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I like Obama, if he wins the nomination I will vote for Obama, but....

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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 07:36 AM
Original message
I like Obama, if he wins the nomination I will vote for Obama, but....
...all of you Obama supporters who insist that Clinton is beaten or should step aside can't see the forrest for the trees. There's a very good chance that Obama will lose PA, OH, FLA, MI, WI & MN.....states where many of his comments about "bitter" and "clinging to guns" will be brought up every day. I am sorry to tell you this, but Obama will not beat McCain.
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tekisui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 07:37 AM
Response to Original message
1. He won't lose WI or MN.
And I don't think he will lose PA or OH.

He can and will beat McDubya.
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Tyler Durden Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 07:40 AM
Response to Reply #1
6. Not if he loses Michigan.
If he is good enough to do as well as GORE (and that was actually pretty good, considering he actually WON), but loses Michigan, then he loses the election.

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Spider Jerusalem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 07:42 AM
Response to Reply #6
8. And he outpolls Clinton AND McCain in Michigan, so...do you have a point?
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 07:55 AM
Response to Reply #8
15. he out polls right now....that will change. Take it to the bank.
Edited on Thu Apr-24-08 07:57 AM by gsaguyCLW54
He polls maybe 2-3 percent above right now. When they start the "bitter" campaign, say good bye to MI.
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joeybee12 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 09:05 AM
Response to Reply #15
52. You're right...and what happened to his 6-7 point lead nationally
over McCain a few weeks back? Voters are fickle, and a week in politics is a lifetime...they start hammering away from him and he still doesn't have an effective defense, then he will go down big time.
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 10:08 AM
Response to Reply #52
55. Good point.
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Tyler Durden Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 11:00 AM
Response to Reply #8
66. Spider, I never see those polls.
What I do see is an entire PLANT full of people headed for the Unemployment Line who have yet to hear ANYTHING from Obama locally regarding their jobs and their lives.

If you stay with the "POLLS," you're likely to be disappointed.

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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 11:35 AM
Response to Reply #66
85. Apples and Oranges
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 08:04 AM
Response to Reply #1
21. Yeah, because he's behind McCain in most recent polls?
I'll eat crow infront of the entire crowd if I am wrong.....what will you have to say when we lose states we are supposed to win. People here have short memories and if they think Clinton is giving Obama a hard time, wait till the Republican machine gets involved.
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RichGirl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 08:52 AM
Response to Reply #1
46. Not if he has already....
said that McCain is better than Dubya!! In his attempt to cozy up to republicans, he is destroying every point we have against them. Someone needs to tell him that he can cozy up to them AFTER he wins the presidency, not before.
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Chulanowa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 10:49 AM
Response to Reply #46
64. I see your Hillary avatar...
Are you aware the openly endorsed McCain over Obama? Or did that little fact fly under your radar?
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electropop Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 09:48 AM
Response to Reply #1
53. All he has to do is show that McLame is even worse than Bushco
McLame can't tell the difference between Shiite and Shinola
McLame wants to turn Iraq into the 100 Years War
McLame wants to start a 3rd war in the Middle East (Iran)
McLame is one of the Keating 5 - truly massive corruption scandal
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 10:10 AM
Response to Reply #53
56. is this your first Presidential Election?
because you dont appear to have a clue. if you think for one second that any Obama message will be heard when Rev. Wright commercials are on TV everyday, then you dont understand this electorate.
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electropop Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 02:20 PM
Response to Reply #56
116. It's my 7th.
And yes, I've seen a few surprises in that time. There's winning the votes, and there's having them counted for example. I do think though that repeated replays of McLame's "Bomb Iran" song, his "screwup" re: Iran and Al Qaeda, and his 100 years war clip would generate some fear factor. The voiceover would say, "John McCain is a bloodthirsty maniac. He is a terrible danger to America. He will get us all killed!"
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Bake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 01:46 PM
Response to Reply #53
107. But he's already said McLame would be better than Bush ...
So I guess that would make him a flip-flopper.

Bake
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democrattotheend Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 10:14 AM
Response to Reply #1
59. He actually polls better against McCain in WI and MN than Clinton
Check out today's Rasmussen poll from Minnesota. Obama has a double-digit lead, while Clinton has a much narrower lead. And a SUSA poll a couple weeks ago showed Obama winning Wisconsin and Clinton losing. He polls better in Iowa against McCain as well...he seems to do better in all of the swing states in the upper midwest. The Rust Belt seems a little tougher for him, and that is a valid concern.
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 11:29 AM
Response to Reply #1
82. Food for thought
Michigan Barack Obama John McCain Apr 08 6 43% 41% EPIC-MRA
Michigan Barack Obama John McCain Mar 25 1 42% 43% Rasmussen
Michigan Barack Obama John McCain Mar 10 1 41% 44% Rasmussen
Michigan Barack Obama John McCain Feb 28 3 46% 45% SurveyUSA
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LakeSamish706 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 07:38 AM
Response to Original message
2. And you know all of this because? n/t
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 07:58 AM
Response to Reply #2
16. Because I read books and stuff about voting patterns and trends
and am not blinded as most Obama supporters are.
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boobooday Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 07:38 AM
Response to Original message
3. Yes he will beat McCain
Look at voter registrations and vote totals from the primaries.

Bush-lite is not going to win this time.
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 11:37 AM
Response to Reply #3
87. I am very familiar with the numbers.....
......and if thats what you want to pin your hopes on, by all means do so. When the attacks start, which they will, Obama will be toast.
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boobooday Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-25-08 07:16 AM
Response to Reply #87
120. edit: never mind
Edited on Fri Apr-25-08 07:17 AM by boobooday
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nebula Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 07:39 AM
Response to Original message
4. The polls say he will beat McCain
they also say Hillary will not. Sorry!
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 08:09 AM
Response to Reply #4
24. show me your polls.........
because tracking polls have McCain ahead of both candidates, and numerous polls show McCain within reach of Obama in MI (2%), ahead of him in OH (+4), within 2% in NJ.....need links?>
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bowens43 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 07:40 AM
Response to Original message
5. He certainly has a better chance of beating McCain then hillary does.
He can carry any state that hillary could carry and some that she can't.
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 07:59 AM
Response to Reply #5
17. nonsense.....go look at the polls.....
Against Clinton, McCain will be lucky to reach 225.....against Obama the "bradley" effect will doom him. Remember in November that I told you this now. Make sure to save this thread. I know I will.
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scheming daemons Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 07:41 AM
Response to Original message
7. "I am sorry to tell you this, but Obama will not beat McCain."

There's no objective analysis of the electorate, or of any poll, that would indicate that is the case.


You're buying the Rovian spin.



Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, with 60% of the population calling her "untrustworthy", cannot win. THAT is an objective fact. Nobody with 60% negatives can win against Pol Pot, let alone John McCain.
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 08:12 AM
Response to Reply #7
26. OK.....lets look at this....
Florida Hillary Clinton John McCain Apr 10 1 45% 44% Rasmussen
Florida Barack Obama John McCain Apr 10 1 38% 53% Rasmussen

Ohio Hillary Clinton John McCain Apr 13 3 53% 42% SurveyUSA
Ohio Barack Obama John McCain Apr 13 3 45% 47% SurveyUSA

Just for starters.....and McCain hasnt even started campaigning against Obama yet. I'm telling you, you're all living a dream if you think Obama can win white middle class voters.
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GOTV Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 08:29 AM
Response to Reply #26
34. You're extrapolating from now through November? Ok.....
.... I guess nothing is likely to happen between now and then anyway...
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 09:02 AM
Response to Reply #34
51. Im not extrapolating anything.
I'm saying that issues that have not impacted Obama amongst Democratic Voters are going to hurt him very badly in states we should win easily. The business with the Rev. Wright and the "bitter" and "clinging" commnents are not going to play well in MI, OH, PA, WI, MN.......

remember how the Republicans took a vietnam veteran and turned him into a weak flip flopper......this one will be even easier, because of Obama's skin color. Call me cynical, but thats how I see it.

I pray I am wrong.
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GOTV Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 10:58 AM
Response to Reply #51
65. You made a prediction about November supported by April polls - I read your post
You think April polls tell us about November.

Yes, you did extrapolate from April to November in the post I responded to.
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 11:43 AM
Response to Reply #65
88. Let me talk slowly for you.....
My point was that many of these states where Democrats would be expected to win are very close, and the attacks havent even started yet. Negative attacks work and they are coming. Get ready for the "bitter" voters, the "clinging" to religion" ads and of course the Rev. Wright ads.
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GOTV Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 11:54 AM
Response to Reply #88
92. Changing the subject? You posted April polls to support your claim - keep pretending you didn't...
... I'm not interested in the rest until you come clean.
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 12:03 PM
Response to Reply #92
95. I posted april polls to demonstrate how close it is, without the attacks having even started.
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 07:42 AM
Response to Original message
9. First of all, Obama currently polls better in MI against McCain
than Clinton. Same with MN and WI. Secondly, Peter Hart disagrees with you and thinks he's at least as electable as Hillary. I think he's a tad bit more credible than you. I'm sure you agree that his expertise is far greater than yours. And he thinks Obama can win against McCain, Debbie Downer.
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 08:02 AM
Response to Reply #9
19. Obama polls 43% in a state that Kerry won with almost 52%....
wait till the "bitter" and "clinging to guns and antipathy" ads start running.
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 08:12 AM
Response to Reply #19
27. wait til we actually have a nominee. wait til people
are in worse shape because of this catastrophic economy and can't see how to feed their families or keep them warm. Wait til the dems start running ads about McCain's lack of any economic help for working people and his support for tax cuts for the wealthy. there's rarely just one side to things.
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 08:59 AM
Response to Reply #27
50. More than anything in the world....
...I pray you are right. But the message of CHANGE will be drowned out by Reverend Wright, William Ayers, "bitter", "clinging to guns and antipathy". Obama's errors havent hurt him among Dems, but are going to kill him in the general. Sorry, its just what I think and feel.
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NJmaverick Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 07:43 AM
Response to Original message
10. That logic is faulty
The reality is Obama is the stronger and more popular candidate. That's why he is winning the popular vote, the delegate vote and the fund raising contest. Of those three the best and most accurate measure is the delegate count. That is what both candidates campaigned for. The fact that Hillary lost, with such a huge head start and some special advantages (having a popular ex-president campaigning for her 24X7 and strong established ties with the political machine that gets out the vote) really shows that it's Hillary that is unelectable.
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CBGLuthier Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 08:03 AM
Response to Reply #10
20. faulty logic?
I wouldn't even call that "logic" logic.

It is nothing more than an opinion. And an uninformed one at that.
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 08:34 AM
Response to Reply #20
36. the polls are out there, the science is out there, the history is out there....
..Obama's support is overstated. People think it's hip to say "Ill vote for a black guy". When the curtain closes, watch what happens.
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CBGLuthier Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 08:52 AM
Response to Reply #36
44. Yeah, its all about race to you people isn't it
Forget the bullshit about what OPbama said.

The simple truth is fucking racist scumbag white people may not vote for him.

Yeah, we just want to be hip.

You know, the truth is I am not that excited by Obama.

But compared to the sneaky, lieing, armageddon-enabling piece of shit Hillary Clinton, he is, at the very least, a human being.

But to you, he is just "the black guy"

Shameful.
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 10:12 AM
Response to Reply #44
57. Feel free to stop your projection....
it's not about race to me, but you better believe it is to enough people. Sorry that our country hasnt come far enough to ignore such things, but putting your head in the sand accomplishes nothing. Ill put my lieberal/democratic credentials against anyone, so take your "to you he's the black guy" nonsense somewhere else.
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 08:48 AM
Response to Reply #10
40. My logic is faulty? Youre serious?
I guess you have forgotten how good Republicans are at presidential elections. I guess you have forgotten about Rev. Wright. I guess you have forgotten about "bitter" and "clinging" to guns, religion and antipathy? These issues are going to be used to HAMMER Obama, but they cant be used to hammer Clinton.

This business about Clintons negatives? Bush won re-election with higher negatives. She has plenty of time to change that. But the white working class votes she can bring in, Obama will not get.
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CBGLuthier Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 08:53 AM
Response to Reply #40
47. Race again.
IS that really all it is about to you?

Let me ask you a question, How do you get your sheets so white?
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 10:13 AM
Response to Reply #47
58. Youre such an idiot.....feel free to ignore the reality in this country.
Your assertion that I am somehow racist is so patently absurd it requires no response. But hiding your head in the sand will do nothing.
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Liberal Gramma Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 09:52 AM
Response to Reply #40
54. Umm..Bush didn't WIN re-election
He was assisted by Diebold. Does Hillary have Diebold on her side this time?
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RobertDevereaux Donating Member (640 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 07:44 AM
Response to Original message
11. Obama will trounce McCain!
But we must be sure it's a thorough trouncing.

No sitting back and *hoping* it'll happen.

McCain must be destroyed, ridiculed, exposed for the monster he is.

And once Obama's in the White House, progressives must hold him accountable.
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 08:05 AM
Response to Reply #11
22. There will be no trouncing......I'm telling you right now that Obama will lose states Kerry won.
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TexasObserver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 08:50 AM
Response to Reply #22
42. Nonsense! Obama will win every state Kerry did, and several more.
You sound eerily like a Republican operative. Not saying you are one, just that you talk like one.
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 10:16 AM
Response to Reply #42
60. I'm looking at this objectively.....
Name one state that Kerry lost that Obama will win.

Obama will likely lose NH...and will be very vulnerable in MN & MI, and possibly PA.
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TexasObserver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 02:31 PM
Response to Reply #60
118. No, you're not looking at anything objectively. You're looking to start fights.
you're losing this year, so get use to it
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TexasObserver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 07:48 AM
Response to Original message
12. Wow! I've never heard this before.
It's refreshing to read a post that contains new insights. There's something freakily familiar about your posts. They seem so ... brand new. Awesome stuff, this Obama can't win in the states that count. Now you'd better get back to campaigning, Senator Clinton.

If you think Hillary can win states that Obama can't win, you're probably inhaling too much nitrous oxide.
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 08:50 AM
Response to Reply #12
43. Ill add your response to the list of people who can come back in November...
...and apologize for being so wrong. because if Im wrong, Ill be here Wednesday November 5th to take my beating. I hope you will be just as willing to admit to being wrong when McCain is putting his transition team together.
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TexasObserver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 02:28 PM
Response to Reply #43
117. Now you're gonna be here in November, after saying three days ago you were leaving?!
Didn't you tell us a few days ago we are disgusting and you were leaving?!

I don't believe anything you say. You're here to throw inflammatory statements at Democrats under the guise of discussion.

Anyone who says McCain will beat Obama in November is either lying or making it up to suit his own storyline. If you're yet another disgruntled Hillary fan, come back to haunt us, please desist. If you're just a Republican here to ply your GOP memes, know that it won't work. Either way, you're losing the election this year, so get used to it.

As for being here November 5th, no doubt, you'll be here under some name, telling more lies.
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Pavlovs DiOgie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 07:49 AM
Response to Original message
13. I think your crystal ball is cloudy
Try buying a new one.
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 08:06 AM
Response to Reply #13
23. Its clear....Im not being blinded by loyalty, just reading facts.
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lisa58 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 07:52 AM
Response to Original message
14. If Obama loses PA is will be because...
...the Machine didn't come out for him.

Hillary couldn't lose PA and if Rendell does for Obama what he did for Hillary, which he said he would, PA won't be a problem.

Ohio is trending blue and the new Secretary of State is not going to screw with the election process like Blackwell did last time.

Florida is a concern - but it's gotten soooo red think it would be iffy for either candidate.

Obama will be able to campaign in Michigan for the general and we know the economy will still be the big issue and McCain *sucks* on the economy.

Obama already beat Clinton in Wisconsin and the people I know from Wisconsin love him.

Minnesota - I don't know enough about.

I know the Clintons think he can't win - but he is indeed on his way to the nomination and if it looks like Hillary pulled it out from under him, she won't win the general. She thinks she's got negatives now?
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 08:44 AM
Response to Reply #14
39. you're argument is good, but.....
Ohio is not trending Blue if it's Obama. While that "bitter" and "clinging" stuff is gone in this primary, the Republicans have already made their commercials. it's going to kill Obama. Republicans will have very little trouble making Obama look weak, and will be throwing the Rev. Wright stuff out like its going out of style. In the end, Americans will see an inexperiences, elitist who attends church where the minister hates America.

Now i want to state very clearly that this is not my opinion of the man, but it will be the opinion most Americans will have by the time November rolls around.
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WillyToad Donating Member (389 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 08:01 AM
Response to Original message
18. Either candidate will beat grampy McCain
War forever and Bush-o-nomics forever, pound those two memes and McCains numbers will soon
rival Bushes.
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olkaz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 08:12 AM
Response to Original message
25. Poor trolling attempt.
And into my ignore list you go.
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QC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 08:19 AM
Response to Reply #25
29. Poor thing....
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 08:32 AM
Response to Reply #25
35. fine by me...what the fuck do I care if you wish to remain ignorant.
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TexasLady Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 08:18 AM
Response to Original message
28. North Carolina Repukes started their stupid ads there
the one that McCain 'refutes', before the primary is even over..hmmm..That tells me, one, that Obama worries them, and two, they must be presuming him to be the nominee. Otherwise, there would be money spent smearing Hillary. Iraq is McCain's sore spot, and Repukes know it, and know we are sick to death of it. You don't attack someone you aren't worried about.
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 08:55 AM
Response to Reply #28
48. They are attacking Obama because it looks like he will be the nominee....
....I have never argued to the contrary. I think Obama will win the nomination, and he will get my full support. But he's going to get his ass royally kicked. Thats all. I'll just add him to the long list of losing presidential candidates I have voted for:

Mondale
Dukakis
Gore
Kerry
Obama
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Blue_Roses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 10:39 AM
Response to Reply #48
63. you call giving him "your full support" by saying he will get his ass kicked
royally:wtf: Really, tell us the real reason you are here on DU? I've followed all your posts and you are just a little ray of sunshine aren't you:eyes:
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 11:59 AM
Response to Reply #63
93. I'll answer your question, gladly.
I will vote for him. I will donate $$ to his campaign. I will put a yard sign up and stickers on my car. I will telephone people on election day and volunteer to drive people to the polls who are going to vote for him. But I did that for Gore. I did that for Kerry.

Doesnt mean I ignore reality for the sake of someones feelings. He's going to get attacked and he's going to lose because people in this country are generally speaking, stupid. Republicans win presidential elections because they are good at it. We lose because we suck at it. I think we will lose, but I will do my best to help. But what I say here or what I think will not determine the outcome. In my profession we call that "magical thinking"
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FSogol Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 08:19 AM
Response to Original message
30. Another Defeatist. McCain will not win.
America knows that a grumpy old guy can't solve their problems.
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 08:36 AM
Response to Reply #30
37. really? Then can you explain why....
....he buries Obama in FLA, beats him in OH, and is withing 2% in MI 7 NJ......yeah, Im just making that up
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MyNameGoesHere Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 08:20 AM
Response to Original message
31. i could like Obama, his supporters make me gag though. n/t
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Window Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 08:20 AM
Response to Original message
32. Thank you very much for your concern.
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 08:39 AM
Response to Reply #32
38. Its more than just concern.......
......its trouble on the horizon. Like I said, lets archive this thread so everyone can eat crow when McCain gets sworn in. I'll gladly sit here and take a very public beating if Im wrong. But most of you Obama supporters will be making excuses for why you didnt see it coming.
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Window Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 11:22 AM
Response to Reply #38
74. If he loses, there will be no excuses offered by me. Been around a long time.
Long enough to know that anything can and most likely will happen. Voted in my first presidential election in 1964.
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madrchsod Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 08:27 AM
Response to Original message
33. i`ll ask sasha what she thinks of john`s chance of beating barack....
sorry.....

i`ll have to get back about that later......... she`s still dreaming of chasing that dam rabbit..


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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 08:48 AM
Response to Original message
41. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 08:52 AM
Response to Reply #41
45. I will not only vote for Obama,....
...Ill be donating and putting up yard sign, bumper sticker and make phone calls here in NY if they need the help. I cast my first vote in 1984 for Walter Mondale and have supported every single Democrat who has ever run. But that doesnt mean I have to ignore reality.
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 08:58 AM
Response to Reply #45
49. how about this reality? In the new Rasmussen MN poll Obama is
up over McCain by double digits. Hillary is up over McCain by 5. How will you spin that?
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 10:20 AM
Response to Reply #49
61. no need to spin it.....but here goes.
Obama will lose more support in MN than Clinton will, once the campaign starts. it is a blue state, but once those "bitter" and "clinging" commercials start, that lead will evaporate.
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 11:33 AM
Response to Reply #61
84. oh for pity's sake. you pulled that out of thin air.
you have nothing. continue with the spinning, dear.
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QC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 11:13 AM
Response to Reply #45
73. It's not enough to support him.
You must accept him as your personal lord and savior!
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 11:24 AM
Response to Reply #73
75. mea culpa
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TragedyandHope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 10:30 AM
Response to Original message
62. Obama will crush McCain
Give the American voters some credit. It will be a whole different ballgame when we get to the General Election. Not to mention, Obama is smart enough to pick a VP that will give him a boost in areas that don't already support him.

All this easy dismissal of our front runner and doomsaying is counter-productive. Don't help the Rethugs by painting a cloud over the Democratic party.

Either way, we will have an historic candidate and 8 years of Bush on our side. 30% of Republicans already hate McCain and they aren't actively supporting him or contributing to his campaign.

There will be a Democrat in the White House next year.

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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 11:28 AM
Response to Reply #62
81. You're right about the new ballgame, just wrong about the score.
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TwilightGardener Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 11:04 AM
Response to Original message
67. McCain is the Sacrificial Dole. He's having his moment of glory, and then it's
off to Shady Pines.
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cliffordu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 11:08 AM
Response to Original message
68. Got ignorant??
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ClassWarrior Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 11:10 AM
Response to Original message
69. I thought you left this board in a blaze of insults and bitterness days ago...
:shrug:

NGU.


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Occam Bandage Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 11:12 AM
Response to Reply #69
71. He did. I assume by now you've learned that 99.99% of "you suck I'm leaving" posts are just drama.
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 11:26 AM
Response to Reply #71
78. where did it say I was leaving?
I must have missed that part.
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Occam Bandage Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 12:00 PM
Response to Reply #78
94. "Ill try to find civil discussion elsewhere."
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 12:44 PM
Response to Reply #94
98. that doesnt mean leaving....
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 11:25 AM
Response to Reply #69
76. Nope, just decided it's time to act like the rest of Rome.
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Occam Bandage Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 11:10 AM
Response to Original message
70. WI and MN? You're a joker.
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 11:25 AM
Response to Reply #70
77. You'll see........
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AlinPA Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 11:13 AM
Response to Original message
72. So it will be Guns...and you didn't mention the usual God, Gays, Flags. So what
else is new? R's use that stuff every time.
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 11:26 AM
Response to Reply #72
79. It sure does work, doesnt it.....?
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AlinPA Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 02:00 PM
Response to Reply #79
109. It sure does. That reminds me of the last major presidential candidate from Illinois,
Adlai Stevenson, who was approached by a voter in the 1950s.
"Governor, you have the vote of every thinking American," she said.

"That's nice," Stevenson replied. "But I need a majority."
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 02:10 PM
Response to Reply #109
110. I was just reading that in a book by Carville and Begala
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AlinPA Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 03:07 PM
Response to Reply #110
119. Have you read "What's The Matter With Kansas?"
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 11:28 AM
Response to Original message
80. Poll today shows Obama up 14 in MN
Obama will also definitely win Michigan and Wisconsin.
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 11:30 AM
Response to Original message
83. Your premise on what states is amusingly naive because it doesn't factor in the
reality that we are running against a man who is a gaffe a minute and cannot answer a simple quesiton like "who is going to Iran for training" or "do condoms stop STDs" without checking with a staff. On the trail, under the spotlight his gaffes and his pastors will make Obama look like a genius.


But beyond that doesn't it strike you as very odd that you can talk about losing this state or that state with Obama but ripping the nomination away from him will not affect the AA vote. How do you propose that we win anywhere when the AA vote and those that sympathize with the priniciple of pledged delgates determining the vote sit this election out. Or do you think, as your question implies that Blacks are a captive resource wholly owned by the Democratic Party?
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 11:49 AM
Response to Reply #83
90. Since you're late for class, I'll explain again.
Once the attacks come, on "bitter voters", "clinging to guns and religion and antipathy" and of course the rev. wright, the entire landscape will change. These ads will make Obama vulnerable in many states that we take for granted. If you think these tactics will not be used and will not work, you obviously missed presidential election history class. These ads will run around the clock in FLA, OH, PA, MI and will elect McCain.

It's not complicated. Just because Obama is popular with half of the democrats who have shown up, doesnt mean the rest of the country is ready for a person of color whose last name sounds like Osama and who's middle name is Hussein.....sorry, but thats just the country we are.
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JBoy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 11:52 AM
Response to Reply #90
91. So your argument really comes down to "we shouldn't run a black candidate"?
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 12:47 PM
Response to Reply #91
99. no, my argument comes down to...
we shouldnt run a candidate that has made enough mistakes in the primary to give the Republicans all they need to beat him in November. My argument is that we shouldnt nominate someone who wouldnt even be holding national office had his Senate opponent not been a total pervert. I'm saying we shouldnt nominate a candidate who comes off as an elitist to many of the voters democrats need the most.
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JBoy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 12:54 PM
Response to Reply #99
103. Then you argument is pure opinion, speculation, and frankly bullshit.
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 02:12 PM
Response to Reply #103
111. OK....when McCain gets sworn in you can come back and remind me how wrong I am.
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 12:16 PM
Response to Reply #90
96. the reason that you don't get to teach is because you give more wieght to
white voters that chose Clinton versus Obama which has nothing to do with an Obama vs McCain fight and

you give no consideration to the mass of voters that are going to be beyond angry, especially AA voters and there sympathizers

if Clinton gets the nomination.


You didn't take the gentle method so now we have to put a fine point on it. The fundamental point of your quesion is racist because you assume the AA vote in the GE is a given but you want to pander to people that are influenced by tawdry guilt by association.

Moreover your assertion that these comments have had any real impact at all is not supported by any polling data.





You have a very high opinion of your own opinion and no grasp of the actual facts that have been established by objective polling sources.

The person that has an 'electability' problem is the one whose poll numbers are tanking





If you look at that graph carefully you will see that Clinton is now exactly at the point where she started the race. She hasn't increased her standing a single point beyond what it was pre-Iowa.

If you reply please don't forget to bring some data, facts or a link to an objective source that actually agrees that the Democratic party is better of pandering to the people you are referring to than alienating its most loyal electoral base demographic.
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 12:50 PM
Response to Reply #96
100. The fundamental point of my argument is racist?
thats just about as laughable as it gets. spare me the projection. the fundamental point of my argument is that Obama has made huge errors that are going to be used against him in the Fall and will cost him the election. Not because he's black, but because he's inexperienced, handles stress and pressure poorly and frankly comes off as elitist to many people the Democrats need in the fold to win in OH, PA and FLA
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 12:58 PM
Response to Reply #100
104. Its racist because you only factor in electablility arguments
based on what white people will do and not what the African American community will do.


Yes your a racist and if people google your other posts you are frequently and vociferously in favor of majority takes all primaries and against proportional primaries.

This is just another way of wiping out minority opinion and minority votes.


You are against the values that this party is based on.


Beyond that you state that you hate it here and you have felt much more welcomed and comfortable in conservative discussion groups.

Why don't you take your racist clap trap and leave. You said you are were leaving. The people in here are smart enough to read

between the lines and see right thru you.
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 02:15 PM
Response to Reply #104
112. You are so clueless.....you miss by a mile.
I never said I'm leaving. Calling me a racist doesn't change the fact that this country isn't going to elect a person of color at this point in history. It makes me a realist. If you want to lose to assuage the guilt you project onto me then fine. I'd rather win.
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Dawgs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 11:37 AM
Response to Original message
86. First of all, no "if". He will win the nomination.
Second, the "bitter" and "guns" comments were correct. It will help him, not hurt him. The only people that would be offended by those comments are the dumb and ignorant. The dumb and ignorant are Republicans that wouldn't have voted for him anyway.

You got anything else?

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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 12:52 PM
Response to Reply #86
101. WOW.......is this supposed to be an enlightened view point?
If you think that the only people who were put off by his comments are Republicans you are in way over your head here. You cant be serious. No wonder this place is poked fun of so frequently. What you just said has to be one of the most ignorant things I have read.
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 01:08 PM
Response to Reply #101
106. for the uninformed this guy is a right wing troll
How does he know that we are poked fun of - because that is where he normally is.




I'm sorry i signed up here..... Updated at 9:44 AM

...this is the nastiest group of people I have come across on the internet. I have been in conservative right wing forums that were more cordial. I don't know what party or philosophy many here are, but you aint democrats, or at least you dont act liek democrats.

Ill try to find civil discussion elsewhere.
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 02:17 PM
Response to Reply #106
113. Yep...I thought civil discussion could be found elsewhere and it turns out that it doesnt exist.
So i decided to act like the rest of the Romans. Sorry you feel guilty about being white and think nominating a losing candidate is going to heal this country. it isnt. He's going to go down in flames because theres too many people who simply will not vote for him. theres too many people who are going to be swayed by the Republican smear machine. I'd rather beat them then hand them the election. If that makes me a racist in your eyes, so be it
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Bucky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 11:46 AM
Response to Original message
89. I don't like Clinton. But if she's nominated, I'll work my ass off for her.
Edited on Thu Apr-24-08 11:47 AM by Bucky
Not a day before, but anyone who thinks she's just as bad as McCain, or just abstains because their feelings are hurt by the campaign, needs to get their priorities straightened out.
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 12:54 PM
Response to Reply #89
102. I agree with you 100%.....
.....I just dont think Obama wins in november and frankly I think I have laid out a pretty solid argument as to why.
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barack the house Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 12:30 PM
Response to Original message
97. There are many times we have been told no we can't we proved yes we can.
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Utah_liberal Donating Member (39 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 01:05 PM
Response to Original message
105. I come from a 50/50 Obama/HRC household
I voted Obama, and my wife voted for Clinton. For God's sake everyone, lets cut the hate talk. I agree things look more favorable to Obama right now. And I know my wife will proudly cast her vote for Obama in a GE. Yes it's likely to be Obama as the nominee, but anyone who even entertains the thought of not voting Democrat should have no business on DU. Whatever happens, I will vote against McCain. McCain as president? We can't let that happen.
Ed
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 02:20 PM
Response to Reply #105
115. You are 100% correct.
But Im a racist because I dont believe Obama will be elected.
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NewHampshireDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 01:50 PM
Response to Original message
108. So, are you leaving or not?
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gsaguyCLW54 Donating Member (178 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 02:19 PM
Response to Reply #108
114. I said I was going to look for intelligent discussion elsehwere, never said I wasnt going to post
But what I said about the majority of people here is true. nasty as they come. I have had more civil discussions with people who voted for Bush twice than with people who claim to be progressives. But thats keyboard warriors for ya.
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