Not really a prediction, but something that could happen.

Drunken Irishman

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Mon Apr-07-08 02:20 PM
Original message

Not really a prediction, but something that could happen.

Edited on Mon Apr-07-08 02:22 PM by Drunken Irishman

We're now two weeks and a day until the Pennsylvania primary. In the past week, Obama went from trailing by double digits to either tying, or getting within striking distance of Clinton. Unlike Ohio, where Obama never really got closer than 5 points in any poll, there does seem to be a real trend here. Whether that trend is big enough to push Obama to victory probably won't be known until the final week, or even the day of the election. However, if there is a notable trend, like Wisconsin, where Obama opens up a lead, I think it's entirely possible Clinton bows out.

I think everyone can agree, whether you support Obama, Clinton or neither, if she does not win Pennsylvania, her campaign is over. She could probably barely get by if she wins Pennsylvania by a slim margin, but a loss there will do her in. She knows this, the media knows this, her campaign knows this and that's why I believe that if it appears she is going to go down to defeat in Pennsylvania, she will bow out to save herself the humiliation of a loss in a state that should have easily tilted her way.

When Rudy Giuliani lost Florida, he bowed out, even though he could have stayed until Super Tuesday. A big reason why he suspended his campaign was because New York was voting on Super Tuesday and he knew there was a good possibility he'd lose his own state. That's pretty tough for a candidate to accept and even though Pennsylvania is not Clinton's home state, it should be. It's her base, she has near universal support there from the major politicians and had a comfortable double digit lead when the focus shifted there. Losing, while in the race, would be disastrous and a painful blow for the Clinton campaign -- in fact, probably the most painful blow of her political career. That can be avoided if it appears she's headed for defeat there. If it looks like Obama may be pulling away in the final week leading up to the primary, I expect Clinton to announce she is ending her campaign for the better of the party. At that time, she will throw her support to Obama and urge her supporters to do the same.

Now like I said, this is not a prediction. I'm not saying Obama will win PA or even take the lead in most polls. However, it's possible and if Clinton does not look like she is going to win this, I don't think she stays in the race to see the bottom finally fall out. Under this scenario, she decides when to call it quits, instead of being forced out by a vote. Of course, we still have two weeks until the primary and anything can happen. There could be a Clinton surge which ends Obama's chances there in that state and if that's the case, I don't see how she drops out -- even if it's a slim 2-3 point victory like Texas. So the big question now is whether or not something can happen to stop Obama's momentum in the next two weeks. If it doesn't, I wouldn't be surprised if by next Monday Obama is leading in most PA polls and Clinton is slowly laying the foundation to leave the race.