New Zogby tracking. NC Obama 48, Clinton 40. Ind Obama 44, Clinton 42

[jezebel]

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/4/223612/2319/373/509146
Both candidates stumped for votes in Indiana Sunday, as the state’s voters prepare to cast ballots in Tuesday’s elections. Actually, early voting has been underway in both states for awhile (longer in North Carolina than in Indiana), and this latest Zogby polling shows one-quarter of North Carolina voters – 26% – have already voted, and 13% in Indiana have already cast ballots.

While Obama holds a small edge in Indiana, Clinton appears to hold at least a small advantage among those who are yet undecided. Among those undecided Indiana voters who said they were leaning toward one candidate or the other, Clinton held an edge. It also remains unclear what impact, if any, the new Indiana requirement that voters show identification before casting ballots will have on the contest.

More evidence of turmoil in Indiana: among those Hoosier voters who said they have changed their support in the last two weeks, one-third of them – 33% - said the recent statements of Barack Obama’s former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, made them less likely to support him.


In North Carolina, Obama enjoys solid leads in the cities of Greensboro, Charlotte, and the "research triangle" area of Raleigh-Durham," which contain large numbers of younger voters. He has done well across the country among voters in urban settings, while Clinton has done well among older and rural Democratic voters. Obama leads among the key demographic of voters age 35-54 by a 58% to 31% margin – which is dramatically different than how that age of voter acted in Pennsylvania two weeks ago. There, Clinton won among those voters. It is also important to note that Obama has made real inroads among voters age 55-69, where Clinton wins 44% and Obama wins 43% - a statistical tie.

Clinton leads among white voters in North Carolina, 55% to 34%, while Obama leads among African American voters, 77% to 10%.

In Indiana, Clinton leads among white voters, 46% to 39%, with 15% left unsure or supporting someone else. African Americans in the Hoosier state, which make up about 11% of the Democratic primary electorate, heavily favor Obama. Obama leads in Indianapolis by a 54% to 33% margin, while Clinton leads by a similar margin across southern Indiana. Across the northern tier of the state, including Gary in the west, South Bend, Elkhart, and Fort Wayne in the east, the pair are tied at 42% each.

[jefferson_dem]

1. Basically, unchanged since yesterday. Hillary +1 in NC, Obama and Hillary +1 in IN.

n/t

[speedoo]

30. Right. And that's good news for Obama.

Since it supports yesterdays poll which showed a good plus bump for Obama in both states.

[Shine]

2. If Obama manages to squeak out a win in IN and gets NC, too, will HC concede?

:shrug:

[Triana]

29. I seriously doubt it. n/t

[Shine]

52. yeah, me too.

I think she's gonna drag this out as long and as painfully as she can. :(

[dansolo]

62. But if he does win both, be prepared to see a flood of superdelegates

[book_worm]

3. Thanks! Now I don't have to stay up until Midnight

NC will go Obama by double digits. O leads C among black voters 77-10, I think he will get at least 90% and that will give him another 2-3 points.

I think in Indiana if O can get 40% of the white vote and 90% plus of black vote he can narrowly win.

We'll know in 48-hours!

[jackson_dem]

9. You're allocating 100% of black undecideds in NC to Obama

If they were undecided for weeks what will cause them to break 90-100% for Obama at the last minute?

[book_worm]

11. Okay I'll give her a couple of points--88-12

[book_worm]

14. Here is a key finding among age groups in Indiana

Among voters age 55-64, Clinton leads by a 43% to 41% edge, which represents progress for Obama, who does much better among younger voters. Among those voters age 35-54, he leads by a 47% to 37% margin, also holding similar edges among voters under age 35.


The crucial 35-54 age group is favoring Obama in both Indiana and NC, where they favored Hillary in Ohio and PA. They are the largest voting bloc. Which candidate wins this group in Indiana, I believe will win the primary.

[jackson_dem]

22. Obama supporters sure love Zogby!

You do realize that everyone else has Clinton up 7, 7, 5, 10, and 8 in IN don't you? http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/in/indiana_democratic_primary-639.html#polls In NC he is in sync with everyone else, aside from the outlier where he had Obama up 16.

[book_worm]

26. Yes, but you're seeing that most of those polls came before the Wright

issue was dealt with and we are now seeing in national polls that Obama is gaining ground and I think state polls will begin to reflect his comeback since Tuesday. Tomorrow several new polls will be out the day before the primary and I think most of them will show Obama gaining ground in Indiana and holding a lead in NC.

[jackson_dem]

36. But that assumes pastorgate II hurt him in the first place in IN

He slipped only a couple of points there. What hurt him in IN was losing PA. In NC you may be right.

[Zachstar]

50. The PA primary is in the past. The unstable part was pastorgate II

And yikes it was unstable because Wright just threw everything out there and Obama had to deal with it again.

This time tho he dropped the friendly crap and shut down the issue once and for all. That part is taking time to sink in.

The biggest effect of the dealing with Pastorgate tho I think is going to be in West Virginia and Kentucky where lots of issues kept him low in the polls. This boost could mean better times ahead but more polls need to come out.

Also what may be having an effect is Obama's response to the gas tax. Hearing that that may save under 50 dollars under Clinton's idea for the summer is likely not doing her favors with the voters.

[jackson_dem]

16. That's an 85% allocation

And that is probably right on target. Why would people who were undecided for weeks go 85-90% for Obama at the last minute? Is there a special policy paper Obama mails to certain households on election day?

[MadBadger]

20. Easy, the number was never really 77-10. Its always been 85-90-10 for Obama.

[jackson_dem]

25. In every state?

The only explanation is a "reverse" Bradley Effect http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect . This implies these voters feel some guilt over voting for Obama and so they tell pollsters they are "undecided".

[MadBadger]

27. I dont know how to explain it, but always seems to end up with 90 percent of the black vote.

[jackson_dem]

45. It is just a coincidence in every state 85-90% of black "undecideds" go to Obama

[dchill]

19. 90-10.

[Bullet1987]

4. How do they have Obama winning in IN...but only ahead by 8 in NC?

[book_worm]

24. "only 8"? In the end it will be 12-15 for Obama in NC, I believe.

[Iceburg]

57. He was up 23 points 4 weeks ago in NC.

[my3boyz]

61. And? Hillary was up 20+ pts in PA two weeks before the voted. nt

[Zachstar]

53. Yes I think he is doing a bit better than that in NC

Tho it will be better if polls reflected that. My guess he is past 10 likely closer to 15 tho that is not assured.

[Tribetime]

5. Come on Zogby be right this time

[Zachstar]

56. On this poll yes that would be great!

[malik flavors]

6. Yea, if this is today's results it's pretty much the same as yesterdays.

If Zogby is actualy right with these polls they're going to become the most trusted of the bunch, but I'm not so sure that he'll nail it like he did PA again.

[jefferson_dem]

7. Zogby has Obama up among AAs - 77% to 10% in NC. 13% undecided AAs at this stage is too high.

He should pad his lead right there come election day.

[jackson_dem]

12. Has Clinton polled better with blacks in a single state than she performed in the actual vote?

I can't think of one.

Before someone repeats a classic fairy tale, she beat the other white candidate 19-2 among SC blacks. She got more black support in SC than she did in Iowa (16%).

[book_worm]

21. I also think turnout among AA will be larger than the 33% pollsters are saying

I think it can be as high as 40%, but whatever it will be high.

[jackson_dem]

35. Based on what? Has that happened in other states?

[kmsarvis]

47. 40% of registered democrats in NC are African- American

[jackson_dem]

51. Ah

How about AA turnout versus registration? AA's are 37% of the population in MS. We can then estimate that they are 65-70% of registered Dems in MS. However in the MS primary the AA vote outnumbered whites only 50-48.

[kmsarvis]

55. Mississippi and N.C. are two very different places........

I live in N.C. and have followed many elections. AA turnout is usually in the mid 30%s.(for dem. primaries) As of december 2007 40% of NCs registered dems were African American .This was before Obama became the front runner. We have had thoasands of newly registered dems since then.........Sorry Jackson, African Americans turnout in NC.

[meow mix]

8. K&R please let this end tue

:hangover:

[adoraz]

10. IN= 14% undecided

sadly, I expect most of them will go for Hillary.

[book_worm]

15. according to Zogby she does have a slight lead among undecideds in Indiana

[MadBadger]

17. Does he give a number?

[book_worm]

No the article didn't mention just that she has a "slight lead" among undecideds

better than a big lead. I don't think it will be a big swing to Hillary in the end like it was in PA.

[MadBadger]

34. Looking at the other polls, Id say he loses by ten. Looking at this one, he loses by 4.

[Zachstar]

40. Losing by 4 is fine. It will mean clinton only picks up a few delegates when she needed many to lead

He got Clinton firewall to 9 so 4 seems likely or even a win.

[jezebel]

49. that's what I think too. Give her 10 of the undecided and him 4, it's C 52 O 48. I'll take it. nt

[Quixote1818]

28. If she gets 8 and he gets 6% then it will lock up around 50%

Even if she barely winds by one or two percent, she won't make up hardly any round on delegates and Obama will pull ahead with a 8 or 10 point win in NC. In short, Obama will win the day by taking more delegates.

[Zachstar]

33. Well lets hope he wins Indiana as well.

If not this is likely going till June because Clinton will want the states of West Virginia and Kentucky. Leading up to Puerto Rico.

[dchill]

13. I don't trust Zogby...

but that would be all right. ;)

[Zachstar]

18. He needs to really try to get Indiana a win above 5 and NC really needs to back over 10

But good news is good news and Ill accept a win in both states by small margins.

Lets hope for the best!

[MadBadger]

23. Not true at all

All he really NEEDS is a win in NC. Id like to see a double digit win in NC. But to really put the nail in the coffin, he just needs to beat her in NC and beat her by 1 vote in Indiana.

[Zachstar]

31. For math yes. But only a good double win is going to mean Clinton will exit.

Otherwise she will be urged to go on and see what she can get luck with in upcoming contests.

If it is just a small vote win in Indiana Clinton will likely say there is still a race and keep going on. Hoping to recover with a win in West Virginia.

The good news is that is almost a week that Obama can Campaign with. And hopefully that means he can turn that state into a sub 10 point loss.

Then another week to campaign in Oregon and Kentucky were again I think if we work HARD his loss will be sub 10 with it wiped out with a win in Oregon.

[MadBadger]

32. If Obama wins both, no matter by how much, the supers will rush to him.

[Zachstar]

37. We thought the supers were going to rush him to the lead after Clinton diddnt seriously win PA

I hope you are right but many supers seem to be unable to jump off the fence.

[MadBadger]

41. If Obama had lost in PA by less than five, than they would have.

[Zachstar]

46. Hey lost by 9 and clinton picked up some delegates. What is the difference between 5 and 9

Yes under 5 and he could have won more delegates overall but was it not obvious enough when she diddnt get a blowout.

No what I am thinking here is we got supers moving on the fence but they still think Clinton could get lucky. Their choice but they are the ones that can virtually put an end to this destructive race.

[book_worm]

38. Yep, that would be the signal. I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

[jackson_dem]

39. If he wins both Hillary will drop out anyway. Thankfully she will win IN

[MadBadger]

42. I'm not sure she'd drop out

She can run up the score in West Virginia and Kentucky, hoping to gain a lot of popular votes, and maybe in PR as well. Though the supers wouldnt have any of that.

[Zachstar]

44. I am not sure she can catch up in popular vote without some serious wins in most upcoming states.

I think it more is along the lines of her wanting to test her luck at this point. Tho the only way she would do that is if she feels her seat in congress is pretty damn safe.

[Zachstar]

43. Just a side question at what point in upcoming states do you think she may drop out?

My guess it she goes till perhaps June 10 or so? Just to test her luck?

Tho it does seem she may say Enough is Enough before then. Your thoughts?

[book_worm]

48. If she wins Indiana she stays in until the end of the primary schedule

she will win West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico. Obama will win Oregon, Montana and South Dakota. He will get a majority of pledged delegates with Oregon and I think then many SD would then endorse him. But at the end of primary season many SD will definitely move to close this thing before the convention.

[Zachstar]

54. Sounds about right. Tho I hope we will work so that her wins are under 10 in those states.

[psychopomp]

58. If Sen. Clinton loses in both states her campaign will be finished

whether she drops out or not. :toast:

[Zachstar]

59. She has been effectively finished for months.

But remember the Clinton machine is the biggest in politics. Even a double win may see her remain in the race and that is why we need to work HARD for Obama victory!

[mtnester]

60. Of course Zogby has been right on the money

heck of a job

[malik flavors]

63. We'll see if Zogby is a trustworthy poll again tonight. I think Indiana's going to be a little off.

Hopefully he got N.C. about right.