Narberth, PA Obama canvassing report

[democrattotheend]

Cross-posted at http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/6/1389/06404/251/468596">DailyKos if anyone feels like recommending it there.

As promised, here is my latest canvassing report. I drove up from DC this morning and arrived at the Obama headquarters in Wynnewood, PA, right outside Philadelphia, around 2 PM.

They sent me to Narberth, which is in Montgomery County, less than 10 minutes from Philly. As I said in my previous post, I went to high school right around there, so I know the area pretty well. Most of the people I talked to today were white, upper-middle class, ages 30-55.

I wasn’t quite sure what to expect, especially after http://purplestatepundit.com/blog/election08/on-the-ground-in-the-philadelphia-suburbs/">getting not such great vibes at the ACME in Narberth 2 weeks ago when I was there doing voter registration (this was when the media was still playing Reverend Wright ad nauseum).

But I am pleased to report that of the people I talked to today, I identified 8 Obama supporters, 3 undecided, and only 1 Clinton supporter.

Unlike 2 weeks ago, I didn’t meet anyone who said they were a lifelong Dem who would vote for McCain if Obama was the nominee (though I met one woman who said a few of her friends might, because they did not trust Obama on Israel).

A few of the people I met were already volunteering, mostly through the Center City office in Philadelphia. One man who works in Center City said that he had several coworkers on the fence, and many of them had decided to vote for Obama after hearing his speech on race relations.

I met one woman who was undecided and said that she really wished she could vote for both of them. She said that the fact that she was even undecided now was a tribute to Obama, because she had initially been firmly in Hillary’s camp.

The campaign office said they had already identified 63% of the supporters they needed to identify in Lower and Upper Merion, and that they had gotten more volunteers today than they had expected, so they anticipated getting further ahead of the goal after today’s results were tallied.

I’m trying not to get my hopes up by even entertaining the notion that Obama could win Pennsylvania, but let’s just say today’s results are encouraging. It definitely feels like something has shifted over the past two weeks.

[Guava Jelly]

1. Thank you for the report

c'mon PA

[BumRushDaShow]

2. Thanks for the update!

Montgomery County, although admitting they are still counting the registrations, announced that so far, for the first time in 100 years, Democrat registrations are outnumbering Republican registrations. So if anything, the solid Red-and-recently-turned-Purple Montgomery County is now closer to being Blue!

http://www.philly.com/inquirer/world_us/20080406_A_first__Registered_Democrats_outnumber_Republicans_in_Montgomery_County.html

:thumbsup:

[Maureen1322]

3. I live in Delco and

I've had one phone call asking about Barack and yesterday I had 2 people at my door asking the same questions. I am a Hillary supporter, but I really admire the way Obama is running his campaign.

[PA Democrat]

4. Thanks for the report, and thanks for volunteering.

I am impressed with how well-organized the Obama campaign has been here in western PA. Back in 2004, PA was not in play for the primary, so there was really no organization yet established for the general election. I volunteered for the Kerry campaign, and at the beginning of September we had only a handful of volunteers and spent the first month calling lists of potential volunteers to get our phone banking and canvassing efforts going.

There is a huge advantage to having a primary election that is meaningful in PA, in that we will have an organizational structure well-established for the general election.

[democrattotheend]

14. What's your sense there?

Who do most of the people you know support? Have you done any canvassing? If so please report!

[RBInMaine]

5. If trends continue, he should be able to get CLOSE, which is great.

He should be able to get inside 10%. As close as 5% would be AWESOME. Like Ohio, Hillary simply has much more establishment machine help (i.e. the very popular Gov., the Philly mayor, Murtha, etc.). The Clintons have long-standing connections to PA cultivated over the decades. Huge demographics advantages. This is how politics works. Obama has had to make up a lot of ground. he's doing very well, and making the Clintons spend a lot of time and money on ground that should be a cakewalk for them. IF by chance he were to upset them in PA by a single vote, it's OVER !!

[AllentownJake]

6. Thank you

So much for helping us in PA. We are working hard up here. This is not going to be the blow-out everyone in the MSM was projecting.

Give Obama 6 weeks to campaign in a state....good things happen

[flpoljunkie]

7. Thanks for your report and for your work in PA.

[JimGinPA]

8. I Been Canvassing In Central PA...

The thing that kind of surprises me is the number of people who offer to volunteer for the campaign when you talk to them.

K&R

[starroute]

9. I've got an anecdote for you

A friend of ours went to hear Obama speak in Allentown last week. He was able to get a ticket because he knows someone with political connections. This other person also attended the speech and -- according to our friend -- his acquaintance went in a Clinton supporter and by the time he came out he was turning into an Obama supporter.

Nice.

On the other hand, my husband was just flipping around among the Sunday news shows and passed John McLaughlin saying that Hillary "might just pull out a win" in Pennsylvania, and if she does she'll have gotten back the "Big Mo." Is there anything these people won't say?

[AllentownJake]

11. Just so there are no misconceptions

We gave out over 2000 tickets to the event in Allentown. A majority of those were to the general public. Some tickets were set aside for Volunteer coordinators so that they could reward people that have given back to the campaign and so that they could be out canvasing instead of in line. Just so people know a majority of tickets went to the General Public. I know I was at the Allentown office working the ticket distribution.

[WinkyDink]

17. And I was one of the Great Unwashed who got a ticket just by standing in line for one.

[starroute]

22. Sorry, I didn't mean to imply there were no general tickets available

Our friend was able to get one at the very last moment because somebody who had one was unable to use it, and he knew someone who was able to transfer it. That was the only extent to which having a connection came into play. I never intended to suggest that the tickets were not generally available to the public.

[AllentownJake]

23. No Problem

We had some people mad because when Bill came they didn't do tickets they just opened up the doors and let people in. Of course when they did that people stood in line and didn't get in.

[democrattotheend]

13. Clinton "just might pull out a win?"

You've got to be kidding me! She is expected to win, and win big. She's got all the institutional advantages and has been leading in every poll except one outlier. I really hope the CW about PA is not changing. I am going to be very nervous if Obama starts leading in more polls.

[mamalone]

21. Seriously!

Just days ago they were saying if she didn't win it by *double digits* it would be practically a loss.... sheeesh. The truth is that if Obama even comes close to beating Hillary it will be a magnificent victory for him!

[Adelante]

10. Thank you for the report

And for your hard work. :)

[stillcool]

12. Thank you! I know it's all about..

winning and losing, but it is stories like yours that remind me it really is about so much more..this time.

[PCIntern]

15. I live less than a mile from the Acme and

work one block from the HQ in Center City.

You're assessment is spot-on.

[democrattotheend]

16. Have you done any volunteering?

If so, what's your sense?

[PCIntern]

18. Yes...

let me tell you what I do every election cycle:

I practice dentistry in Center City and I heavily lobby my patients, spending much time with them, not to convert them if they're recalcitrant Rethugs - that's not what they're there for - but to entreat all to get their families and friends registered, to get people to the polls, to stress the importance of the election, etc. The amount of time I spend doing this is unbelievable and my staff is always both impressed with the amount of chairtime which I donate to the cause and also mad b/c I tend to run behind at these times. I also interact with many politicos who are patients and discuss issues involving healthcare implementation and the like.

My sense is that Obama's gaining among the white working-class who, 3 months ago, were very very suspicious of this "Black Guy". What amazes me no end, and I've posted this before, is the number of lifelong Dems who've come in stating that they hate Hillary. In 30+ years of practice, I've never heard Dems talk about any other Dem that way...not even Jesse Jackson years ago. Not to my face at least.

this is going to be really contentious here...my guess is that it's going to narrow to small single digits but the 22nd.

On edit: I'm pretty well-known among my clientele as the 'political dentist' - I was fortunate enough to be invited by one to a private dinner with Ambassador Wilson while he was touring...a night a reported on in my Journal here. Others have invited me to fundraisers to talk to their group about how the docs and dentists may be approached and what their interests are. It's been an interesting career.

[fight4my3sons]

19. thank you for your report and all of your hard work

[WillyT]

20. Thank You For The Report !!! - K & R !!!

:yourock: