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SLATE: Pundits, cut the fairy tales. Obama has the nomination.

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RainDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:37 PM
Original message
SLATE: Pundits, cut the fairy tales. Obama has the nomination.
http://www.slate.com/id/2190556/

Go ahead and say, if you like, that Hillary Clinton retains a serious chance of winning the Democratic nomination. If you say this, however, you must describe a set of circumstances whereby this could happen. Try not to make it sound like a fairy tale.

Tim Noah, political correspondent for Slate Magazine, notes that it is mathematically impossible for Hillary to win via caucus/primary votes. Obama could possibly win, but he would need such huge percentages (71%) the probability of this is nil. This means that the super delegates will be making the tie-breaking votes.

Noah continues:

How do superdelegates choose the nominee? Answer: They tend to follow the popular will. That's why superdelegates gravitated to Clinton when polls showed she looked like a sure thing, and then to Obama when he started outpolling her. That's why more than one-third of the superdelegates remain uncommitted now. Believe me, it isn't because they haven't been paying attention, and (except for a few head cases) it isn't because, after 23 Democratic debates, they still don't know which candidate tickles their fancy. It's because they're reluctant to be out of step with the popular will as expressed through all the primaries and caucuses.

...This is an important point, so I'm going to repeat it. The longer a superdelegate waits to choose, the likelier he'll choose whoever the primaries and caucuses chose.

...According to Slate's delegate calculator, Clinton needs to win, on average, 70 percent of the vote in every remaining contest in order to surpass Obama on pledged delegates. Remember when I said there was no way Obama would capture 71 percent? There's no way Clinton's going to capture 70 percent, either.


Noah goes on to create a variety of scenarios in which super delegates might be persuaded that, even tho she is behind, she is "close enough" to overrule the primary/caucus votes. The only situation in which she can try to make such a claim is if MI is included... and Obama WASN'T EVEN ON THE BALLOT THERE. However, if you give the "not-Clinton" votes to him, he still maintains a lead over Clinton among primary votes.

The only way Clinton could win, Noah notes, is if she goes totally Lee Atwater. In that case, she will still lose because she will disgust so many people they won't vote for her. And she'd lose her senate seat.

so, pleeeease, Hillary people. Please read this with the knowledge that we need to begin to build unity. People on both sides have acted like jackasses... me included, unfortunately. We've invested a lot of emotion in one or the other candidate, so it's understandable that people in an internet environment can lose their cool.

OBAMA PEOPLE - YOU, ESPECIALLY, should read this with a view that we need to build unity. Time to stop giving out or rising to bait.

Winners do not need to do that sort of thing. If you are an Obama supporter, yet you continue to engage in personal feuds, who are you really all about on this board? If you post a factual thread and you have haters, put them on ignore. Alert if they try to call out with personal slurs. And most importantly, DON'T CREATE THOSE THREADS YOURSELF.

It is time to stop the haters on both sides. It is time to make apologies and work on the November election. I'm sorry if your candidate is not going to be on the ballot. I would be devastated myself. However, as I've noted before, I have voted "for the team" for nearly my entire voting life. It's not always fun, but the options are infinitely worse. We have lived through an amazing, historic moment and we can make history for our children and grandchildren to talk about. The smashing of the Republican Party.

As was also noted here this week, the Republicans strategy at this time is to divide the democrats and suppress the vote. Don't be KKKKarl Rove's useful idiot. Don't be McCain's tool.

when I was at the Wed. Obama rally, the campaign rightly said that you are representing for Obama, even if you are not part of the actual campaign, when you speak in support of him. So do the right thing. Dust the dirt off your shoulders. That's what you've got to do.

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bluestateguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:42 PM
Response to Original message
1. Pundits: "But I want to keep being on TV to listen to myself talk! Waaaaahhh!!"
"I want to make the rounds on the TV gasbag shows with my pop political science analysis, using words like 'narrative' and phrases like 'thrown under the bus.'"
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RainDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:44 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. yeah, heaven forbid they'd have to leave their plush, hairy seats
and engage in actual representation of facts.
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Austinitis Donating Member (726 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 06:25 PM
Response to Reply #1
23. HOW CLINTON CAN WIN IT
Edited on Sat May-03-08 06:27 PM by Austinitis
The Fix (from the Washington Post) already gave one possible rout to a Hillary nomination http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/04/how_clinton_can_do_it.html">here. Other pundits have described other possible routs for Hillary.
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RainDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 06:46 PM
Response to Reply #23
29. I responded, point by point, to your article the first time you posted this.
Edited on Sat May-03-08 06:47 PM by RainDog
did you read it? please do. let me know how this scenario is remotely possible at this point.

on edit: but I'll simply post it here, too.

here's why:

1 - the guy wrote it coming off of Penn. Hillary raised a lot of money after that win, but, the article notes, she needs to get A LOT more. A LOT. AND while she is getting A LOT, Obama needs to not outspend her. IIFC, her campaign wasn't flush before PN, so this amorphous "a lot of money," slides into fairy tale jargon.

would you mind doing me a favor and finding out how much money each of them has raised over the last week... and their totals? That would be useful to put this "a lot of money" in perspective.

2. the guy said that Evan Bayh was "gold" in IN... well, I live in IN at this time, and he's not exactly gold. More importantly, this week Baron Hill, IN rep. and Joe Andrews, former Clinton pledge (which puts her down in her previous count) and important Indiana pol, gave their support to Obama. Joe wrote a letter encouraging all supers to follow his lead in support of Obama. Lee Hamilton, another heavyweight in the state, has also pledged his vote for Obama. Bayh wanted to be the vp on Hillary's ticket. He urged other pols in the state to remain uncommitted. Within days Hill and Andrews pledged. So much for that gold.

3. The article notes that THE CORE to Hillary winning the primary is to win the primary popular vote. She is behind in this vote and, as noted above, there is NO WAY she can get 70% of democrats to vote for her in the remaining primaries. She trails by approx. half a million votes. EVEN IF she were to finagle FL onto the ballot, she would STILL need to gain 40% more votes than Obama... just to squeak.

Since people in Florida didn't even go to the polls knowing their votes were not going to count, it is hardly fair to claim Hillary deserves to claim Florida as a "victory." If Florida wants to seat delegates, let them have a real primary, and let the FL Democratic Committee pay for it since they're the ones that decided to make themselves irrelevant. If Clinton does try to fight for these FL delegates, she will have formidable opposition from more than half the democratic voters who cast their votes for Obama. Clinton supporters can hardly cry foul about this since they are the ones who are trying to alter the rules that the DNC set forth.

4. Super Delegates - from your article-

There is much chatter in political circles that Obama has a cache of super delegates already committed to him that his campaign will unveil in the next two weeks. Before The Fix was even up this morning, Obama had received the endorsement of Oklahoma Gov. Brad Henry; later in the day a Nebraska super delegate went for him. Clinton has to hope that the rumors of Obama's super delegate stash are overstated; if Obama is able to roll out a few endorsements every day or two between now and June 3, it will create the impression that he is the de facto nominee.

This is, in fact, what has happened. Every day, another delegate pledges for Obama. This is why the former chairs who support Clinton (they're split 5/5 with one uncommitted, last time I saw) put out the plea for supers to put Hillary into the nomination over the wishes of the popular/caucus votes. They also did this because of Andrews' statement. Even the former chairs are not behind Hillary, even tho her husband was the president at one point.

5. The guy who wrote the article noted that the economy is an issue that can help Clinton. However, this weekend, IN papers will run the story of Bayh's anger at Clinton over NAFTA closings. People in Indiana who work in factory jobs, etc. have been devastated by the "NAFTA Highway." They know when things occurred because that was when they lost their jobs. So, it's hard for Clinton to claim the upper hand on economic issues in Indiana, too.

If you have something factual to present as a rebuttal, please post it here. I think it would be good to look at these various arguments and see how valid they are.

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RainDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 08:47 PM
Response to Reply #29
38. ...
** crickets chirp **

guess there is no rebuttal.
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Zhade Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 09:48 PM
Response to Reply #38
47. Facts that counter clinton supporters' wishful thinking are rarely received with enthusiasm.
They're rarely acknowledged, even.

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RainDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 09:52 PM
Response to Reply #38
81. **chirp** **chirp**
Hillary has rolled out the idea of a "nuclear option," which, I suppose, is a sign of how desperate her campaign actually is in the face of the fact that she cannot win unless she tries to overturn the will of primary/caucus voters.

so much for unity.
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Gore1FL Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 08:54 PM
Response to Reply #23
39. But so far, none of it has happened
According to the article she needs:

Money, Money, Money

No money,
Strike one

The Element of Surprise

No surprises have happened.
It is unlikely any will (or they wouldn't be called surprises

Foul Ball: Strike 2.

Florida (Finally)

Not gonna happen
Strike 3

Next at bat:

Stumble Into Doubt

Tried several times. Hurt Obama, Hurt Party, but didn;t work

Strike One

Superdelegates Stay Put

Already not happening

Strike 2

Policy First

Only policy presented recently was bad idea stolen from McCain.
Everything else is attack...

No swing: Strike 3


* Indiana in Hand

She needs to win by 20%-30% Not going to happen.

Long fly, caught at warning track.

End of inning: No runs. no hits.

But what is ulitmately wrong with the article as it doesn;t explain how those things (that she has not and will not accomplish) translates to a delegate lead.
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cojoel Donating Member (125 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 09:41 PM
Response to Reply #39
44. sounds like something my brother would write
Edited on Sat May-03-08 09:42 PM by cojoel
Oh wait, you are my brother. Never mind. ;-)
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RainDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 03:45 PM
Response to Reply #39
72. ...
more

** crickets chirp **

*** chirp ***






*chirp*
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Ken Burch Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 12:02 AM
Response to Reply #23
56. For your intended purposes, you should've spelled it "routes",
What a lot of us are concerned about is that HRC's current ROUTE will lead us all to a ROUT.
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LVjinx Donating Member (711 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 09:32 PM
Response to Reply #1
43. OMG... Everybody in the world KNOWS neither of them can win via primary/caucus votes!
Why waste more time writing about it?
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RainDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 08:41 AM
Response to Reply #43
62. The article was not just about caucus votes
and why waste time? because Hillary voters on this site keep insisting that there is a way she could win beyond a super delegate coup, that's why.

And when you look at the denial from her supporters here... that's why.
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washingdem Donating Member (467 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:44 PM
Response to Original message
3. k&r
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speedoo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:48 PM
Response to Original message
4. K&R. Great post.
You make a great deal of sense, and best of all, you did not plead for a "Unity Ticket". (blech)
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RainDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 06:00 PM
Response to Reply #4
11. I do not think a unity ticket exists
it would be a major mistake and I do not believe it will happen. I could be wrong, but it wouldn't be consistent with the gist of this campaign.
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speedoo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 06:03 PM
Response to Reply #11
13. I agree completely.
And a unity ticket that includes Hillary is an oxymoron anyway.
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RainDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 06:06 PM
Response to Reply #13
17. no need to keep up with the disses and dozens
the only thing worse than a poor loser is a poor winner.

(that's your momma talking to you) :)
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druidity33 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 07:44 PM
Response to Reply #17
34. oxymoron
is not a bad word, and quite frankly it was used in the right context...

:shrug:

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RainDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 08:12 PM
Response to Reply #34
36. it wasn't the word. it was the Hillary barb
I totally agree with you, as far as it all goes. but I really do want to promote some healing. if I keep picking at a scab... that sort of thing.

:hug:
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Zhade Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 09:51 PM
Response to Reply #36
48. Why do you see it as a barb? Haven't her actions already shown her narcissism?
NT!

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RainDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 12:13 PM
Response to Reply #48
68. Yes. I see that
And, tho I am trying as hard as I can to be magnanimous, the longer Hillary stays in the race, the more I grow to despise her. I have moved from dislike to disgust. I try not to let that creep into my attitude toward her supporters, but that's not easy sometimes.

so my talk about not rising to the bait is as much about me as anyone else. but we can help each other, hopefully, by sanely addressing issues rather than letting our heads explode upon seeing this or that inanity.

the fact is this: If Hillary take the nomination by super delegate coup, all gloves are off. Noah notes this fact in his article. here's a great analysis of the situation at this time.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5807428&mesg_id=5807863

and this one

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5807428&mesg_id=5808873

That is the reality of the continued Clinton campaign.
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druidity33 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 06:23 AM
Response to Reply #36
60. I fail to see
how a simple, declarative, and pretty accurate statement that doesn't use harsh words is considered a barb or diss.

Speedo says:

"And a unity ticket that includes Hillary is an oxymoron anyway."

I personally (and i know a lot of others) who feel VERY STRONGLY that the candidacy of HRC would be extraordinarily DIVISIVE. To me, UNITY does not = Divisiveness. I'd even be inclined to say you could insert BHO's name where HRC's name is and it would also be a somewhat accurate statement. Would you have felt so strongly if Speedo had said:

"And a unity ticket that includes Hillary would be pretty ironic."

...because that's essentially what is being said.


I'll say it again, Oxymoron is not a BAD word... it's just a word like other words that describes some things well.

:shrug:

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RainDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 09:16 AM
Response to Reply #34
64. honestly, I don't have an argument with you
my whole response was about trying to not call out Hillary supporters. but it's not a big deal. maybe an over-reaction on my part because I really would like to scream at some of her supporters on this site, now that I've spent a few days in gd-p.

it's hard not to hate when someone is screaming nonsense in your face that, imo, hurts this entire nation, not just a nominee. (I'm not talking about you in this sentence, just to clarify.)

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druidity33 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 05:54 PM
Response to Reply #64
79. no worries
i'm a stickler for words and if someone claims they're being used wrong when they're not, it gets my goat. Sorry if i was being high handed...

:)

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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 07:53 PM
Response to Reply #13
35. Oxymoron..well, there
ya go.
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babylonsister Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:49 PM
Response to Original message
5. Kick and rec'd with thanks! nt
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RainDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:54 PM
Response to Reply #5
8. thank YOU, babylonsister, for pointing to the article
His isn't the first I've read that has broken down numbers in this way. However, I'm glad to see that his is also calling out the "pundits." They are working for the republicans, not necessarily in fact, but in spirit, to continue to lead people on with the tale that the race is still open. that's sloppy journalism, at best.
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1776Forever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:52 PM
Response to Original message
6. Thanks for the post - Love the title - Fairy Tale LOL - Right!
:headbang:
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RainDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 06:05 PM
Response to Reply #6
16. but it's still important to get out the vote
b/c super delegates will pay attention to these numbers, and can put an end to all of this sooner rather than later and spare us all some trying times.
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Shae Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:52 PM
Response to Original message
7. Excellent post RainDog . . .
I've never seen Democrats at such odds with each other, but we need every voter we have to win against McCain in November.
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:59 PM
Response to Original message
9. Last week I was watching the Situation Room and they were all talking on and on
about what Hillary had to do to win and it was all very inane. Then Blitzer asked Jack Cafferty what he thought and then he unloaded on them and said it was absolutely stupid to have the conversation that she couldn't win and that eveyone who has looked at the numbers knew it.

Blitzer and the others came back with the 'yeah but the Clinton campaign' says this bull shit and Cafferty took them all apart.

I was surprised that he had the numbers down pat, pledged delegates 138 and 290 for the nomination. On May 20th he will win the pledged delegates and the Pelosi followers are all going to pile on.

And then he said any Clinton formula is based on the premise that the Democratic Party is going to abandon the African American community and that is not going to happen.

The others were all left speechless as he had handed them and all their idle chit chat completely naked.


It was really hilarious. His written columns are more reserved but still get to the point http://caffertyfile.blogs.cnn.com/2008/04/24/is-clinton-deluding-herself/
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RainDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 06:02 PM
Response to Reply #9
12. Cafferty is the only reason to watch CNN
he consistently calls b.s. when he sees it. unfortunately, he is one voice. which is why I no longer watch CNN or any other tv "news." they've simply lost all credibility since 2000.
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OnceUponTimeOnTheNet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 06:21 PM
Response to Reply #9
21. Do you have a video link for this, or the day is was on?
I just Love Jack.
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 06:23 PM
Response to Reply #21
22. no link it was just one of those times when they were obviously just trying to talk
until the next commercial break - Jeffery Tobin was pretty good too
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OnceUponTimeOnTheNet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 06:51 PM
Response to Reply #22
30. Found this on Youtube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lc4R7lVWGt0
Put up by someone that does not like Jack, But at least I got to see it. It was him, Tony Snow, Wolf, and some Lady, added April 29th.

The CNN website only has video of Jack up to April 21st. It used to be much more recent than that before. Buggers.
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RainDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 08:24 PM
Response to Reply #30
37. thanks for the link
I watched the clip and the female commentator... embarrasses me as a female. Yes, Jack, Obama HAS won the nomination, but it's winning the "psychological vote" that matters, too. :wtf:

A big primary fight with no clear primary winner and it's about the "psychological vote?" Snow did make the point that, at this point, it is the super delegates who will decide the nominee, or break the tie.

surely to god they're not so stupid that they would choose Lee Atwater politics. in that case, I'd love to be the one to supply the pistols at 40 paces for the circular firing squad.
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tblue37 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 09:59 PM
Response to Reply #30
52. Did you see the clip about Republicans voting for
Edited on Sat May-03-08 09:59 PM by tblue37
Hillary because they believe she can be beat in the GE?

Cafferty explains that once McCaim nailed the Republican priamry and freed up the Republicans to cross over, they started doing so in huge numbers and voting for Clinton. Unlike the ones who were voting for Obama earlier because they liked him, the new crossover Republican voters openly admitted they were follwoing the tactic laid out by Limbaugh and Ingraham to keep the bitter fight going to divide the Democrats and bloody Obama for the GE.

Here is a link to that clip:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vIkqTWRyJw0&feature=related
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RainDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 09:21 AM
Response to Reply #52
65. which also invalidates any exit poll
about the "psychological vote."

the point is that after the nominee is decided, people will get behind that person, unless he or she has engaged in such nasty tactics (as Noah's article also acknowledges) that they alienate the democratic base and any actual crossover voters.

Bayh wants to be vp so badly, just like Hillary wants to be prez, they both seem to be willing to take down the party to do so.
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democracy1st Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 06:00 PM
Response to Original message
10. K & R
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Cali_Democrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 06:05 PM
Response to Original message
14. ...
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RainDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 06:08 PM
Response to Reply #14
18. You got the Slate graphic
I wondered about posting it, but decided I'd use up my quote allotment for Noah's words.
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Cali_Democrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 06:15 PM
Response to Reply #18
20. If you click it you an even bigger one!!!!
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futureliveshere Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 06:05 PM
Response to Original message
15. Glad you posted this RD. Hope more people read and understand.. K&R
that this race is over. We have a nominee and thats Barack Obama.
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Austinitis Donating Member (726 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 06:10 PM
Response to Original message
19. HOW CLINTON CAN WIN IT
Edited on Sat May-03-08 06:26 PM by Austinitis
The Fix (from the Washington Post) already gave one possible rout to a Hillary nomination http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/04/how_clinton_can_do_it.html">here. Other pundits have described other possible routs for Hillary.
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RainDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 06:38 PM
Response to Reply #19
26. This scenario is not plausible
here's why:

1 - the guy wrote it coming off of Penn. Hillary raised a lot of money after that win, but, the article notes, she needs to get A LOT more. A LOT. AND while she is getting A LOT, Obama needs to not outspend her. IIFC, her campaign wasn't flush before PN, so this amorphous "a lot of money," slides into fairy tale jargon.

would you mind doing me a favor and finding out how much money each of them has raised over the last week... and their totals? That would be useful to put this "a lot of money" in perspective.

2. the guy said that Evan Bayh was "gold" in IN... well, I live in IN at this time, and he's not exactly gold. More importantly, this week Baron Hill, IN rep. and Joe Andrews, former Clinton pledge (which puts her down in her previous count) and important Indiana pol, gave their support to Obama. Joe wrote a letter encouraging all supers to follow his lead in support of Obama. Lee Hamilton, another heavyweight in the state, has also pledged his vote for Obama. Bayh wanted to be the vp on Hillary's ticket. He urged other pols in the state to remain uncommitted. Within days Hill and Andrews pledged. So much for that gold.

3. The article notes that THE CORE to Hillary winning the primary is to win the primary popular vote. She is behind in this vote and, as noted above, there is NO WAY she can get 70% of democrats to vote for her in the remaining primaries. She trails by approx. half a million votes. EVEN IF she were to finagle FL onto the ballot, she would STILL need to gain 40% more votes than Obama... just to squeak.

Since people in Florida didn't even go to the polls knowing their votes were not going to count, it is hardly fair to claim Hillary deserves to claim Florida as a "victory." If Florida wants to seat delegates, let them have a real primary, and let the FL Democratic Committee pay for it since they're the ones that decided to make themselves irrelevant. If Clinton does try to fight for these FL delegates, she will have formidable opposition from more than half the democratic voters who cast their votes for Obama. Clinton supporters can hardly cry foul about this since they are the ones who are trying to alter the rules that the DNC set forth.

4. Super Delegates - from your article-

There is much chatter in political circles that Obama has a cache of super delegates already committed to him that his campaign will unveil in the next two weeks. Before The Fix was even up this morning, Obama had received the endorsement of Oklahoma Gov. Brad Henry; later in the day a Nebraska super delegate went for him. Clinton has to hope that the rumors of Obama's super delegate stash are overstated; if Obama is able to roll out a few endorsements every day or two between now and June 3, it will create the impression that he is the de facto nominee.

This is, in fact, what has happened. Every day, another delegate pledges for Obama. This is why the former chairs who support Clinton (they're split 5/5 with one uncommitted, last time I saw) put out the plea for supers to put Hillary into the nomination over the wishes of the popular/caucus votes. They also did this because of Andrews' statement. Even the former chairs are not behind Hillary, even tho her husband was the president at one point.

5. The guy who wrote the article noted that the economy is an issue that can help Clinton. However, this weekend, IN papers will run the story of Bayh's anger at Clinton over NAFTA closings. People in Indiana who work in factory jobs, etc. have been devastated by the "NAFTA Highway." They know when things occurred because that was when they lost their jobs. So, it's hard for Clinton to claim the upper hand on economic issues in Indiana, too.

If you have something factual to present as a rebuttal, please post it here. I think it would be good to look at these various arguments and see how valid they are.


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blm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 06:30 PM
Response to Original message
24. Media has known this since shortly after Super Tuesday - WHO are they working for?
The fascists who now need Dems divided for the general. Nice of Clintons to accomodate the need, eh?
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RainDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 06:45 PM
Response to Reply #24
28. time to get beyond the blame
the party is changing. but it's a fight all the way. no one wants to lose power once they have it and that's why the Clinton's have fought so hard to keep it.

now it's time to go forward.
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Zhade Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 09:53 PM
Response to Reply #28
49. I absolutely could NOT disagree more!
Edited on Sat May-03-08 09:54 PM by Zhade
Not looking at the blame is how b*s* and company are skating for their crimes regarding Iraq.

"Moving on" is the rallying cry of those afraid to examine why things are as bad as they are. No, causes MUST be known, not ignored.

Sorry, I think you're wrong to call for excusing those who are at fault by ignoring what they've done.

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4themind Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 06:37 PM
Response to Original message
25. yeah for obama supporters, don't say "If hillary is..
nominated then__insert bad thing here" Let's talk about what obama WILL do to beat McCain in the fally!
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RainDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 06:41 PM
Response to Reply #25
27. exactly
put our eyes on the prize of winning.
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Zhade Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 09:55 PM
Response to Reply #25
50. Now this I agree with, because she will not win the nomination.
NT!

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Major Hogwash Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 07:13 PM
Response to Original message
31. Great post.
I wonder how many people here agree with it.
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FrenchieCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 07:24 PM
Response to Original message
32. In a normal world, it is called "The Math".
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RainDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 07:43 PM
Response to Reply #32
33. This isn't the first thread like this I've posted
the other ones also had "the math." From other sources.

But no doubt Clinton supporters need time to go through a grieving process. If Obama were not the nominee, I certainly would. But it's also important for those Clinton supporters who put party above person to help their fellow supporters look at what the numbers are saying. A super delegate "coup" would not have a good outcome and I'm glad Dean is DNC chair because he, at least, understands why this would be the worst possible "solution." why win the nomination if it makes you lose the larger race?
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 09:17 PM
Response to Original message
40. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
Gore1FL Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 09:26 PM
Response to Reply #40
41. Then what is the non fairytaile roue for Hillary?
Be sure to include pledged delegate wins, and Super delegate commitments. Please also prove the rationale for the necessary upsets required in your scenario. Please be concrete with the rationale. For example, if she uses "popular vote," explain how she doesn't lose caucus states.

It's your claim. Please support it in a quantifiable and justifiable way.
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Guaranteed Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 09:28 PM
Response to Reply #40
42. That's nothing but a flat denial. Point to the reality!
What do you THINK is going to happen that will give Clinton MORE DELEGATES than Obama??
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Zhade Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 09:57 PM
Response to Reply #40
51. Keep dreaming, Obama will be the nominee when you wake up.
NT!

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Zhade Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 09:44 PM
Response to Original message
45. It's a good suggestion. But I will remind you that pointing out clinton's lies is not an attack.
Edited on Sat May-03-08 09:45 PM by Zhade
I do not WANT unity with liars or those who support them knowing full well the evidence of said lies.

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psychopomp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 10:19 PM
Response to Reply #45
53. Sen. Clinton admitted to knowingly telling something not true
aka she admitted to being a liar (regarding the "Bosnian Sniper Fire"). How soon some forget that fact. In fact, it is perfectly okay to some people.
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Nia Zuri Donating Member (576 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 09:46 PM
Response to Original message
46. The pundits are more like entertainers these days,
pretending like she still has a chance and that NC or Indiana really matter. They are all serious and full of themselves in their expertise, they really are quite comical if you think about it.
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RainDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 10:31 AM
Response to Reply #46
66. They aren't funny to me
because their lies make it harder for democrats to turn the focus to the race against McCain. All the while he sits there letting Hillary do his dirty work.
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klook Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 10:26 PM
Response to Original message
54. Sage advice.
There will be many who will be tempted to gloat in victory, when it's finally official. Now is the time to turn our focus to thrashing McCain in November.
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fascisthunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 10:31 PM
Response to Original message
55. Will Do RainDog
Good advice... good post.


:thumbsup:
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krkaufman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 02:40 AM
Response to Original message
57. Like many, this Slate writer asks Obama supporters to "disarm" ...
... while the Clinton campaign continues to wage their battle.
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RainDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 12:18 PM
Response to Reply #57
69. NOT AT ALL. in fact, this argues for volunteers to redouble
because the greater the number of primary votes, the harder it is for Clinton to try to make any reasonable claim for the super delegates to choose her over the primary/caucus voters.

We have one month of primaries to finish. The greater the turn out for Obama, the easier it is for the super delegates.

Obama has not engaged in the sort of nasty politics that Clinton has. As he said, he just dusts the dirt off his shoulders. he expects this. but that doesn't mean he gives it back. Noting that he is the winner is not a call to stop fighting for Obama supporters.

It IS a call for Hillary supporters to get real.
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TragedyandHope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 03:56 AM
Response to Original message
58. Yes we can STOP THE HATE!
:kick:

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VotesForWomen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 05:02 AM
Response to Original message
59. If O had the nomination already, this discussion wouldn't be taking place, now would it? nt
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RainDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 08:38 AM
Response to Reply #59
61. LOL
You really don't think this is a rational argument, do you? some people will argue with brick walls. we've seen this repeatedly. on this thread, even.

I will continue to try to not go the low route, but I will say Hillary supporters make that difficult.

The only way this is not over is if Hillary tries for an Bush2000 coup of super delegates. If she does that, she destroys the democratic party.
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totodeinhere Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 08:42 AM
Response to Reply #59
63. No, the point is that Obama has the nomination even though some pundits refuse to recognize it.
And that's bad for the party. We need to focus on November, but as long as Clinton hangs around even though she can't win then it makes it more difficult to unite around Obama and start the fall campaign.
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Scurrilous Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 10:39 AM
Response to Original message
67. K & R
:thumbsup:
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mhoran Donating Member (289 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 01:12 PM
Response to Original message
70. The most important two paragraphs, IMO
OBAMA PEOPLE - YOU, ESPECIALLY, should read this with a view that we need to build unity. Time to stop giving out or rising to bait.

Winners do not need to do that sort of thing. If you are an Obama supporter, yet you continue to engage in personal feuds, who are you really all about on this board? If you post a factual thread and you have haters, put them on ignore. Alert if they try to call out with personal slurs. And most importantly, DON'T CREATE THOSE THREADS YOURSELF.



I could not agree more. This thing is over. It's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when. And, depending on what happens in Indiana and North Carolina, the when could be quite soon.

It's time for us to try to focus on building unity and preparing for the GE.
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RainDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 02:38 PM
Response to Reply #70
71. thank you
it honestly hurts me to see the mean-spirited attacks against Clinton coming from Obama supporters. I KNOW it's hard not to get totally outraged at some of the stuff people post from the other camp, but to do the same does nothing but continue the status quo here.

But I'd like to be associated with people who look to MLK as an example of how to fight battles, not Karl Rove. King had the truth on his side, and no amount of denials could stop that.

The focus for Obama supporters at this time should be on contacting super delegates to request their support for Obama and to work to get out the remaining votes to put him so far over the top that even Clinton's most fanatical supporters must concede. Posts on this site that highlight Obama's electability are the ones that matter now.
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RainDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 03:51 PM
Response to Reply #71
73. Super Delegates
https://www.lobbydelegates.com/default.aspx

just to add - this site allows you to send a free email (or paid fax) to super delegates in your state. they have a form letter or you can compose your own.

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mhoran Donating Member (289 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 05:01 PM
Response to Reply #73
74. Thanks!
That's a really helpful link.

I put a new post up today asking people to pledge not to engage in the nastiness. If you don't mind taking a look at it and maybe recommending?
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RainDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 05:04 PM
Response to Reply #74
75. link to it here
so others can find it too!
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mhoran Donating Member (289 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 05:09 PM
Response to Reply #75
77. Here's the link
You should know in advance - I can never figure out how to post links correctly, but I'll try:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=108&topic_id=130299&mesg_id=130299
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mhoran Donating Member (289 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 05:10 PM
Response to Reply #77
78. What do you know!!!!
It worked!

I'll consider it a good omen!
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RainDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 07:23 PM
Response to Reply #78
80. I went there and gave you a kick
but now that the DLC is talking about a "nuclear option" to put Hillary in as nominee, I don't think I can honestly call for party unity because I cannot promise that myself if she takes the nomination by dirty tricks. Obviously I am not going to vote for McCain, but I can vote for other candidates without casting a presidential vote.
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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 05:05 PM
Response to Original message
76. K/R
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RainDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-05-08 03:31 PM
Response to Reply #76
82. Please follow the link at post #73 to contact super delegates
ask them to take the nuclear option off the table.

party unity does not mean kowtowing to the Clinton campaign. it is time for this to end.
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