importantly, Barack Obama's chief economic advisor is Austan Goolsbee of the DLC.

Daily Kos: Obama: I Believe In Free Trade

I believe in the Free Market. I believe in Capitalism. I believe in Free Trade. I am not worried about us being able to compete anywhere on earth with American workers --Barack Obama 1-7-2008


http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/2/17/154511/632/40/458637
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nTfJmz3GWeE

[woolldog]

58. yeah like that means anything to the voters of Michigan

who probably don't even know what the dlc is. Compared to McCain, Obama is a protectionist. McCain rolled into Michigan and told them they shouldn't expect to get those good old jobs back.

You're being unduly pessimistic and sour. Neither of the Deomcratic candidates campaigned in Michigan. From what I understand Obama will be going there soon.

[Romulox]

85. Nope. NAFTA, "free trade" and neoliberal economics mean *nothing* to Michigan

This election (like all others) should turn on god, gays, and guns! :puke:

[woolldog]

99. Nope. I said Goolsbee being dlc means nothing to most voters

They don't know who Goolsbee is and they don't know or care what dlc is.

[Romulox]

100. OK. But Obama espouses DLC economic policy crafted by the DLC's chief economist

Michigan voters know damn well that neoliberal economic policies have decimated their communities, even if they don't know the label "neoliberal".

Heck, most DUers don't know (or don't care) about Austan Goolsbee. This doesn't stop some benighted soul from starting an Obama = anti-DLC thread every few minutes.

[skipos]

69. Could you answer my question please?

Why is the money on Obama to handily win MI?

[Romulox]

84. I don't gamble, and therefore I don't care what oddsmakers are saying. nt

[skipos]

87. I am not asking you to gamble, and asking you to propose a theory as to why

most people disagree with you. Can you do it?

[Romulox]

89. Bookies are not "most people". If you look up thread, *pollsters* tend to disagree with the bookies

[skipos]

91. Jesus, do I have to explain what intrade is to you now?

Bookies don't set the odds there. I am not trying to be a dick, but you are just to dense to have a conversation with.

[Romulox]

92. I know what it is; I am not interested in it. It has no bearing whatever on Obama's neoliberal

economic policies, or how they are received in Michigan.

[movonne]

19. Oh I guess mc cain will do a wonderful job...100 year war..anti-abortion,

and his economy plans are wonderful...can hardly wait for mc cain...

[Romulox]

26. There you go...I talk about the economy, you talk about abortion, war...anything BUT the economy

This doesn't work any more.

[woolldog]

24. he just needs to campaign in Michigan.

Remember he hasn't done that yet.

If there's any politician who has consistently proven able to close distance between himself and an opponent through campaigning, it's Obama.

[bookman]

40. Do you really think...

...McCain people understand how angry people in Michigan are over the economy?


Obama will need to campaign there, something he hasn't had much of chance to do.

[Romulox]

43. Yup.

McCain has been here 3 or so times in 2008 to Obamas zero. The McCain campaign will fight hard for Michigan, and he has a good chance of winning here. I've been trying to warn the "punish Michigan!"/"low information voter"/"bitter"/"white working class are RACISTS!!11!!11" crowd for months now.

[MadBadger]

47. Obama will fight hard for Michigan too.

There is a reasonable explanation for McCain being there 3 times and Obama being there zero you know.

[bookman]

52. Makes no sense.

McCain would be a disaster for all working class Americans, white or not.

I know emotions have been high for the last few months, but think about it.

[democrattotheend]

76. Who says Obama is out of ideas? And why would McCain be better on the economy?

I don't disagree that Obama needs to spend time in Michigan and make a strong economic pitch, but do people there really find McCain's economic ideas appealing? If the people in Michigan are so angry about the economy after 8 years of Bush wouldn't that be a bad thing for McCain?

[Romulox]

86. When two people agree on something, there is no point of contrast.

"If the people in Michigan are so angry about the economy after 8 years of Bush wouldn't that be a bad thing for McCain?"

If Obama comes to Michigan preaching "I believe in free trade," he can't criticize McCain's substantially identical trade policies.

[my3boyz]

64. Someone on the news said that some kind of trial with

the mayor of Detroit has caused a huge racial divide in Michigan. They said they have heard from locals that it will be very hard for a black person to win Michigan this year? Who knows if this is true?

[MadBadger]

3. Jim Webb as Veep and we win the election. It's that simple.

[Blondiegrrl]

6. But ... but ... I thought Michigan was angry with Obama for not

"allowing" them to seat the delegates.

[PBS Poll-435]

8. They appear to be angry...

A solid Dem state for the last 4 elections and DU's "presumptive nominee" is behind there.

[MadBadger]

9. Let me know what happens once Obama gets a chance to campaign there.

[skipos]

21. MI's is about +5% Dem in presidential elections

and since Obama has not set foot here (McCain and his surrogates have) I don't think it will be a problem.

[MadBadger]

23. Kerry took it +3 in 2004

[skipos]

29. I am talking about the Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

it compares the state's popular vote to the national popular vote.

MI '88: 0.18% Republican
MI '92: 1.83% Democratic
MI '96: 4.68% Democratic
MI '00: 4.63% Democratic
MI '04: 5.88% Democratic

So MI was 5.88% MORE Dem than the national average. It is a better way of looking at trends than just the state's popular vote.

[MadBadger]

7. Where did you find the leaked info?

[woolldog]

11. this site:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

[Obamamaniac_25]

45. Great site-n/t

[woolldog]

59. one of my favorites. nt

[Muttocracy]

10. lots of room for improvement in undecideds too. nt

[woolldog]

15. I think this November will be all about

getting out the vote! There's a big enthusiasm gap right now between Dems and Repubs. And I don't know if these polls capture that.

[Muttocracy]

48. I bet McCain is like Hillary months ago - already hit the peak of support. nt

[Robbins]

16. Polls

Obama has Improved In Virginia.This proves what some have been saying and It Is In play.NC
could be a battleground.Remember after all the attacks on Obama and he Is In a dead heat with
Mccain there.Mccain should be worried about his dream of carrying Michigan.After all the contovsary.
And the fact Obama has yet to campagin there and they are almost tied.Obama looks stronger In Oregon than Gore,or Kerry.

[Cali_Democrat]

13. Michigan will slowly drift toward Obama as time goes on

Virginia and NC are officially in plays for the Dems because of Obama.

[polticalpout]

22. What about Ohio?

I'm nervous about that one.

[woolldog]

28. the latest Ohio poll was the Quinnipiac "swing state" poll

at the end of April. McCain ahead by 1.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_quinnipiac_fl_pa_oh_42329.php

[Secret_Society]

35. and Clinton +10

[woolldog]

49. Nobody cares

since she will not be the nominee. Clinton's numbers in Ohio v. McCain are as relevant as Al Gore's or or John Edward's or Bill Clinton's numbers v. McCain in Ohio....i.e., not relevant.

[bhikkhu]

30. Good news in my home state Oregon!

But a squeaker where there was a great deal of work to do would be ok too...

[Name removed]

38. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[mikiturner]

42. These are polls with margin of error, not results

He is statistically TIED in three contests and dominating in the fourth.

[Romulox]

46. The fellow upthread is attempting to argue a tie is good news for a state that trends strongly Dem

:shrug:

[hokies4ever]

50. It is good news

when you consider the free pass McCain is getting in the media right now compared to all of the recent pastorbating. I bet that the average American knows more about Rev. Wright than they do about, say, the Supreme Court justices.

[woolldog]

53. Exactly.

I'm interested in movement. Michigan has remain unchanged. NC, VA, and OR have improved.

I'm interested in the fact that Obama is competitive and within striking distance in two traditionally red states: NC and VA. This legitimizes the idea of a guy like Webb as VP.

That's why I feel these polls are good overall.

[gmudem]

57. Michigan is hardly "strongly" Dem

Dems usually do win it, but as has been mentioned Kerry won it by 3 points. To assume that Michigan would be a cakewalk for any Democrat would be a stupid mistake.

[Romulox]

88. Which is why I have been warning for months that McCain could well take Michigan. nt

[gmudem]

101. Ok?

Michigan is very much a purple state so it could go either way. However I will be shocked if they go for McCain considering their economic problems at the moment. I don't see how they could support another neo-con.

[gmudem]

56. Really man?

The Michigan, Virginia, and North Carolina polls are all within the MOE.

And the big point is that Virginia and North Carolina are both RED STATES that McBush will need to win. If Obama can win those 2 states that would almost guarantee victory overall. And even if he doesn't he can for McBush to spend money there that he won't be able to spend in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc.

And if he could win Oregon by that big of a margin that would be huge, Oregon is a blue state in presidential elections but usually by pretty small margins.

Obama has a great chance of winning Virginia and that would be a huge gain for Democrats.

[marlakay]

55. give it time folks were just getting started!

and polls were taken pre grieving period for hillarys folks.

[Carrieyazel]

60. 3 points will be as close as Obama can get it in VA and NC

The polls look enticing, but VA and NC are likely to come home for the (R) presidential candidate. I'm curious about those undecideds. Some of them could be undecided because they may have racial qualms about going with a black candidate and can't make up their minds.

These two states haven't gone Democratic in presidential elections in many years. Turning them will be exceedingly difficult. They have far more upscale, liberal-leaning white voters than the other states in the region, which accounts for the competitiveness. But just enough of the old guard are still hanging around there to deny Obama.

[woolldog]

61. I don't agree.

At one point Obama was ahead in VA (and I don't mean w/in the margin of error; I mean ahead). And VA has already elected an AA governor. Add Jim Webb to the ticket and VA can be flipped.

NC I believe will depend on turnout, voter mobilization etc.

Don't forget the big picture though: As someone already mentioned on this thread even if he doesn't win these states, simply forcing McCain to spend time and money defending 2 red states is huge.

[marions ghost]

74. the old guard

can't rig elections as much as they used to....this is huge

You underestimate the degree of buyer's remorse for BushCo

You also overestimate the degree to which race or gender is a factor these days (gay is the biggest hurdle now re prejudices).

It's a loose ball in VA and NC now.

[democrattotheend]

79. A lot of Democratic insiders are optimistic about Virginia

The DC suburbs in Northern Virginia keep growing and becoming more Democratic. Loudon County, an exurb of DC, used to be heavily Republican, but as it has grown it has become more Democratic...Webb won it by a few points in 2006. Northern Virginia also has very active Democratic groups that are working hard to turn the state blue. McCain still has the edge, but I think Virginia will definitely be in play for 2008. And the Senate race should help too...hopefully Mark Warner will have reverse coattails. And I kind of like the idea of Tim Kaine for VP.

[Zachstar]

63. This is good news so far. We will know what we really need to work on a few days after Clinton exits

[SaveAmerica]

65. This is before McCain starts speaking, can't wait for debates.

[shaniqua6392]

66. The media in Michigan is VERY pro McCain.

When he drops in for a fund raiser or town hall it is like Jesus came to town. Obama may win the Detroit, Flint, Saginaw and Ann Arbor areas but the rest of the state is questionable. If it were Senator Clinton running against McCain, she would win this state. The unions were also behind Clinton but have not switched their allegiance to Obama as of yet.

[democrattotheend]

77. UAW is neutral...never endorsed a candidate

Except that the UAW in one region endorsed Obama. I know Wisconsin was in that region, but I don't think Michigan is.

[shaniqua6392]

96. The UAW does come out and endorse specifically.

They endorsed John Kerry in the 2004 election, for example. They are not neutral, although they remain non partisan. We get fliers in the mail before every election telling us who to vote for. The word also spreads quickly in the plants among workers on the favorable candidate.

[democrattotheend]

97. Sorry, I meant in this election, this year

I know they have endorsed in the past. I just meant they had not yet endorsed Clinton or Obama.

[woolldog]

102. All the polling data over the last few month says the opposite.

That Clinton is weaker in MI than Obama. Though she outperforms him by only 1 point in this latest survey, it is the first time she's outperformed Obama in Michigan AFAIK.

Like I said, it doesn't matter anyway. Clinton's poll numbers in a matchup v. McCain are as relevant as Santa Claus v. McCain or the Tooth Fairy v. McCain.

[NJmaverick]

67. That is not a bad starting point

The way I see it, the better America gets to know both men, the more the numbers will shift toward Obama. So these numbers are a pretty good starting point.

[mmonk]

68. I say NC goes Obama. I doubt these polls factor in well

the college vote which is heavy here. The fact polls were showing Clinton closing on Obama's lead right before the vote but the margin was much larger I think bears out my argument.

[NashVegas]

71. Re-arranging the Deck Chairs On the Titanic

[Beacool]

78. The obvious reason being that Hillary does better against McCain in these states?

Except for Oregon.

[MadBadger]

82. Are you blind?

She only does better in Michigan, tied instead of losing by one. Obama does better in Oregon and VA, while in NC they lose by 3. Every number is within the MOE, except for Hillary losing by six in VA, and Obama beating McCain big in Oregon.

[woolldog]

103. The obvious reason being that she will not be the nominee.

How she matches up v. McCain, whether it's better or worse, is no longer relevant since she will not be the nominee.

It's why Rasmussen is going to stop tracking her nationally soon.

[Maribelle]

94. Florida: McCain Trounces Obama, Even with Clinton

Sorry - but this is the latest on Florida that I can find by Rasmussen


McCain 53%
Obama 38%

Clinton 45%
McCain 44%.



http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/florida/election_2008_florida_presidential_election

[democrattotheend]

98. That's from a while ago, as you said

A more recent Quinnipiac poll had Obama one point down in Florida: http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1173

That being said, I do think Florida is an uphill battle for him. But I think a lot of Democrats were not considering it as important this year even when Clinton looked inevitable.