Poll Watch: The Nader Effect

[WilliamPitt]

Gasoline on the pyre...

Poll Watch: The Nader Effect

http://www.dontvoteralph.net/pollwatch.htm

Ralph Nader claims he will help defeat George Bush by pulling votes of Bush supporters and mobilizing Democrats. This study of every available poll shows that Nader’s assertion is clearly untrue.

Ralph Nader asserts at essentially every campaign appearance that this time around, he’ll help defeat George Bush. It’s easy to see why he’s adopted this remarkable position: he has little choice. The fury at Bush among Nader’s natural constituency requires him to assume such a stand. After all, what progressive would support helping re-elect George Bush?

But this raises a vital question: is Nader’s claim true?

We answered this question by completing a comprehensive study of every poll that measures Bush/Kerry head-to-head and Bush/Kerry/Nader in a three-way race. Through May 14, there have been 37 such polls taken since Nader declared his 2004 candidacy. Using the authoritative, non-partisan website www.PollingReport.com, plus all other polls found through a search at Google, the results are conclusive.

Of the 37 polls reviewed, 32 show Nader hurting Kerry, 4 show no effect, and 1 shows Nader hurting Bush (and that by a scant 1%).

The table at right, “How Much Nader Helps Bush,” shows all 37 polls, and for each how much Bush gains in his margin vs. Kerry when Nader is included. While the percentage swings to Bush are all single-digit, the consensus is overwhelming, directly discrediting Nader’s claims.

...more...

[NMDemDist2]

1. this should be no surprise Will eom

[robbedvoter]

2. Same as in 2000, same as Perot (myth to the contrary notwithstanding)

The good news? Only 1% of those responders are crazy enough to actually vote for Nader. Most of them are just "making statements" - which is OK to make in polls - but not in the voting booth.

[AP]

3. Most academics, I believe, say it's hard to tell from head to head polling

if the third party has an effect. If Nader isn't running, many people who say they'd vote for, for eg, Kerry in the head to head with Bush might actually not show up to the polls if Nader wasn't in the race.

[salonghorn70]

4. This Should Be Required Reading

Overall, I think Nadar will get less votes than 2000. But even if he is down to 1%, then that could make a difference in a very, very close election.

[The Magistrate]

5. Indeed, Mr. Pitt

This is one of those studies, like a demonstration people are more cheerful on sunny days, that hardly needs to be done.

Wrecker Nader knows his claim he will draw Republican votes is a lie, just has he knew his claim there was no difference worth mentioning between the candidates in 2000 was a lie. Basing his campaign on such lies shows clearly the truth about him; that far from being an "honest anti-politician", he is in fact a creature of mendacity sufficient to give any professional pol instruction in the art.

Any who declare support for this wretch must face the fact that by doing so, they are acting in support of the worst elements of reaction in our polity, for it is only these that will benefit by the diversion of left votes in any number to Wrecker Nader from Sen. Kerry.

The only bright spot in the matter is that it is overwhelmingly likely that very few persons will actually be so foolish as to cast ballots for this objective ally of the criminals of the '00 Coup this fall. It would surprise me very much if he gets more than half a percent of the total....

"An election differs from a civil war only as the bloodless surrender of a force outnumbered in the field differs from Waterloo."

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"

[mzmolly]

6. Thanks for the link. Powerful information.

We have to deal with Nader this time. Dems need a 527 showing his hypocrisy - running ads and the like.

Here is a start.

http://realchange.org/nader.htm

[AP]

8. I don't think Nader is going to be on the ballot in swing states.

I'd bet money on that.

I think he'll decline the Reform party nomination which would get him on the ballot in a bunch of those states.

The only state he really wants to be on the ballot in is Texas. Do you wonder why?

[mzmolly]

9. I hope not...

;)

[WilliamPitt]

10. He's already on in Florida and Michigan (I think)

thanks to the hekp of the Reform Party. They gave him a big boost with their infrastructure.

[AP]

11. He has to accept their nomination first, and he hasn't last I heard.

He said that it's important for him to run as an Independant and he thinks accepting their nomination sends the wrong message.

[WilliamPitt]

12. Regardless, they lent him their infrastructure

You get onto state ballots one way: By having people on the ground with clipboards, collecting signatures. Nader didn't have that on his own; the Reform Party gave it to him, enough to get him signatures he needs in key places. They endorsed him. He doesn't have to accept their nomination to use their people.

[AP]

14. Use their people to do what?

If he's not on the ballot, what are they going to do? If the endorsement would get him on the ballot automatically, and he declines it, are Reform Party members really going to stand around with clipboards collecting signatures when they know they don't have to?

Like I said, the only state where Nader seems to care to get on the ballot is TX, and he probably knows he's tilting at a windmill there.

His big thing is ballot access, and he's probably just trying to get a few legal precendents so that future third parties can take baby steps forward in a state in which TX Democrats seem to be going backwards.

That's a problem?

[WilliamPitt]

15. Um...

He's going to use their people to get on the ballot in the first place. In order to be on a state ballot, a certain number of citizens have to sign a petition putting him on the ballot. If enough signatures are collected, the candidate is on the ballot. That is the only way to get on a ballot if you do not currently hold office.

Nader wasn't going to get those signatures on his own. The Reform Party can give him people to collect signatures and get him on state ballots.

This is pretty much a repeat of my ladt post, btw.

[AP]

18. The nomination IF ACCEPTED gets him on the ballot in a bunch of states.

He's probably going to decline it.

So you think party members are going to bust their asses in other states to get him on the ballot when he's snubbed the party nomination?

I'll believe it when I see it.

They are certainly not going to stand on street corners for him in states where the nomination would get him on the ballot, and, IIRC, that included a bunch of battleground states. That's the definition of wasting your time.

Furthermore, I HIGHLY doubt Reform party members are going to bust asses getting people to put their signatures on a Nader petition that doesn't say "REFORM PARTY" on the line labled "Party Affiliation." Why in the world would a person interested in furthering the interests of the Reform Party spend an afternoon collecting signatures for a guy who has said that being endorsed by a party goes against the philosophy of his campaign?

So that, in my mind rules out (1) all the states where the nomination would have gotten him on the ballot had he accepted it and (2) every other state.

(And, btw, that's repeating a lot of stuff I've already said.)

[mzmolly]

7. Will, Truth out might be a good avenue for exposing Nader?

;)

[sangh0]

13. Funny how none of the Nader supporters

are posting in this thread.

:shrug:

[John_H]

16. The only person on earth I've heard say Nader help Kerry is...

you guessed it, union busting Ralph himself.

There it is in black and white folks: air tight evidence of just how severe Ralph's narcissistic delusions have become, how rapidly his psychosis is progressing.

Oh wait. You're right. He could just be a cynical liar.

[mzmolly]

19. Great Post John!

air tight evidence of just how severe Ralph's narcissistic delusions have become, how rapidly his psychosis is progressing.

Indeed!

:kick:

[AP]

20. Add me to the list.

I think Nader is going to help Kerry this year.

[GOPBasher]

17. I think Arianna Huffington said it best:

"When your house is on fire, you don't call a decorator; you call a fireman."