Arguing Electability Based on GE Polls is Meaningless. It's 6 Months Away.

[nyccitizen]

It is absurd for either candidate to point to current GE head-to-head matchups as an indicator of electability versus the other, especially since almost all of them fluctuate week to week. The election is 6 Months Away!

Keep some perspective:

-Around this time in '88 Dukakis was leading Bush by double digits in national polls.

-Around this time in '92 Bill Clinton was polling a distant third and Ross Perot was on his way to becoming the next President.

-6 months ago, the same amount of time till the GE, all polls indicated Hillary Clinton was going to steamroll her way to the nomination by Super Tuesday. On the Republicans side, Rudy Giuliani was the frontrunner and Romney was the dark horse, while McCain's campaign was a late night joke.

In the past 2 weeks alone there have been polls showing Obama faring better against McCain, and some showing Clinton faring better. All of these polls are meaningless this far out. The nomination process has to be about issues. 4 years ago we nominated the candidate deemed "the most electable" and we all saw how that turned out.

[featherman]

1. "For entertainment purposes only"

[tbyg52]

2. Absolutely! Thank you for the reminder of history. nt

[Milo_Bloom]

3. There is a second problem here...

These polls pop up in every primary, but the primary often doesn't go on this long or is this close for people to remember... the second place candidate ALWAYS polls better during the most heated period.

It is a 3 way race. 40% are solidly for McCain.. that is his base. 40% are solidly for a democrat, no matter who (that is our base) and then 20% are bittery partisan and support their candidate above all others. Those who feel comfortable (behind the winner) are simply more likely to admit they will vote for the opposition if they win, while those who are for the underdog want to make the underdog seem stronger and thus say they will vote for the GOP over the other dem.

This went on in 2000 with Gore/Bradley and even between McCain/Bush... I remember being very excited b/c early polls showed that McCain could win, but Bush couldn't and Bush was likely to get the nomination.

[MannyGoldstein]

4. What? You Mean That Clinton Doesn't Have Her 30-Point Lead Anymore?

As you say, polls this far out are ridiculous.