The Impossibility of a Clinton Nomination (the answer lies with McCain)

[berni_mccoy]

As David Swanson noted in his latest DU Journal entry, http://journals.democraticunderground.com/davidswanson/454, and as Grantcart and Phrigndumass have shown in their latest mathematical proof, http://journals.democraticunderground.com/phrigndumass/35, Clinton needs to win 90% of the remaining votes in order to win the nomination.

It sounds improbable and impossible. However, some see that 10% as a plausible chance. Let's review, simply, why it isn't even remotely possible using a little technique called proof by contradiction. Let's give Clinton every benefit of the doubt and assume Obama dropped out tomorrow, leaving her as the only candidate left. How many votes would she get? To answer this, we have a very real metric to consider: John McCain's voter percentage since he has been the presumptive nominee. Here are McCain's percentages since the last GOP Contender, Huckabee, dropped out:

Mississippi: 79%
Indiana: 77%
Pennsylvania: 73%
North Carolina: 73%

AVERAGE MCCAIN PERCENTAGE SINCE BEING THE PRESUMPTIVE NOMNIEE: 75.5%

Clinton Needs 90%. Even if Obama dropped out today, she's not going to break 75% in the remaining votes. It is truly over.

This is why her own staff is coming out today and saying she can't win, but she doesn't acknowledge it yet. This is why Clinton SDs like McGovern are defecting or soon to defect and back the true Democratic Presumptive Nominee: Obama.

[berni_mccoy]

1. .

shameless :kick:

[grantcart]

2. excellent point

If Obama was abducted by aliens she couldn't get the nomination and we would have to find somebody else

[LisaL]

4. LOL.

Nothing could be further from the truth.

[LisaL]

3. Well, that's a bunch of baloney.

If Obama were to drop out, she obviously would be first in line to become the nominee.
By the way her and Obama are in exact same situation. Neither will get enough votes for the nomination.

[grantcart]

5. Obama has only 38 more pledged delegates before he wins the pledged majority

then a number of super delegates will endorse him

In 3 days Obama has gained 12 superdelegates as much as Hillary won in her big win in PA

[anigbrowl]

6. They're not in the same situation...because he has a lead

Clinton fans keep saying this, as if they were tied. But they're not.

[LisaL]

7. The lead doesn't matter if he doesn't get enough for the nomination.

Because if he doesn't get enough, it goes to the convention. Where at least in theory anyone can be nominated.

[anigbrowl]

9. But in practise, it will be him. I am pretty sure he'll have 2024 before then

All your arguments depend on ignoring that Hillary has to convince far more SDs that she's the future nominee than Barack does. She needs more than twice as many delegates to get there as he does right now.

[berni_mccoy]

10. He will and she can't stop him. She can't, no matter what happens. It's that simple.

[berni_mccoy]

8. I suppose you think McGovern, one of her first Endorsements, is wrong in switching

He, like many others, see the reality of her situation.