Obama Supporters: Don't Despair. Wright isn't Fatal at all to his candidacy.

[JasonHill]

Despite these manufactured controversies predicated on a guilt-by-association, history has shown that Obama has always rebounded from them and there is no reason to assume he won't continue to do so. After the initial shock of Wright in March, Obama's numbers climbed up to pre-Wright levels less than a month later. After all the mud that has been thrown, Obama is still standing and still winning.

Wright is mostly a primary "issue". His rival for the Dem nomination, the Repub nom, and the media in general have spent much capital pushing this because of various vested interests, and he is still standing and winning. Not to say that Wright isn't newsworthy, he is for the fact that so much capital is invested into him makes him an issue, but all this hullabaloo is just pandering histrionics imo that will recede when the general arrives and the party is unified under him to push back and focus on a cohesive message. There may be a lingering impact among indie and repub whites hurting his crossover appeal, but nothing shows that this thing is any way a campaign killer either now or in the general.

Look at the Numbers: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

Obama is winning by 136 total delegates. Hillary's last real chance at the nom, a needed blowout in Penn, netted her only 10 delgates.
Hillary is down by 156 pledged delegates to Obama and needs to win 69% of the remaining vote to overtake him in elected Delegates. She cannot do that.
Hillary needs 500,000 votes to overtake him in the Popular vote which doesn't have any legal baring but helps to consolidate the base under a nominee.
She cannot do that.

The only way Hillary can win is to push the remaining 295 supers to vote for her against the will of the voters as determined by ballot, which was established through the legal construct of an elected Delegate Primary process which she agreed to beforehand. The establishment as a whole, especially now with the recession of the DLC at the epicenter of the party platform, will not let the will of the voters be tossed aside to their own detriment simply for an entrenched power base that has lost much influence over the years due to a failure in creating a sustainable liberal movement (hell, even a centrist movement) which led to the rise of the Repubs controlling all 3 branches after 8 years of executive DLC triangulation.

So what i'm trying to say is cheer up! Obama is winning and will win if we remain unified. We are the only ones that can allow Hillary to override voter will by backing down to the pressure applied by her and her surrogates.

[ecdab]

1. All we are getting from the Hillary camp is the message that

we should allow the Republicans to pick our nominee, we should allow the racist to pick our nominee, we should allow the flag pin patriot to pick our nominee. Those folks don't want Obama - and there is nothing to the case being made by the Hillary camp other than a plea to appease those people and the claim that she can get some of their votes.

We are watching that which worst in this society unit against Obama - that real doesn't come as a surprise to me. The only thing which has surprised me a bit is watching many fellow Democrats embrace that which is worst in this society.

As a party - we can choose to fight or we can choose to fold.

Hillary goes out every day and claims she is a fighter - but at the same makes the case that we should fold in the face of cheap GOP theatrics, that we should fold in the face of racism, that we should fold in the face of flag pin patriots. Folks, that isn't fighting, it isn't even close. And if Hillary is willing to cave into such issues now, why would anybody believe she would do more later?

[izzie]

2. I hope you are right on this.

Wright's talk on blow back, like the well known book of that name, hits home to me. Any thing one does has results. The nuts of 911 used it. I do not think I can go the ego of Wright. I think he is cashing in all of this with Obama. If Obama can make a million with his book I guess Wright wants to get his million with his book and to hell with how people think about it. Obama may have been a lot kinder to Wright than his Pastor has been to Obama. I do not get the thing about the 'black church' thing at all. Most of what Wright said is in any good history book. we just do not like to hear it. The UCC does push social things. Heck I have run into Indian men who came from schools they set up in India.

[BzaDem]

3. You are saying he is still winning, but you are citing pre-March numbers to do so.

You can't say he rebounds back and keeps winning... when Hillary has come ahead in delegates since WI. In reality, Wright is hurting him, and there is no evidence that Obama has rebounded from the issue. And if you think Wright is mostly a primary issue... well, I should probably stop writing now, since you can't even predict the blatantly obvious.

[JasonHill]

4. That isn't how an election works

Total votes are counted, not votes after a certain time. "Winning" means having the total votes, both through elected delegates and primary voters. What i said was that there is already a precedent to look toward that has shown that these manufactured guilt-by-association attacks have had no long-term impact on voters willing to vote for him, as his ability to rebound from the initial push to smear him through Wright has shown. As for my speaking of Wright being a primary "issue", i said that with regard to voter impact and not the political capital being invested in him being a neg. Of course Repubs will go at him over Wright, but the difference is that now the party is fractured during a contested primary where one candidate benefits from the Wright smear which is why he is being pushed along the same angle as the Repubs.

[chelsea0011]

5. I've become bemused by all this. So attending church can now be

a detriment to candidate for President?

[ShortnFiery]

6. DLC triangulation? You got that right!

:thumbsup:

I went with my family to Mass again this past Sunday afternoon. Aside from viewing the unconditional love of the precious baby's parents, Mass is sadly one dimensional.

Don't get me wrong, I love our Parish Priest and, not unlike Obama's tolerance, I did not quit my liberal Parish a year ago when the senior Priest was force to resign due to "exposing himself" in the local area.

A Church, ANY CHURCH is much more than their Pastor. Our Church is a Community and although our Priest are often intimidated into giving "benign parables" instead of Rev. Wright's "social gospel" I would not leave it for the world because WE ARE A COMMUNITY who give and receive from each other.

I'm saddened by this false sense of hype-patriotism. Although I'm an Army Veteran, I don't "feign indignation" at Rev. Wright saying "God Damn America" because if you listen on, he's IMO, appropriately CENSORING US ... because "She (USA govt) thinks She IS GOD!?!

Newsflash fellow Patriotic Americans: :patriot: The United States of America is NOT GOD. I love my Country more than words can say, but I will NOT "wrap myself in a The Flag" and self-righteously condemn ANYONE who's past 35 years of behavior has gleaned a ministry that provides love and support for so many others.

Rev. Wright's good deeds speaks to his true service to GOD.

Sometimes I feel that Jesus must weep for Our Country ... what it was ... what it could be ... what it has degraded to now under Corporate Rule. IMO, if God is to rightly Bless our Nation, we have to "take it back" from the corporate special interests.

We've lost our tolerance for dissent in this toxic post 9/11 mindset. It's time for the "mature adults" to once again take the reigns of our beautiful Nation. I'm doing my individual best to support The Obama Campaign because he's our LAST BEST HOPE.

[FrenchieCat]

7. Thank you.

I needed that!

And you are correct.

[Hippo_Tron]

8. Wright was pretty much inevitable for any black candidate

If not his preacher, there would have inevitably be some "scary black man" that the candidate would be associated with and the Republicans would exploit that to the fullest extent.

We're going to find out if America is truly ready for a black president.

[RBInMaine]

10. Right ! This is the ultimate vetting, sad to say. They were going to make his race an issue somehow.

[RBInMaine]

9. They are struggling to use race in this primary to stop Obama. His message "IT is about YOU" is the

right counter to this sad argument. He needs to spin it around on them, stay focused on the bread and butter issues. Talk about his working class/middle class credentials. Talk about HIS patriotism. RISE above this politics of destruction and make the opposition look like they are down in the gutter with this. Again, IT IS ABOUT THE PEOPLE, not Wright, not the candidates, THE PEOPLE.

[ErinBerin84]

11. lol, WTF

Good Morning America just came on, and Barbara Walters cited new polls saying Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama were neck and neck...and then said "And we have Newt Gingridge on this morning to talk about it!"

Newt?!!! Come on. At least they didn't open up with Wright stuff. I was pretty young in the 90s, but I remember having enough sense to hate Newt even back then. It would be interesting to talk to younger voters and see how much THEY remember of the "right wing conspiracy" ( I remember when Howard Wolfson compared Obama to Kenn Starr, a bunch of pundits were like "the young people don't know who he is." UM, I wouldn't count on that. Bad memories).

[barack the house]

12. Exactly this all had to get worked through before GE . I doubt Wright will get a mic by that time.

[azmouse]

13. kick