Dear media, Hillary (aka Rocky) is still down for the count

[ProSense]

Correcting Hillary and the media's popular vote math problem:

Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA* with FL:

15,307,804
14,991,216
Obama +316,588

Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA* with FL and MI (Obama gets 238,168 uncommitteds. Since you insist, it's only fair):

Obama 15,545,972
Hillary 15,319,525
Obama + 226,447

Since FL and MI don't count, the reality is Obama +501,138

Also, this is a delegate battle. No amount of spin can change that.


Seizing on Her Primary Win, Clinton Says Tide Is Turning

Really?

If only there was a way to stop the madness:

It figures, doesn’t it? After 16 months of campaigning, primaries and caucuses in 43 states, a couple dozen debates, and ungodly sums of money spent on campaign ads, Pennsylvania was poised to make a real difference. A landslide win by Hillary Clinton (as predicted by initial polls in March) might have fundamentally reshaped the race. A narrow win by Hillary Clinton (as predicted by early exit polls released last night) would have made it difficult for Clinton to continue.

So, what happens? She wins by 9.4% — a number Clinton supporters round up to call it a double-digit win, and Obama supporters round down for the opposite reason. Clinton’s victory was decisive and impressive, but the margin fits nicely into that middle ground. It’s big enough to give Clinton a boost, but not big enough to change the overall dynamics of the race. It’s big enough to keep the campaign going for quite a while, but not big enough to compel uncommitted superdelegates to get off the fence.

In other words, after six weeks of campaigning in the Keystone State, and about $40 million of investment, the Democratic Party is largely where it was a month ago.

<...>

So, all the talk we heard in March will continue to May, and probably longer. We’re going to hear a lot about “the math” vs. “the momentum.” “The numbers” vs. “the narrative.”

The show must will go on.

The delegate reality:

Hillary currently has 1586 delegates. There are 408 pledged delegates remaining.

Guam 4
NC 115
KY 51
MT 16
PR 55
IN 72
WV 28
OR 52
SD 15
Total 408

There are 187 delegates up for grabs in IN and NC. If Obama gets only one half of those delegates (93.5), the totals become:

Obama 1813
Hillary 1680
Obama +133

Total remaining delegates minus NC and IN: 408 - 187 = 221

Let's give Hillary 60% (or 133 delegates) overall (representing 30-pt wins in Guam, KY, WV and PR, and 50-50 split in the SD, OR, MT)

Obama 1902 (an additional 88, or 40%)
Hillary 1813
Obama +89

Guess what: No states left

In reality, Obama would likely gain (at the very least) an additional 15 to 20 pledged delegates along the way, ending with a 100-plus margin over Hillary.

She can't win.

What about Hillary's fantasy, FL and MI:

Hillary's gain 178
Obama's gain 122

Total with FL and MI delegates (Obama gets MI 55. Since you insist, it's only fair):

Obama 2024 (1902 + 122)
Hillary 1991 (1813 + 178)
Obama +33

Guess what: still no states left. Did Obama just win the nomination without a single additional superdelegate?

[provis99]

1. haven't you heard? Ms Rocky is making Rocky II in 2012

when she will win.

[Mr. Hawk]

2. logical flaw

you're assuming that there will be no superdelegate defections. trust me, the support for BHO right now is a mile wide and an inch deep. if HRC can win Indy and hold her own in NC, expect some defections by mid-May

[ProSense]

4. "if HRC can win Indy and hold her own in NC..." Unlike the OP,

which assumes a draw in both races, your scenario would increase Obama's lead:

IN: Hillary by 4 pts nets 2 delegates.

NC: Obama by 4 pts nets 5 delegates.


Still, care to elaborate on the impact of your expected defections with Obama leading by 133 to 136?




edited for clarity

[Buzz Clik]

3. "All I wanna do is go da distance."

"I been out there, walking around, thinkin'. I mean, who am I kiddin'? I ain't even in the guy's league. But that don't matter either, you know? Cos I was thinkin'... It really don't matter if I lose this fight. It really don't matter if this guy opens my head either. Cos all I wanna do is go the distance."

[caligirl]

5. Prosense, they even pulled out some of the caucus states to rig the pop vote numbers

they put out.http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/23/131539/929/684/501732

Actually, that's simply ridiculous. Go to Real Clear Politics and look at their popular vote estimates (pre-Pennsylvania):

Popular vote total: Obama +717,086
Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA: Obama +827,308

Popular Vote (w/FL): Obama +422,314
Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA: Obama +532,536

Popular Vote (w/FL *MI): Obama +94,005
Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA: Obama +204,227

So see what they have done -- the Clinton campaign and Jerome have taken the roughly 215,000 net votes Clinton gained in Pennsylvania, and added them to the popular vote count that includes the unsanctioned contests in Michigan and Florida, and excludes caucuses in four states. How's that for inclusiveness?

It gets worse. That Michigan vote estimate? Obama wasn't on the ballot. If you count the "uncommitted" votes for Obama -- all of them anti-Hillary votes, remember -- that would add 237,762 votes to Obama's total.

Which means that in Clinton and Jerome's world, Clinton is ahead in the popular vote only IF you exclude four caucus states, IF you include two unsanctioned states, and IF you "disenfranchise" every voter in Michigan who voted against Hillary Clinton.

That takes a new and particularly audacious level of chutzpah.

[ProSense]

6. Yeah, it's

Clintonball.

One thing will remain constant everyday until the end of Hillary's divisive, smear campaign: She can't win.

[caligirl]

7. I am on my way to the gym, too fed up with her spin and lies.

[phrigndumass]

8. K/R

:thumbsup:

[ProSense]

9. Thanks! n/t

[ProSense]

10. Obama Disputes Clinton’s Election Math

Obama Disputes Clinton’s Election Math.

Hillary has no problem disenfranchising MI voters who didn't cast a vote for her, from the link above:

Clinton spokesman Singer responds: “Senator Obama might be content to dismiss the nearly 2.5 million people who voted in Florida and Michigan as abstractions, but Senator Clinton thinks they are people whose votes count and voices should be heard.”

[ProSense]

11. Asshole James "Judas" Carville debating Bill Richardson on CNN

Richardson mentions that Hillary would need 70% of every remaining contest...to come close.

[ProSense]

12. Clinton Supporter Challenges DNC to Seat Michigan Delegates

Clinton Supporter Challenges DNC to Seat Michigan Delegates


I detect desperation. What happened to the decisive win in PA?

[Egnever]

13. Must kick for the uneducated voter

[Gore1FL]

14. Funny thing about Rocky...

He came on strong at the end and still lost because he couldn't make up the points.

[ProSense]

15. From HillaryHub, a sign she is will to disenfranchise MI voters who didn't vote for her

More People Have Voted For Hillary Than Any Other Candidate




The media and Hillary being completely disingenuous and delusional.

[ProSense]

16. McAuliffe, circa 2004: Michigan "will not get seated" if they break rules

McAuliffe, circa 2004: Michigan "will not get seated" if they break rules

Typical Hillary camp hypocrisy from McAwful.

[ProSense]

17. It's still over.

Add two for Obama and one for Hillary.