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http://www.electoral-vote.com/Finally, the suspense is over. We now know whether there was a post-convention bounce for Kerry. Answer: there was. Of course, there always is, and it evens up after the other convention, but for the moment, Kerry has received a boost. He is now ahead in the electoral college 328 to 210, with all 50 states and D.C. reporting for duty (we had two ties until today). The Wall Street Journal's estimate using a different methodology is 318 to 220. Close enough for government work.
Zogby has released polls in 16 battleground states. As usual in such a tight race, there is good news and bad news for all the candidates (except Nader, for whom all the news is bad--he is dropping practically everywhere). First the good news for Kerry. He is ahead, albeit by small margins, in 13 of the key 16 states in which the election will be won or lost, including a 3% margin in Florida (which is still within the margin of error). What's more, Michigan and Pennsylvania, two states hard hit by job losses, have been solidly in his column for well over a month now. In addition, Kerry and Bush are still statistically tied in Tennessee for the third poll in a row. Making Tennessee a battleground state is good news for Kerry. Bush was supposed to win this one without a fight.
Now the good news for Bush. He has increased his shaky lead in Ohio to 5%, so we now rate the state weak Bush instead of a tossup. This is very good news indeed for Bush. For him, no Ohio, no White House. Florida flipped compared to yesterday, but the difference is within the margin of error. Also good for Bush, he is ahead again in Nevada, but don't bet on it. It's illegal. Even in Nevada. Also positive for Bush is that Kerry's 10% lead in New Mexico has vanished into the desert. It is now 1% for Kerry, a statistical tie. 
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