PA POLL: Hillary 50, Obama 44. No change. "Bittergate" bombs...

[jefferson_dem]

Poll: Clinton keeps 6-point lead over Obama in Pa.
by BRETT LIEBERMAN, Of The Patriot-News
Tuesday April 15, 2008, 6:00 AM

Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama can both find something to like in a new Quinnipiac University poll that finds she may have stopped the hemhorraging and that his own wounds may not be as severe as feared.

Democratic presidential hopefuls Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama shake hands during the Compassion Forum at Messiah College, in Grantham, Pa.Democratic Party leaders, on the other hand, may not be as overjoyed by results that show the dragged out primary fight for the Democratic presidential nomination could prove costly to the party in November.

Nearly one-in-five Obama supporters say they will vote for Republican John McCain rather than Clinton if she is the nominee, and more than a quarter of her supporters say they will vote for the Republican if Obama gets the nomination.

The survey out this morning finds that Clinton has stalled the Illinois senator's momentum that closed a double-digit gap to within six percentage points, with the Democratic presidential race in Pennsylvania exactly where it was a week ago.

Clinton maintains a 50 percent to 44 percent lead, according to the survey of 2,103 likely voters in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary a week away.

"Sen. Hillary Clinton is fighting off Sen. Barack Obama's drive to make it a close race in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary, holding the six-point edge she had a week ago. She seems to have halted the erosion of whites and white women in particular from her campaign," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

But Obama can find comfort in that this latest poll that shows little indication that the controversy over his remarks about people in small town Pennsylvania may not be taking as big a toll as feared.

His comments that these people "get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations" has dominated the race, and worried his campaign aides, since Friday as the two candidates reached out to working-class voters.

<SNIP>

http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2008/04/clinton_maintains_6point_lead.html

[BeyondGeography]

1. Fair enough

:thumbsup:

[datopbanana]

3. it includes all of post- toasties-to- the-bitters- gate other monday. so im satisfied.

[cali]

2. Don't underestimate her!

She has a whole week to make herself even more detestable to the voters.

[Tesha]

28. And we haven't heard Bll Clinton sing his "Bitter!" encore yet. (NT)

[Tesha]

70. Well, does last night's "Stephanapoulos-o-Fest" re: Bittergate count as a Clinton "hit"?

George wouldn't hold some subtle biases about the candidates,
would he? After all, it was only for a few years that he worked
at the Clinton Whitehouse and was paid by the Clinton team...

Tesha

[shaniqua6392]

4. I think we may need to wait a few more days before we celebrate.

These things have a way of trickling down through the gossip grapevine and it takes a little longer to show up.

[jefferson_dem]

7. True.

But so far so good. The only survey showing any sign of negative movement is from the dodgy ARG firm.

[shaniqua6392]

10. I am watching the Today Show right now

and they are discussing who is more "blue collar". This will all depend on what the media does with it. I have seen it discussed on every media outlet this morning. I am wary of the media turning on Obama. They want this thing to be a battle.

[phrigndumass]

5. Most of the double-digit PA polls seem to be outliers at this point ... graph:

Graph is from SurveyUSA:

[FatDave]

32. Uh oh.

[Zachstar]

6. Most polls show him within 10. If he stays within 10 Clintons net delegate lead may be low

Single digits due to the way the delegates are awarded.

[tekisui]

11. No matter her margin of win in PA at this point,

It will be eclipsed by Obama in NC. Same for IN. She will not gain enough Delegates to match what Obama has lined up in NC.

And the Western States to end it (OR, MT, SD-Obama)!!

[Zachstar]

13. It does matter.

Because if she picks up say 30 delegates then she will stay in to the end because she will feel that she can retake the lead!

I think it is important for Obama to campaign to keep her net gain in the single digits.

[tekisui]

16. Any gain in PA will keep her in till June 3rd.

Only an Obama win in PA will end it early.

[Zachstar]

18. That is not 100 percent

You see its about the superdelegates. Clintons whole extended campaign was about getting to the convention and having the remaining superdelegates overturn the pledged.

However, Now it is looking that Obama will overtake Clinton in Supers by about mid may. At that point it will be pointless for her to continue and she will be 100 percent defeated. So I suspect she will exit just before she loses that lead.

So how she wins in PA will determine how the supers move. So keeping it to single digits is important.

Please Phonebank!

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/phonebankmap/

[tekisui]

20. Marking this for later phonebanking.

:thumbsup:

[Zachstar]

21. Thank you! Please pass it around! Post it in the other topics and lets get phonebanking!

Let us work for a WIN in PA!!

[jefferson_dem]

22. Bad thing for Hillary is the "bittergate" argument is not likely to resonate with the SDs.

They are an informed, engaged lot of politicos - and they know what Obama said was true.

[Zachstar]

24. Worse for her campaigns were her dumbass excuse for why democrats lost in the past.

Which in my view was totally false.

[Cosmocat]

58. Not anymore ... Popular vote ...

is the last lifeline she is hanging on ...

The vote totals are so high now that the the difference in popular vote is getting smaller proportionately ... IMO, being unhinged, and Hill IS unhinged at this point, she is going to try to use the rationalization that for all intents and purposes the popular vote is a tie, then continue to try and go negative on Obama until something actually sticks enough to try to steal the delegate count ...

I don't like it, but I think that is where she is going to go until the party elders make a clear call for the SDs to make a call one way or another in mass ...

[Mooney]

50. She would need a completely devastating, unprecedented blowout victory

to net 30 delegates over Obama in PA, and she's not going to get one. The possibility of her carrying any state by that kind of margin was neutralized in February by her own shitty campaign strategy. You can't get your ass handed to you by blowout margins in 12 consecutive contests and then start winning by 20-point margins. The stink of "loser" is too hard to wash off at that point. And more significantly, it puts you out of the reach of many, many delegates. Her campaign's strategy of not targeting small, Republican or caucus states is what's killing her, and there's no way to undo that loss of delegates.

Even if she did somehow gain 30 delegates over Obama, it still wouldn't be enough to inflict the kind of damage she needs to inflict on him. It's too late.

[Jawja]

8. I'm afraid Hillary having pounded those

comments into the minds of PENN voters is taking it's toll on Obama, as Obama has no chance now to win Pennsylvania.

I was sure he did until the Clinton's released the bombshell tape they got from an undercover (fraudulent) "journalist" (I guess the Clinton's DID learn something about the use of stealth taping as a means to bring someone down).

We may not see poll numbers RISE for Hillary in Penn; but we also won't see them RISE for Obama now, either.

I hope I am wrong.

[EFerrari]

15. I just heard on Morning Joe that Rendell says the Clintons

don't have "walking around money" for the wards and so will have some trouble with GOTV. That could wind up being more important than anything else.

[Adelante]

33. Rendell's got plenty of walking around money

If he wants to treat.

[davidpdx]

9. If she wins Penn by anything less then 10 points

she's a cooked goose. Even if she pulls of a 10 point win in Indiana, 20 point win in WV and Obama wins by 20 in NC the combined delegates from those four states (including PA) nets her 7 delegates more then Obama (note: I left out Guam since no one knows which way it will go). That would leave her five states and Puerto Rico, with a total of 189 delegates, to catch him in the pledged delegate count.

[mckeown1128]

44. Hillary's campaign and supporters are preparing the argument

that because she is being heavily outspent that if she wins by more than 5 points Obama should drop out. I promise you that is where they are going to try to spin this.

[davidpdx]

67. I have no doubt about that

and you will also hear the popular vote and big states only count spin as well. The funny thing is she isn't winning the popular vote and this notion that we should nominate Hillary because she's the only one that can win big states is ludicrous.

[tekisui]

12. I don't think she can get more than 8% wins in any of the remaining contests.

And she only has the potential to win 4 or 5 of the 10.

[mckeown1128]

43. She wont get more than 8% in PR and PA...

She will however get 30%+ wins in KY WV. She will lose OR, MT, and SD.

[tekisui]

60. She will not get 30%+ wins anywhere. She doesn't pull those kinds

of numbers. The ONLY contest that she won with more than 59% was Arkansas, her home state. It's not gonna happen in KY or WV>

[mckeown1128]

65. I have looked at the demographics of WV and KY...

and I promise you that she will get 30%+ wins in both states (unfortunetly) Those are going to be her two strongest states of the whole season.(and they wont be nearly enough for her to win the nomination.

[Yukari Yakumo]

68. Then be thankful for...

PA has about 25% and NC has about 20% of the remaining pledged delegates.

If Obama keeps it close, say 10 points or less in PA, and crushes her in NC by 20 points, then HRH HRC would need over 80% of the remaining PDs to even tie Obama.

[tekisui]

69. bookmarking, I don't see it happening.

[mucifer]

14. It doesn't matter. She doesn't care that this will hurt him in the general

election where republicans care more about this fake crap.

[tekisui]

23. That's the thing. Obama lost zero Dems on this.

It keeps pukes away.

I bet Hillary lost a few Dems with her "Elitist" shit.

[datopbanana]

17. SILVER BULLET ineffective. Turns out Obama is Superman, not Vampire

[quantass]

62. Maybe i have it reversed but is the Silver Bullet for a Mr. Vampire or for a Mr. Werewolf ?

if i remmeber wasnt the silver bullet for werewolves and vampires are the stake to heart...or maybe i have it reversed?

[datopbanana]

66. i had no i idea so i wiki's and........

you're right. and im kinda right. and something else

"The best known magical creature which is vulnerable to a silver bullet is a werewolf. The werewolf's vulnerability to silver actually dates back to the legend of the Beast of Gévaudan, in which a gigantic wolf is killed by a person wielding a gun loaded with silver bullets."

"The term originates from folklore. Traditionally, the silver bullet is the only kind of bullet for firearms that is effective against a witch, vampire, monster, or a person living a charmed life."

apparently it's effective against elitist dems too. dont tell the repubs.

[aaroh]

19. I just don't understand how voters can leap from a democrat to John McCain

I think its either a bluff or voters are self-centred and wants to get back at the other democratic nominee. How can a vote switcher believe in McCain's policies, its like contrasting night and day. I'd rather sit out or vote for a fringe candidate than John McCain.

[mucifer]

25. How do you explain reagan? Don't overestimate the American voter

[Vinca]

27. Voters don't know McCain yet because we're not running against him.

Wait till they hear he wants to take health insurance away from employers and have people buy their own and get a tax credit that pays for part of it. (No provision for pre-existing conditions.) Wait till they know he is anti-abortion and will make your pregnant, teenage daughter bear a child she doesn't want. We've got 2 justices holding on by a hair hoping for a Democratic president, but they can't last forever. McCain exhibits an exaggerated trait of Republicans - the "Me" mentality. I've got mine, too bad about you. On steroids. It's a whole lot easier when the wife is worth more than $100 million.

[quantass]

63. Exactly!

[FatDave]

34. Obama and McCain are both popular with independents

I would expect most of the play to be in that group.

[jackson_dem]

26. What was the date of the poll? That is crucial. We had one release yesterday that was pre-small town

[berni_mccoy]

29. Apr. 9-13

[jackson_dem]

54. Thanks. Moot question now, though. It is official: bittergate is a bust

I think enough evidence has rolled in by now to officially declare bittergate to be a bust, at least thus far.

[Hope And Change]

30. K & R!

:kick:

[Medusa]

31. And now she's being booed when she brings it up

says a lot, once again Hil has miscalculated and read the pulse of the American people wrongly.

[Scurrilous]

35. Good news.

K & R :thumbsup:

[jefferson_dem]

36. Full Poll Results Here -

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1168

Some details:

White voters for Clinton 57 - 37 percent, compared to 56 - 38 percent last week;
Black voters back Obama 86 - 8 percent, compared to 75 - 17 percent;
Women back Clinton 54 - 40 percent, unchanged from 54 - 41 percent last week;
Men are for Obama 51 - 43 percent, compared to a 48 - 44 percent tie last week;
Reagan Democrats back Clinton 55 - 40 percent;
Voters under 45 go with Obama 55 - 39, while older voters back Clinton 55 - 40 percent.

[still_one]

37. Anyone who says they will vote for mccain if their Democratic candidate isn't chosen, ISN'T a

or progressive, and are complete fools

[mod mom]

38. excellent news!

[Moderate-Democrate]

39. Let us see if polling will be the same in a few days

[berni_mccoy]

40. Here's how successful she was (PIC)

[mod mom]

41. " Democratic presidential race in Pennsylvania exactly where it was a week ago."

Since the Obama campaign is doing well financial, I am saving my donation dollars to give any Dem who will run against Hillary's senate seat. I believe there is a grand opportunity for a progressive to win against this most divisive DLCer! We were giving $100-month to Obama-now it will be pooled for a run against Hillary!

[Zachstar]

42. Um you do realize that you will have to wait till 2012 to do that right?

And by then you will likely have spent the money on other things.

If I may suggest that a donation now is better overall.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

45. I'm surprised!

I really thought the guns and god comment would toss a couple of points her way. I think I said something along that line here. I guess I was wrong.

[Mooney]

49. Never underestimate HRC's ability

to act like a jackass and alienate people.

She entered this race with very conceivable advantage. She's been a household name for the better part of two decades, she was the presumptive nominee for over year, and she led in every poll by 20-30 points. To piss that kind of advantage away is truly remarkable.

[Cosmocat]

59. She ran into Obama ...

had it not been for Obama, she would have locked up the nomination already ...

Edwards ... Maybe without Obama he would have caught some of the wind Obama has caught, because he was running basically the same campaign, change and empowerment ...

But, he obviously did not have Obama's juice ...

Before she started to actually be challenged by Obama, she actually was running her campaign on the high road for the most part, but once Obama started to challenge her, she has gone negative ...

I have always said the reason the Rs hate Hill and Bill so much is that they play the R game and beat them at it ...

I think that would work, except she has run into a candidate, AT THE RIGHT TIME, who is running the exact opposite campaign ...

The media can't get their feeble minds around it, but outside of the 25% R bubble, the REALLY squeeky wheels, there is a cognitive dissonance the forms the reside after these faux dust ups ... And, after 20 years of scorched earth politics, people are open to a higher minded politics ...

SO, what happens is while the media revels in this crape, most of the country kind of gets repulsed by the negativity, and comes closer to the call to a higher mindedness ...

Advantage Obama ...

[rndmprsn]

46. K&R

[Buzz Clik]

47. New poll leaves Hillary with "bitter beer" face.

[thewiseguy]

48. Thanks. Is there a debate this Wednesday?

[DevonRex]

51. Way cool! nt

[rodeodance]

52. "stalled the Illinois senator's momentum" Good on.!!

[book_worm]

53. anything under double digits is good for Obama.

[jackson_dem]

55. It depends on how you define "good". If he wins the race is over

So I don't think him losing by 7-8 is a good thing for him, just the best way to lose. Anything over double digits will have a bigger psychological effect, although keep in mind Ted Kennedy won PA by 0.2% and that kept him alive in 1980 (even though he was down 2:1 in delegates. Clinton is very close in delegates as a percentage.) and he actually took it to the convention.

[jefferson_dem]

56. Survey USA also shows no "bitter bounce" for Hillary. Obama actually picks up four points...

Pennsylvania 4/12 through 4/14
Clinton 54, Obama 40

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_surveyusa_penn_dems.php

[acetylyne]

57. Yet Kudlow and company were touting Hillary up 20%?

I eat dinner with my father on Mondays and he usually has Jim Kramer on the XM followed by Kudlow and Cohorts. I listen, usually aggravated, but happy for the insight into the 'other side' as it were. Yesterday the big news was Bitter-gate as well, claiming that their new poll of polls showed Hillary was up 20% over Obama!

Now this.

The amount of times I've been able to refute news I hear on the radio/tv with news I can find for myself on the internet is becoming disconcerting.

[thoughtcrime1984]

61. Kudlow- Mr. Trickle down economics

defines elitism, he is a worthless shill for the wealthy.

[Az_lefty]

64. I heard that 20% BS on Lou Dobbs last night...

started yelling at the TV and the dog wouldn't come near me for an hour.