Katz predicts: PA- Clinton 54% Obama 46%

[Colobo]

Don't believe in the polls. Obama will avoid the blowout, but Clinton will win by 8 to 10 pts.

[anonymous171]

1. Sounds accurate.

[Tatiana]

2. 52-48 Clinton n/t

[grantcart]

3. Grant predicts Obam by 3

My reference is the closest comparison is that of Wisconsin.

The demogaphics are very similar but what I think is even more similar is that they are the two places that were 'stand alone' primaries where Obama could concentrate all of his resources on a single battle, unlike most other primaries where he had to divide his operation (like Texas, Ohio, Vermont and RI).

Another similarity is that PPP polling was the first to actually suggest that Obama was going to win and they are by themselves here as well. PPP has had a few bad primaries as well but what I am thinking is they may be better at judging cross over votes than other pollsters.

Even the differences may help Obama. Wisconsin was an open primary and PA a closed one. That on the surface seems to favor Clinton but I think it will actually favor Obama. The reason is that he was more organized in getting people registered a month ago including independents and disaffected Republicans. By having a closed primary it will actually prevent those republicans who are afraid of running against Obama from entering at the last moment and disrupting the primary results.

Finally the really big difference is that PA local machines favor Clinton but again I don't know if that really helps as in a lot of places the people have paid very little attention to the endorsments by their local politicians.






But I wouldn't bet anything over a beer on it.

[Colobo]

4. I hope you're right, Grant.

I truly do...

[grantcart]

8. what I am really hoping is that a bunch from Pennsylvanians will weigh in

[BenDavid]

5. As long as she wins by 1% it is still a win and should show that

B. Hussein Obama is not the best to be the nominee. If HRC wins 7 out of the 10 primaries left and whether she wins by 1% or 15% it again will show that B.Hussein Obama is not the one to be the nominee.

[jackson_dem]

11. Kennedy won PA by 0.2% and that kept his underdog campaign alive

You are right BD and history supports you.

[wileedog]

18. Did Superdelegates overturn the vote for Kennedy?

No, not so much.

History is wondering what the fuck the two of you are talking about.

[Blondiegrrl]

22. LOL!

:toast:

[jackson_dem]

30. No, that is because Kennedy was down 2:1 in delegates. Clinton is down 4% with wins coming up

[Buzz Clik]

14. Have you been paying attention?

Um, no.

[cliffordu]

15. Meds, Benny, Meds!!!!

Enough. You are as deluded as I am when I don't get my Lamictal.

I ain't kidding.

:hi:

[Frank Booth]

31. BUT OBAMA'S MIDDLE NAME IS HUSSEIN, GODDMAMNIT!!

[cliffordu]

38. Walter, walter, walter....SHOUTING MEANS YOU LOSE!!!!

AND I DON'T CARE IF YOU DON'T FUCKING ROLL ON SHOMER SHOBBAS!!

Look. I don't give a fuck what his name is, why do you think I'm talking about that, anyway??

Benny's math could use a little help.

[RBInMaine]

16. So what right wing Republican blog do you usually post for?

[Shakespeare]

21. DRA

Dumbass Racists of America

[Quixote1818]

27. I disagree. Anything less than 5 will start the party leaders to start pushing for her to wrap

things up.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

6. Looks about right. nt

[kid a]

7. What were the polls going into Missouri? A SLIM Obama win.

[zulchzulu]

9. It will be closer than that...it may be a 1% win for Obama

Because of all the negative campaigning by Clinton, there are going to be a LOT of people out there to vote for Obama. I do like the idea that Obama supporters should assume that it's an 8% advantage to Clinton to make the fight even harder.

[Buzz Clik]

10. Yep. That's how I see it.

Ask not for whom the (Liberty) bell tolls, it tolls for the lack of the mandatory 15%+ blowout that was necessary to keep the campaign alive.

[RBInMaine]

12. If it's by 10 or less, she LOSES the hope of "momentum."

[rocktivity]

13. A loss of less than ten points for Obama is a BIG win.

because Hillary will virtually mathematically eliminated. She needs a MINIMUM of 65% of the vote in ALL the remaining contests if she wants ANY chance of successfully appealing to the delegates.

:headbang:
rocknation

[MarjorieG]

17. Add for political machinery 'making it happen' for Hillary

[davidpdx]

19. I tend to agree with you

I think it will be a 5-8% victory for Clinton and she'll pick up a few more delegates then Obama, but not enough to make even a scratch in his lead.

[malik flavors]

20. Anything in single digits would be great imo.

[Quixote1818]

23. I predict a nail biter because Obama has momentum Clinton 51 Obama 49. nt

[my3boyz]

24. Some radio host from PA on "Race to the Whitehouse" said Obama would win by abt 2...

The panel was stunned. LOL He said if it did not come true he would not be available next week to come back on the show to clean it up.

[Catherina]

25. I predict he wins. I could be wrong but I'm still looking forward to Tuesday.

I hope PA puts the Hillary out of our misery so we can get on to the serious business of beating McCain.

[Avalux]

26. I believe my family and friends. Obama squeaks out a win by less than 2%.

From what I'm hearing and reading, I think the polls are grossly underestimating the support Obama has among the college kids and Republican crossovers.

[meow mix]

28. it'll come down to a few hundred vote spread.. and there will be many lawsuits and recounts.

[Quixote1818]

33. New Mexico II

:banghead:

[wisteria]

29. I think Obama is going to win in PA Tuesday. n/t

[JanusAscending]

42. Me too Wisteria !!

I don't want to raise anyones expectations too much, but I feel it in my bones. Barack is going to CRUSH her!! She's going to think she's been run over by a steamroller!!! I say......Obama 60%.......Hillary, 40% !!:woohoo: :applause:

[Drunken Irishman]

32. Unlike Ohio, nothing really has undercut Obama's momentum.

A week before Ohio, that NAFTA business was unleashed and it really stalled any momentum he had in that state. Even then, though, he was down by double digits in many polls. And even though many pundits predicted Obama would lose support with the "bitter" flap, it probably came a week too early for Clinton. Had it been released THIS Saturday instead of last, it would've played a far bigger role and now it appears Obama has regained his momentum.

Will it be enough to put him over the top? I don't know, but it wouldn't surprise me if he won.

[Quixote1818]

35. Good analysis. I think PA and OH are very similar but as you pointed out

a couple of things she had in her favor have changed and Hillary's likability has dropped since then. There is no doubt in my mind it will be closer than OH and he could pull out a win.

[AX10]

34. 57% Clinton / 42% Obama

It could be more, or it could be less.
Still a win is a win.

[Quixote1818]

39. Ohio was 54 to 44. I seriously doubt she will beat her numbers in OH

though it's possible.

[PseudoIntellect]

36. Wasn't she up by like 3-4 in OH in polls, then won by 9-10?

Any reason why we shouldn't expect the same for PA?

[Quixote1818]

40. Read post #32

There are a couple of things against her this time that were working in her favor in OH.

[ZinZen]

37. Yep, sounds about right

I am hoping it will be within five points but oh well...

40,000 in Philly for Obama tonight is not too shabby.

[Colobo]

41. Kick!