Insider Advantage Poll now has Obama ahead by 5. This is the poll that previously had Clinton by 2.

[nonobadfish]

Still low, but at least they are swinging away from Clinton being ahead. Now he is ahead in every NC poll.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nc/north_carolina_democratic_primary-275.html#polls

[lyonn]

1. Not bad considering the bashing Obama has gotten for nearly

a week over the Rev. Wright bashing of Obama. It may not help Hillary when she agrees with McCain over Obama on a multitude of issues, in particular, foreign affairs and corporations, ok, throw in Rupurt, Murdock the scum that is. Where is our party heading? Certainly a token tax break on gas tax isn't going to make America well in the financial arena. Matter of fact, it will end up costing us somewhere else. Trying to make advances diplomatically towards peace in the Middle East would be good for starters when it comes to the cost of oil and reduce our national debt.

[nonobadfish]

2. My thoughts exactly.

[jackson_dem]

5. Obama winning by 5 in NC is not good

This is a state tailor made for Obama. It is 1/3 black and has a lot of latte liberals. He looks like he is headed to a double digit defeat in IN, a blow out the following week in WV, and a blow out in KY and even perhaps a loss in OR. NC was supposed to be his firewall where he would win big and silence critics. In fact the crosstabs show that a NC win would do nothing to assuage the fears folks have about his electability.

The gas tax would help regular folks. It would be paid for by a tax on oil companies. It would not harm the deficit. The only people opposed to it are those who view such issues as academic. Obama can pay $4 for coffee. Most folks can't.

[jenmito]

10. If he wins by 9.2%, though, it will be a "blowout." Just like Hillary's PA win which was

tailor made for HER with ADDED advantages of having a powerful political machine behind her as well as "roots."

[jackson_dem]

12. PA wasn't a blow out

If Obama wins NC by 9% it would be a good win, like her PA win was, but neither qualify as a blow out. The problem for Obama is he is going to lose IN. Everyone knew Obama had NC in the bag.

There is a difference between the two states. Clinton's groups (seniors, working folks, Latinos, whites) don't give her 80-91% support in every state. This gave Obama an opportunity to win PA and he did get close before falling back during the final week. Obama started out up 30-3 in NC. That is rock solid support that would not waver. That meant Clinton would need 70% of the rest to win and that wasn't going to happen. There was nothing to suggest black voters in NC would vote differently than AA voters in the first 43 states. Clinton never had a shot in NC. Obama had one in PA and almost pulled it off until choking at the end.

[jenmito]

13. It was according to the media! Everyone knew Hillary had PA in the bag. Whose fault is it

that she doesn't get 80-91% support from her base?!

[jackson_dem]

25. Is she responsible for bloc voting that has been happening before she was even born?

[jenmito]

41. Do you forget that Hillary was getting more of the Black vote than Obama in all the polls?

[jefferson_dem]

23. Cute double-standard. Everyone also knew Hillary had PA "in the bag."

NC is *another* must-win for Hillary. The numbers don't lie. When will the media start telling us the truth about the state of the race?

[jackson_dem]

26. Really? Why did Obama cut the lead down to 4-6 in PA before losing on 3/4?

The fact he cut the lead twice shows the difference between PA and NC. Clinton had no impenetrable 30-3 rock of in PA and that is a huge difference between PA and NC. In PA Obama could cut into her groups as he did in other states. In NC the only way Clinton could win is basically running the table with 70-75% for the other 2/3 of the vote. One is possible, the other isn't.

[jefferson_dem]

32. PA was a must win for Hillary. She won but by half as much than she was leading by.

NC is a must win for Hillary. She's cut into Obama's lead. No doubt. Let's see if she can "close the deal." If not, hopefully, the media and her honest supporters will start telling the truth about the state of the race.

If Hillary didn't insult and, as a result, earn only 10ish% support from AA Dems...she wouldn't be painted into such a corner.

[jackson_dem]

34. Really? You believe that fairy tale

As Jamal Simmons predicted, after his Iowa win Obama moved to the 70's in AA support. At most Obama's use of the race card cost her an extra 10% or so of the AA vote.

As the fact show, Obama has a 30-3 firewall that she cannot penetrate. How does she win? No one expects her to win NC because NC wasn't going to deviate from what we have seen in the first 43 states (yes, even in Iowa she lost blacks with 16% to Obama's 72% and 8 for Edwards, 3 for Richardson, and 1 each for Dodd and Gravel. It is a fairy tale that she did something to "lose" what she never had the moment Obama won IA.).

[jefferson_dem]

47. You make a fine case against her GE electability.

She earns support from <10% of the most loyal bloc of voters in the Democratic Party's coalition. If the super-duper insiders even think of snatching the nomination from Obama and handing it to her, there will be more than hell to pay for a long, long time. I hope we don't have to go there.

[jackson_dem]

48. So did Mondale and Dukakis against Jesse Jackson

They both got nine out of ten when they faced a white GE opponent.

How can something he has not won be "snatched" for him? It is telling that someone claiming he will usher in a post-racial era has been so heavily reliant on racial threats since losing PA. He knows it may slip away and is playing his final card. This is only the beginning. After he loses IN, WV (blow out), KY (blow out), and OR we will really see this escalate. Obama is as much a uniter as Bush was...

[Hawkeye-X]

64. There you go again - youre obession with Jackson is really showing.

And I thought you were for Andrew Jackson!

[lyonn]

14. I didn't say Obama had it in the bag

But after the week of Barack bashing he is doing quite well.

The gas tax has to be approved by Congress, right? How many congresscritters are going to take away tax breaks or add taxes to the oilies? Not much else has been accomplished by the Dems since they took over control due to the 60 votes demanded by the repubs. I'm all for lowering the cost of gas, that's a no brainer, but, how will it be accomplished in the next few weeks to help we "lowly ones" during our fun summer months?

[gcomeau]

15. It is when...

...Clinton needs to win by 30 points in EVERY remaining state just to tie him in pledged delegates. That would be 35 points better than he needs to do to force her even further behind than she already is. That's plenty good. If he takes NC by 5 then Clinton needs to win every other state (including Indiana) by almost FIFTY points to tie him.

Yeah, that would be terrible. Go try to convince people of that who can't do basic math.

[Qutzupalotl]

17. Obama will win Oregon easily.

HRC's rally in Eugene got 2500 people. Obama's got 13,000.

[jackson_dem]

27. Remember his big rallies in PA, OH, and TX?

[Qutzupalotl]

29. Oregon: Obama 52%, Clinton 42%

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/polls/pdfs/surveyusa-election-poll-oregon-obama-clinton-april4to6-2008.pdf

[jackson_dem]

35. Yeah that is from a month ago. She has now closed it to 50-44

Thanks for pointing out another state where Obama is declining! :thumbsup:

[Qutzupalotl]

40. Hillary is still losing Oregon!

:rofl:

[jackson_dem]

43. Yes. When does Oregon vote? Tomorrow or three weeks from now?

She was losing Indiana too before she won Pennsylvania. :rofl:

[Qutzupalotl]

46. There's not enough movement for her to take Oregon.

People here HATE her for voting for war! They see her as corrupt, calculating and pandering. You can dream all you want but you can't change the facts.

[jackson_dem]

50. The "netroots" doesn't represent the real world

Many people on the "netroots" said the same thing about several other states she won. No one in their small, odd circle liked her so it must have been true!

OR polls mean little right now. Let's see how they look when the campaigns begin fully campaigning there and after Clinton gets a bounce for winning IN. The significance of current polling is that it shows OR is up for grabs. It is not a lock like it was expected to be for the "inevitable" Obama, the alleged greatest politician ever.

[Qutzupalotl]

53. WTF are you talking about

"netroots"?! :wtf:

I fucking live here.

I read the papers. I see the turnouts, the signs, read the LTEs. We are a blue state and don't take kindly to war enablers.

[jackson_dem]

56. We heard the same thing about how many other states?

Yeah, yeah. The press is on his side. He has rock star turnout for crowds. He has infinite resources so his signs are everywhere. His rabid followers flood newspapers with letters and rig online polls. We heard the same thing numerous times from Obamites "on the ground", including in Pennsylvania. All of what you say and they say is true but it reflects only a small slice of the population.

"Netroots"=the type of people who populate the netroots. You don't have to post here or blog at Kos to have the netroots world view. Fortunately for Clinton, that world view is limited to a small part of the population! :thumbsup:

[Qutzupalotl]

60. As a matter of fact, Oregon DOES vote tomorrow.

I just got my ballot in the mail today. You know we're all vote-by-mail, right? We have from today until the 20th to turn in our ballots.

I think I'll vote for...let's see...Obama, just to piss you off. :)

[VolcanoJen]

63. Oregon doesn't count, and there are probably a lot of latte liberals there

That's pretty much what jackson dem wants us to believe. :-)

[Qutzupalotl]

18. Indiana is tied.

Obama is surging!

[jackson_dem]

36. According to the same guy who had him tied in Ohio

:rofl:

[onenote]

21. why hasn't HRC introduced her gas tax relief bill

If she was serious, she'd actually put a bill in the hopper. It isn't going to magically happen on its own. Where is her vaunted "leadership" on this?

Or maybe, just maybe, its all a bunch of hot air.

[jackson_dem]

3. He was always ahead. What IA did is correct their undersampling of black voters

They now have black voters at 33%, just like everyone else. In their last poll they had it at 25%.

[nonobadfish]

8. Good to know...I didn't look closely enough to see they had corrected it.

[jackson_dem]

11. I smelled BS when I saw the last poll and checked the crosstabs

It had AA support at 25%. I then checked three other pollsters and they are all estimating 33% AA turnout. IA is now in line with that. As I said weeks before, given Obama's strong AA support the only way Clinton could offset his 90% black support in NC was with 70% white support and that is just very unlikely to happen.

[jefferson_dem]

19. Uh huh. As we expected, when you celebrated Hillary's two-point lead.

My prediction: Obama wins NC 54-45-1.

[jackson_dem]

24. That is funny. I don't believe I posted in the 2 point lead threads here

Here is what I said on the matter elsewhere:


jackson_dem Apr 30 2008, 11:13 PM Post #14
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I would love to believe this is true but it isn't. Don't set yourself up for a fall by raising expectations too high. This poll undersamples black voters. AA's are 22% of NC's population and only 25% of the sample. In VA they are 20.5% of the population and were 30% of Dem primary voters. Unless NC is unique and has an unusually high number of black Republicans this sample is off. The AA vote will be around 33% of the actual vote. Factor in that it will go 85-90% to Obama and Obama nets another six points (8% more and a 7-1 split). What this poll does suggest is that SUSA may be right and that it could be a close single digit loss, which is all Clinton needs out of NC. If Obama struggles to win NC where can he do well given his steady decline since the vetting process began? This state is tailor made for him. 1/3 of Dem primary voters will be black and there are a lot of affluent white "latte liberals" in the Research Triangle part of the state. If Clinton can beat him in IN, hold it to within single digits in NC she is in excellent shape. She will blow him out in WV and wins in PA, IN, and WV will give her momentum heading into 5/20 which could allow her to slingshot to a win in OR and expand on her current massive lead in KY. A 70% blowout in KY and an upset win in OR, a state with a lot of "latte liberals" in Portland, would completely change the dynamics of the race on the heels of PA, IN, WV (and don't forget OH, TX) and put Obama on the ropes. Keep in mind that Obama's last big win came over two months ago (Wisconsin). Unless he wins NC by large margins it won't be considered a big win, especially since the media focus is on IN, which Obama himself called a "tiebreaker" between PA (pro-HC) and NC (pro-BO).
Edited by jackson_dem, Apr 30 2008, 11:16 PM.

jackson_dem Apr 30 2008, 11:19 PM Post #16
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SUSA, ARG, and PPP are all using the 33% figure, which I believe is the best estimate. You make a good point about Wright, though. We don't know if that will reduce turnout. It might also cause some "defections" to Clinton. If even 9% of AA's stay home that means a net loss of 3% overall for Obama. If Obama gets 80% of the black vote instead of 90% that is a net loss of 3.3% overall. He can't afford to lose any blacks given how poorly he will do with whites, who will outnumber black voters 2:1.
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[jefferson_dem]

33. You're right. That was "NJS"... the other DUer.

Here's the original thread when we picked apart the bullshit methodology of the previous IA poll.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5759795&mesg_id=5759940

[jackson_dem]

55. I have also consistently cautioned against polls underestimating his black %

Ever since PA when the "Nutter effect" was nothing as Obama won 90-10 among blacks.

IA was unusually low for having him in the 60's but in many states Obama polls in the 70's among blacks yet when the vote comes in each state with no deviation black undecideds go overwhelmingly for him. Since this happens in every state what I do now is adjust poll results to give Obama 90-10 among blacks to get a true picture of what is going on. White undecideds also usually go for Clinton but not in every state and never at a 90% clip. IN and NC usually have her up around 57-33 among whites. I allocate her a bit more (57-33 is a 63% split of decideds), give her a 2:1 split among white undecideds. By the way, how sad is it that the best predictor of how someone is going to vote in this contest is skin color? Now she consistently gets 60% of the white vote while Obama now gets 90-10 black support (he started out in the high 70's and low 80's).

[jefferson_dem]

58. I appreciate and agree with your analysis here, jackson.

I won't call it a "game changer" (unless Obama wins IN) but am sure looking forward to the next Chapter to be written on Tuesday.

[jackson_dem]

59. thanks, jefferson

It could be a game changer as far as the supers go. You know what the main argument against his electability is and if he can't do it in IN where can he? He did it in some places early in the process but he is much weaker now than he was during the "11 straight" days. As far as the pledged delegate counts goes it will not matter. Realistically the pledged delegate battle was over on 3/4. The only way she could have gotten back in it was to blow him out in Texas and Ohio and it did not happen (10 points is a solid win but not a blow out imo). Since then her hopes have rested on the supers and she did what she had to do to bolster her case with them in Pennsylvania and looks to be on track to do the same in IN and even NC.

[onenote]

22. self delete

[Zachstar]

4. WAYYY too low he needs to get it up towards 15 and win in Indiana in my view to end this.

I do not know what he is doing but he needs to be going FAR into Clinton territory!

[PM7nj]

31. It won't end for another month...

She will keep going until the party forces her out on June 4th.

[Bensthename]

6. LMFAO.. MSM can not bring him down.. No matter how hard they try..

[JVS]

7. These are pre-shitgate numbers, right?

[Bensthename]

9. LMFAO.. MSM can not bring him down no matter how hard they try..

[flpoljunkie]

16. ARG poll just out for NC: Obama 52%, Clinton 41% Key findings very good for Obama!

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/05/02/arg_poll_obama_stays_ahead_in_north_carolina.html


ARG Poll: Obama Stays Ahead in North Carolina

A new American Research Group poll in North Carolina finds Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. Hillary Clinton, 52% to 41%.

Key findings: "Obama leads among men 55% to 39% and he leads among women 50% to 43%. Clinton leads among white voters 55% to 37% and Obama leads among African American voters 81% to 15%. African Americans account for 34% of likely Democratic primary voters. Obama leads 61% to 33% among likely primary voters under 50 and Clinton leads 50% to 43% among likely primary voters 50 and older."

Link to ARG poll: http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/ncdem8-705.html

[jenmito]

20. Thank you, flpoljunkie! That's GREAT news!

:hi:

[jackson_dem]

28. Key findings=very good for Clinton with the superdelegates

:thumbsup:

[Qutzupalotl]

30. How is losing NC good for Clinton?

[jackson_dem]

37. The way Obama is winning NC does nothing to answer the questions about his electability

He is losing the very groups supers fear he can't win by large margins in NC too, just as he is on his home court in IN and will especially do in WV the week after In/NC.

[Qutzupalotl]

39. So Hillary losing NC makes her more electable?

:crazy:

[jackson_dem]

42. No but winning IN, WV, PA, OH, TX, etc. does

All she has to do is keep it within single digits overall in NC, beat him by 15+ among whites, and clobber him among the white working class. She is on track to do all of these things. The biggest concern about Obama for supers is his limited appeal outside of his ethnic group. Winning NC because you are up 30-3 via your ethnic group does nothing to allay this concern if he loses outside his ethnic group by 15+.

[Qutzupalotl]

44. "Limited appeal outside his ethnic group"?!

You know that's not true.

She can't win more contests, more delegates or more votes. It's over.

[jackson_dem]

45. It is true

We know he consistently loses Latinos 2:1 and has never won more than 52% of Latinos. Even in his home state he won Latinos only 50-49! As to whites:





He also lost Asians 3:1 in California, the only state for which we have any exit poll data on Asians.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/age_or_education.php

It looks like you have been hoodwinked, bamboozled into believing the fairy tale that Obama has broad support that cuts across key demographic lines.

[Qutzupalotl]

67. You should have seen how many people outside his ethnic group stood in line

for hours to get the chance to see him. It looked like the start of the Boston Marathon!

There are not many people IN his ethnic group, if you think about it.

[Qutzupalotl]

49. Obama won Texas, remember?

Down in the primary, but overtook her with the caucus, according to TX rules.

[jackson_dem]

52. How many low turnout caucuses are there in the GE?

[Qutzupalotl]

54. Doesn't matter.

Obama will be the nominee.

Deal.

[jackson_dem]

57. It does matter if you are assessing electability

[Qutzupalotl]

61. The guy beating Clingon is electable.

[VolcanoJen]

65. Are you going to bring up Operation Chaos?

It was worth at least 4-5 points in Ohio and Texas. I think Indiana's open primary doesn't bode well for Obama, either... and living right next door, I know Indiana, and the Rush Effect.

It's disingenuous for Clinton supporters to constantly blow off the Rush Effect in these late-voting states. I'm not saying GOP crossover votes handed her victories, but they certainly padded her margin. I'm surrounded by wingnuts who still high-five each other over fucking around in our primary.

[Secret_Society]

38. If you look at this poll the resulted in a change in the metrics

In the poll which had Clinton +2 blacks only made up 25% of the electorate. This poll uses the metric other firms are using 33%. Either way it is clear that Obama's lead of around 20 points has been slashed to around 7. A 5 point victory will be huge for Clinton. If HRC only one PA by 5 the pundits would be calling for her to drop out.

[4_Legs_Good]

51. I hope he can keep it up. I want 20 points in NC

All these distractions better clear by Tuesday.

<10 points is not enough to seal the deal, just like the <10 points Clinton got in PA were not enough to make a difference.

David

[Zynx]

62. That's probably closer to the mark, but really he should be doing better than that

there.

[kmsarvis]

66. This poll is still underestimating African-American turnout.......

only 33% of those surveyed were African-American.It also has his AA support at under 80% which is unlikely. The amazing thing is that he has kept Clintons lead among white voters under 15%.That is no easy feat for a black candidate in NC.

[GoesTo11]

68. Will Obama be the Comeback Kid in NC?