NRO Exit Poll - Obama up 52-47

[Dbdmjs1022]

I know it's NRO, so don't crucify me. But we ARE trying to collect as much info as possible. The guy posting it says that it's totally possible that things will change and that Obama usually does well in early exits. But right now he's up 52-47 on Hillary. He's winning blue collars 2-1 and Philly voters 3-1.

http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/

[Drunken Irishman]

1. I'm wondering if these are wrong, Druge has Clinton up 52-48.

[Dbdmjs1022]

3. It's definitely possible that Drudge and/or NRO are fucking with us

[americanstranger]

8. Yep. Muddying the waters. n/t

- as

[Coexist]

9. yes it is.

[Alexander]

17. It's also possible that PA is just really close and anyone's guess.

Given the recent polling, I think that's the case.

Which is good news for Obama.

[Zhade]

24. Indeed - PA will mean nothing for clinton even if she wins, if it's close.

Gobama!

[Texas Hill Country]

53. ya think? lol

[ORDem]

30. I'd be very wary of exit polls. People often vote differently in "public"

than in the voting booth. :dem:

[Stevepol]

55. How do you know how they vote if 85% of the voting is done in cyber space,

NO PAPER AT ALL. This is the case in PA. So there's no reason to have even the slightest confidence in the reported result whoever wins.

[MadBadger]

2. Hes winning blue collars 2-1?

[GarbagemanLB]

7. I don't believe that.

[PM7nj]

10. Maybe they meant white collar?

I don't know... all these exit polls are crazy.

[usregimechange]

15. I don't even believe that

[The_Counsel]

19. I Know, Right...?

I can see him taking Philly proper 3-1, even though that seems a little high also...

...but winning the Archie Bunker types 2-1??? Naw, I don't believe that.

I'd be happy if he just got north of 40% in that demographic...

[panAmerican]

27. I'm 1000% pro-Obama, but I will ask for a recount if he gets rural 2-1

This smacks of more Operation Chaos.

[City Lights]

46. I find that difficult to believe. nt

[malik flavors]

4. I can't trust exit polling. I'm gonna have to see actual numbers roll in.

What if this whole thing ended tomorrow? Wouldn't that be so crazy?

Anyways, we'll see how things turn out.

[City Lights]

47. Totally agree. I've gotten my hopes up too many times based on exits

only to be disappointed when the actuals rolled in. We'll know soon enough. :-)

[Teaser]

5. No. Wrong. FAIL

Look, I like the sound of that, but NRO has had multiple exit rumors in the past and they've frequently been shite.

And why would one right wing outlet (DRUDGE) be getting one set of leaked numbers and NRO getting a different set?

Someone flipped the real nums, I bet.

[Drunken Irishman]

13. Tough to say.

Drudge could be getting CNN/FOX/MSNBC exit poll numbers, while NRO could be getting MSNBC/FOX/CNN numbers.

[Bucky]

23. Or two different polling firms got different results

I'm telling ya, much as I want it, Obama can not win Pennsylvania, and certainly not by 5%.

It is strategically in Clinton's interest to leak higher than expected Obama numbers to the press. It strongly builds the case for Clinton if they can exaggerate the already existing "Bradley effect". It demoralizes Obama people and sends a gong out to politically savvy Supers and other operatives that Obama is a weak finisher.

[Coexist]

6. why do only right-wing sites release data?

I don't trust the righties on our stuff - they are always way off.

[4themind]

16. Because most neutral or progressive sides

understand the potential impact of releasing these things before people finish voting

[rniel]

11. Why

Why do you hate women so??

[woolldog]

12. Something must be wrong with the poll. Let's not get our hopes up.

[Political Heretic]

14. I don't believe that at all.

[jefferson_dem]

18. Let's hope these are tried and true.

Thanks for posting. :applause:

[book_worm]

20. I'm a Obama supporter but I don't see him winning blue collars 2-1

However, I do think he could take Philly 3-1

[cbayer]

21. Reputable news organizations do not post exit polls prior to the polls closing.

PERIOD.

[quakerboy]

22. they are just fucking with us

[Life Long Dem]

25. He's getting 45 % white males.

Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:42:57 PM PDT

Via CNN:

* Seniors: 61C, 38O

* White male: 55C, 45O

* Blacks: 8C, 92O

* 42 percent say US is in serious recession.

[GarbagemanLB]

28. wasn't it 38 in OH?

[NJSecularist]

56. Yes, he got 39% of white males in Ohio. n/t

[mopinko]

26. as others here said- we can hope, but

i don't think it is all that likely. a very reliable source told me to not hold my breath.

[oviedodem]

29. Not good for Obama if Philly is coming like this already.

[jefferson_dem]

31. FYI: These NRO numbers are good enough for Hillary-lovin' mydd.

Obama Looking Strong In Early Pennsylvania Exit Polls
by Todd Beeton, Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:11:15 PM EST

Jim Geraghty, who's always reliable for some early exit polls on election day, has Obama up by a larger margin than one would expect even factoring in the usual Obama-bias the early exit polls seem to have traditionally.

Hold on to your hats. I've gotten the usual word of the exit poll results from one of my usual reliable sources. He notes that Obama traditionally over-performs in the earliest exit polls, and that he expects the numbers to change as the night wears on - perhaps a reversal.

But right now, the exits are saying Obama 52 percent, Clinton 47 percent.

Take these results with the usual grains of salt and skepticism. I'm told that Obama is carrying blue collar workers two to one, and he's winning Philadelphia in the neighborhood of three to one.

As usual, if you're a Pennsylvanian and haven't voted yet, don't let these or any other numbers discourage you.

Looks like some potential good news for Obama from fladem over at Open Left as well:

CNN (via Markos) has some Exit Poll numbers:

Seniors: 61C, 38O
White male: 55C, 45O
Blacks: 8C, 92O

The last SurveyUSA had Obama winning the African American vote 87-11 and had Clinton leading among seniors 62-32.


Hmm, is this going to be a long night or is it just one of those nights that looks like it's going to be long but then isn't?

http://www.mydd.com/

[truedelphi]

58. And sad that the voting machines are electronic and that many

Of the same election fraud games we saw in Ohio back in 2004 are still with us.

[PBS Poll-435]

32. Obama Supporters *HEART* National Review Online

:puke:

[jefferson_dem]

33. So does an avid Hillary lover.

See my post just above yours, silly.

[PBS Poll-435]

34. That's fantastic. However...

I was talking about the OP.

[Teaser]

38. No you weren't because you used a plural

.

[PBS Poll-435]

39. And if you will look in the OP, you will find a plural

Duh.

[Teaser]

44. FAIL

nice try at a save. But its clear you were referring to the OP, as you said.

And the OP is singular.

You get the DU FAIL of the day!

[PBS Poll-435]

45. The op means ORIGINAL POST

What did you think it meant ?

Ocean Pacific?

[PBS Poll-435]

60. How does it feel to win FAIL OF THE DAY/MONTH/SEMESTER?

Not too good, eh?

:cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry:

[Teaser]

37. .

.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

61. Hillary Clinton *HEARTS* Richard Mellon Scaife

:puke:

[PBS Poll-435]

62. Nah...She hearts endorsements from circulating newspapers in the state in which she is competing.

I hope SOMEONE is holding your hair...

[Name removed]

63. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[PBS Poll-435]

64. Fantastic! I have ALWAYS wanted to be on your *blissful ignorance* list.

Thank you for the opportunity!

[CTD]

35. UPDATES POSTED AT NRO

Take them for what they're worth...

---------------
UPDATE: Brendan Loy looked at Obama's performance in the early exit polls and concludes "Obama generally does 7-8 points worse in the actual results than he did in the leaked, unweighted exit polls."

ANOTHER UPDATE: Yes, I know Drudge has the numbers reversed. I checked with my source, and this is what they've got. I have more than one source who hears the early exit poll numbers, and haven't yet heard from all of them.
---------------

[Jersey Devil]

36. What could possibily cause that?

The only way that it could be possible for that to happen is if Obama voters consistently vote earlier in the day, wouldn't you think?

[ej510]

43. Hell he won't win white voters period his goal is to keep that lead under 60.

[Hepburn]

40. Oh, gawd....let this be true and let this Clinton bullshit end.

...please, please, please!

[Rob Gregory Browne]

41. Isn't it funny how the exit polls of 2000 and 2004

have us all doubting exit polls today. Yet those exit polls were essentially right. This is a perfect example of letting the media/right wing spin train us to distrust what has traditionally been correct for decades. Amazing.

[slinkerwink]

42. HUGE GRAIN OF SALT---Josh says so at TPM

Exits: Been There, Done That

As you may have noticed Drudge has up what he says are 5 PM exit poll numbers showing Clinton 52%, Obama 48%. I suspect they are 'accurate' as far as early, un-weighted exits can be. But let me point out that my recollection is that pretty much all the early and unweighted exits we've seen this cycle have turned out to be wrong. And often very wrong. So this has to be taken with a real grain of salt. And that's assuming they're not made up entirely.

Late Update: Jim Geraghty at NRO has Obama 52%, Clinton 47%.

And to be clear, when I say take them with a grain of salt, I don't mean that in the garden variety, being responsible, 'we don't know for sure yet' kind of way. I really mean that these early unweighted numbers have routinely been way, way off.

Later Update: Brendan Loy looked at some earlier states and seems to have confirmed what was my recollection that the early exits have not only routinely been wrong but they've routinely been wrong in Obama's favor.

[barack the house]

48. Remember blue callar is the vote we needed. Guardedly optimistic here.=)

[cottonseed]

49. Drudge and NRO settings us Dems up for vote count fight.

Let's see, Drudge and NRO come out with BIG Obama numbers and when the actual vote count comes in showing a nice Hillary win -- we Dems start devouring one another over vote counting.

I don't want to rely on these sources quite yet.

[kerry112]

50. There is no such thing as an "NRO exit poll"

NRO is saying that some exit polls that they won't mention have Obama up 52%-47%. That does not mean NRO has an exit poll.

[johnnydrama]

51. I dispute

I dispute the people who say that earlier exit polls in other states have favored Obama.

What they have is underestimated the winner.

Surely the exit polls in Maryland, which Obama won by 29, didn't have him winning by 36. If they favored Obama by 7, they would have showed 36.

[CTD]

52. MORE exit poll data from NBC....

Most important to voters:

Change: 49
Experience: 26
Cares about me: 14
Electability: 8

Among Obama supporters:

Change: 73
Cares about me: 14
Electability: 8
Experience: 3

Among Clinton voters
Experience: 47
Change: 27
Cares about me: 14
Electability: 9

Who will be the eventual nominee?
Obama 54, Clinton 43

[Arugula Latte]

54. Interesting. Breaking almost 2 to 1 for "change."

Hope that is true.

[nsd]

59. Those number suggest C 52, O 48.

If 73% of Obama voters selected "change" and so did 27% of Clinton voters, then the fact that "change" was most important to 49% of all voters suggests that Obama gets 48%.

[Zachstar]

57. I HIGHLY doubt this is the case (As it is not just an Obama win but a giant win) However

So far data is indicating that Clinton is NOT likely to take PA by over 10 percent which means that she is going to have a BIG problem with fund raising.