the popular vote tallied. Looking good for HRC......

[BenDavid]

Obama has 14,993,000, Hillary has 15,112,000, without Florida, and Michigan. That gives her the popular vote. That has to look good to the Superdelegates looking for an excuse to vote for her.

obama is unelectable, and the Democrats must see that by now. Cannot wait until the convention. Even if they settle this in June.

[Secret_Society]

1. What numbers are you looking at?

I'm an HRC supporter but I haven't seen pop vote numbers like that without Florida and Michigan.

[Guaranteed]

7. They're false by any method, and in any case, there's no proper method.

The popular vote stuff is just the product of desperate imaginations.

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

18. If my mother had four legs she could win the Kentucky Derby

yee hah

[SwampG8r]

70. popular vote is a canard

we dont know what the popular vote is do we?
can anyone say caucus?

[goldcanyonaz]

2. We are not allowed to talk about that here. Obama Underground and all.

[otohara]

8. There's More Obama Supporters

on DU - I'm outraged - Obama needs to issue an apology immediately.

He needs to issue an apology to Hillary and all her supporters for winning the most delegates.

[Seeker30]

41. Yes there are more Obama supporters here

Most Hillary supporters have lives and don't have time to post 100 times a day on here.

[shadowknows69]

42. Clearly you're not one of those

[otohara]

68. That Wasn't Very Nice

maybe Hillary's supporters don't have computers - my 84 year old Aunt Trudy doesn't.

[dogday]

57. What about the ones who have no candidate?

There are many more than you think on this forum... We watch each side attack the other and are just plain turned off by either side... I will wait for the Democratic Nominee and there I will place my support.. Saves me the time of name calling, insult, innuendos and the like....

[datopbanana]

24. We are not allowed to talk about made up facts?

Do some critical thinking, HRC is not winning the popular vote.

[Forkboy]

26. You poor, poor victim.

[CreekDog]

37. among some of the most informed Democratic voters (DU) Obama is well ahead

sorry if that seems unfair or like you are being stifled.

you are still here and still speaking.

[baldguy]

3. Too bad for her that we're counting delegates and not popular votes.

[MADem]

11. We aren't counting delegates unless we hit 2024. Otherwise, all bets are off. NT

[baldguy]

20. You would disenfranchise people who live in caucus states?

[VotesForWomen]

27. who said that? the rules say you have to reach a certain # of delegates, not just 'be ahead.' sorry

[MADem]

72. Amazing how they feel free to make up the rules as the go along, isn't it?

They don't worry about disenfranchising the voters of FL and Michigan, though, do they?

[yewberry]

74. That's what these 'popular vote' arguments do.

There aren't hard numbers for caucus states, so every discussion about 'popular vote' in the primaries either starts with an estimate of caucus votes or dismisses us outright. That's why we don't use popular vote numbers in the primaries.

[aquarius dawning]

36. that's it exactly.

[rodeodance]

38. yup--that magic number

[Evergreen Emerald]

46. Actually that is not true. "By ANY measure, Obama keeps telling the delegates"

"Vote for me, because the American people want me. I have more states, more delegates, more popular votes..." That has been the talking point by Obama and his surrogates.

So, Clinton counters with the argument that she has the states that count. The states we NEED to win in November and she has the most Americans supporting her--she has the popular vote.

Clinton is countering Obama's false argument with the facts.

[baldguy]

54. What states has Clinton won that don't generally Democratic in the general election?

The fact is that Obama has also "...the states that count. The states we NEED to win in November...". ALL the states count, we need ALL of them. And the only way Clinton can get claim more popular votes is if she 1)- Includes MI, where she was the only one on the ballot and Obama supporters voted "undecided"; 2)- she includes TX, where she won the pop vote but lost in the caucuses & delegate count and 3) doesn't count any of the states that only do caucuses.

Just adding Obama's MI undecideds to his total puts him over Clinton in the popular vote.

But of course WE AREN'T COUNTING THOSE. For every delegate Obama picks up, Clinton needs FOUR. There's no realistic way for Clinton to win.

[Dogmudgeon]

56. LIER! Obama has a 48-state Strategery!

GOMABA!

--p!

[baldguy]

76. Hillary apparently has a 36½ state strategy

Since the 14 caucus states don't count (and Texas only counts for half)

[otohara]

4. You Think After 2000 When Gore Had

500,000 more votes than Bush but had to walk away because of the "delegate" rules, and a stolen state that somehow Hillary & Bill are going to waltz in and change the rules?

How, enlighten me!

[LVjinx]

28. Because most of us recognize Gore actually won in 2000...

Although many Obama supporters have since adopted the Bush "Let's throw the vote out" mentality.

[otohara]

69. Absurd

just another insult - how do Obama supporters throw the vote out if the rules state delegates win? Not to mention the man is ahead in the popular vote too!

Most of us know Bush stole 2000/2004

[PurityOfEssence]

66. Nader took more than 97,000 votes in Florida in '00; that's not going to happen this time

By most indicators, Obama has a very hard time winning in that state, whereas Clinton has a VERY good chance. That alone is a serious argument for electability.

Both candidates are extremely risky, but here we are...

[NanceGreggs]

5. (1) You're numbers are wrong ...

... (2) the primaries are about delegates, not popular votes, and (3) the idea that you think the SD's are "looking for an excuse to vote for her" says everything.

[paulk]

75. the primaries are about choosing the candidate who has the

best chance of winning the general election.

They are not about delegates OR the popular vote.

That's why the super delegates exist and that's why they are free to vote however they choose.

[billyoc]

6. My last Tarot card spread looked pretty good for her too. nt

[virtualobserver]

9. your numbers do include Florida and Michigan, with no votes for Obama in Michigan

[NanceGreggs]

10. Whadda ya gonna nitpick now? n/t

[MonkeyFunk]

25. He didn't get any votes in Michigan

due to his own decision.

[Blarch]

39. MF...Yor credibility is history.

[MonkeyFunk]

40. awww

you know how I live for your approval.

Tell me then, how many votes did he get in Michigan? Educate me.

[dcindian]

43. how orwellian

Up is down down is up. Stupid is the new smart.

[MonkeyFunk]

50. LOL

You guys just toss insults when faced with a simple fact.

Somebody complained that the totals included no votes for Obama in Michigan. I pointed out that Obama received no votes in Michigan. That is a simple, indisputable fact. What's Orwellian about that?

[onenote]

47. The popular vote only has meaning if a superdelegate thinks its relevant

And you are way too smart to actually think that a superdelegate is going to look at the total popular vote and assume that Obama has zero support in Michigan.

Its the silliest of silly arguments, and you are better than that.

[SwampG8r]

71. yes

his decision to honor the rules
hillary however .....not so much

[MonkeyFunk]

77. another Obama fan lie

there was no rule requiring them to remove their names from the ballot. None at all. That's wholly made up - an invention of people who will lie about anything if they think it supports their candidate.

You guys are despicable.

[philk17088]

79. Despicable?

Are you going to sit there and tell us that Obama wouldn't have gotten a single vote in a regular sanctioned primary?
Hillary claims a win in a game thats standing was cancelled.

[Levgreee]

12. Obama has the popular vote without FL + MI, or with FL but not MI

your numbers are horribly wrong

[Evergreen Emerald]

51. that is not the point. Obama keeps saying "by any measure" he is ahead

that is not true. Not in the states that count (the ones we need in November) and not by popular vote.

He is the one who is telling the supers to consider popular vote.

[TK421]

13. Hey Ben...you BETTER GET READY for the thread-shits you are about to receive for this one!!!!@!@

SERIESLY!#@!#

[Usrename]

14. I guess you don't do numbers.

Why not just admit you are arithmetically challenged?

[hokies4ever]

15. Great job not counting those caucus states

Like Slick Willie said, who wants to count states that he thinks will go Republican in the election. Only blue state democrats should be counted.

[Veruca Salt]

78. Maine is a repub bastion dontcha' know...

:rofl:

[DerekJ]

16. Your meds Ben. Your MEDS. You forgot'em again?!!

[DearAbby]

17. How did you calculate the Caucus states?...........n/t

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

19. Your Magic Eight Ball must be using Republican Rules

perhaps?

[bluestateguy]

21. The Establishment is terrified

Obama is taking them down.

[LVjinx]

29. Which is why they're all endorsing him... Riight. Which candidate is the establishment candidate?

[CreekDog]

22. no link to your numbers and no responses from you

nice work, but I think Hillary is paying you to put in a better effort than that!

:spank:

[Webster Green]

23. Another update from Opposite World..

Thanks, Ben! :hi:

[pompano]

30. Gee Whiz...

Talking about moving goalposts? These posts deserve Frequent Flyer Miles.

"Willoughby-Willoughby-next stop...Willoughby!!"

[OneBlueSky]

31. they are both unelectable as long as Republican corporations count the votes . . .

it's not who votes that counts; it's who counts the votes . . .

[last_texas_dem]

32. What's the value of the popular vote tally

for a series of primaries and caucuses conducted days, weeks, even months apart (and thus the variety of dynamics that this introduces, including other candidates still being in the race) in a bunch of different states with a variety of rules regarding who is allowed to participate (closed, open, etc.)? Pretty worthless thing to tally and tout as having any sort of validity, regardless of which candidate is ahead.

[CakeGrrl]

33. Meanwhile, this is what's happening on Planet Earth:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html

[dbmk]

34. Yeah, I have seen that falsehood being paraded round

..more than once lately.

Someone must be spreading misinformation on taylormarsh and hillaryis44.

How can anyone not know that Obama is 500k+ ahead without those two states(of which he wasn't on the ballot in one)?

[cali]

35. SDs disagree with you.

And your numbers are wrong. Shocker.

[Maribelle]

44. She also currently leads with the Super-delgate vote. Add in the SDs from FL and MI ...

and she has a commanding lead.

This is very reason Obama has hung the voters in Florida totally out to dry, including hundreds of thousands of African-Americans that voted on Jan 29th.

[onenote]

49. why would you add the SDs from Michigan to her column?

They wouldn't be bound by the Michigan popular vote even if it counted. John Conyers already has endorsed Obama and if you look at the list of Michigan superdelegates, you can see at a third of them that are likely to go in Obama's direction.

[Maribelle]

53. The Florida and Michigan superdelegates not being counted right now:

If FL and MI were included in the super-delgate count, Hillary would have 282 Obama 249; Hillary would have a 33 point lead and there would be 35 more recognized uncommitted


For Hllary: 15

Sen. Bill Nelson (FL)
Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (FL)
Rep. Alcee Hastings (FL)
Rep. Corrine Brown (FL)
Rep. Kendrick Meek (FL)
DNC Raul Martinez (FL)
DNC Chuck Mohlke (FL)
DNC Ken Curtis (FL)

Gov. Jennifer Granholm (MI)
Hon. John Cherry (MI)
Sen. Debbie Stabenow (MI)
Rep. Sander Levin (MI)
DNC Joel Ferguson (MI)
Rep. Dale Kildee (MI)
Rep. John Dingell (MI)


For Obama: 5

DNC Allan Katz (FL)
DNC Joyce Cusack (FL)
Rep. Kathy Castor (FL)
Rep. Robert Wexler (FL)

Rep. John Conyers (MI)



source: http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-list.html

[MaineDem]

45. Too bad there is no way to tally popular vote

Any number given is totally bogus. There is no possible way to get an accurate popular vote total.

[onenote]

48. another OP that failed both reading and math. How does he/she use a computer?

The closest numbers to the one's posted in the OP are in the column that includes MI and FL. Now, either the OP can't read or understand numbers, or the OP is intentionally posting false information. I've noticed that the OP hasn't returned to defend or correct his/her post, so we can draw the reasonable conclusion that the OP knew that he/she was posting false information.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html

[Rosa Luxemburg]

52. popular vote is meaningless

[Dogmudgeon]

55. We sure found that out in 2000, didn't we?

--p!

[Rosa Luxemburg]

59. yes we did

life is all about delegates and electoral colleges

[RBInMaine]

58. FALSIFIED SPIN !

[karynnj]

60. There is no such think as popular vote in the primaries

no matter what Bill Clinton said. I have followed politics since 1964 and NO ONE ever spoke of the "national popular vote" in the primaries. It makes no sense when you have a mix of caucuses and primaries. The people who know this the best are the politicians and party officials who are the super delegates. Many are likely almost as angered by this false measure as they are by the Clinton threats and arm twisting.

Given the different way the delegates are chosen - even if you wanted to get a measure that estimates the "popular vote", you would treat the states as strata and weight the results to give each state the weight it deserves. The weights would likely be based on the 2004 and 2006 Democratic vote by state. Even then, there is a problem that some caucus states do not have official totals of people who came - because it was not saved as part of their process. It is asinine to blame them for not following a process that Bill Clinton now supports, because HRC is losing the one that everyone thought was the official process.

Your totals as wrong - I have no idea where you get them from - I assume that they are leaving out about 4 caucus states that do not have official counts that can be used as "votes".

The key to your post - "That has to look good to the Superdelegates looking for an excuse to vote for her." It works only if they are looking for a face saving excuse. If they weren't they would be looking at the fact that Obama has significantly more pledged delegates.

[jefferson_dem]

61. How are caucus state vote totals calculated?

I know they don't count to Hillary and her supporters but they do count to us democratically-inclined citizens.

[BlueIdaho]

62. BREAKING - Hillary Clinton Supports Straw Grasping as Olympic Event.

[Toucano]

80. Too funny!

Sometimes the barbs traded between supporters of both candidates are really ugly.

This, however, is Daily-Show-funny!

Thanks!

[madfloridian]

63. Here is a link to the popular vote tally....you are NOT telling the truth at all

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html

[saltpoint]

64. Turns out, though, convention delegates elect nominees.

Senator Clinton has lost the nomination.

[whatchamacallit]

65. Cue the calliope!

:+
Ben

[Bensthename]

67. You better alert the MSM and all candidates. Their number do not show this..

Send them this.. You make a great argument with so many facts to back this up..

[PseudoIntellect]

73. I like how you use the most skewed numbers possible for Clinton.

You include the two "unconstitutional" elections but make sure NOT to include IA, NV, ME, and WA. Yeah, those caucuses just shouldn't be counted, right?

The total is Obama +501,466. But this number doesn't really mean anything. We have caucuses and primaries. If Hillary had won Nevada in a primary, her gain in popular vote would have been more than if it was a caucus, right? And if Obama had won Washington in a primary, he would have gained more in popular vote, too.

There is no real measure of popular vote in the primaries. That's why we have pledged delegates.

[Gore1FL]

81. When did this argument stop being a canard?

Oh it hasn't?

Thanks...

[TBF]

82. Where did you get those numbers? Source? Link??

[mikekohr]

83. The lead post is NOT factual! -Obama still leads by 501,466 popular votes-

His lead, including the estimates from the caucus states is 611,688 popular votes. He has accumulated 49.2% of the popular vote as compared to Clinton's 47.5%

The correct vote totals (no caucus states) is: Senator Obama 14,418,784 Senator Clinton 13,917,318

Here is the link: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html

But it is DELEGATES that count, not popular vote, and the Super Delegates are breaking in Senator Obama's direction.



mike kohr