Shouldn't Obama win Guam in a landslide ?

[SparkyMac]

Being born in Hawaii practically makes him a next door neighbor. I would expect him to defeat Clinton rather convincingly.

[my3boyz]

1. Neighbor? hahahahahaha Unlike HIllary he does not claim to be a native to every place that votes. nt

[rodeodance]

23. sev. obama fans have bragged about just that---how obama was born in H. and

this should make guam a cakewalk --paraphasing.

[FARAFIELD]

31. No YOU Said they said that, I never heard that

I felt that they would vote name recognition and the statehood thing. LOoks like (again) they are engaged and he will pull off at least a 5-4 delegate win, or maybe 6-3.

[MyNameGoesHere]

126. Yes he only counts

KS, Il, In, HI, Kenya, and Indonesia as where he is from or has family history. Why even today we got to see him at his great,great,great,great,great,great,great,great,great,great,great,great,great grandfathers house.

But still why is his grandmother sequestered? FREE OBAMA'S GRANDMA!

[Guaranteed]

2. ????

Yes, like Stephen Colbert said to their Congresswoman, "Aloha!"

[featherman]

3. Early projections had it 4-0 or 3-1 for Clinton - name recognition, etc

[Hoof Hearted]

27. From last year maybe! This isn't good news for him, and ya know it.

[featherman]

36. No from as recently as a month ago... supposed to be an easy Clinton win

But... whatever

[Hoof Hearted]

40. A month ago my ass.

[featherman]

84. Idiot... here's a link from March 30

"Hillary, as of today, is expected to win West Virginia, Kentucky, Guam and Puerto Rico."

http://cbslocalblogs.prospero.com/n/blogs/blog.aspx?webtag=kyw_backroom&entry=3

Google is your friend. Show me your links. I showed you mine. The Green Paper had Guam as a 73-27% Clinton win

[MADem]

63. He has three PAID organizers on the books there. Clinton has none. NT

[Forkboy]

69. So who's to blame for that?

:shrug:

[MADem]

78. There ya go again. Who's to BLAME???? Who said anyone was to BLAME?

Jesus, the claws are always out, aren't they?

I provided two facts.

You leap on me, snarling, about

blame.

:shrug: indeed....

[Forkboy]

92. Overreact much?

I asked a question. Where's the snarling? Where are the claws?

Try the decaf next time. Jesus. :eyes:

[MADem]

119. You do, apparently. Take your own advice, cover those teeth and retract those claws.

Sometimes a comment is what it is. I simply provided two facts.

You're the one overeager to attach "blame" ... for whatever reason.

[Forkboy]

121. Alrighty then.

:eyes:

[Window]

75. That's her fault. She should have sent Penn.

[MADem]

79. Who said anything about FAULT, either?

:eyes:

[Window]

125. Ummm, I did.

[MADem]

128. You, and you ALONE. nt

[nsd]

4. Guam is like 3000 miles from Hawaii. They're not neighbors. /nt

[damntexdem]

Well, it's just the same of those other neighboring states:

California and Maine.

;-)

[SparkyMac]

88. My mistake. I was thinking Hawaii was closer to Guam ...

... than to California. But I should think people in the islands would still feel closer to each other than to someone from the States.

Senator Obama would almost be their favorite son.

[spooky3]

112. Guam is actually closer to Indonesia; Obama spent time in I. in childhood, and many

residents of Guam have Indonesian heritage or cultural ties.

http://www.visitguam.org/about/?pg=history

Dem. voters in Indonesia preferred Obama:

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/05/indonesia.usvote/index.html

[Political Heretic]

5. just.....wow.

[FARAFIELD]

6. Actually he is catching up

Hillary was the favorite because she proposed raising the medical Cap there. So shes been pretty popular. But looks like it will be a 2-2 split in pledged and a 3-2 (or 4-1) split for OBAMA for the supers. And if its a 6-3 final (they have 9 delegate votes) that would be "rather convincing".

[Cha]

24. I know they're far away but don't the people on

Guam know hilary clinton lies and panders 'cause she's so fucking weak?

[Forkboy]

7. Geography much?

:crazy:

[my3boyz]

9. I know...first math...now geography...what did they learn in school?

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

21. Their ABD's?

:shrug:

[FrenchieCat]

8. And one would expect Obama to win the Hispanic vote because

both Blacks and Browns have shared a history of discrimination and prejudice.

Sometimes folks are not explicable, which is why there has been a lot of success at pitting groups that are more alike than different against each other.

Oh, and along with a pony, Hillary promised Guam statehood.

[leftofcool]

10. Neighbor?

3000 miles away?

[FARAFIELD]

11. By the way their are not neighbors.

Unless you mean in a "relative" way Like Earth is a Neighbor to URANUS compared to another galaxy. I wish 3000 miles was my neighbor I could visit a couple of my sisters pretty regularly.

[ROh70]

19. I grew up in Hawaii

and trust me, Hawaiians don't think of Guam as one of the "neighboring islands."

[phrigndumass]

22. Welcome to DU, ROh70!

:hi:

[Guaranteed]

29. Yeah? What about New Zealand?

Or Sri Lanka?

I can look at them both at the SAME TIME on a map. That's CLOSE!

[FARAFIELD]

34. OMYGOSH

first post. classic place to start. Some of us do know geography by the way.

[IDemo]

96. You mean I won't get lei'd in Guam?

[bigwillq]

122. Hello.

Welcome to DU! :hi:

[Cali_Democrat]

12. oy vey

Look at a map

[thevoiceofreason]

13. Good try, Spinny the wonder surrogate!

[Guaranteed]

15. LOL nt

[FARAFIELD]

17. LADIES AND GENTLEMAN, the next ambassador to GUAM

(if Hillary is elected) DU's own VOICEOFREASON ---except when it comes to geography

[mrreowwr_kittty]

80. OMFG.

You seriously owe me a new keyboard for that!

Spinny the Wonder Surrogate.

:rofl:

[sandnsea]

14. Clinton was projected to win Guam n/t

[Blue_State_Elitist]

103. Not according to the Obama campaign.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0208/Obamas_projections.html

[Emit]

16. need a map?

[smalll]

18. You're right. And yet Hillary's keeping it close. I guess they're not all Oguamatrons. /nt

[SemiCharmedQuark]

25. You're arguing that Guam is close to Hawaii? Seriously?

[FARAFIELD]

28. KEEPING IT CLOSE?

She was the presumptive winner there. She promised statehood, to bring down the Medical Cap AND the aforementioned PONY and she is going to get waxed. Right now it looks like 5-3 total delegates one UNcommitted, but the gal that is uncommitted wrote that she would support the caucus winner, right now thats OBAMA, so that makes it at BEst for HIll a 5-4. If the Unommitted super votes for the caucus winner then its 6-3 OBAMA and THAT is not keeping it close.

[Hoof Hearted]

37. I love it when you guys try to use stats from last year like they mean anything. Weak.

[Forkboy]

48. He's right? Ever see those things called maps?

I knew you were stupid, but do you have to prove it daily?

[SemiCharmedQuark]

60. I bet that's why Obama won Alaska. According to this map, they're neighbors too.

[Justitia]

65. No, he won Alaska because of the huge minority population there (snark) -eom

[Forkboy]

66. The rampanty stupidity is amazing, and scary, to behold.

These people are giving normal idiots a bad name.

[Harry Monroe]

74. Wow, didn't know that Alaska and Hawaii were so close to California and Texas!!

Or did Mexico annex them when we weren't looking??

[damntexdem]

20. Oh, so is this the reason that the results for Guam don't count?

And I thought it was going to be because it was a caucus.

;-)

[smalll]

33. Also, the white vote in Guam is a tiny minority. Yet another reason Obama should have landslided.

[SemiCharmedQuark]

35. Because all minorites of any stripe vote for the black man, huh?

[sudopod]

87. They're all out to get the white man, donchya know.

MASSIVE EYEROLL

[FARAFIELD]

41. Wait they are all RICH COLLEGE KIDS THERE

right? so the state should have been 100% to zero. I psyched that he will even NET 1 delegate there. 3 would be a gift.

[Forkboy]

50. I know...all minorities vote for black men!

[Gore1FL]

26. Actually, it was estimated to be a Hillary win

It'll split the delegates in half in all likelihood, anyways.

[Hoof Hearted]

30. Maybe that was true this time last year! This isn't good news for him.

[SemiCharmedQuark]

32. Do you know what the distance between guam and hawaii is?

[Hoof Hearted]

43. Statehood, for starters. Where exactly in your ass did you pull this statement out of?

I didn't say shit about Hawaii.

[SemiCharmedQuark]

49. The premise of the OP is that he should win Guam because Guam is Hawaii's "Neighbor"

So you coming into this thread with "yeah, that's right!" seems to imply that you agree with that.

[Hoof Hearted]

77. You are extremely confused. This is what I said

Maybe that was true this time last year! This isn't good news for him.



Where the hell do you get Hawaii out of that? Do you always run around trying to put words in others mouths? I suspect you do. Either that or this is kind of an off day for you.

[SemiCharmedQuark]

82. You are correct, I apologize.

I'm just shocked that anyone is stupid enough to believe that two countries separated by a distance greater than the length of the entire United States are "neighbors". Even if it was a simple mistake, I would come back and delete my OP, if it were me.

[sniffa]

51. Almost 4000 miles based on the 2 zipcodes I picked

http://www.myrateplan.com/how_far/

I'm trying to find some zip codes for Hawaii and Puerto Rico that are under 5000 miles so that we can safely call PR for Obama.

[SemiCharmedQuark]

52. I heard somewhere around 3800, but my geography is rusty, so I thought I'd play it safe

[Gore1FL]

53. What? winning a contest and splitting the delegates?

that is 4 more delegates off the table.

Actually he winning was true this year with the delegate split being pretty much the same.

[FARAFIELD]

56. NOT TRUE

based on the results he will get AT LEAST a 5-3 and if the UNCOMMITTED keeps her promise to support the cacaus winner he will get a 6-3 split, NOT CLOSE>

[Gore1FL]

70. I was only speaking of pledged delegates.

Of those 8, each get a 1/2 vote. So yes a 5-3 is not 2-2, but 2.5 to 1.5, which is a one delegate pickup. I was doing it as whole numbers. If Obama picks up a super (with a full vote) because of it, all the better. That would give him a net gain of 2 as a result of the race.

[sniffa]

38. He should probably win Oregon in a landslide then too

It's a lot closer to Hawaii than Guam.

I can't believe it's not just math now, but geography too? What's next on the challenged block, reading and writing? :cry:

[SemiCharmedQuark]

45. He should win the whole U.S. if his radius of influence is apparently +3600 miles

from places he has lived.

[Justitia]

59. LOL - Dead on - LOL

[Beacool]

39. He was always expected to win Guam and win it big.

What's surprising is that he's winning by such a narrow margin.

[PM7nj]

44. What? Since when?

Most people didn't even know Guam was having a primary today. I haven't heard a thing about it anywhere...

[Hoof Hearted]

46. Bingo!

[featherman]

47. Wrong... nice spin. Guam was ALWAYS projected for Clinton

This is an upset. I've seen 75-25 and 80-20 projections for Clinton. I pay attention to these things.

"Aside from Pennsylvania, Indiana and North Carolina, there are 7 remaining contests: Guam, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota. Hillary, as of today, is EXPECTED TO WIN West Virginia, Kentucky, GUAM and Puerto Rico." (emphasis added)

http://cbslocalblogs.prospero.com/n/blogs/blog.aspx?webtag=kyw_backroom&entry=3

[depakid]

71. The polls were way wrong... again?

Gasp!

[FARAFIELD]

64. AND THEN YOU WOKE UP

Like FOX news you keep repeating it and youll believe it, the fact is she promised statehood et al and is going to go down 5-4 or 6-3/

[NotThisTime]

68. He never expected to win it big

When his projections were made prior to the primary season, his projection was 10%, he's at 6 or 7, don't see where the big meteorite moment is here.

Course on the other hand he only expected to win Virginia by 2% and that turned out to be a landslide for him. His projections have been quite accurate other than Virginia and Wisconsin where he won by a larger margin than expected and he won Maine whereas his projection was to narrowly lose Maine....

So where's that meteorite moment? Just wondering?

[FrenchieCat]

90. Oooh! Busted lying. You don't even show any evidence to back up your lie!

how low!

[Blue_State_Elitist]

107. The Obama campaign thought they would win.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0208/Obamas_projections.html

[Undercurrent]

42. Neighbors? Hardly.

It's about 3,800 miles from Hawaii to Guam.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

83. Geography is clearly not the OP's strong suit. nt

[gristy]

54. You think Guam is next to Hawaii?

Is that what you are saying?

[SemiCharmedQuark]

57. Also it's chock full of minorities!

and you know how us minorities always vote for other minorities.

[Justitia]

61. Yeah, I read upthread how Guam doesn't have any white people - LOL. -eom

[depakid]

55. I think people are forgetting that Guam has a considerable military presence

[cottonseed]

58. It's an absolutely crushing defeat for the Hillary campaign.

Stephanopoulos will be taking tabs on American flag pin lapels and Carville will be warming up that Judas charge.

[BklnDem75]

62. Whew! I'm dizzy!

What happened to all those posts that came out around the Penn primary that had Guam locked for Hillary? You spin so much, I thought you was a DJ.

[SoxFan]

67. Hillary should win Luxembourg

It's only 3,000 miles from Chappaqua. Practically a neighbor.

[IntravenousDemilo]

72. Hawaii and Guam are neighbours like Baltimore and Paris are neighbours.

Hawaii --> Guam = 3,802 miles.
Baltimore --> Paris = 3,806 miles.

It's a very big ocean.

[TomClash]

73. Are you kidding?

Guam is closer to Manila or even Taipei than Honolulu.

[bunnies]

76. Dear Camp Hillary; At least point your shills to google maps.

Obviously they cant find it on their own.

[AlinPA]

81. Funny. They are 3000 miles apart.

[Bensthename]

85. Neighbors? They are 4000 miles apart

[datopbanana]

86. "Being born in Hawaii practically makes him a next door neighbor." ????????

LOOOOOOOOOOOOL

That's a keeper.

[caledesi]

89. Uh no. Hillary was supposed to be favorded! nt

[helderheid]

91. Only if Hillary loses!

:rofl:

[grantcart]

93. Aren't all those Island people alike lol

[dbmk]

94. Right now it looks like a 2-2 split

According to
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/05/guam-primary-results-and-la-01la-06.html
its currently: 53-47 in Obamas favour after 95% reporting.

That would lead to a 2-2 split of the pledged delegates. It would take 56,25% for one of them to make it 2,5-1.5 (Remember, its 8 ½-delegates they are choosing)

More here:
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/dbmk/1

As far as what was expected noone had a clue. Tons of speculation on different reasons for it going one way or the other. But as far as real expectations, it was more or less clear that noone was having any.

(Sorry grantcart, this was not a reply to you, but a general reply :) )

[grantcart]

113. Looks like 100% in now

http://www.kuam-media.com/news/demcaucus/results.htm

[MilesColtrane]

95. I personally believe that U.S. American Obama is unable to do so...

...because, uh, some, people out there in our nation don't have maps and, uh, I believe that our, uh, education like such as, uh, South Africa and, uh, the Iraq, everywhere like such as, and, I believe that they should, our education over here in the U.S. should help the U.S., uh, or, uh, should help South Africa and should help the Iraq and the Asian countries, so we will be able to build up our future, for our .

[Midlodemocrat]

97. So, I live on the East Coast, my brother lives on the West, and we're

practically next door neighbors? Who knew? :shrug:

[spooky3]

98. Hasn't Obama won nearly all of the caucuses (Guam uses the caucus also)?

[dbmk]

101. Caucus by name, primary by practice

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/dbmk/1

Lets call it a Primacaucus. And have a vote on whether it counts.

Actually it seems that the Guam votes have already voted in favour of not counting, 53-47.

[spooky3]

106. thanks and looks as if you were right in your prediction

congratulations!

[woolldog]

118. why are you so interested in the U.S. Elections?

[JoFerret]

99. It would seem to be a natural "stronghold"

.

[SemiCharmedQuark]

100. Why?

[SoCalDem]

102. Next door...IF you don't count the 3000 miles of ocean between them

:rofl:
Look at a map:)

Guam is closer to Japan & Australia than to Hawaii :)

[iamthebandfanman]

104. what a silly assumption.

oh, so cause hes from an island then he should win an island eh?

im sensing racial/ethnic undertones to this thread ;)

gosh, you clinton people suuuure are gettin' desperate, aint cha friend ?

[eleny]

105. By how many votes did Hillary win Illinois?

[Rosa Luxemburg]

108. They used to like Bill

[Bright Eyes]

109. I wonder how long it will be before we see a

"Guam Doesn't Count" thread?

[iamthebandfanman]

110. any minute now

have no fear , the clinton (republican) spin machine is still goin' strong!

[dbmk]

115. They just voted in favour of not counting. 53-47

[book_worm]

111. Nice spin, but Obama beat the former First Lady--his 31st win.

[Bensthename]

114. President and 1st lady.. Bill campaigns as much or more then her. Obama beat's them both..

:rofl:

[crimsonblue]

116. here ya go-- it may be helpful

[Vinca]

117. Guam is in the Pacific Ocean, Hawaii is in the Pacific Ocean, therefore

Obama should win by a landslide? Do you work for MSNBC?

[Austinitis]

120. That's what makes his weak loss a major upset!

[npincus]

123. knock knock... anybody home? Obama WON.

[SparkyMac]

124. Wow ! Hillary darn near beat him on his home field n/t

[lojasmo]

127. 3,820 miles from Hawaii to Guam.

Hardly neighbors. In fact, California is less than half that distance, so Hillary should have won big in Hawaii.