Damn it! What is wrong with Pennsylvania??

[msallied]

Obama is leading hugely in the national polls. He's pulling ahead in the remaining states (well, except for KY), and it's looking better and better for him in the GE against McCain. What is holding him back from making a major jump for the lead in Penn? It's frustrating!

[AX10]

1. PA is not interested in jumping on the bandwagon.

[msallied]

8. lol.. it's either jump the bandwagon or latch onto a sinking ship.

[cliffordu]

2. Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, alabama in between....???

That's what I heard, anyway.



:popcorn:

[BlooInBloo]

3. The discovery of what America is truly like begins to dawn.

[redstate_democrat]

4. She has the establishment behind her 100% in Penn.

That is the only reason she leads by 5%

[anonymous171]

5. Clinton is holding him back. He's going to have to knock her out in the debates.

[grantcart]

6. who says anything is wrong with them. They may surprise you next week

[Skittles]

9. I don't care about polls at all

they seem to be wrong all to often

[msallied]

10. I just want to know what's holding them back from going all out! lol

[cemaphonic]

7. unfavorable demographics and entrenched party machine

Don't sweat it, he seems to have chopped Clinton's lead to the point that it won't come close to saving her.

[msallied]

11. While you are right...

A victory for Obama would resonate amazingly for his campaign and finally shut up the naysayers. At least the ones who haven't completely fallen off the deep end.

[cemaphonic]

27. Oh yeah, he and his PA crew should definitley keep going.

Even a squeaker of a win would rewrite the wall in 20-foot day-glo colors. But it really is pretty amazing that Obama has overcome all of Clinton's advantages coming into the primary to the extent that he has.

[MercutioATC]

12. PA, OH, WV and KY have the same essential demographics.

They're going to go for Clinton...

[msallied]

14. It just pains me to know

that the states that have been most hurt by the Bush economy and NAFTA are supporting her.

[MercutioATC]

17. I hear ya. I'm in northern Ohio...anything south of Columbus is below the Mason-Dixon line...

...or so southern Ohio residents seem to think...

[msallied]

18. LOL... I grew up in Dayton.

I am familiar with that sentiment. :)

[MercutioATC]

22. I went to college in Springfield...coming from the Cleveland area, it was a shock.

There were good and bad experiences, but it's definitely a completely different mindset.

[Blue_In_AK]

29. I was born in Wilmington

and spent my first seven years on a family farm in Clinton County.

[smalll]

13. Do you have to ask? Do you?

They're clinging to guns, God, racism, anti-immigrant feelings and anti-trade sentiments! Surely we all know that by now? ;)

[2rth2pwr]

15. The polls in CA had him winning, Hillary won. IN NH the pundits were digging her grave,

she won again.

The polls in PA show Obama has a chance to keep it close. Hillary will win with

another surprising margin. This time it's a game changer, and there won't be a way for Obama to stop her.

[anonymous171]

16. lol.

[MercutioATC]

19. I'm all for enthusiasm...but do you see a no-win point?

If her delegate deficit remains essentially the same after Indiana, will you admit that she has a real problem?

[anonymous171]

23. Clinton supporters don't believe in delegates or anything else that doesn't benefit the GOP

[2rth2pwr]

28. This is why the SD's are waiting for the results of the next few primaries-

Perhaps unsurprisingly, we've read a bunch of stories suggesting that Clinton has a "super delegate problem." But by and large the super delegates haven't budged. Most of those who were undecided in early March are undecided as of today. According to Dem Convention Watch, Clinton had a 97-delegate lead on February 10th. By March 9th, Obama had cut that lead to 39. But since then, despite all of these stories about Clinton having no real chance, Obama has netted just 13 super delegates. As a group, the super delegates have not moved. More than 40% remain uncommitted.

I think this is curious. They surely do not want a bitter convention battle, so why haven't they brought an end to this? I think their reticence has to do with Obama's terrible performance in Ohio. He not only lost, he was roundly defeated - even after his great victories in Wisconsin, Virginia, and Maryland. The nature of his defeat might be giving the super delegates pause.

Specifically, Obama's problem in Ohio was with white voters. Consider the following chart:

As you can see, Obama did worse in Ohio among whites than in these other major states. Again, what is so intriguing about the Ohio result is that it came amidst stories of how Clinton was finished. That curiosity continues. Analysts give Clinton very long odds - but Pennsylvania Democrats haven't hopped aboard Obama's bandwagon.

Unfortunately, the exit polls only tell us so much. Nevertheless, we've seen enough data to know which socioeconomic groups he's having trouble with: rural/small town whites who do not make a lot of money. We can confirm this by looking at the counties in Ohio's sixth congressional district, which makes up most of the Ohio River Valley. This is the premier swing district of the 21st century. Bush won it by 5,000 votes in 2000 and 2004. Obama did horribly there last month, as the following chart details.

What's more, in geographically large congressional districts, you can always find at least a county or two where Clinton beat him by 25 points.

Beyond Ohio, Obama seems to have had this problem again and again, as Sean Oxendine illustrates in this incisive essay. Big wins in places like Virginia and Mississippi often belie a weakness with the same types of voters.

This could be a potential problem for Obama come November, but the reason is not obvious. Democrats should not worry about whether the primary voters who supported Clinton last month will support Obama in November. They probably will. Voting in a primary election is a sign that the voter is a strong partisan, and therefore unlikely to support the opposition in the fall. Nor, for that matter, are they likely to abstain from voting.

Rather, the concern for Democrats is whether Obama's poor performance among white, strongly partisan Democrats is a sign he will be weak among white, persuadable voters. We're talking about weak partisans and Independents. They're the ones who swing elections in Ohio. Obviously, they differ from strong Democrats in terms of partisanship - but they still have many socioeconomic characteristics in common with them. The weak partisans and Indies are the relatives, friends, neighbors and coworkers of the strong Democrats who voted so overwhelmingly for Clinton last month. While the persuadables do not share their strong partisan orientation, they might share the same disinclination to Obama. The strong partisans expressed it in March by voting for Clinton; the weak partisans and Independents might express it in November by voting for McCain.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/04/obama_small_town_whites_and_the_sup.html

[FrenchieCat]

24. She dug her own grave.....

we will just have to wait for her to get in it....and she will...she will.

Watch and listen.

[Gore1FL]

25. yewp.. there is no way he'll stop the steamroll

of Clinton getting 75% in every remaining contest... What are the odds of him mustering 26% in NC for example...

[Sulawesi]

30. Wow, that is an interesting perspective on the current state of the race...

:eyes:

[BzaDem]

20. Tis why Obama does so badly among many demographics. It's always what's wrong with THEM.

Not what's wrong with Obama. Why can't Obama appeal to PA voters. It's always something wrong with them.

[msallied]

26. Frankly, people who aren't receptive to a message of hope and change

after everything this country has been drug through do have something wrong with them, but they have my sympathies. It's like a collective psychological effect similar to battered wife syndrome.

[bhikkhu]

21. Nothing at all, just every state is its own self

with its own history and traditions. And regions in each state are also prone to the same.

I count myself lucky to be in a state with a strong "blue" tradition, but I live in a small county seat which invariably has gone red. There is nothing I can do about it, but talk to people and be my own advocate here for reason and sense. As Barack would probably say, those that vote against their best interests are not oblivious to what their best interests are, so there are certainly things to talk about. It goes well enough, but I am glad there is a big population center to carry the state!

[kentuck]

31. PA is the perfect example of a strong political machine at work...

Hillary has a very popular Governor and the political machinery of the state behind her. She is expected to win big. Obama is a grass roots candidate. He does not have the political machine of the state behind him. It is as simple as that. Where would Hillary be if she were running in Obama's shoes?

[Phillycat]

32. We tend to want more than pretty words in a candidate.

We like tenacious fighters. I feel terrible that we won't just be assimilated. Wait. No I don't. :)

[Zachstar]

33. Chill! PA has been an expected Clinton win for months now!!

Don't worry he reduced a Clinton blowout to under 10 so it is good news!!

Don't worry! Phonebank!!!

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/phonebankmap/