If Obama Could Win Missouri, He Could Definitely Win Pennsylvania

[redstate_democrat]

The Demographics are similar. You have Kansas City and St Louis on opposite sides of the state. The middle is Repug, sort of like Pennsylvania. I think this Penn race will be a very tight race like Missouri was. SUSA had the race at 54% for Hillary to 43% for Obama a DAY before the election.

I think some people are underestimating Obama. He is in Pittsburgh tonight with a huge crowd. I think we may be surprised. Both sides know this is a tight race. The wild card here is what will these undecideds do and where do the new voters go. The newly registered voters will most likely go for Obama in big numbers. The undecideds will probably break 60-40, undecideds make up 5-7% of those voting tomorrow.

I think there will be a very very big turnout.

[usregimechange]

1. South is rethug, middle has major universities, north mildly rethug

But the state wide demos are very similar. He won MO by winning university counties and KC, esp stlc

[redstate_democrat]

5. Obama slaughtered (figuratively) Hillary in St. Louis City and suburbs

and in Kansas City. He did well in Columbia as well. He wasn't even expecting to win Missouri. But he pulled it out. Even in some rural counties, Obama was leading Hillary. So...

[morningglory]

7. I used to read the BBC news on the web before there were so many good

lefty sites. The headline would be like this every darn day: Brighton destroys Leeds! It would just blow my mind thinking the staid, polite brits in one town had attacked and destroyed completely another town. Turned out, every darn day, it was all about a soccer (or football as they say) match, and they took me in every darn day. Over here a sporting event would not be the head, would it? Off topic, but you got me thinking...

[Gore1FL]

6. We have universities all over the state

The four main campuses at Columbia, Kansas City, St Louis (Good ITS department, there!), and Rolla. Then there are the other State Universities, In Cape, Kirksville, Springfield, and I think maybe warrensburg? not sure about that one. -- Those are the State schools

[MadMaddie]

2. Don't forget state like Wyoming...

The turnout will be huge.

[redstate_democrat]

8. After seeing the crowd Obama pulled in Philly on a FRIDAY night

35 thousand people with overflow? On a Friday night?

[tekisui]

3. I like your take.

Undecideds are 10-12%, so there could be real surprises.

[rwheeler31]

4. Optimistic ,but he won Kansas and Missouri we can hope.

[TheDonkey]

9. The key is to making it close it Pittsburgh. Hillary could win, and win big but Obama has a chance

and if he does win even if by 1 vote it is GAME OVER Hillary and I would be one happy camper.

[Honeycombe8]

10. Oh, pleeez. Clinton will win PA. Accept it and move on. The only thing that

matters now is how much he crushed her 20 point lead.

It is NOT a good thing to build expectations, so that even with a "win," people are disappointed. A "win" for Obama in PA will be a loss of 8% or less. Clinton had a 20% lead until recently. Then it was 15%. Then it was 11%. Now, most polls have her at a 5% to 10% lead in PA. That is a win right there for Obama.

You don't hear Clinton out and about saying she's going to win by a landslide, do you? That's because she's going to spin her win, even if it's a marginal one, that the tide has turned, and the voters have spoken, yada yada yada. Obama will, too.

The REAL deal is...if Clinton doesn't win by more than 10%, she will be heavily pressured by those around her to drop out. Some more superdelegates will endorse Obama. Her campaign contributions, already paltry, will dry up.

In other words, if Obama loses by 8%....he will have won. PA is HER territory. She is EXPECTED to win. She WILL win.

[redstate_democrat]

11. And I'm saying he has a chance to win Penn.

as in take the whole damn thing.