Its over regarding Pledged Delegates - only 412 remaining with 150 difference

[LSK]

There are now only 412 pledged delegates remaining including Guam. Obama has a 150 pledged delegate lead.

Guam 4
IN 72
NC 116
WV 28
KY 52
OR 52
PR 56
MT 16
SD 16
412

Assuming Guam, Indiana and North Carolina cancel each other out, Obama would be up 150 delegates with 220 remaining.

Hillary would have to gain 150 delegates out of WV, KY, OR, PR, MT and SD and she is not favored in all those states.

Hillary is looking at splitting the remaining states 185 to 35 in her favor. Hillary would need 84% of the remaining pledged delegates after May 6 to make up her 150 delegate deficit. IMPOSSIBLE.

Its over with the pledged delegates, Barack Obama will be headed into Denver with the lead given to him by the people.

http://www.slate.com/id/2185278 - source for delegate #s.


edit: MI & FL

In FL, Hillary got 50%, Obama 33%, Edwards 14%, DK 1%. Assuming Edwards vote is split 50/50, that gives us Hillary 57 - Obama 40. Split the remaining in favor of Hillary for a 59-41 win. That gives her 33 out of FL.

33 delegates for Hillary out of FL making the difference 117.

Hillary got 55% in Michigan. Assuming Obama gets the rest, thats a difference of 12 delegates.

That gives us an Obama lead of 105. Hillary would have to make up 105 delegates out of 220, meaning a split of 106 - 57 or 74% of those remaining states.

[jackson_dem]

1. All this assumes FL and MI will be disefranchised by Obama's cronies at the credentials committee...

You do realize if FL gets in and MI gets in with uncommitted going to Obama (which gives him Edwards' votes too) the delegate lead is down to 64 as of right now...

[DJ13]

2. You need to face facts.... Neither Florida nor Michigan will count

They will be seated, AFTER the nominee is chosen.

Grow up Hillary.

[DemVet]

13. Welcome to pissing off 10% of the NATIONAL Democratic electorate for the GE

Maybe losing FL and MI in the GE doesn't bother you?

edit...typo

[LSK]

15. Michigan has been hit worse economically, there is no way we loose it

[DemVet]

28. Uh huh....I'm not so cocky as to think like that.

Saying certain states are in the bag is how we got our butts beat in 2004.

[LSK]

33. and the DLC "ignore half the country" philosophy had nothing to do with it?

:shrug:

[DemVet]

35. Yeah....that's what I'm saying.

[Milo_Bloom]

20. LMAO... oh please, the average voter doesn't care

or know.

[DemVet]

29. Yeah....let's just call the average voter stupid while we're at it.

You think the GOP isn't going to "remind" them?

[Milo_Bloom]

36. The average voter IS stupid.

And the reality is that they care about this idiotic issue.

The state party got into a fight with the national party. Do you really think the average voter gives a damn?

[DemVet]

37. Yes....when it is "pointed out" to them that they've been screwed over.

[Milo_Bloom]

38. LMAO... "screwed over".

You gotta be kidding me.

They don't care. Even the average stupid voter understands that the primary is a party process and that the person they voted for may not get the nomination.

Ultimately, they will make a decision between Obama and McCain and whether their voted "counted" in the primary will be of absolutely no concern, no matter how many times they are reminded.

I can only WISH that the GOP would waste money reminding people of something they don't give a damn about.

[wileedog]

25. Please

Less than half of registered voters typically go the Primaries. The rest barely understand what is going on with this.

And probably only fraction of those that did vote are irritated enough to actually stay at home or pull the lever for a Republican. Especially in Michigan where the last thing they are going to go for is a continuation of Bush's economic policies with McSame.

This is an empty threat from a small vocal minority of Hillary supporters trying to bully their way into influencing a lost election - just like FL and MI tried to bully their way to the front of the line in the first place.

Fail.

[DemVet]

30. Yeah...they barely understand. Another one who thinks the average voter is stupid.

Where do you people come up with this crap?

edit...typo.

[wileedog]

34. Not stupid - unmotivated. The average voter does not even show up for Primaries

And you are arguing with me that they will be so angry over a vote they didn't even show up for not counting they will vote for McCain?

Crap, indeed.

This is scare tactic bullshit, nothing more. In MI, 300,000 people voted for Hillary in an *OPEN* primary.

That is 3% of the Michigan population. A percentage of those people were probably not even Democrats, and only a small percentage of those people really care so much that they are going to switch their vote to someone who would be an utter nightmare for their economically devastated state.

In FL, 800,000 people voted for Hillary or 4.4% of the population, and only 17% of the Registered Democrat population in FL. Again, only a small percentage of those people are going to be so upset as to change their party affiliation. This is not some statewide crisis and angry mob with torches and pitchforks roaming around these two states, its a small group of people trying to influence an election their candidate has lost.

[LSK]

3. where does your math come from??? I get 105

Hillary got 50%, Obama 33%, Edwards 14%, DK 1%. Assuming Edwards vote is split 50/50, that gives us Hillary 57 - Obama 40. Split the remaining in favor of Hillary for a 59-41 win. That gives her 33 out of FL.

33 delegates for Hillary out of FL making the difference 117.

Hillary got 55% in Michigan. Assuming Obama gets the rest, thats a difference of 12 delegates.

That gives us an Obama lead of 105.

[dbmk]

6. Its kinda true.

While cronies is of course a matter of opinion, it will be Obama that controls the dredentials comittee as his campaign will have the majority there.

[LSK]

12. he was not friends with them BEFORE they made the rules about FL and MI

[dbmk]

39. Not sure I understand your point

The committee that made and enforced the rules is not the credentials commitee at the convention.
That will, to a very large extent afaik, be seated according to pledged delegates, by the candidates.

[jackson_dem]

10. Read all the FL/MI scenarions here

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/03/florida-and-michigan-by-numbers.html

Here is the real scary one for Obama supporters: FL and MI get in as is. That would cut the delegate lead to 12 with blowouts in WV and KY coming up...

[LSK]

11. see my edit, your math is WRONG.

[jackson_dem]

19. Wrong

You are excluding superdelegates to beef up Obama's margin to start with and then exclude the Fl MI supers who would get in if the states are enfranchised. His delegate lead is 133 right now. Florida nets Clinton 38 (Edwards did not reach the 15% threshold in many districts). That cuts the lead to 95. Edwards would get 14. The website has the margin down to 67 if MI gets in with uncommitted being given to Obama. That is certainly plausible. For one that includes the supers that get in. You are also forgetting that most delegates are allocated based on congressional districts, not statewide vote. It is certainly conceivable that Clinton would net 28 out of Michigan since "uncommitted" won only two congressional districts in Michigan.

[LSK]

22. what supers??? nobody is talking about them in this thread - the lead is 150

:wtf:

[FlaGranny]

27. Understand though that they don't

WANT Obama to get the "uncommitted" Michigan vote, just the Clinton vote. After all, you know, Obama was not on the ballot. That's how fair they want to be.

[JackORoses]

4. you do realize that FL and MI will have no bearing on choosing the Nominee, right?

However, once Obama is officially the Nominee, he will seat those delegations at the convention.
It will not help Lil' Hilly, though.

[jackson_dem]

7. Says who? Has Obama disenfranchised them yet at the credentials committee? When was the convention?

[JackORoses]

18. says the DNC

they could have held revotes, but it wouldn't have given Hillary the advantage she needed so that was no good.

Face it, if you are pinning all your hopes on MI and FL, you really are not facing reality.

[jackson_dem]

21. The DNC credentials committee met? I thought the convention is months away?

[JackORoses]

23. This is sad. You know Hillary has no shot without MI and FL.

Yet you also know that the DNC will never accept the results of the flawed primaries held there.

In the end, their delegations will likely be seated, but they will not determine the Nominee.

You are smart enough to realize this, but you are too emotionally invested in Hillary to be objective about it.

FL and MI will not save Hillary's Presidential aspirations.

[LSK]

24. who made the rules for this primary??? do they make rules AFTER THE FACT???

NO

[dchill]

5. FL and MI will be "disefranchised" by ...

the RULES of the Democratic National Committee. Their defiant state committees will be disenfranchised, a portion their delegates will be seated. And that will be overly fair.

"It's clear these elections they're having aren't going to count for anything." - Hillary Clinton, on Michigan and Florida primaries.

Grasp.

[Occam Bandage]

9. They were "disenfranchised" by their idiotic state parties, who explicitly agreed to

their own punishments.

Oh, and neither Edwards nor Obama had votes in MI. Hillary was the only major candidate on the ballot. You want to seat MI and FL? Hold a legitimate election.

[undeterred]

26. EXACTLY.

[cali]

14. They won't be. Those delegations will be seated at the Convention

which will be as is usual, a formality. SDs have made it clear that they'll endorse in sufficient numbers to put one over the top by June. That will be Obama. It's over hillbot.

[ihelpu2see]

31. Disenfranchised by Who?? there own state parties thats who Not Sen. Obama.

And I seem to remember Sen Clinton saying that we all knew that they would not count...

[mmonk]

8. Math it's so hard.

[gsaguyCLW54]

16. so how many more pledged delegates does Obama need to get to 2025?

[LSK]

17. neither candidate can get to 2025 unless the other drops out

So thats irrelevant at this point. The supers will have to make up the difference and Hillary only has a 20 SD lead last I saw.

[Khaotic]

32. The Math, the Math, the Math

Isn't it great!

The rules at the beginning of the race are the same as they are now.

The race was constructed using delegates. That's how the nominee is chosen.

As it has been stated, if the MSM were able to "call it," then Obama would be the presumptive winner.

His magic number stands at 133 and could be down to 33 before W.V.