Pennsylvania, Part III

[FlyingSquirrel]

Previous PA threads:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=5362965
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=5260310

Short & Sweet:

Squirrelly prediction as of 3/25: Clinton 51.4%, Obama 46.6% - Delegates, 83 vs 75
Squirrelly prediction as of 4/2: Clinton 50.7%, Obama 47.3% - Delegates, 82 vs 76
Squirrelly prediction as of 4/8: Clinton 51.2%, Obama 46.8% - Delegates, 82-3 vs 75-6


Poll ................................. Date .............. # polled ...... Clinton ..... Obama ... Undecided .. Difference

Rasmussen ........................... 4/7/08 ....... 730 LV .......... 48 .......... 43 ............. 9 .......... 5
SurveyUSA ............................ 4/5-7/08 ...... 597 LV ........... 56 .......... 38 ........... 2 ........... 18
ARG ..................................... 4/5-6/08 ........ 600 LV .......... 45 .......... 45 ............ 6 ........... 0
Quinnipiac .......................... 4/3-6/08 ..... 1340 LV ........... 50 .......... 44 ........... 6 ........... 6
InsiderAdvantage .................... 4/2/08 ......... 659 LV .......... 45 .......... 42 ........... 12 .......... 3
Muhlenberg ........................ 3/27-4/2/08 ..... 406 LV ........... 51 ........... 41 ........... 6 ......... 10
PPP (D) ........................... 3/31-4/1/08 ..... 1224 LV ........... 43 .......... 45 .......... 13 .......... -2
Rasmussen ..................... 3/31/2008 ...... 730 LV ........... 47 .......... 42 .......... 11 .......... 5
SurveyUSA ........................ 3/29-31/08 ...... LV ................. 53 .......... 41 ........... 2 ........... 12
Quinnipiac ...................... 3/24-31/08 ..... 1549 RV ........... 50 .......... 41 ........... 8 ........... 9
ARG ................................ 3/26-27/08 ........ 600 LV .......... 51 .......... 39 ............ 8 ........... 12
Rasmussen ..................... 3/24/2008 ...... 697 LV ........... 49 .......... 39 .......... 12 .......... 10
PPP (D) ............................. 3/15-16/08 ..... 597 LV ........... 56 .......... 30 .......... 14 .......... 26
Franklin & Marshall College .... 3/11-16/08 ..... 294 LV ........... 51 .......... 35 .......... 13 .......... 16
Quinnipiac ...................... 3/10-16/08 ..... 1304 LV .......... 53 .......... 41 ........... 6 ........... 12
Rasmussen ..................... 3/12/2008 ...... 697 LV ........... 51 .......... 38 ........... 11 .......... 13
SurveyUSA ......................... 3/8-10/08 ...... 608 LV ........... 55 .......... 36 ........... 3 ........... 19
Susquehanna ...................... 3/5-10/08 ...... 500 RV ........... 45 .......... 31 ........... 19 .......... 14
Strategic Vision (R) ............. 3/7-9/08 ......... LV ............... 56 .......... 38 ............ 6 ........... 18
ARG .................................. 3/7-8/08 ........ 600 LV .......... 52 .......... 41 ............ 6 ........... 11
Rasmussen ...................... 3/5/2008 ....... 690 LV .......... 52 .......... 37 ............ 11 .......... 15

For trend purposes, still not liking SurveyUSA or ARG. I'm adding Quinnipac in though because they've been doing polls in PA for a very long time and they switched back to "Likely Voters", and their numbers haven't been widely diverging from each other. Plus they have a very large sample group and have been doing semi-regular polls.

Rasmussen is a change from 15% gap to 5% gap in nearly 5 weeks. Quinnipac is a change from 12% gap to 6% gap in 3 weeks. In both cases Obama closes the gap by 2% per week. This is a reduction from last week's analysis of 3% per week, and returns to the previous week's estimate of 2%.

Current Pollster graph:



Pollster averages it out to 50.5% for Clinton, 42.7% for Obama with two weeks to go.

If Obama continues to close the gap by 2%, using the above numbers, the final result could be:

Clinton 50.9%, Obama 47.1%, giving Clinton and Obama each 1/2 of the undecideds and allowing for a 2% "Other" vote.

To be safe, I'll give Clinton 56% of the undecideds (I gave her 65% last time but I think that was excessive)

Final: Clinton 51.2%, Obama 46.8%

In other words, nearly back to the original prediction from March 25. We're essentially looking at 51% to 47% in PA. The difference will be in how many undecideds Obama can pull in.

[BumRushDaShow]

1. I think it might be closer than that

particularly if any more "misspeaks" come from Clinton. Also if the unions are successful in making the Columbia/Penn connection a big story for the rank and file, that will bring it closer. This state, and particularly Philly, is a big union shop.

[AllentownJake]

2. Not to mention that you aren't capturing

The 250,000 newly registered democrats. No one knows who these people are therefore they can't be called for polling purposes. Since Obama did the bigger voter registration drive I'll make a bold assumption that 2-1 they are for Obama.

[FlyingSquirrel]

3. A valid point. nt

[Barack_America]

5. Yep. That's why I've been wondering where they get their call lists...

Are they just randomly calling people? Or are they calling registered voters?

[AllentownJake]

6. Likely democratic voters

i.e. they purchase the list of registered democrats from the party and their voting history. All that information is available for them. The newly registered info won't be available to the campaigns till the after the election...so if the democratic campaigns can't get it...I doubt the pollsters can.

[Barack_America]

8. Cool. I always wondered how they determined who was "likely".

Thanks for that info.

Yeah, knowing that, I'm not sure how much I trust these polls. On top of the new registrants, there are going to be lots of folks that haven't voted reliably who will come out for this election.

[Yael]

13. Interesting

I didn't know this either. Thanks! :hi:

[Zachstar]

4. I think things are going to be closer.

Don't get me wrong anything under 10 percent is GREAT! however, just too many things are going on that are swaying voters to Obama.

My guess is within 5 percent tho lets see what the polls say as we get closer.

[davidpdx]

7. I tend to agree with you Zach

and if the op's prediction is close that only nets her 6 delegates.

[Zachstar]

10. And that is nowhere near enough for a firewall state.

Clinton seriously will need to net around 30-50 delegates to be serious about getting the supers to switch.

Seeing as that will not happen now and Obama will easily erase that gain later on. Clinton's chances continue to fade.

[davidpdx]

14. Zach, correct

And to think Texas was suppose to be a firewall state. The battle cry was we need to win Ohio and Texas. Oophs!

[zulchzulu]

9. The Takeaway: Hillary would lose 20% poll lead and would gain only 7-8 delegates

I think Obama is going to win PA by 2-3%, but since the delegate count is where the nominee is produced in the primary season, Obama's 1,639 would get 75 to Clinton's 1,503 getting 82 or so. Clinton gains barely nothing.

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

11. Nice work... I think you're pretty close... ~5% eom

[Yael]

12. Big union stink here right now over the Penn "firing but not" ordeal

Teamsters pulling a road show.

Still 2 weeks to go....

[AtomicKitten]

15. Two weeks is a lifetime in politics.

Fingers crossed.

Hey, thanks for this great compilation of data and analysis. :hi:

[Honeycombe8]

16. A single digit loss? That's excellent for Obama (for PA). Schwing! nt