I am the guy that told all of you that Obama was winning in MO when the networks called for Clinton

[usregimechange]

and I can tell you that this is not over. Big Obama counties still out and the remaining precincts in Philly may go huge to Obama. This is not over...

[Mme. Defarge]

1. Permettez-moi

to be the first to recommend!

[Alexander]

2. It's getting much closer, who knows.

I'm seeing it narrow to 53% Clinton, 47% Obama. I predicted it would be 52.5% Clinton, 47.5% Obama. Here's hoping it's close to that.

[Yael]

3. Rec 5

From your keyboard...

[nerddem]

4. i'd like to be optimistic,

but there's already 45% of philadelphia county in, and he's got 57% of that

[usregimechange]

9. Which precincts are in?

[Yael]

15. West Philly was a clusterfuck this morning.

Lots of provisional ballots to count.

[nerddem]

27. our drexel precinct had

about 450 votes total, out of about 1600 regs (895 dems), but several hundred i'm sure don't live here, so the likelies are actually probably closer to 1100ish

[usregimechange]

29. Now 59% for Obama in Philly, 51% in, again what is outstanding? University city?

[krkaufman]

56. *IF* they're counted. n/t

[William769]

10. And he need about 85% to even be competitive.

Go figure.

[Yael]

12. It isn't about the city

Wait for the suburbs to come in.

:thumbsup:

[usregimechange]

18. None in yet! 3% from bucks, thats it

[Yael]

24. Bucks, Montgomery, Chester, Delaware, Lancaster -- those are the ones to wait for

Those are the "commuter" counties.

[nerddem]

25. now at 61% in, but still at 58 nt

[usregimechange]

5. Zero votes in from Philly burbs and nothing from Pitt, 1% in from Dauphin, Penn state area 2% in

[Tatiana]

6. Interesting... Philadelphia County is inching towards 60% Obama w/ 44% reporting.

No Montgomery County. 0% reporting in Allegheny County. I still think Clinton has it, but it may be closer than current numbers indicate.

[JerseygirlCT]

46. Where are you watching those details?

NYT hasn't updated since 9:23... getting frustrating!

[Secret_Society]

7. Come on

[still_one]

8. It is about a 7 to 9 point spread, about what the polls said

That is darn good since he Obama was behind so much, and Clinton needed to win by at least 20 points

[ingac70]

13. The state of PA says the margin is less than that...

http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/

[still_one]

19. wow, CNN results are sure different /nt

[Coexist]

11. I'll kick it, but I wish I could believe it more...

when did they call MO? How early?

[DianaForRussFeingold]

14. K&R

:popcorn:

[Yael]

16. Pass me some of that, will ya?

[Tatiana]

26. Add some butter and salt to mine, please... n/t

[davsand]

17. I appreciated what you had to say in MO. Do you know PA equally well?

I remember what you had to say that night, and it seemed like you knew MO really well. When I looked at your profile I realized you live there.

Do you have an equally good grasp of the PA demographics?

I hope you do!!!

:hi:


Laura

[usregimechange]

22. I don't but calling it this early is just nuts

see here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5088717

[Imalittleteapot]

20. Clinton 51.2% Obama 48.8% - 19.34% reporting - rec

http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/

[Zech Marquis]

28. still too early to call (for me at least)

right now cnn has only 20 percent of the voting precints in, why did the news networks jump the gun early??? And it's not like it's a blowout either...

[CoffeeCat]

21. I just posted about this...

...because Obama does very well in urban areas and in the cities with college towns. Those
numbers will come in last. That's exactly what happened in Texas.

I just asked the question about the Philadelphia area. I heard this week, that 40 percent of all
of the votes from PA, will come from Phily and the surrounding 'burbs and towns. I also heard
that this area is of the state breaks heavily for Obama. This is where he galvanized that crowd
of 35,000 the other night.

I agree, it's far from over. The larger cities will favor him--and those results always come in last.

She's ahead by only 6 now! 8:35 cst

[Yael]

31. Heya my dear friend from Iowa!!

You want to watch:

Allegheny County -- Pittsburgh -- west

Center County -- Penn State -- middle

Dauphin -- Harrisburg -- center south

Delaware, Chester, Lancaster, Burks and Montgomery -- Philly commuter counties. East, stretching to center

Philadelphia -- Philly -- south east

Lehigh -- Allentown/Bethlehem -- middle east

Those are the main population centers.

Map with hover results: http://www.nytimes.com/

[CoffeeCat]

55. Hey Yael!

How are ya?

Thanks for the NYTimes link. Very helpful.

This is exciting, isn't it?

I'll share my popcorn with ya...

:popcorn:

[Yael]

58. I am too tired to eat. If I sit real still, will you drop it into my mouth?

I KNOW you can appreciate.

What a day.

[Tatiana]

23. LOL right on cue, MSNBC puts Claire McCaskill on. n/t

[usregimechange]

30. What did she say?

[Tatiana]

34. I turned the volume down when Tweety started bloviating.

But she liked the way Obama matches up against McCain and Tweety prattled on about Obama not using a populist message enough.

[durrrty libby]

32. "this is not over." Yes it is

[Yael]

35. Well, we must be at fuckstick level 9

Your goofy avatar is missing. I actually read your post!

[Zhade]

37. For clinton, it is.

Which is awesome!

[usregimechange]

33. CNN exists had a plus 60% for Obama in Philly burbs which are all outstanding

to be fair Lackawanna still mostly out for Clinton, she's got a lot of votes outstanding too.

[RiverStone]

38. Thanks - if you can keep that optimism flowing

We'll take it!

I'm just hoping Obama can close the gap and loss by a small margin (4-6%) - that would be a HUGE moral victory.

[tishaLA]

45. The NY Times map has 66% of Philadelphia in

and he's at 60% there. I don't get the Allegheny County results at all. But none of the Philadelphia suburbs have anything in yet.

[redstate_democrat]

36. I'm laughing at the Hillary supporters right now

This is a tight race. Rendell's people are making sure Hillary's numbers come in quick. A lot of Obama's counties aren't even in yet.

[RiverStone]

39. What are you looking at?

I believe you - but this political junkie would enjoy seeing the play by play action in O's counties.

Link?

Thanks :hi:

[Cal Carpenter]

43. New York Times has a good county breakdown map

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/PA.html

Hover your cursor over each county for details

[redstate_democrat]

44. Thanks

[RiverStone]

49. Great - thank you!

:hi:

[Tatiana]

40. Am I crazy? Three Hillary Clintons running against one Obama?

http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/

Edit: OK, now it's just one Hillary.

[usregimechange]

41. Well, it isn't looking so good for Obama now. Losing Pitt, some burbs lighting up for Clinton

[Tatiana]

42. Yeah, he needed to do better in Allegheny County. n/t

[redstate_democrat]

48. Lancaster, Montgomery, Chester still out at 0% reporting

How are they still out, but Philly is in and Lakawana is in? Something seems strange about that.

[TheDoorbellRang]

47. What's your prognosis?

I remember following your MO thread on Super Tuesday night when you were the lone voice calling it for Obama, and he pulled it off with the urban vote late that night. Any chance of that happening here in PA, do you think?

[usregimechange]

50. I don't think so but I still think it was crazy to call it so early, now it would be reasonable

[Aloha Spirit]

51. I'm with the OP--compare the CNN exit polls by zone (pg 2) with the percent reported....

34% of voters are from Philly and Philly suburbs, and they go to Obama 59-60%.

[usregimechange]

52. It's over, he is even losing the Philly burbs

[ProudToBeLiberal]

54. maybe penn had different demographics than missouri? n/t

[Bensthename]

53. So you are the guy. Me and my wife were talking about you early..

[Aloha Spirit]

57. Delaware county turned in favor of Obama....