*BREAKING* New SUSA poll Oregon....Obama 50, Clinton 44

[Secret_Society]

I believe this is good news for HRC. In a state with a very small black population, I believe Hillary has a strong chance to move these numbers. As I see it HRC will end this primary season very strong (winning RI, Ohio, Texas, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Kentucky, WV, Oregon, and PR with Obama only closing out with Vermont, NC, Montana, and SD, Oregon up for grabs). This was a state that many believed Obama would easily. He may have to come out and debate in Oregon with a race this close. Of course it's only one poll and what the hell do I know.

[LakeSamish706]

1. Dreams, Dreams, and more Dreams... n/t

[Pawel K]

5. lol, now you have that song stuck in my head. thanks

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M3-rslY_Yf8

[Cali_Democrat]

2. I think that's very similar to other polls that have come out of Oregon

Is it not? I don't remember all that well.

[jackson_dem]

6. No. There have been only 2 OR polls since January and both were down by this firm

4/6 Obama 52, Hillary 42
Now Obama 50, Hillary 44

Obama down 2, Hillary up 2 and this is before she gets shots of momentum from IN and WV.

[jefferson_dem]

15. So Obama's been through one of the biggest, longest shitstorms of any candidate in recent memory...

And she gains a measly four points. Wow.

[Cali_Democrat]

21. Considering the media onslaught...

that's not too shabby for Obama. It's been Wright 24/7/365. Only down 2 and Hillary up two. His support remained above 50%. Not bad at all!!

[DJ13]

3. In a state with a very small black population......

I dont know why, but that sounds offensive to me coming from another Democrat.

[depakid]

7. It also belies a fundamental misunderstanding of Oregon politics

Obama should win the state handily and if I were to posit a guess, I'd say a 6 point spread would be about right.

[smalll]

44. Yes it does. Oregon's Dem primary electorate has to rival Vermont's for extreme latte liberalism.

You've got Portland (Seattle South) only lightly seasoned by a few votes out in the hinterlands.

[depakid]

68. Wow.

Yet another who apparently doesn't understand us.

Seattle South?

Perish the thought....

[woolldog]

10. it was offensive.

[Name removed]

35. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Secret_Society]

11. I was just pointing to the fact that blacks are firmly behind Obama now

No matter how long Clinton campaigned in NC, should would not be able to move 35% of the electorate. No offense meant.

[woolldog]

18. The implication the white Obama supporters are somehow less

committed or less firm than black Obama supporters is sort of a slap in the face to white Obama supporters, don't you think?

[Secret_Society]

23. Of course not...each side has very commited supporters

I am just discussing demographics. Oregon, demographically, has less people that cannot be moved from Obama's camp. Oregon is also younger than PA, thus, demographically, Obama also has more a people he can move. I wanted to point out that though many assumed Oregon to be an Obama state, it may not be the cause and the numbers may be plastic.

[woolldog]

27. That's too reductive.

By that analysis Clinton had a good chance in Vermont b/c there are a lot of whites there; the reality is she had absolutely no chance in Vermont.

[Roxy66]

63. That takes us back to Iowa. Virtually a "white" state....and who won there?

[Blondiegrrl]

41. Hell, the implication that Obama's white supporters are all wealthy is an insult to ME.

dirt poor <--------------

[stillcool]

53. yeah right...

I'm so sick of that crap! I'm an American, and I support Barack Obama!

[khaliljohnson]

31. You are trying to play the race card

the poster said what he said that because Obama typically wins states with very small black population by large margins. It's then a good news that Obama's lead in this state--which has a small black population, is not big.

Obama supporters always want to make everything about race. They beg the gods for a race war. They want everyone to think that the Clintons are racist.

[woolldog]

45. No, that's not what he was saying.

He was saying that because the electorate is white, they're more malleable.

[wanpete]

55. no one has to want the Clintons to be considered racists, one only need to look at the tactics used

by their campaign that have now firmly made race a pivotal issue in this race. Obama tried to rise above divisiveness and wedge politics. When the chips were down, the Clintons resorted to this type of politics.

[QC]

57. Oregon's population is 1.9% African-American.

Most would consider that a fairly small share of any state's population.

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/41000.html

[jackson_dem]

4. He may not even win MT and SD

The reason they are expected to go for him in a landslide is the same reason OR was: caucuses in neighboring states. OR, SD, and MT will all have primaries that allow equal access to voting and do not disenfranchise working folks, seniors, immigrants, and others. He won the Washington caucus (10% turnout) 68-31. However, in the primary which had more than double the turnout his margin was only 51-46 and this was during the height of his popularity during the halcyon "11 straight" days. There is no polling for Montana but the lone SD poll had him ahead by 12 several weeks ago. For sure he begins with an advantage in OR, SD, and MT but they are not locks for him by any means like they would be if they were 1.9% turnout caucuses or like NC is.

Obama won't debate. He knows he sucks at them and knows what happens to his numbers after debates. A debate alone could swing that 6 point lead to a narrow deficit.

This is one poll but we only have had two OR polls and by the same firm. This shows movement to Clinton. He led by 10 before. She will have momentum heading into OR after winning IN, almost pulling off a miracle in NC, and blowing him out in WV the week before Oregon and Kentucky vote. She has a shot at sweeping the rest of the contests aside from NC.

One more not about OR, while it has a small black population it has a large "latte liberal" population and that is why, along with mistakenly conflating sham caucus results in nearby states, he was expected to win OR easily. If he can't win Oregon where can he win (since the vetting process began) a primary where the black share of the electorate is under 1/3?

[jefferson_dem]

8. She needs 66%+ in every contest. Can she close the deal?

:popcorn:

[NJSecularist]

12. She just needs to win the popular vote, and that is entirely possible. n/t

[jefferson_dem]

19. What does the popular vote have to do with anything?

You might as well say "all Hillary needs is the sound of one hand clapping."

It takes 2025 delegate votes - or a lead in PDs - to secure the nomination, silly.

[NJSecularist]

22. Nowhere in the nomination rules does it say anything about being entitlted to the nomination...

If you have a plurality of pledged delegates.

You clinch the nomination by winning 2024 pledged delegates. That's it.

Neither candidate will win 2024 pledged delegates, so we use other metrics to determine who the nominee is.

[Hawkeye-X]

36. Hello? Is there echo in your brain?

POPULAR VOTES DOES NOT COUNT IN THIS PRIMARY - DELEGATES DOES!!!

[NJSecularist]

40. Neither candidate will have 2024 pledged delegates. So your point is moot. n/t

[jackson_dem]

13. Only if you believe the fairy tale that superdelegates, FL/MI don't exist

[wanpete]

56. FL/MI didn't follow the rules. You can't disobey the rules and then change them when you don't like

the way the game is shaping up.

[Qutzupalotl]

20. I like my coffee like I like my candidate...

Black, strong and bitter! :7

So you can take your latte liberal comment and suck on it! Oregon is Obama territory, baby!

[neverforget]

58. what the fuck is a "latte liberal"? Please tell this Oregonian what that is.

Thanks.

[woolldog]

9. She's not going to win Oregon.

Sorry. Don't get your hopes up. You think she has a strong chance to move those numbers just because there are a lot of white people in Oregon? Wow.

[LSparkle]

14. Yeah, what the hell do you know ...

[Secret_Society]

17. Not much just like everybody else here looking to make predictions

just looking to have a nice discussion

[Qutzupalotl]

16. I'm seeing far more Obama signs than Clinton here in Oregon.

Like 10:1. The energy's on Obama's side.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

25. Obama should win Oregon

[Oregone]

28. Ive seen ZERO Clinton signs

Quite a few Obama signs (about the same amount as Ron Paul signs).

[Qutzupalotl]

52. I saw my first Clinton yard sign a week ago,

surrounded by two Obama signs. They stand out for their rarity.

A month or two back I saw a Clinton bumpersticker on a minivan.

But I see Obama everywhere.

[sakura]

61. I haven't seen a single Clinton sign...

And I drive all over the Portland metro area for work. One Clinton bumper sticker so far. Countless Obama signs and stickers.

[rove karl rove]

24. she is closing the gap but

Obama ought to be able to still win - the local media here is full of his ads, haven't seen nary a Clinton one YET, though.

[Secret_Society]

26. I'm sure money wise she's taking it one state at a time

I do know Bill was in eastern Oregon already

[Roxy66]

64. Where was he? What town?

[thewiseguy]

29. Obama is up and you are spinning it in favor of Hillary?

[KittyWampus]

30. She already LOST TEXAS.

[truth-warrior]

32. Obama is fading FAST

[Hawkeye-X]

33. Hillary is not even going to make it to Oregon

Not with her $30M in debt, and barely $15M in fundraising - per my prediction thread.

Hawkeye-X

[StevieM]

34. I wouldn't count on an Obama win in Montana. Maybe Daschle can carry him piggy back

to victory in South Dakota.

Steve

[Skwmom]

37. So now Oregon is home to a bunch of WHITE RACISTS?

I wonder how the residents of Oregon would feel about being painted as a bunch of white racists?

[quakerboy]

46. Well, this one

Says I know at least one assjacked town that is chock full up of racists. And when I went there last week, I saw 7 Hillary signs in the space of 9 houses. Parents of the kids I went to High School with.

Outside of that, it is a bit annoying. The rest of us, the bulk of us even, are relatively free of it, aside from the normal built in systematic racism present across our country.

[Roxy66]

65. Name of the town?

[quakerboy]

66. Heh

Sandy. Just east of Portland. Not my favorite place.

[nancyr]

47. We already know it.

The rural areas outside of the major metropolitan centers are pretty darned bigoted. Thank God for Portland and Eugene!

[Major Hogwash]

38. Hillary doesn't have a prayer in Oregon.

Believe me, not even a faint prayer.

[Bensthename]

39. Obama is leading in a state with a "very small black population".

MSM has me believing only the black states will and have voted for him..
What is going on here? Does MSM know about this? Oh gawd..

[Hoof Hearted]

42. Holy shit! This is ENORMOUSLY good news for Hillary!

Woooooo! Hooooooo!:toast:

[quakerboy]

43. Um... the problem is

a lot of us are voting Right now, not later. My ballot arrived in the mail Today and will be filled out before sundown. I just have to figure out the local candidates. So, will future polls really have any meaning? Would a swing in the polls on the 15th make any difference in the Oregon result? I have doubts.

[avrdream]

48. Yeah, just about every recent poll is showing upward movement for Hill!

Just wait until Rev. Wright answers back to Barack in a few days!

[goldcanyonaz]

49. SWEET!!!

[Joe the Revelator]

50. The last poll had Obama by ten, right? This looks like statistical noise to me.

Hate to burst your pipe dream.

[sandnsea]

51. lolololol, they must have called the retirement towns

There is no way these numbers are right. This is hysterical.

[wanpete]

54. in a state with a very small black population....guess that's the only way Obama wins huh?

this seems to be a very narrow-minded way of thinking. He has broad appeal.

[mckeown1128]

59. wow... selective details...

you mentioned RI OH TX for Hillary but forgot to mention WY and MS for Obama.... andI think he will win PR.... he has the institutional support... I have yet to hear any arguments as to why Hillary would win. Her position on PR statehood will be a big deal breaker for her in PR.

[Secret_Society]

60. I didn't include WY and MS because I was counting froom March 4th

I have heard pundits mention her support there. Also, the one poll that has been conducted had her up 13%. What is her position on PR statehood?

[mckeown1128]

67. WY and MS were AFTER march 4th....

and the pundits... please don't think the pundits know ANY thing. They are full of it. They think that because PR have similar skin tone to South western Hispanic Americans that they will vote like them. They don't seperate skin tone from cultures. PR's have different issues at stake and Obama is on the right side of issues important to them.


Also, polls don't mean anything untill the candidates get on the ground. Most states had Hillary way up untill Obama introduced himself to the voters... Look I am not saying Obama is going to win. I am saying we really don't have any clue as to how they will vote.

[davidpdx]

62. The last poll had Obama up by 8

Not much movement and it might be just the ebb and flow of the race as polls go up and down.

Being from Oregon, I know Obama has quite a bit of support. It has nothing to do with the population of African-Americans and more to do with the individual candidate's stances on the issues. A very large portion of the population is based in the Willamette Valley, Portland, Salem and Eugene.

If I were a Clinton supporter (and I'm not) I wouldn't count on Oregon going for her. Just being honest.

[MattP]

69. Oregon is a no-go for Clinton

Obama is going to obliterate her in Oregon, big time. It's not even going to be close.