Poll Updates April 9: Obama cloing in PA, Overtakes McCain in GE Ras Poll

[tekisui]

PA Democratic Polls:

PPP Clinton-46 Obama-43
Strategic Vision Clinton-47 Obama-42


Democratic National Polling:

Rassmusen Obama-50 Clinton-41


General Election, National, Rasmussen:

Obama-46 McCain-45
McCain-47 Clinton44


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

Obama has the trend and the momentum!

[thereismore]

1. It looks like O really is closing in PA. It's real my friends! nt

[democrattotheend]

4. Don't get your hopes up

I think the margins we are seeing now are the best we can hope for. I still think he's going to lose by at least 10 despite what the polls say, because her machine advantage gives her a few extra points.

[thereismore]

2. I see single digits in PA! Woohoo! nt

[bluestateguy]

3. Two weeks ago Razzie had Obama down 10 to McCain

And if he is up one over McCain in a Razzie poll, then the real number is likely higher.

[wowimthere]

5. So this poll represents the real will of the voters but with Rendell and the vote rigging machine

Clinton should get a few extra points. Yeah that sounds about right, afterall she is a machine politician.

[jackson_dem]

8. Was Wisconsin rigged by Obamite Gov. Doyle?

The polls had Hill down 4-5 yet Obama found an extra 12-13% on election day. I did not see any complaints about it being rigged...

[Texas Hill Country]

9. and you dont think he is!!!!! he came out of South Side Chicago, you dont get more machine!!!

[gmudem]

17. He won against the machine

When he ran for State Senate I believe he beat other more establishment candidates. And I know for a fact in his U.S. Senate race he was a huge underdog going up against 2 other much more well known Dems, and won them by running a great campaign.

Sound familiar?

And FWIW, Hillary is from Chicago too.

[Texas Hill Country]

19. MY ASS! do you know how he won the state senate? HAHAHA

Damn, that laugh brought tears to my eyes

thank you, i needed that.

[ORDem]

6. Oh, I don't know about the "real will", most of these polls are off one way or another.

Hard to poll cell phones, lots of people screen callers, sometimes the sample is really small. You just have to pick up the general trend and not read them with much precision.

:dem:

[jackson_dem]

7. Only according to Obamites is going from a 2 point lead to -3 "closing in"

[tekisui]

11. You don't need to call names.

I see the closing in when I look at the trend. One day and one poll do not indicate shit. Several polls over the past two weeks show closing in.

[Auntie Bush]

10. Reminds me of what the polls said in NH.

Hmmmmmm...could they be wrong?

[tekisui]

12. Of course the could be. I doubt very much PA will look "exactly" like

any poll.

But, it adds weight to the trend, the trend towards Obama.

[Auntie Bush]

13. Actually I agree with you, but was the trend leading for Obama or Hillary

during the NH P?

[tekisui]

16. It trended towards Obama.

The polls of the last 3-5 days were useless, just like in CA. Hillary had a shrinking lead in NH, and ended very near the polling data of a week out. She had a lead of 10+ a month before. Obama trended and ended within 2.6.

Same with CA. A month out Hillary was up 15+, Obama trended and ended at 9.6 out.

OH, Clinton up 20+ a month out, Obama ends it back 10.

PA, Clinton was up 14 a month out. Obama is with 8%, now(on the average).

He has another week of movement that will still be useable. All the polls after the 17th or 18th will be useless. And we'll have a debate that could shift things in the last few days.

[Auntie Bush]

18. Thanks, that was useful information.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

14. He's not closing...

Based on the rolling average, Hillary extended her lead of the past 2-3 days. Now that lead could evaporate by this time tomorrow, but clearly the momentum as stalled, at least temporarily.

And April 22 is still almost two weeks away.

Stay tuned.

[Bucky]

15. Huh? Why are you focusing on McCain? Didn't you know the point is to tear up fellow Dems?