Number Crunchers - can you help me out?

[RainDog]

just to say at the start of this post -

I do not accept the idea that states who go against the current DNC rules should suddenly get to change them when it's beneficial to ANY candidate. To do so is the equivalent of changing the rules of a game to try to win when you would gladly follow those rules if you weren't already losing. This is not disenfranchisement and anyone who cannot get that... go find another thread to fuss on, please.

that said...

Yesterday Howard Dean said that he wanted one candidate or the other to leave the race by June. I assume this hasn't changed overnight... I haven't been all over the news today, so pardon me if I'm out of the loop.

However, given Dean's statement - unless superdelegates override the primary and caucus votes, how can Hillary get enough delegate votes to be the nominee? (again, I am not factoring in the FL/MI issue since they chose to take themselves out of the race.) It is my understanding, which may be wrong so please explain otherwise, that statistically, or in terms of probability-projections there is no way Hillary can win enough delegates to overtake Obama in the remaining primaries.

If this is incorrect, please provide the information for me to adjust my reality. thanks.

[IDemo]

1. Here you go-->

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5730460&mesg_id=5730460

edit to add -- link to the math thread was not intended to imply I believe Hillary has any chance of capturing enough delegates to remain (or become) viable. All of the current numbers are shown, along with most of the scenarios.

[RainDog]

6. thanks!

[dmallind]

2. Two issues with that

And I say this as someone who voted for, and prefers still, Obama.

NEITHER candidate is even vaguely likely to get enough pledged delegates to win outright without supers.

Superdelegates do not "override" any thing. There are only delegates, who all vote at the same time, and 2025 of whom are needed to win. Some of these delegates are superdelegates but they are not intended to be a rubber stamp after the "real" delegates vote or anything like that. They are merely delegates selected by the party who is after all the organization doing the nominating. They vote right there along with pledged delegates.

The whole reason FOR the superdelegates is to balance popular vote with political insider/party activist votes. Their whole reason for being is expressly NOT to rubber stamp pledged delegates.

EDIT - so to answer your last point Hillary does not need to overtake Obama in pledged delegates at all. She has to simply persuade enough of the non-pledged delegates to vote for hey. This would not be overriding diddly. It would not be playing fast with the rules. It would not be antidemocratic. It would be in accordance with rules in place for decades., let alone when both these folks signed up to run.

It is however very unlikely IMO. The superdelegates are much more likely to follow popular opinion, and Obama leads in all meaningful categories there. The drift of superdelegates to him is likely to continue and accelerate if he does not implode for some weird reason. I suspect even if this does go to copnvention (I'd say less than a 50-50 shot) Obama is likely to win in first round voting.

[rock]

4. I think you have a grip on reality n/t

[RainDog]

5. I don't think my post addressed superdelegates at all

Dean said that by June, after the primaries are over, someone should drop out if one or the other doesn't have enough delegates to win the nomination... whether those are supers or primary delegates.

I asked specifically about vote/caucus delegates because they are part of the primaries.

However, to address the last sentence in your post, Dean, the current Dean of the DNC, said the primary should not go to the convention. He was stating a position as the leader of the party that the party did not want this to go to convention. I assume that superdelegates will step in at that point to stop a convention fight. we can only see about that one, tho.

so, really, my post was asking about primaries with already pledged supers too, since they now count. unpledged supers don't mean anything at this point, as far as looking at a June situation. When a super pledges, then they count. does that make sense?

[dmallind]

9. Well kinda still comes down to them

Nobody is going to have enough pledged delegates, even counting pledged supers, to win by June unless the supers almost all make their mind up by then. Even if they do a superdelegate is never really "pledged" - just expressing a present opinion. We've had plenty of switches (all that I can remember have been to Obama) already.

If your point is "the supers should make their damned minds up" then I agree - but that does not entail anything about overriding etc as I responded earlier.

[Toucano]

11. But it did.

"...unless superdelegates override the primary and caucus votes..."

[RainDog]

12. by that I was trying to eliminate them from my question

I should have worded it better.

And as far as all the superdelegate remarks here... what I was trying to get at are those voting/caucus trends that ppl have tracked thus far.

As far as the overall issue, maybe I'm reading too much into it all, but what I took away from what Dean said was this: let the primaries have their votes. If the numbers, by June, do not put one candidate over the top, one of them should drop out. If one of them does not drop out, I thought Dean was giving his opinion that, by June, superdelegates should stop the primary from going to the convention by putting one candidate or another over the top.

again, maybe I'm interpreting his remarks far beyond their intent...and so, my question posted here.

[Toucano]

8. I should have read your post before I posted down thread.

You said it much better than I.

[FlyingSquirrel]

3. Hmmm interesting question

Hillary has: 1336 Pledged, 259 Supers, 1595 total.

Hillary needs: 429 more.

Pledged delegates remaining: 408. Superdelegates remaining: 296.

Total remaining: 704

Hillary needs: 60.94% of all remaining delegates and superdelegates

Assuming that no current superdelegates or pledged delegates somehow change sides.

-----

Best case scenario (in all probability) for Hillary in remaining primaries: 55% of delegates = 224

429 - 224 = 205 out of 296 remaining Superdelegates needed for her. (69.26%)

-----

Good enough?

[Toucano]

7. Super delegates would not be "overriding" anything.

That's a fundamental misunderstanding of the way it works.

An unpledged delegate is just that: an unpledged delegate. Their vote has to be earned like every other delegate.

If Clinton can earn those votes, she will have the nomination. If Obama earns those votes, he will have the nomination.

[crimsonblue]

10. NO.