THE MATH – Wednesday, May 7 – After North Carolina and Indiana

[phrigndumass]

THE MATH – Wednesday, May 7 – After North Carolina and Indiana

3:30 p.m. Eastern Time (US)

Please Note: We believe that we now have a mathematical presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party for President of the United States: Barack Obama. If you agree with this statement, please click the link below and co-sign the document by replying and recommending. Thank you!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5851052


********************************************

Delegates needed to win nomination – 2,024.5 (considering status quo)
Pledged Delegates in – 3,036.0 of 3,253.0 – 93.3%

********************************************

THE MAGIC NUMBER

Here’s what we have after considering the information in the Polls section below and adding well-known add-on superdelegates for both candidates:

Senator Obama’s Magic Number – 42 of 213 remaining superdelegates needed, or 19.7%
Senator Clinton’s Magic Number – 190 of 213 remaining superdelegates needed, or 89.2%

The Huckabee Index – 23 (or 10.8% of remaining superdelegates needed)

The “Huckabee Index” is the number of any combination of superdelegates and convention/caucus delegates that the Obama campaign needs (or the Clinton campaign loses) to make it mathematically impossible for the Clinton campaign to win the nomination, based on current delegate count and polls for upcoming contests. (Disclaimer: This is meant to poke fun at Mike Huckabee, not Hillary Clinton)

Spreadsheet (Feel free to download)



PROJECTED END-RESULTS OF PRIMARIES BASED ON POLLS:

Projected Pledged Delegates at the end of the race:
Barack Obama – 1,692.5 (66 above HALF) <--- Expected to reach halfway mark on May 20
Hillary Clinton – 1,542.5 (84 below HALF)



Projected Hybrid “Popular” Vote at the end of the race:
Barack Obama – 17,404,174 (+490,771)
Hillary Clinton – 16,913,403



********************************************

TOTAL DELEGATES

Estimated Total Delegates as of May 7:
Barack Obama – 1,846.5 (178 short)
Hillary Clinton – 1,700.5 (324 short)
Remaining Total Delegates – 483
(Sources: NBC, Wikipedia 5/07/08)

SUPERDELEGATES

Superdelegates (highest reported for each candidate):
Barack Obama – 256 (Source: NBC 5/07/08)
Hillary Clinton – 273 (Source: NBC 5/07/08)
Remaining Superdelegates – 266

PLEDGED DELEGATES

Estimated Pledged Delegates as of May 7:
Barack Obama – 1,590.5 (36 short of HALF) <--- This is the Pelosi Club number
Hillary Clinton – 1,427.5 (199 short of HALF)
Remaining Pledged Delegates – 217
(Source: Wikipedia 5/07/08)

OVERALL CONTESTS WON: Barack Obama – 32; Hillary Clinton – 17

PRIMARIES WON: Barack Obama – 17; Hillary Clinton – 14

CAUCUSES WON: Barack Obama – 14; Hillary Clinton – 3

BLUE AND RED STATES WON:
Barack Obama – 11 Blue, 17 Red
Hillary Clinton – 7 Blue, 9 Red

********************************************

HYBRID “POPULAR” VOTE (for informational purposes only)

Disclaimer: The purpose of votes in a primary election cycle is to select delegates. Superdelegates may use a hybrid total of votes as a method of choosing which candidate to endorse, but doing so doesn’t justify the universal existence of such a method.

Status Quo, as of May 7:
Barack Obama – 16,257,094 (+831,016)
Hillary Clinton – 15,426,078
(Source: Wikipedia 5/07/08)

With Florida only added, as of May 7:
Barack Obama – 16,833,308 (+536,244)
Hillary Clinton – 16,297,064

With Florida and Michigan added, as of May 7*:
Barack Obama – 16,833,308 (+207,935)
Hillary Clinton – 16,625,373
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)

Special Sidenote:
Half of Senator Clinton’s total hybrid “popular” votes (50%) have come from only 5 states:
CA – 2,608,184
TX – 1,459,814
PA – 1,259,466
OH – 1,212,362
NY – 1,068,496
Total – 7,608,322 of 15,426,078

********************************************

SUPERDELEGATES NEEDED IF REMAINING PLEDGED DELEGATES ARE 50/50 SPLIT

All scenarios (2 through 9) showing Florida or Michigan being seated as is or holding new elections have been removed.

Hillary Clinton needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 50/50:
1. Status Quo – Clinton needs 197 of 213, or 92.3% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Clinton needs 192 of 214, or 89.7% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 184 of 225, or 81.8% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 180 of 226, or 79.6% of remaining SDs

Barack Obama needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 50/50:
1. Status Quo – Obama needs 36 of 213, or 16.7% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Obama needs 52 of 214, or 24.3% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Obama needs 39 of 225, or 17.3% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Obama needs 56 of 226, or 24.8% of remaining SDs

The “Florida Half-count” would net 52.5 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 33.5 pledged delegates for Senator Obama. The “Michigan Compromise” would net 83.0 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 73.0 pledged delegates for Senator Obama.

********************************************

SUPERDELEGATES NEEDED IF REMAINING PLEDGED DELEGATES ARE 55/45 CLINTON

All scenarios (2 through 9) showing Florida or Michigan being seated as is or holding new elections have been removed.

Hillary Clinton needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 55/45:
1. Status Quo – Clinton needs 185 of 213, or 86.9% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Clinton needs 181 of 214, or 84.3% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 173 of 225, or 76.7% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 169 of 226, or 74.6% of remaining SDs

Barack Obama needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 55/45:
1. Status Quo – Obama needs 47 of 213, or 22.1% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Obama needs 64 of 214, or 29.7% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Obama needs 51 of 225, or 22.4% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Obama needs 68 of 226, or 29.9% of remaining SDs

The “Florida Half-count” would net 52.5 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 33.5 pledged delegates for Senator Obama. The “Michigan Compromise” would net 83.0 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 73.0 pledged delegates for Senator Obama.

*********************************************

FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN SCENARIOS REGARDING PLEDGED DELEGATES

These are the possible scenarios concerning Florida and Michigan, and what it would require for Senator Clinton to catch up to Senator Obama in pledged delegates. These scenarios are for pledged delegates only. Superdelegate counts are not included. (Note: All scenarios (2 through 9) showing Florida or Michigan being seated as is or holding new elections have been removed.)

The “Florida Half-count” would net 52.5 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 33.5 pledged delegates for Senator Obama. The “Michigan Compromise” would net 83.0 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 73.0 pledged delegates for Senator Obama.

Scenario 1 – Status Quo (without Florida and Michigan)
Senator Obama needs 12.4% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to stay ahead
Senator Clinton needs 87.6% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to catch up

Scenario 10 – Florida Half-count, Michigan not seated
Senator Obama needs 16.8% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to stay ahead
Senator Clinton needs 83.2% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to catch up

Scenario 11 – Florida not seated, Michigan Compromise
Senator Obama needs 14.7% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to stay ahead
Senator Clinton needs 85.3% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to catch up

Scenario 12 – Florida Half-count, Michigan Compromise
Senator Obama needs 19.1% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to stay ahead
Senator Clinton needs 80.9% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to catch up

********************************************

Sources:
Superdelegates (highest reported for each)
Pledged Delegates
Popular Vote
Projections and Charts (spreadsheet)
State Populations 2007

Latest Polls:
West Virginia
Oregon
Kentucky
Puerto Rico
South Dakota

More Links:

Brokered Convention

Official Delegate Selection Rules for the 2008 Democratic National Convention

Link to the spreadsheet (feel free to download and create your own scenarios):
Spreadsheet

Link to my journal … For past editions, click on the link to view my past journal entries:
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/phrigndumass

********************************************

GENERAL ELECTION SECTION

Projected Electoral Votes (270 needed):
Obama – 264
McCain – 263
Ties – 11
(Source: Electoral-Vote.com 5/07)

Projected Popular Vote:
Obama – 58,195,505 (45.9%)
McCain – 55,770,552 (44.0%)
Undecided/Other – 12,754,943 (10.1%)







Check out a preview of the new spreadsheet for the General Election Math!

********************************************



Please keep this thread bumped for easier access in GDP.




:dunce:

[phrigndumass]

1. Save this sub-thread for OP updates

Don't reply in this particular subthread. Thanks!

[phrigndumass]

40. MSNBC FirstRead: "Hillary V. Huckabee?"

Source: MSNBC

<snip>

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro

Compare Clinton today to Huckabee in February, and it's worth noting the similarities as this continues. Similar statements on math and notice GOP operative saying it's OK for Huckabee to stay in the race, "as long as Mike Huckabee stays positive."

...

(1) CLINTON (today at West Virginia news conference):
QUESTION: Does your statement today mean that you intend to stay in this race through the vote on the convention floor?

CLINTON: Well, I'm staying in this race until there's a nominee. And I obviously am going to work as hard as I can to become that nominee. That is what I've done; that's what I'm continuing to do. I believe that I'm the stronger candidate against Senator McCain. And I believe I would be the best president among the three of us running. So we will continue to contest these elections and move forward.

(2) HUCKABEE ON STAYING IN THE RACE
FEB. 12 (CNN): "As long as my guys are still waving their pompoms, I think we're going to stay on the field. The goal is still to win ... Everybody keeps talking about, 'Well, the math doesn't work.' We don't know what is going to happen. You don't just throw people's votes out and say, 'Well, we're not going to bother counting them because we kind of think we know where this was going."

Feb. 13 (FOX): "Well, the game may be for us to go to the convention, if nobody gets 1,191 delegates, and that's still a possibility. Until someone gets that magic number, we still have an election process, and there is no nominee. Once that happens, we've got a nominee, and it's time to rally around him. And so if that's not me, then we'll rally around who it is. But if we don't have one and we go to the convention, then we'll make the decision at that convention, and the delegates will decide. I'll have as good a chance as anybody."

<end Snip>

MORE

Read more: http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/05/07/991935.aspx

***************************************

So, whatcha think?

[phrigndumass]

43. Yahoo! News: "Obama Gains (4) Superdelegates, Clinton Vows to Stay in Race"

Huckabee Index now down to ** 19 ** !!!

*******************************************

Source: Yahoo! News

By CALVIN WOODWARD, Associated Press Writer

<snip>

WASHINGTON - Barack Obama pocketed the support of at least four Democratic convention superdelegates on Wednesday, building on the momentum from a convincing North Carolina primary victory. Rival Hillary Rodham Clinton vowed to remain in the race "until there's a nominee."

...

Clinton also disclosed that she had loaned her campaign an additional $6.4 million in recent weeks, evidence that her once front-runner campaign was in deep trouble.

She told reporters the loans were a sign of her commitment to her quest for the White House. She earlier loaned herself $5 million as she struggled to keep up with a better-financed Obama campaign.

Obama, now the front-runner, was home in Chicago during the day as his aides spread word that he would soon begin campaigning in states likely to be pivotal in the fall campaign. They also relayed word of the four endorsements, expected to be made public later in the day. Both disclosures were meant to signal fresh confidence that the nomination was quickly coming into his possession after a grueling marathon across 15 months and nearly all 50 states.

...

In a memorandum to superdelegates, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe reminded them of the delegate math necessary to secure the nomination. He said Clinton would need to win 68 percent of the remaining delegates to win — an extremely unlikely scenario, made harder by her poor performance Tuesday.

<end snip>

MORE

Read more: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/primary_rdp

[phrigndumass]

67. John Zogby: "Clinton Heading For the Exit"

Holy crap! Thirty more superdelegates to endorse Obama in the next 48 hours!

****************************************

Source: BBC News

<snip>

By John Zogby
Independent pollster and political analyst

...

Where do we go from here? My understanding is that probably today, but certainly within 48 hours, about 30 super-delegates will endorse Mr Obama. That should give him further momentum.

Mathematically, this will widen the gap between him and Mrs Clinton. He has a bigger share of the popular vote, more pledged delegates, and will now overtake her in terms of super-delegates too.

<end snip>

(emphasis mine)

MORE

Read more: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7387919.stm

[phrigndumass]

2. Granting permission to use this information here on DU and on internet

I am granting permission for everyone to use any of this information, in whole or in part, in other threads here on DU, and anywhere on the internet.

- phrigndumass

[Nickster]

3. Great job with the numbers. Thanks for sharing them.

[phrigndumass]

7. Thanks Nickster, and you're welcome!

First replier gets the mmmmmmmm!



:headbang:

[Nickster]

58. Yumm! Heh heh

[anigbrowl]

4. k/r. I think he has it wrapped up.

[phrigndumass]

9. Thanks and Yeppers!

:hi:

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

5. "I was told there would be no math!"

[phrigndumass]

11. LOL ... Be good, or St. Peter might send you to hell !

That's all they do there ... MATH (oh, and tanning and weeping and gnashing of teeth, too) :headbang:

[TheWraith]

6. Kicked and recommended. nt

[phrigndumass]

37. Thanks, TheWraith!

:hi:

[nxylas]

8. The superdelegates are the wrong way round

I checked the NBC site and it should be HRC: 273, BHO: 256.

[phrigndumass]

17. Thanks for catching that, nxylas. Edited.

Maybe it was wishful thinking LOL

:hi:

[nxylas]

27. Yeah, I did a doubletake when I saw that

I suspect we're not far off the point where Obama will overtake Clinton in superdelegates, but I doubt it will be by that big a margin on the first day.

[IDemo]

10. fantastic work, these posts should be pinned

Don't forget that "some" here feel 1.4 = 2, however. :dunce:

[helderheid]

15. agreed!

[phrigndumass]

20. Ha! Rounding is for Squares!

:rofl:

:hi:

[SoCalDem]

12. TX – 1,459,814.. PA – 1,259,466.. OH – 1,212,362

These states ALL contain "numbers" with the Limbaugh effect in them..

3,931,642 total..

IF The Limbaugh Effect were only 2% that number would be 78,632..... not an insignificant number if the totals ever did get "close"... but of course there is not failsafe way to even measure..:grr: It could be higher

[phrigndumass]

18. Good point, SoCalDem

I wish there were some way of knowing for sure ...

:hi:

[SoCalDem]

30. 9% of her voters in IN will vote for McCain.. that's a BIG number

That would translate into a lot more...for TX,OH,PA



anigbrowl (1000+ posts) Wed May-07-08 12:27 PM
Response to Reply #22

23. Go look at CNNs exit polls

it seems she derived about 60k votes more than Obama from people who plan to vote McCain in the GE.

[phrigndumass]

33. Wow.

There should be a law against it ...

[dbmk]

36. yeah

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5869508&mesg_id=5869508

I have it a approx. 50-55k+ for Hillary in "Won't vote Dem in Nov. at all" category.

[dbmk]

34. There is to some degree

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5869508&mesg_id=5869508

I am using the exit polls to see how many Hillary voters wont wote for Hillary in Nov. And the same for Obama. Those must be our Gasbag numbers.

And in the states I've tested it on, Hillary wins out every time significantly.

[SoCalDem]

41. and if you look at earlier states, their "support" was fairly consistent

Obama's has remained consistent all thoughout the primaries, except for when it has actually dropped (the wright debacle)..hers is the ONLY one that has increased..and in unnatural numbers..

No one will convince me that all of a sudden, people who have LOATHED & DESPISED her for over a decade, would all of a sudden, start loving her...

[speedoo]

13. K&R, and bookmarked.

[phrigndumass]

22. Thanks speedoo!

:hi:

[bigbrother05]

14. Contests won Obama 32

[phrigndumass]

21. Oops, forgot Guuuaaaaaammmmmmm! Edited.

Thanks, bigbrother05!

:patriot:

[bigbrother05]

23. You're welcome

Good job as always

[dbmk]

16. K/R for the love of math

[phrigndumass]

24. Thanks dbmk! You rawk!

:headbang:

[dbmk]

32. no, you rock! :)

But what are we going to do once Obama is the confirmed nominee?
Your electoral college system is kinda boring compared to this, but I guess we will have to find some way of mathify the hell out of it. :)

[phrigndumass]

35. Once I stop paying so much attention to the primary math ...

... the GE math will definitely be on steroids. Tons of ideas are going through my tiny little brain ...

:dunce:

[Richard Steele]

19. K&R

[phrigndumass]

38. Thanks dicksteele!

:hi:

[Bensthename]

25. You had me at the first graph.

:toast:

[phrigndumass]

28. LOL ... Don't forget Jerry's mission statement

http://www.thisisawar.com/PurposeJerry.htm

"The things we think and do not say" (hehe)

Thanks Ben!

:hi:

[Hamlette]

26. yeah, but if you take out Illinois because he had an unfair advantage there

gawd, he LIVES there for hells sake. How could THAT be fair?

Then she wins the popular vote if you take away all his votes in Illinois and the other states that would have voted for Hillary if they hadn't been sexist.

[phrigndumass]

31. But but, they have ** dirt **

Wide swaths of open land where few people live ... now them's the type of voters Hypothetical Hillary likes!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5867816

:hi:

[tulsakatz]

29. great post!!

the graphics make it look like such an easy decision.....

[phrigndumass]

42. Thanks, tulsakatz!

I had to go to google school to learn how to create and post the graphics :dunce:

:hi:

[Scurrilous]

39. K & R

:thumbsup:

[phrigndumass]

44. (pssst ... hi scurrilous!)

:hi:

[grantcart]

45. lots of color good -- what is the Huckabee Index?

[phrigndumass]

46. Considering we've been told to stick our pretty colors where the sun don't shine ...

:rofl:

Did you hear that Obama is picking up at least four supers today? New Hucknumber 19! Link to article in the third post from the top.

MSNBC is even comparing Hillary to Huckabee. Hillabee?

[grantcart]

47. one is a switch too just got back DemconWatch has a new graph

[phrigndumass]

49. That red line is attacking Hillary's blue line, ouch!

Won't be there for long. Red is headed south on the highway to hell, passing da purple. Maybe blue will follow red straight to hell? She lost one already today.

Tangent: I can't remember any other words in that AC/DC song except "I'm on the hiiiigh - way to hell (neer-neer) hiiiigh - way to hell (neer-neer) I'm on the hiiiigh - way to helllllllll"

P.S. I'm on a hell kick today, for some reason, in case you didn't notice.

:7

[mmonk]

74. I like that red line trend.

[grantcart]

48. i must have missed that sun shine

the interesting thing about that thread was the high number of long term DU people who have very low posts that joined in

[phrigndumass]

50. you were intoxicated by the champagne (lol)

You even replied to it.

I noticed those DU posters, yes! Kinda makes you feel honored that they would choose to post in your thread.

[grantcart]

51. how did you find that reference to the thread by Lester

[phrigndumass]

53. I must be thick at the moment ... who the hell is Lester?

lol

[phrigndumass]

56. OH ... Steven Leser ... duh!

stevenleser sent me a PM with a link to it, way nice, huh?

(if stevenleser is reading, THANKS and good job on the article!)

http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_steven_l_080507_barack_obama_is_the_.htm

"Barack Obama is the New Comeback Kid"

[grantcart]

52. by the way I just noticed you were only one delegate off of last night's projection

[phrigndumass]

54. Psychic John Edward spoke to my dead cat, who contacted Oprah's dead ...

llama (she has spitting llamas), and the llama spoke to Oprah and asked her to time-travel into the future and get those delegate numbers. Oprah told her dead llama, who told my dead cat, and John Edward channelled Fluffy and told me what Oprah found out.

Voila! Bitch lied to me, missed it by one!

:7

[Zachstar]

55. Very VERY good news!

Looking forward to the 20th!

[phrigndumass]

57. Only 13 more *years* until the 20th!

:P

[DerekJ]

59. Thanks ..as usual .. a post worthy to be sent to SDs, and news sources.

[phrigndumass]

61. Thanks DerekJ!

We're catching on:
http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_steven_l_080507_barack_obama_is_the_.htm

cool, huh?

:hi:

[DerekJ]

62. Awesome :) ... email it to KO.

[Upton]

60. Thanks another great job

I'm still buzzing from last night!

[phrigndumass]

63. "still buzzing from last night!" ... me 2!

After replying to you, I'm gonna go curl up in a comfy corner and snore for the next 12 hours.

Thanks Upton!

:hi:

[grantcart]

64. NYT agrees

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/delegatecalculator/index.html

[phrigndumass]

66. Awesome!

[GoneOffShore]

65. It's bumped!!

and rec'd

[phrigndumass]

70. Thanks GoneOffShore!

:hi:

[mikekohr]

68. SWEET!!!!! nt

mike kohr

[mmonk]

69. Good work.

:thumbsup:

[phrigndumass]

71. Thanks mmonk!

:hi:

[WillyT]

72. As Always... Outstanding !!! - K & R !!!

:bounce::woohoo::bounce:

Thank you!!!

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

73. Thanks WillyT !!!

Have a great day!

:hi: :bounce:

[Apollo11]

75. NO!!!! --- NOT THE MATH AGAIN!! --- ENOUGH ALREADY!!!!

YOU ARE KILLING MY CANDIDATE WITH YOUR NUMERICAL NONSENSE!!!

The bottom line is: we don't yet have a nominee.

QUEEN HILLABEE told me! B-)

[phrigndumass]

76. Who can resist your charm, Apollo11?

:rofl:

You're a winner in my book because you make me laugh!

:toast:

[longship]

77. Presumptive nominee Obama!!

I love the sound of that.

Recommended and :kick:ed

[phrigndumass]

78. Thanks longship!

Soon we'll be able to call him President Obama.

:hi: