BREAKING: 1st Zogby NC/IN tracking poll out-Obama up 16 in North Carolina-tied 42-42 in Indiana

[Tropics_Dude83]

I subscribe; this might not be available to the public yet.

Zogby Poll: Obama Holds Big Lead Over Clinton in NC; Pair tied in Indiana;
UTICA, New York  Five days before the important Democratic presidential primaries in North Carolina and Indiana, Barack Obama of Illinois enjoys a substantial lead in one state and remains tied with Hillary Clinton of New York in the other, a new Zogby daily tracking poll shows.

Obama leads by a 50% to 34% margin over Clinton in North Carolina, while the two are tied at 42% support each in Indiana.

The telephone surveys, conducted over two days, began on April 30 and were completed May 1. They comprise the first of Zogbys daily tracking surveys that will continue until Tuesday. In North Carolina, 668 likely Democratic primary election voters were polled. The survey carries a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points. In Indiana, 680 likely voting Democratic primary voters were surveyed. That poll carries a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.

The telephone surveys were conducted using live operators working out of Zogbys call center in Upstate New York.

In North Carolina, Obama dominates all age groups with one exception  those age 70 and older, where the two are essentially tied.

Democrats  North Carolina
4-30/5-1

Clinton
34%

Obama
50%

Someone else
8%

Not sure
8%


Clinton leads by 10 points among white voters in North Carolina  47% to 37% - but Obama dominates among African American voters, 73% to 10% for Clinton. Among men, Obama leads, 57% to 30%, and he leads among women voters as well  winning 44% support to Clintons 37% backing.

Asked if the statements of controversial Obama pastor Jeremiah Wright made voters more or less likely to support Obama, 15% of North Carolina voters said they were less likely to support him, while 4% said the comments made them more likely to support Obama.

In Indiana, the two Democrats were deadlocked at 42% each, with 16% either favoring someone else or yet undecided.

Democrats - Indiana
4-30/5-1

Clinton
42%

Obama
42%

Someone else
7%

Not sure
9%

[book_worm]

1. Thanks for the sneak peak (yeah, I know it's Zogby, but he pretty much got PA right)

[democrattotheend]

2. I don't trust Zogby that much, but this is slightly encouraging

Thanks for posting. If Obama can lose white voters by only 10 in NC that would be fantastic. I was surprised when I looked at the exit polls to see that he only lost white voters by 10 points in Georgia...I guess my boss was right when he said white voters in parts of PA and OH can be more racist than white voters in parts of the south.

[jbnow]

57. Look what Zogby called for PA and Texas

PA: Clinton +10
Texas: Clinton +3

[thevoiceofreason]

3. I can go to bed happy now. Thanks!

Glad to know a subscriber!

[Tropics_Dude83]

8. A result like this would go a long way to easing Obama electability concerns-n/t

[democrattotheend]

32. So if we get these results will you come back?

I understand your reasons for going to the Clinton camp, but I hope you will come back if he restores your faith in his electability. I know you got skittish before his race speech but then felt better after it, and you sounded like you were genuinely impressed with him. It's a shame to lose people who think he'd be the best president because of electability concerns, especially since bleeding support due to electability concerns becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy (the more people who defect, the weaker he looks, especially when he is being judged on his ability to appeal to white voters).

[Tropics_Dude83]

9. You're welcome:)-will do this every night between now and ST III

[thevoiceofreason]

18. Tropics - dude, we're ready to welcome you back.

You say when - I'll leave the light on for ya. And no snarky comments. At least from me. :)

[Aloha Spirit]

28. That's sweet! Thanks tropics dude.

[democrattotheend]

10. Me too. Best news I have heard all day.

And the dates of this poll are encouraging...maybe the worst is over. I don't trust Zogby but they did get PA right, and they were closer in South Carolina than other pollsters. It's enough to make me feel like the sky might not be falling, as I have felt all day.

[democrattotheend]

14. Actually, second best

A coworker scared the hell out of me before...I thought I overheard him saying something about Edwards endorsing Clinton. He has inside contacts so he might know something we don't. But I just talked to him and he said I misheard.

[scheming daemons]

4. So...Tropics.... does this mean you're about to switch teams again?

[futureliveshere]

5. This is awesome, but Zogby's record has really sucked this time.

This is more worrying than reassuring. But still, maybe this time Zogby will get it right.

:woohoo:

[thevoiceofreason]

13. Zogby nailed PA. -- Hillary by 10

He was closest of all.

Hopefully, he found his accuracy!

[futureliveshere]

66. Aye, hopefully.

Yes We Can!!!

[tokenlib]

6. The more polls the better...

..enough to confuse anyone. :)

[scheming daemons]

7. This poll is ENTIRELY after Obama's divorce from Wright..... shows that it played well...

...

[papau]

44. True - and if Obama takes both states it is over

[babylonsister]

11. Knowing you're now a Clinton supporter, thanks for sharing. Nice of you. nt

[my3boyz]

59. I agree! It was very nice of the OP to post it. nt

[BlueIdaho]

12. Thank you

For this honestly unbiased report.

[gateley]

15. Interesting --

Obama's numbers are all over the board in the NC polls recently. We'll have to wait until Tuesday to see what people REALLY feel.

Has it always been pretty much a tie in IN?

Thanks.

[bluestateguy]

16. Another fucking tracking poll?

Swell. I get to put up with this every day until Tuesday.

[Tribetime]

17. Tropics I figured a Obama

supporter would have posted this. Thanks

[book_worm]

19. here is some Zogby demos re: Indiana

arlier voting states, with Obama leading among younger voters and Clinton leading among older voters. A key middle-age demographic—those age 35 to 54—now favors Obama by a 48% to 41% margin in Indiana, but this demo turned out to be a key battleground in Pennsylvania, which has a somewhat similar population make-up.

Obama leads in northern Indiana, a large section of which is influenced by Obama's hometown Chicago media market. In the southern half of the state, which features a population much like that of Ohio next door, Clinton enjoys a double-digit lead. Obama enjoys an 11-point lead among Indiana men, while Clinton leads by seven points among women.

After getting clobbered among Catholics in Pennsylvania nearly two weeks ago, Obama wins 41% support from Indiana Catholics, compared to 40% who support Clinton. Conversely, Clinton leads among Protestants by six points after having lost among them in Pennsylvania.

Nearly three in four in Indiana—72%—said they held a positive overall view of Obama, compared to 68% who held a positive opinion of Clinton.

The statements of Rev. Wright have had more of an impact in Indiana than in North Carolina. In the Hoosier state, 21% of likely Democratic primary voters said they were less likely to vote for Obama as a result of his former pastor's statements.

There is clearly some disaffection within the Democratic electorate. Asked who they would support in a general election match-up between Clinton and McCain, 20% of Indiana Democratic voters said they would support McCain, while 21% said they would vote for McCain if he were running against Obama in the general election this fall. Asked about the same head-to-head general election match-ups, North Carolina voters were slightly less willing to cross party lines to support the Republican nominee—16% said they would vote for McCain in both the McCain-Clinton match-up and the McCain-Obama match-up.

For a detailed methodology statement on this survey, please visit:
http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1301

(5/2/2008)



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[woolldog]

20. LOL, I wanna know who those 4% are that are more likely to vote

for Obama b/c of Wright. :rofl:

[housewolf]

21. Wow - IN 42-42 is a HUGE undecided %

7% Someone else

9% Not sure

16% still to decide between Clinton & Obama... that could turn it either way



(edited to correct to the right state)

[woolldog]

25. it's indiana that's 42-42

[housewolf]

39. Thanks, I fixed it

must have been momentarily cross-eyed or something....

Thanks for the heads-up

[thewiseguy]

22. and why is this good news for Hillary? or you switched again?

[thevoiceofreason]

23. Be nice. Big tent, remember?

[democrattotheend]

27. I think the OP posted this as a courtesy

Tropics said he (or she...I am guessing he from the dude part) subscribes to Zogby and gets an early peek, so he intends to post this every night, whatever the numbers are.

[Wes87]

24. Listening to the O-bot go crazy about a Zogby poll...HAHA!

[cali]

58. bitter much?

Zogby nailed BOTH PA and TX. Why wouldn't his polls be worth looking at? He was less than 1 point off re PA and dead on, I believe, on TX. Of course, I understand this isn't great news for you, so of course you want to pretend that Zogby is the worst pollster ever who has never polled accurately. Except the last two dem contests.

[RainDog]

26. kicking. thanks for posting!

[Robbins]

33. Zogby

He has been wrong but also right.Assuming he is on the right way Obama's divorce from Wright Is
helping him go back up In North Carolana and making It close again In Indiana.

[Lord Helmet]

29. ha ha I guess Obama really is made of teflon

quiet strength

[malik flavors]

30. Wow, thanks for the post Tropics. I'm glad we can all share good news about each others candidate

from time to time.

Hopefully Indiana really is this close. Will make for an exciting Tuesday night.

I was suprised that Zogby nailed PA, we'll see how they do this time around.

[democrattotheend]

34. Their nightly tracking polls have actually been pretty good. And they may have tweaked their formula

for turnout so that it no longer overestimates Obama.

They did nightly tracking in SC and got it closer than the other pollsters. I know they messed up California but I don't believe that was a nightly tracking poll. They messed up Ohio but got Texas right, and they got PA dead on.

[powergirl]

31. Thanks for the post Tropicsdude

:toast:

[stillcool]

35. thanks!

[nsd]

36. Thanks for the advance look. /nt

[Dbdmjs1022]

37. THIS makes me happy! And Zogby's been reliable in the past few. GObama!

[IrishBloodEngHeart]

38. lets hope Zogby is finally getting it right

those numbers are very encouraging.

[thewiseguy]

41. Zogby finally got it right in Pennsylvania

I was very critical of their Pen poll but it turned out accurate.

[BenDavid]

40. This poll flys in the face of many other reputable polls w/ HRC leading

[malik flavors]

42. Most reputable polls had Penn closer than it was though, and Zogby got it right.

I'm not saying this is going to hold true, but I wouldn't discount it too fast.

This might be the first poll out since Obama disowned Rev. Wright, which could account for a slight bounce in his numbers.

[Gore1FL]

43. polls are merely a snap shot

What happens Tuesday counts.

It is reasonable to assume Obama wins NC,and IN is close.

[Upton]

63. These polls were taken after Obama severed ties with Wright

[rhombus]

45. Nice. We arise!

[democrattotheend]

46. As a subscriber, do you get more details? I want to know the racial breakdown.

It says how the candidates are doing among black and white voters, but do you know what percentage African Americans make up in each state in this poll?

[DerekJ]

47. We’ve seen enough polls to know, none of them are accurate.

[DemVet]

65. Finally....

...something I can agree with you.

:)

[TexanDem]

48. This is good news! Thanks for the heads up. K&R

[Frank Booth]

49. The bar's already been set at a 2% HRC win in NC.

If Obama can get within 1%, or (do I dare say it) actually win North Carolina, that would be huge.

Anything less than a 12 point margin for HRC in Indiana is a complete and utter failure.

[RiverStone]

50. Considering the MSM's feeding frenzy on Wright...

On balance, good news for Obama!

Thanks for sharing :hi:

[Roxy66]

51. Great news!!

[usregimechange]

52. Thanks for posting, do you have regional breakdowns or crosstabs?

[GetTheRightVote]

53. Thank you for the update, I hope he wins in all the states so we can start fighting the repubs

[2rth2pwr]

54. Zogby's no good until maybe the day before.

[JCMach1]

55. Zogby has had bad results all season- I would suggest

looking elsewhere for your info.

[jackson_dem]

56. Zogby is the new ARG. When is the last time Zogby has got it right?

To ARG's credit they have been solid since February. Zogby had Obama tied in Ohio, winning California, and overestimated him in Pennsylvania.

[book_worm]

60. ARG solid since FEB? better check again--ZOGBY had it right in PA and ARG was off

ARG final poll overestimated Clinton 56-40 and Zogby had it within 10--51-41.

Here:
http://www.pollster.com/08-PA-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

[marions ghost]

61. kick

interesting that some (NC) said they were more likely to support Obama as a result of Rev Wright crap. Some people may actually see the gross unfairness of that kind of swiftboating and make a point about it with their vote.

[Upton]

62. This is good news I just wish I trusted Zogby more

[mmonk]

64. Thanks (from those of us that don't follow the polling real closely)

[Bigleaf]

67. Kicking.