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I'm projecting that Hillary will win 19 out of WV's 28 delegates. And it's not enough.

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ButterflyBlood Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 07:11 PM
Original message
I'm projecting that Hillary will win 19 out of WV's 28 delegates. And it's not enough.
That's 68% of delegates. A hefty number, right?

Except there's 466.5 delegates remaining counting pledged ones from contests not happened yet and undeclared supers. Hillary needs 327.5 of those to win. That's over 70% of remaining delegates. So if Hillary does get this blowout indeed, she'll still be further behind in delegates needed to win.

That's what people so giddy about WV and Kentucky later need to understand. Yes Hillary's going to win big there, and no it's not going to make a difference. Hillary's landslides in those states STILL won't be enough for her to even cut the percentage of remaining delegates she needs. Hillary could win EVERY remaining state in numbers similar to those, and it still won't be enough. And that obviously won't happen, so Montana, South Dakota and Oregon are going to make the numbers even more ugly.
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rsmith6621 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 07:14 PM
Response to Original message
1. No More Than 2 points



will be the difference between her and Obama come Tuesday.....People have had enough of her antics...

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Renew Deal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 07:20 PM
Response to Original message
2. If Hillary doesn't get at least 70% in WV, it's a sign of her evaporating support.
Anything less than 70% is another sign it's over.
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pkz Donating Member (595 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 07:27 PM
Response to Original message
3. Here's how the delegates are allocated
West Virginia has 39 delegates total to the Democratic National Convention. There are 28 pledged delegates at stake in the primary, 10 named super-delegates, and 1 (to-be-named) unpledged add-on.

* Primary voters will determine the allocation of 28 delegates between Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

* Primary votes will determine the allocation of 5 different delegate pools, each with either district-wide or state-wide proportional representation.

* The three congressional districts each have 6 delegates at stake, these are proportionally assigned by congressional district-wide vote totals. The most likely outcome for all 3 CD's is a 3-3 delegate split. A 4-2 split is also quite possible if a candidate runs up the vote within a congressional district.

* There is a pool of 7 pledged at-large delegates proportionally assigned by the state-wide popular vote total in the primary. The most likely split for this pool is 4-3. A 5-2 split also possible if if one candidate does very well statewide.

* There is a pool of 3 Pledged Party Leaders and Elected Officials (PLEOs) proportionally assigned by the state-wide popular vote total in the primary. The almost guaranteed split for this pool is 2-1.

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rocktivity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 07:40 PM
Response to Original message
4. She needs 86% of the vote to make it count--in WV and everywhere else.
Meanwhile, if Obama manages even just 36% of WV, he'll actually come out ahead.

:headbang:
rocknation

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Oleladylib Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 08:53 PM
Response to Original message
5. pro'bly more.
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Oleladylib Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 08:54 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. it's a fact that neither will get enough..so be it.
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