Why Pennsylvania Won't Matter

[FlyingSquirrel]

Current delegate counts: Obama 1647, Clinton 1508

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/





If these numbers generally hold true, giving each candidate 50% of the undecideds, we'll end up with these delegate counts:

Clinton wins PA 52.2% - 45.9% ... 84 Delegates to 74
Clinton wins IN 52.0% - 46.0% ... 38 Delegates to 34
Obama wins NC 58.7% - 39.3% ... 69 Delegates to 46

Total change by May 6:

Clinton + 168, Obama + 177

But let's say she does much better.

Give her 56% to 44% in PA: 88 Delegates to 70
Give her 54.5% to 45.5% in IN: 39 Delegates to 33
Give her 43.5% to 56.5% in NC: 50 Delegates to 65

Clinton +177, Obama +168

Ever heard the phrase, Too little, too late?

That leads to the following totals:

Clinton 1685, Obama 1815

Obama leads by 130 in the best case scenario for Hillary on May 6.

Now guess what? After that there are just 220 Pledged Delegates up for grabs, and 308 Superdelegates.

Let's say something crazy happens and Clinton wins the remaining PD's, 130 to 90.

Final Delegate Count without Undeclared Supers:

Clinton 1815, Obama 1905

Obama still wins by 90 delegates. If MI and FL were counted as-is (with Uncommitted vote in MI going to Obama), he would still be ahead by 34 delegates.

In that EXTREMELY unlikely scenario, Clinton would need to win 59.8% of the remaining undeclared Supers, vs 51.3% for Obama to clinch the nomination.

MUCH more likely, however, would be for MI and FL to remain uncounted until there is a nominee. Howard Dean has made it pretty clear that this is the outcome he prefers.

In that case, Clinton needs to overcome a minimum 90-delegate lead among 308 Supers.

So, she'd need 67.9% of them. Obama could clinch it with only 38.6% of them.

-----------

The longer this goes on, the more people will be swayed by the math and the more Superdelegates will jump off the fence and endorse one or the other. Since all the biggest states will have voted by May 6, I expect to see a Superdelegate Landslide soon after North Carolina.

[cliffordu]

1. I'm thinking you're right on the money.

Kicked!!

[Writer]

2. Q: Does either candidate reach 2,025 delegates?

If the answer is no, then all of this is moot.

[Political Heretic]

4. Yes.

with supers.

[Gore1FL]

16. One has to.

when you divide the delegates by 2, one ends up with at least 2025.

Frankly, after the Larry King interview last night, I suspect the supers are going to commit sooner rather than later.

[goldcanyonaz]

19. Neither without the help of SD's, which were deemed undemocratic early on if they helped Clinton.

Now they're all the rage around here.

[FlyingSquirrel]

22. I've never understood this argument.

Of COURSE the Supers have to be a part of the 2,024. They're factored in from the very beginning.

[goldcanyonaz]

23. Me either.

[DerekJ]

32. Only if they turned over the will of the people. If the SDs go Clinton way, and she is ahead, we

won't complain. Unlike you.

[johnnydrama]

3. my prediction still stands

0 change after PA, IN & NC

[Major Hogwash]

5. She won't win in North Carolina in just 2 weeks.

She might win in Indiana, but it will be wiped out in North Carolina.

And Indiana is the LAST state that she has a chance to win!

It's over already.

[Major Hogwash]

8. John King has already done all of these "best case scenarios" for Hillary, and she still loses.

So, I don't understand all the animosity from people here who can't accept the fact that it's over already.

John King said she'd have to win 70% in ALL of the remaining states and hope that twice as many superdelegates endorse her than Obama.

But, after her "bomb Iran" comments, I wouldn't count on that happening.

[Zachstar]

25. Bingo!

[Bake]

30. There's still Kentucky, I believe.

Hillary will win in KY.

Bake

[datopbanana]

6. no no... you see DEMOCRACY doesn't matter to HRC peeps. They only care about MOMENTUM

as long as HRC wins more of the contests at the end (the beginning and middle don't matter) she should get the nom.

[sandnsea]

7. Not to be rude, but - duh

We've been saying this for weeks now. She should have quit when she lost the Texas delegates. All she is doing is hurting Obama at this point. He's the candidate.

[FlyingSquirrel]

18. I know, I've been saying it too.

Just thought I'd say it one more time today.

:)

[Bolo Boffin]

9. Math: it's super effective! n/t

[Life Long Dem]

10. Yeah but it's

so close the SD's will need to decide this! :sarcasm:

[InsultComicDog]

11. So I shouldn't bother voting today? nt

[Fluffdaddy]

12. Nice way to "try" and spin a HUGE win by Hillary as meaning nothing

[Gore1FL]

17. A huge win is 75%

It's pretty much a foregone conclusion she isn't going to get that.

[FlyingSquirrel]

20. "Spinning" is lying.

I'm just being factual here. She may win big in PA (a lot of people are predicting 55-56%) but I think it'll be more like 52% to 47% at the most. But even if she does win big, any momentum she may gain will end in NC. I guess you could call NC Obama's "firewall state" at this point. There is no wildfire change sweeping the country in favor of Hillary now, and there won't be one after PA even if she wins 56% there. While a certain percentage of the Supers may believe Hillary's the better candidate, probably an equal percentage believes Obama's the better candidate. The rest will vote based on their state or local district's vote, or with the pledged delegate winner or overall popular vote winner. If Hillary wins the overall popular vote (including MI and FL), whatever gains she'll get by that will be offset by those going with the pledged delegate winner.

Even if Obama only took 45% in the remaining states after PA, IN and NC, Hillary would pick up 121 PD's and Obama would pick up 99.

In the best case scenario above for Hillary, where she had 1685 vs 1815 after PA, IN and NC, that would lead to a final total of 1806 to 1914 in June without the remaining Supers.

She would then need 70.8% of the 308 remaining supers to reach 2,024.

Obama would only need 35.7% of the 308 remaining supers to reach 2,024.

That's not spinning, that's telling it like it is.

[Window]

13. Great breakdown.

:kick:

[phrigndumass]

14. K/R ... Thanks FlyingSquirrel

:thumbsup:

[zulchzulu]

15. Despite all the hoopla of a PA win, Hillary would get 10 more delegates than Obama

She'll still be broke and her campaign hanging by a couple threads. She might even be bitter.

[Generator]

21. Except of course Hil will fight and scheme to her last dying

second of a chance. As I said on the election will be stolen anyway thread-maybe we should get her as the nominee-because I know she wouldn't let it be "stolen". She's sacrificed her entire life for this moment. If anyone will fight for Hillary, it's Hillary. She's more tenacious than a barnyard dog. (Channeling Dr. Phil for ya!)

If she bows out "gracefully" I will have to eat my words. I think she'll find more mud and throw it harder first.

[Zodiak]

27. I thought finding more mud and throwing it harder is her PA strategy

Seriously, is there any more mud lying around for her to wallow in? She is already receiving benefit from Limbaugh and Richard Mellon Sciafe.....can one get any lower?

Wait...don't answer that.

[PoliticalAmazon]

24. We know PA "won't matter" if Hillary loses. n/t

[Texas Hill Country]

26. you guys are so funny lol

[uponit7771]

28. The increased dem registration is worth the long primary

[Eurobabe]

29. PA might get the SDs off their asses to come out for Obama

One can only hope. Let the flood begin! :bounce:

[FlyingSquirrel]

31. Oh, one more thing. Obama is GUARANTEED to reach 1,627 Pledged Delegates by May 20

at the latest.

That's over half the Pledged delegates. Currently 8 Superdelegates have joined the "Pelosi Club" on DemConWatch, and I'll be willing to bet there are a lot more out there who will endorse once Obama's clinched the Pledged Delegate Leader position.

May 20. Wait for it.........

It's less than a month away!

:bounce:

[FlyingSquirrel]

33. kick