Let's not pretend Obama has clinched anything

[Bill McBlueState]

It's premature to start talking about "presumptive nominees" and "mathematical elimination." Because of the superdelegates, nobody will be mathematically eliminated until a vote at the convention gives one candidate a majority. (But I emphasize that a smart politician would see the big picture and quit before being mathematically eliminated.) The math argument should go like this:

1. Obama already has a significant lead in pledged delegates.
2. Under any plausible scenario for the remaining primaries (including Florida and Michigan) Obama will still have a lead in pledged delegates after the primary season is over.
3. Thus, X% of the superdelegates will need to vote for Clinton in order for her to win.

Even if you put in numbers that give Clinton the extreme benefit of the doubt, X ends up being something huge, like 70%.

Instead of claiming victory, Obama supporters should emphasize the extreme extent to which the SDs would have to overturn primary and caucus voters to give Clinton the nomination. We're not talking about a tepid majority of the superdelgates, we're talking about a massive, unlikely swing to her side.

[Tarc]

1. Asking for calmness and rationality from Obama supporters?

Good luck.

[book_worm]

6. and yet who is the first snarky person to post? a Hillary supporter.

[Umbram]

9. And one wonders what gets them so fired up...

maybe it's the trolls?

[seabeyond]

14. op talks about massive unlikely swing and you go after obama sup for lack of reality

"We're not talking about a tepid majority of the superdelgates, we're talking about a massive, unlikely swing to her side."


really. that is kinda sorta funny

[SoonerPride]

2. No, it is time to say it loudly. IT IS OVER.

Time for Hillary to bow to reality and stop tilting at windmills.

[Bill McBlueState]

3. As much as some of us want to believe that,

It's not really over until Hillary decides it's over. Obama's all-but-clinching of the pledged delegates isn't convincing her of anything, so we can't count on the math to persuade her.

I think it would make more sense to encourage the remaining unpledged SDs to take a long, realistic look at the situation and consider whether going public in support of Obama could bring about a quicker end.

[SoonerPride]

5. I think at least 100 SDs come out this week.

Nail in coffin time.

[casus belli]

4. A massive, unlikely swing is correct.

But why would it be in Obama and his supporters interest to not claim victory when Clinton and her surrogates are so anxious to do exactly that themselves. If we look at the 2000 GE, one of the pivotal moments came when George Bush claimed victory for himself long before the issue of FL had been resolved. It created a perception of inevitability for him that resonated in the media and had a drastic effect on what was to be a close race.

I don't think Obama or his supporters can afford not to approach this as having won, otherwise they lend validity to Clinton's own claims of victory which are clearly intended to sway public opinion of her and her chances.

[babylonsister]

7. He clinched it awhile ago; she just won't go away. Consider this:

had their roles been reversed, do you honestly think Obama would still be in the picture? The Clinton name has given her a pass; now that pass is moot.
Please explain how under any scenario under the sun she can win. Why won't she maintain some dignity and bow out gracefully?

No matter; watch the SD count in Obama's favor go through the roof in the next few days. Then she'll have no choice.

[TragedyandHope]

8. We are already moving on to work towards reconciliation and unity

The war is over.

[Bake]

13. Oh yeah, there's a LOT of that going on here today ...

:sarcasm:

Let's see, I've seen countlesss "get over it," "fuck 'em" posts this morning. If that's what you call reconciliation, just WOW.

Bake

[TragedyandHope]

15. Well, some posts are louder than others

Some stick out more than others. But look around and you'll see many posts of reconciliation and unity from both sides.

It takes a will and determination to move on. It won't be so easy for some, but I am hopeful we will come together to challenge McCain.

[DefenseLawyer]

10. Remain calm! All is well!

All is welllllllll!

[krawhitham]

11. Denial Is Not Just a River in Egypt

[bowens43]

12. It's over. Period.

The hillary supporters who claim that it isn't are living in a fantasy wortld. They are harming the party and our chances in the GE.

[ORDem]

16. You're making a distinction without a difference. This sort of convoluted

stuff is not going to work on anyone.

:dem: