I'm beginning to think that Nov. will be an anti-Bush landslide

[IrateCitizen]

The press is still trying to maintain "objectivity" WRT the upcoming election, and glossing over many of Bush's negatives. But how many DUers have posted here about conversations with Republican friends and family members who have said that there is no way they are voting for Bush this year? Enough to make me believe that Bush can't even rely on a significant part of his base -- let alone moderate unaffiliated voters.

Also, I caught a piece of the Chris Matthews Show yesterday morning. I don't usually watch, but I was flipping channels while eating breakfast. He had several "mainstream" journalists and pundits on his panel, including Howard Fineman. Fineman said something to the effect of Bush rapidly losing "credibility" on Iraq, and that this speaking tour beginning tonight was an attempt to regain it. He said directly that unless he is able to regain credibility WRT Iraq, there is NO WAY HE WILL WIN.

Considering of the line that we have come to expect from Establishment journalism, I believe such statements to be HUGE. For these "mainstream" journalists, concerned primarily with shaping the "conventional wisdom" of the day to even allude to the idea that Bush has lost credibility and will lose in November, I think that it is just the tip of the iceberg. Things out there are much worse than they appear for Bush.

I think that he may actually go down to a significant electoral defeat this November.

[jay-3d]

1. tell that to my mountain bike club

My local mountain bike club seems to becoming more and more pro bush.

http://66.221.157.59/ubb/Forum1/HTML/019103.html

[meegbear]

4. Remind you local mountain bike club ...

the guy can't even ride a mountain bike without falling down.

[Gildor Inglorion]

2. I wish I shared your confidence, and desperately hope you're right...

but I'm terribly afraid that there are just too many single-issue voters out there who don't give a flip about Iraq or anything else except their own agenda. They will vote for * because he's against gay marriage, abortion or __________ (fill in the blank). Nothing else matters to them.

[freetobegay]

3. Bush needs to be feared in November.

For the shit that they can pull. I & I hope everyoneelse will be on their toes come this November!

[mistertrickster]

5. I think you're right . . . I don't know of anybody who voted for Gore

last time that wants Bush this time, but I know several people who are not going to vote for Bush a second time.

If only, say, 5 percent of formerly Bush voters vote for Kerry, they not only take a vote away from Bush, but they add a vote for Kerry, so that's a 10 percent increase for Kerry.

That equals landslide.

******

Bush made a huge mistake invading Iraq so early. He should have gone in now, so that the horrible effects of his poorly thought out occupation would not be obviously transparent before the election.

Thank heavens for Team Bush's arrogant ignorance of and disregard for history. If these people were educated, they could really be dangerous--that is, more successful at the evil they do.

[Nicholas_J]

15. A site done by a Republican mathematician

by a guy who supports Bush has Kerry winning with:

Current Tally - 05/15/04

2000 Adjustment: Bush -2.39%

EV's: Bush 211, Kerry 327

Pct: Bush 45.48%, Kerry 52.69%

http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html

If you read his methodology, it is quite impressive.

[Mountainman]

6. I'm thinking that Bush will get a bounce soon

For some darn reason I feel that Bush's numbers are going to go above 50 again. I think that coverage of Iraq will get vetted and only news that makes Bush seem to be in charge will be aired.

I just don't think Rove is going to lay down and play dead. We may be to early to predict the outcome.

[RummyTheDummy]

14. Rove may not be a factor

We build him up to be some super human figure. But at some point realistically his ability to manage what amounts to a horrible canidate for dog catcher let alone president has to come into question. It's the old saying: You can't polish a terd.

At this point I'm not convinced there's a whole lot Rove can do for Bush aside from coming up with a pic of Kerry molesting a collie.

[Cheswick2.0]

20. Rove couldn't even win the election in 2000

He is not that powerful. The reason bush took office was because of his daddy calling in some favors, not the least of which was cheating in florida by his younger smarter brother.

[beyurslf]

7. I think we hope for a landslide and work like it is razor close.

never let up or we will get caught off guard.

[charlie105]

8. I think you are right. I used to feel that we had a snowflake's

chance in hell when this thing started with Kerry being the nominee. I tried pretty hard to feel excited about him but he just does not incite that in me. But the more I see this admin shooting itself in the foot and Kerry's 'presidential' (non-)response to events unfavorable to Bush, the better I feel about our chances in Nov. I have personally witnessed the transformation of two of my co-workers who were solid pro-Bush. One of them is so irate at Bush giving the Republicans and Conservatives such a bad name that he may actually vote for Kerry. The other is just going to sit this one out.

Although I have seen similar sentiments from other people that I know, the common course of action they contemplate on is not going to the polls at all. That's good enough.

If, after spending $120 million on creating a positive image of himself while bashing Kerry, all Bush could garner is a 41% approval rating (latest CBSNews Poll), then his prospects are not too bright. A far cry from Oxycontin boy predicting a 49-state landslide for Bush (albeit when Dean was the front-runner).

It's gonna happen folks. I don't consider myslef an optimist by any stretch of the imagination but that's my gut feeling. An I have a lot of it!

[Kahuna]

13. Kerry impresses me more and more everyday. I gotta give it to him..

If he pulls this off, he will be my lifelong hero. :loveya:

[IrateCitizen]

18. To be quite honest, Kerry doesn't impress me a whole lot

I find him to be the "unpalatable" choice between "unpalatable and disastrous". Of course, when confronted with such a choice, I will choose unpalatable every time.

Many of the other Democrats and liberally-minded independents I speak to have the same feeling. They aren't very enthusiastic about Kerry. They just see Bush as being such an unmitigated disaster that they would vote for Toonces the Driving Cat over Bush.

The only way I can see that Kerry would be my lifelong hero would be if he not only pulled us out of Iraq, but began to seriously dismantle the empire of bases we have throughout the world along with the power of the military-industrial complex. However, I'm not holding my breath for the last two -- nor do I really believe that just one person is capable of doing it.

[Demoin04]

23. somewhere it was written.

Somewhere I read, kerry isn't playing the amiable card because he doesn't have to. You don't have to like him, you don't have to think he'd be like a good buddy. If you really look at his record and not what the GOP says it is, I've found that I start to gather my own sense of enthusiasm. Convincing myself that he'd do a pretty damn good job in the white house. The truth is kerry is a very capable person to be in the white house, and it has little to do with how likeable he is as a person.. he's no asshole just kind of plain in the character department

[sangh0]

9. I agree so much, I'm going to make a prediction

Numerous DUer's will soon be saying "Kerry has no support. It's all ABB, not pro-Kerry"

[tom_paine]

10. Depends on how muffled the Voice of the People is...

We KNOW how hard the Busheviks have been working, on multiple fronts, to parasitize and destroy the "immune system" of the Old American Republic.

Extreme Gerrymandering, Diebold, Phony Felon Purges...and so much more.

We'll see. Things are much worse than anyone has ever seen during their lifetimes...the damages to the System make it much worse than even McCarthyism, IMHO.

Is it even possible for the Voice of the People to be heard anymore in Imperial Amerika?

Stay tuned...

[blm]

11. No doubt about it.

Of course, I've expected it since Jan. 2001. I never thought the American people would stick with Bush once they got to know more about him and the circle of cronies he nurtures.

[Kahuna]

12. When bush loses let's gather in D.C. to celebrate. Let's..

surround the WH, burn him in effigy and chant, 'get out of Al Gore's House.' :evilgrin:

[Armstead]

16. It's all going to be events

From what I can gather, here is what Bush is counting on. They are now circulating a new message about "victory" in Iraq. They are lowering the bar, and are going to claim victory regardless because Sadaam is out and we will have handed over power. As for the WMD's, there will eitehr be a "surprise" discovery, or else at the very least they will claim that we have elimninated the threat.

Bob Woodward said that is how they will spin it, and I believe he is correct.

They may get away with this crap, if things calm down even slightly in Iraq. No matter how bad thgings really may be there, if it's out of sight, out of mind -- as has happened with Afghanistan (remember there?) -- Bush may be able to at least stall the slide.

They also will cite the economic recovery, unless disaster hits there too. At some point, the media's copnventional wisdom may use the somewhat improving numbers to gloss over the deep fundamental problems that exist.

All that is one reason we should not merely count on ABB as a factor. Kerry's got to do something positive and bold enough to set the debate on his terms, not just on events.

[Armstead]

17. It's all going to be events

From what I can gather, here is what Bush is counting on. They are now circulating a new message about "victory" in Iraq. They are lowering the bar, and are going to claim victory regardless because Sadaam is out and we will have handed over power. As for the WMD's, there will eitehr be a "surprise" discovery, or else at the very least they will claim that we have elimninated the threat.

Bob Woodward said that is how they will spin it, and I believe he is correct.

They may get away with this crap, if things calm down even slightly in Iraq. No matter how bad thgings really may be there, if it's out of sight, out of mind -- as has happened with Afghanistan (remember there?) -- Bush may be able to at least stall the slide.

They also will cite the economic recovery, unless disaster hits there too. At some point, the media's copnventional wisdom may use the somewhat improving numbers to gloss over the deep fundamental problems that exist.

All that is one reason we should not merely count on ABB as a factor. Kerry's got to do something positive and bold enough to set the debate on his terms, not just on events.

[WVhill]

19. I'm thinking along the same lines.

The October surprise may develop from info supposedly gained from Libya and interrogating Saddam. If I was to guess, I'd say the Bush camp will disclose that the Arab community was close to developing a nuclear weapon at an underground location in Libya that was overseen by Iraqi scientists on Saddam's payroll. Bush will claim to be the saviour of Western civilization by invading Iraq to stop the flow of money and negotiating Libya's agreement to give up the nuke program.

We still haven't heard about everything that was shipped out of Libya other than it was shiploads of stuff.

[zulchzulu]

21. Chimpy may only take Texas and Utah

Even Texas is in play. What I want to see is 1994 again except where it's the Democrats that clean house, no pun intended.

[bushwakker]

22. Bush is still a heavy favorite

Until someone else takes the oath in Jan 2005. I don't like to hear such confident talk - it's bad luck. Many rocky days ahead.

[Demoin04]

24. lets not get ahead of ourselves

I'm seeing so much action in the dems camp that I've never seen before. The efforts of people at all levels has been enormous,, they do deserve a pat on the back. But I'm sure they'll tell you "thanks" but that it's still a long road until november and no time to rest just yet.

Dems in the House!
Dems in the Senate!
Dems in WH!

[Dinger]

25. I Agree, and i Wonder How Idiot Boy Will Handle Defeat?

I think, he'll end up some "residential facility" wearing diapers, and eating strained foods through a strw. Sound good to you?

[salonghorn70]

26. I Have Been Thinking The Election Would Be Close

But I do agree that now I see a possibility that it might be a more comfortable win for Kerry.